1. #1
    TPowell
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    TPowell's Fight Previews

    I plan on doing write-ups of select fights I watch film/handicap. The first installment will be fight one on this weekends card. (Johnson vs Milstead)



    To open the UFC 222 card, a touted LHW prospect makes his third trip into the Octagon. Jordan Johnson is a highly touted two time All American in freestyle wrestling. Johnson only fought six times before making his UFC debut against Henrique da Silva last January, but had already showcased excellent finishing ability on the mat (4/5 1st round finishes to begin his career) and stellar cardio (5 round decision win over LeMarcus Tucker for the RFA LHW title). Johnson imposed his will against Da Silva in the grappling department in his UFC debut. Johnson landed four takedowns and held top control for over 10 minutes to win an easy unanimous decision. One thing to remember about that fight is Henrique da Silva has shown time and time again that he has very poor cardio and it should come as no shock that Johnson was able to land one takedown in both the 2nd and 3rd rounds, but hold a combined nearly nine minutes of top control. In his second UFC appearance, Johnson drew Marcel Fortuna, a man coming down from heavyweight after KO’ing Anthony Hamilton stiff. Fortuna is known more as a grappler, as he is a black belt in BJJ and racked up many submission wins on the local scene. In the fight, Johnson landed 2/6 takedowns but was only able to muster 1:46 of top control. Fortuna found a way to negate the strong wrestling background of Johnson and turn the fight into a kickboxing contest. The fight was very closely contested and the MMA media scoring at MMADecisions.com were split nearly 50-50 on the winner. Johnson would go on to get the unanimous decision victory (29-28 x3) but it certainly took some shine off his potential stardom. At the time, Fortuna’s striking was considered relatively decent for the division, but that certainly changed after his next fight in the UFC. Fortuna rolled into his fight last November against Jake Collier as a -240 betting favorite but was soundly beaten on the scorecards. Collier managed to land nearly 100 significant strikes in the three-round fight. Fortuna struggled mightily on the feet as evidenced by the numbers and lost all 3 rounds according to 8/9 of the media scores at MMADecisions.com. Johnson is still very raw as a prospect and inexperienced, but its obvious he possesses excellent wrestling and top-notch cardio. The other huge thing he possesses is a solid chin. He stays calm under pressure and manages to recover quickly when hit, but the fact is he’s getting hit by some below average strikers, technique wise. I believe part of Johnson’s problem is he really struggles with guys that can beat him to the punch. He’s a solid athlete for sure, but his punching power is average at best for someone in the LHW division in the UFC. On the feet, he mainly wants to swing huge wild punches to get into the clinch and initiate his wrestling. His best takedowns are surprisingly his trips and throws in the clinch when you watch tape. At over -300 on the ML currently, playing Jordan Johnson is not something I can recommend against someone with any type of wrestling chops/background.

    There are a lot of question marks about his opponent at UFC 222, Adam Milstead. Milstead fought twice at heavyweight in the UFC before learning sub 235-pound guys are very susceptible to being rag dolled by wrestlers like Curtis Blaydes. Blaydes physically dominated Milstead by slamming him down at will in the 1st round. Blaydes landed 7/8 takedowns as Milstead displayed a knack for getting back to his feet against the much bigger man. It was the grappling though that caused a knee injury late in the 1st round. Milstead would go on to fight in the second round but tear his ACL, fibula, and nearly his MCL as well in a gruesome injury that stopped the fight instantly. That fight was last February and after an extremely lengthy surgery and stem cell injections, Milstead was nearly 100% at the start of 2018. A former college football player, Milstead has a long history of knee surgeries and its impossible to know what he’ll look like returning from this one. When he’s fighting a guy incapable of rag dolling him around the Octagon, Milstead likes to get into the pocket and brawl. He had extremely quick hands for the heavyweight division but not much in the way of knockout power. His UFC debut was a finish of Chris de la Rocha, but was more of a mercy stoppage as he never hit the mat. Milstead pushes forward recklessly, but is also a deceptively good counter striker. He also has somewhat of a wrestling background and doesn’t accept being on the bottom as shown in the Blaydes fight. Even after pair of UFC fights, Milstead still works a full-time job as a union worker which means he can’t devote the time and effort that others in the UFC are.

    Given the question marks that I’ve brought up in this article, one can undoubtedly wonder how you can consider a play on this fight, but I’m seeing a very sharp angle in this bout. Both guys have a ton of heart and neither possesses much in the way of knockout power on the feet. I would rate Milstead as the more powerful striker but Johnson has taken shots from more powerful guys already in his young career and survived easily. Even if Johnson can get Milstead to the ground, I believe Milstead will find ways to scramble up and not spend minutes on his back like da Silva did. Johnson’s underrated sub game is threat to finish the fight, but it’s clear that Milstead is no slouch on the ground and has the heart to stay in this fight. I do rate Johnson by submission as the most likely finish to this fight, but more than likely this fight hits the scorecards. When it does, I think Johnson will probably do just enough to get the nod. If Johnson is unable to have sustained top control to win rounds though, Adam Milstead is a very live dog. Milstead can push the pace and land enough to sway the judges if his hands are anywhere near as quick as they looked pre-injury.

    I’ve already sniped +120 on this fight going the distance as I believe it is more than 50-50 to do so. The line is -105 now but still worthy of a play. I recently added a small play on Milstead by decision at +850. At that price, you are looking for things that have a REASONABLE chance at happening and Milstead winning a decision is certainly possible.

  2. #2
    Teem
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    Nice analysis, looking forward to these write-ups.

  3. #3
    HurlSweatPants
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    Hell yes! Keep them coming man, always appreciate your breakdowns.

  4. #4
    TPowell
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    For a +850, you can't complain about that. I personally thought Milstead won that fight 29-28 for sure. Judges valued the "control" Johnson had apparently over being rocked multiple times in the 3rd

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