1. #1
    THE_LOCKSMITH
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    UFC Fight Night: Werdum vs. Volkov (March 17, 2018)



    UFC Fight Pass 5:00 pm ET
    Fabricio Werdum vs Alexander Volkov
    Jan Blachowicz vs Jimi Manuwa
    Tom Duquesnoy vs Terrion Ware
    Leon Edwards vs Peter Sobotta

    UFC Fight Pass 1:45 pm ET
    Charles Byrd vs John Phillips
    Oliver Enkamp vs Danny Roberts
    Jack Marshman vs Bradley Scott
    Hakeem Dawodu vs Danny Henry
    Magomed Ankalaev vs Paul Craig
    Mark Godbeer vs Dmitry Poberezhets
    Nasrat Haqparast vs Alex Reyes
    Kajan Johnson vs Stevie Ray

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  2. #2
    Thrilla
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  3. #3
    Hugo de Naranja
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    I'm pretty excited to see John Philips finally making his UFC Debut.

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  4. #4
    turbozed
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    Quote Originally Posted by Hugo de Naranja View Post
    I'm pretty excited to see John Philips finally making his UFC Debut.
    Lots of exciting debutantes on this card. Ankalaev and Dawodu too.

  5. #5
    Thrilla
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    Jimi Manuwa training with Gustafsson after he lost his fight to him.

    Similar to Apollo Creed and Rocky Balboa in Rocky III.



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  6. #6
    Sanity Check
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    Quote Originally Posted by Thrilla View Post
    Jimi Manuwa training with Gustafsson after he lost his fight to him.

    Similar to Apollo Creed and Rocky Balboa in Rocky III.



    Gustafsson trained with Phil Davis after losing to him too back in the day.

    Wow. Record check says that was back in 2010. My how time flies.

  7. #7
    TPowell
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    My breakdowns of Reyes and his opponent

    Reyes: Solid grappler with decent takedowns and decent subs/aggressive GnP, wears guys down with top pressure and pace for late finishes, too content to fight with back to the cage but moves and counters well, throws heavy leg kicks, decent chin for LW, solid athlete with good speed on the feet and great cardio

    Nasrat:
    Throws with a lot of variety and moves well on the feet, solid power always throws with it, average at best TDD but very aggressive and powerful wrestler with GnP when able to, struggles badly when pressured on the feet, smart fighter, good cardio and able to mantain a grappling heavy attack for 3 rounds

  8. #8
    TPowell
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    I think Nasrat will have a tough time catching the quicker Reyes with those powerful punches he loves to throw. Reyes has a pretty solid chin as well. I like the gas tanks of both guys. Reyes has multiple 4th round finishes and Nasrat dominated a guy on the ground for 10+ minutes and unleashed a ton of heavy GnP without gassing himself out in the process. I feel like Reyes is probably the better fighter overall by a little bit and I would expect him to be a decent favorite. I think the OVER could be a decent play here. Both guys have a lot of finishes but both seem very durable. Will depend on lines for me.

  9. #9
    Sanity Check
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    10 days to this event.

    Think I might resurrect and expand a small MMA site I had years ago.

    I own the domain keyboardwarrior.pro (apt name for an MMA site?)

    Maybe I should do something with it.

  10. #10
    TPowell
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    Quote Originally Posted by Sanity Check View Post
    10 days to this event.

    Think I might resurrect and expand a small MMA site I had years ago.

    I own the domain keyboardwarrior.pro (apt name for an MMA site?)

    Maybe I should do something with it.

    That would be interesting. I plan on potentially doing another 1-2 writeups like last weeks Johnson/Milstead one for this event.

  11. #11
    TPowell
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    Kajan Johnson fought a really interesting fight against Martins sticking and moving and never coming forward. I think with the lack of pure power between Johnson and Ray, we'll be hard pressed to see a finish unless something crazy lands on the feet. Ray is obviously the more technical fighter but Kajan moves so well and will have 5 inches of reach on him. I think Kajan has the definite edge in the wrestling/ground game department as well. I'm thinking we'll see Kajan as a decent dog (+150 or so) but I'm not sure I want to play it. I'll probably wait and see what the total looks like because if its priced decent, I'll just play the OVER and hedge it with something I like.

  12. #12
    Teem
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    Yes, do more write ups if you have the time please!

  13. #13
    turbozed
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    Looks like the Reyes/Haqparast bout is going to be cancelled with Reyes pulling out....

  14. #14
    Teem
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    For those of you that use Tapology, is there anywhere on the site that you can see details about a fighter's past fights? With things such as their striking and grappling percentages. As well as how many strikes, takedowns, sub attempts, etc. in those past fights? Pretty much how you can see those things on UFC's site when checking out a fighter. On Tapology I'm only finding their fighter info and what they win by in their past fights, who it's against, etc... Or am I stuck to finding that more detailed info on UFC's site? Thanks!

  15. #15
    HurlSweatPants
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    Quote Originally Posted by Teem View Post
    For those of you that use Tapology, is there anywhere on the site that you can see details about a fighter's past fights? With things such as their striking and grappling percentages. As well as how many strikes, takedowns, sub attempts, etc. in those past fights? Pretty much how you can see those things on UFC's site when checking out a fighter. On Tapology I'm only finding their fighter info and what they win by in their past fights, who it's against, etc... Or am I stuck to finding that more detailed info on UFC's site? Thanks!
    Fightmetric.com is not too bad if you are looking for a pretty easy to read stats on fighters.
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  16. #16
    Richard Clock
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    Quote Originally Posted by HurlSweatPants View Post
    Fightmetric.com is not too bad if you are looking for a pretty easy to read stats on fighters.
    I have taken a quick glance at some of the fighter stats on the UFC website, but I never really found this type of analysis useful. I tend to think these stats are arbitrary and don't lead to any conclusions you wouldn't have been able to draw had you watched the fight. I am sure there are smarter people than I that would be able able to more effectively compile, analyze the data into something useful.

  17. #17
    Sanity Check
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    Quote Originally Posted by HurlSweatPants View Post
    Fightmetric.com is not too bad if you are looking for a pretty easy to read stats on fighters.
    http://cagerank.com had potential.

    Too bad it hasn't been updated in 5 years.

  18. #18
    Shagdogy
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    Quote Originally Posted by TPowell View Post
    I think Nasrat will have a tough time catching the quicker Reyes with those powerful punches he loves to throw. Reyes has a pretty solid chin as well. I like the gas tanks of both guys. Reyes has multiple 4th round finishes and Nasrat dominated a guy on the ground for 10+ minutes and unleashed a ton of heavy GnP without gassing himself out in the process. I feel like Reyes is probably the better fighter overall by a little bit and I would expect him to be a decent favorite. I think the OVER could be a decent play here. Both guys have a lot of finishes but both seem very durable. Will depend on lines for me.
    I was ready play Nasrat comfortably. Not a big play but avg sized. Sad that fight is scrapped. Was gonna be a good matchup.

  19. #19
    Shagdogy
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    Quote Originally Posted by turbozed View Post
    Lots of exciting debutantes on this card. Ankalaev and Dawodu too.
    Speaking of Ankalaev... have any of Kadyrov's Chechen fighters lost their UFC debuts? I can't think of it. Ramazan Emeev won. Magomed Bibulatov won. Abdul Karim-Edilov... Mairbek Taisumov... I'm sure I'm missing some, but I can't think of a debut loss by any of them.

  20. #20
    turbozed
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    Quote Originally Posted by Shagdogy View Post
    Speaking of Ankalaev... have any of Kadyrov's Chechen fighters lost their UFC debuts? I can't think of it. Ramazan Emeev won. Magomed Bibulatov won. Abdul Karim-Edilov... Mairbek Taisumov... I'm sure I'm missing some, but I can't think of a debut loss by any of them.
    Ankalaev is part of that Kadyrov crew? Ahh that's a shame. I was prepared to like him.

  21. #21
    Shagdogy
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    Quote Originally Posted by turbozed View Post
    Ankalaev is part of that Kadyrov crew? Ahh that's a shame. I was prepared to like him.
    I mean... we can still make money off them right? I feel like these guys are in must win situations in their debuts. I would hate to be the Chechen fighter with a 2 fight contract who goes 0-2 and gets cut. Not sure what the line will be but I'm comfortable fading Craig and playing Ankalaev within reason. He seems to have a lot of GnP power which could be bad news for Craig.

  22. #22
    Shagdogy
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    Quote Originally Posted by turbozed View Post
    Lots of exciting debutantes on this card. Ankalaev and Dawodu too.
    Can Dawodu knock Danny Henry out? I (and I believe many others) lost some money thanks to the chin of Danny Henry when he ate a million and one power shots from Teymur until he gassed out. Now they feed him Dawodu to see if he can do it again.

  23. #23
    turbozed
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    Quote Originally Posted by Shagdogy View Post
    Can Dawodu knock Danny Henry out? I (and I believe many others) lost some money thanks to the chin of Danny Henry when he ate a million and one power shots from Teymur until he gassed out. Now they feed him Dawodu to see if he can do it again.
    It seemed like Teymur gassing halfway through the fight had less to do with what Henry was doing but Teymur going balls out and having bad cardio. When I first saw Dawodu fight, what popped in my head is "this guy looks like a Thai who has fought like 50 times." After doing research it turns out that he has had more than 50 MT fights spread through amateur and pro bouts. I think he'll be okay with cardio and pacing. Striking and clinching I don't think he'll have any problems.

    The big question is how he'll fare on the ground. He's been able to pop up with explosions to get back up. But if Henry can turn the fight into chain wrestling and scrambling on the ground, I'd imagine Dawodu wouldn't be too comfortable there. It's always hard to bet against a dude with an iron chin that always keeps coming with pressure. Athletic strikers like Dawodu also are always juiced despite grappling concerns. When it comes to archetypes, this has the hallmarks of plodding unathletic dude breaking down the flashy striker. Still, I can't ignore how pleasing and technical Dawodu's muay thai style is. It may be the most unfiltered version we've seen in the UFC.

  24. #24
    Slevin07
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    Odds are lower for Werdum then I would have originally thought. Anyone can lose, especially at heavyweight but I think Werdum wins this 9/10 times. Going off Volkov and nelson/struve fights. Am I missing something here?

    - Got it in some parlays. One of them being with Khabib and winner of nba championship coming from western conference. Another with Khabib and Barboza.

  25. #25
    Richard Clock
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    Quote Originally Posted by Slevin07 View Post
    Odds are lower for Werdum then I would have originally thought. Anyone can lose, especially at heavyweight but I think Werdum wins this 9/10 times. Going off Volkov and nelson/struve fights. Am I missing something here?

    - Got it in some parlays. One of them being with Khabib and winner of nba championship coming from western conference. Another with Khabib and Barboza.
    I think there is a decent case to be made for Volkov, maybe not enough to play him on the ML, but I can still see the rationale: Volkov with the reach advantage and better striking technique. Werdum has the clear advantage on ground, but Volkov has improved TDD and Werdum may struggle to get consistent takedowns on the longer frame of Volkov. The Vick/Trinaldo fight elucidated the idea that longer-limbed fighters that have good good grappling technique require a lot more effort to take down and keep there than others. I am curious as to what the Werdum backers think is Werdum's consistent pathway to victory that justifies the current line.

  26. #26
    Shagdogy
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    Quote Originally Posted by turbozed View Post
    It seemed like Teymur gassing halfway through the fight had less to do with what Henry was doing but Teymur going balls out and having bad cardio. When I first saw Dawodu fight, what popped in my head is "this guy looks like a Thai who has fought like 50 times." After doing research it turns out that he has had more than 50 MT fights spread through amateur and pro bouts. I think he'll be okay with cardio and pacing. Striking and clinching I don't think he'll have any problems.

    The big question is how he'll fare on the ground. He's been able to pop up with explosions to get back up. But if Henry can turn the fight into chain wrestling and scrambling on the ground, I'd imagine Dawodu wouldn't be too comfortable there. It's always hard to bet against a dude with an iron chin that always keeps coming with pressure. Athletic strikers like Dawodu also are always juiced despite grappling concerns. When it comes to archetypes, this has the hallmarks of plodding unathletic dude breaking down the flashy striker. Still, I can't ignore how pleasing and technical Dawodu's muay thai style is. It may be the most unfiltered version we've seen in the UFC.
    I pretty much agree with your assessment. I guess what I was getting at without explaining it so well, is if Dawodu can't KO Henry early, then can he withstand the nonstop pressure, including TD attempts, that Henry will bring? Henry's fight style isn't pretty - his striking from range is pretty damn ugly - but you know that to beat him you will have to earn it.

    A good sign for Dawodu is that he's not all 1st round KO's. He has KO wins in rounds 1, 2, and 3, as well as a decision win, so if he's able to stuff TDs and has the cardio to withstand Henry's pressure, then I can see him winning a late stoppage, but more likely a decision.

    To cap this fight, you have to ask yourself if Dawodu will be able to sprawl and [technical] brawl, and get more done with it than any amount of time he spends on the mat. And if it goes to the mat, can he avoid being subbed? He did some real good hand fighting to defend RNC from Siler, but he did spend time with his back taken which isn't a good look.

    Tough fight to cap. I don't LOVE Dawodu's TDD, but I also don't LOVE Henry's pure TD ability. Which one wins out? I don't for a second consider Henry winning on the feet if Dawodu is fresh.

  27. #27
    Shagdogy
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    Quote Originally Posted by Slevin07 View Post
    Odds are lower for Werdum then I would have originally thought. Anyone can lose, especially at heavyweight but I think Werdum wins this 9/10 times. Going off Volkov and nelson/struve fights. Am I missing something here?

    - Got it in some parlays. One of them being with Khabib and winner of nba championship coming from western conference. Another with Khabib and Barboza.
    So you would cap Werdum in the -900 range? I guess you will be just HAMMERING that ML then?

  28. #28
    Slevin07
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    Quote Originally Posted by Shagdogy View Post
    So you would cap Werdum in the -900 range? I guess you will be just HAMMERING that ML then?
    I don't hammer ml's in this range or bigger, doesn't work out well for me or seemingly most people in general.

    Werdum is 6'4, still giving up a few inches. I'll watch some more tape (werdum/reem) and others.

  29. #29
    Shagdogy
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    Anyone else find it weird that there is a line out for Marshman/Scott already, and that it's as wide as it is? I haven't capped this fight yet, but my memory doesn't have me favoring Scott that heavily, if at all.

  30. #30
    JIBBBY
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    Start capping this Monday or Tuesday.. Week off I took from MMA.. No hurry...

  31. #31
    Slevin07
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    Quote Originally Posted by Richard Clock View Post
    I think there is a decent case to be made for Volkov, maybe not enough to play him on the ML, but I can still see the rationale: Volkov with the reach advantage and better striking technique. Werdum has the clear advantage on ground, but Volkov has improved TDD and Werdum may struggle to get consistent takedowns on the longer frame of Volkov. The Vick/Trinaldo fight elucidated the idea that longer-limbed fighters that have good good grappling technique require a lot more effort to take down and keep there than others. I am curious as to what the Werdum backers think is Werdum's consistent pathway to victory that justifies the current line.
    Watched Volkov's last two fights again, good tdd but Roy still got him down. Struve fight was disappointing to start but will say he has a good chin. I find people underrate Werdum's standup a bit. I still got Werdum but it's no lock.

  32. #32
    turbozed
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    Quote Originally Posted by Shagdogy View Post
    Anyone else find it weird that there is a line out for Marshman/Scott already, and that it's as wide as it is? I haven't capped this fight yet, but my memory doesn't have me favoring Scott that heavily, if at all.
    It was just a line error. They took that off the board pretty quickly but bestfightodds still has the snapshot of it.
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  33. #33
    Shagdogy
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    Quote Originally Posted by turbozed View Post
    It was just a line error. They took that off the board pretty quickly but bestfightodds still has the snapshot of it.
    Makes much more sense.

  34. #34
    Hugo de Naranja
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    Who are you guys betting to win March Madness?

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  35. #35
    Richard Clock
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    Anyone know when we should expect the rest of these lines to be released?

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