[Fence]

Ortega has the chin to take one to give one.. Frankie has gotten rocked in fights before from punches also...

I gotta go with Ortega in this one.. The 0 doesn't go....

Gotta disagree - the "0" is still there because he has not fought a top level fighter... ...yet. I wouldn't jump on that bandwagon until after the FE fight this Saturday. I think people often overlook the fact that FE should be fighting at 35; but has won a belt at 55 and would already be a 45 lb champ but Aldo just had his number. He's always been undersized but wins on heart and skill.

Not too sure how Ortega's grappling skills will pan out against a Div I / BJJ practitioner. I don't see a sub happening at all; just failed sub attempts. I'd have to look at his standup again before placing any wagers but I don't think Ortega is a very polished striker.

[Shagdogy]

Yep exactly. Not sure I'll play the fight due to how volatile Ortega fights are

Really? Man. I feel like Edgar is a pretty great betting spot here. You're basically betting against lightning in a bottle.

Also, Edgar/Johnson parlay is +110. Kinda like that.

[TPowell]

Really? Man. I feel like Edgar is a pretty great betting spot here. You're basically betting against lightning in a bottle.

Also, Edgar/Johnson parlay is +110. Kinda like that.

That would definitely be my leaning. Edgar ML in some parlays or maybe wait on the -3.5 line to come out even.

[JIBBBY]

Gotta disagree - the "0" is still there because he has not fought a top level fighter... ...yet. I wouldn't jump on that bandwagon until after the FE fight this Saturday. I think people often overlook the fact that FE should be fighting at 35; but has won a belt at 55 and would already be a 45 lb champ but Aldo just had his number. He's always been undersized but wins on heart and skill.

Not too sure how Ortega's grappling skills will pan out against a Div I / BJJ practitioner. I don't see a sub happening at all; just failed sub attempts. I'd have to look at his standup again before placing any wagers but I don't think Ortega is a very polished striker.

Well if Edgar is to win it's probably gonna be on points and by decision.. I certainly don't see him finishing Ortega.. On the flip I think Ortega might finish edgar with a Sub after rocking him standing...

Could be a hedge play here depending on the odds on those props...

[Shagdogy]

Well if Edgar is to win it's probably gonna be on points and by decision.. I certainly don't see him finishing Ortega.. On the flip I think Ortega might finish edgar with a Sub after rocking him standing...

Could be a hedge play here depending on the odds on those props...

This is exactly how I see it. Which scenario is more likely?

A) A veteran fighter who has never been finished goes into round 3 with a lead on the scorecards and manages to fight a cautious, savvy round to ride to his victory.

OR

B) A dynamic young gun, down two rounds against a savvy vet who has never been finished, throws caution to the wind and pulls the miracle finish out just before the bell.

I feel like scenario A is far more likely. Edgar by decision all day. Wonder what that prop will be? Prob not all that much better than the ML.

[TPowell]

First play of the event is official and line has already moved 20 cents the other way (now +100)

Johnson/Milstead FGTD (+120) for 1 unit

[TPowell]

This is exactly how I see it. Which scenario is more likely?

A) A veteran fighter who has never been finished goes into round 3 with a lead on the scorecards and manages to fight a cautious, savvy round to ride to his victory.

OR

B) A dynamic young gun, down two rounds against a savvy vet who has never been finished, throws caution to the wind and pulls the miracle finish out just before the bell.

I feel like scenario A is far more likely. Edgar by decision all day. Wonder what that prop will be? Prob not all that much better than the ML.

Interestingly enough I feel like Ortega has gotten by beating decision type fighters without much power by finishing late. Frankie isn't a power puncher honestly but with Ortega's lack of technique, he could get finished late here on the feet IMO. Not a better than 50-50 chance obviously but I would put some Edgar R3 money out there potentially

[Shagdogy]

First play of the event is official and line has already moved 20 cents the other way (now +100)

Johnson/Milstead FGTD (+120) for 1 unit

I like it.

[firekillex]

80% chance frankie edgar wins

[JIBBBY]

80% chance frankie edgar wins

45% chance Frankie gets sub'd out after taking one on the chin and getting rocked then choked out in a standing or sitting Gill...

3rd round finish for Ortega I may play for giggles and kicks... The boy does turn it up in the 3rd when down on the cards... He usually gets the finish too...

This early prop came out...

Frankie Edgar vs Brian Ortega - Featherweight 3 rounds - UFC 222
Sat 3/3		1103 Edgar / Ortega goes 3 round distance		-265
11:30PM		1104 Fight won’t go 3 round distance		+185

[Shagdogy]

45% chance Frankie gets sub'd out after taking one on the chin and getting rocked then choked out in a standing or sitting Gill...

3rd round finish for Ortega I may play for giggles and kicks... The boy does turn it up in the 3rd when down on the cards... He usually gets the finish too...

This early prop came out...

Frankie Edgar vs Brian Ortega - Featherweight 3 rounds - UFC 222
Sat 3/3		1103 Edgar / Ortega goes 3 round distance		-265
11:30PM		1104 Fight won’t go 3 round distance		+185

45% chance Frankie gets subbed?? Jibbs you can't be serious. The ML on Ortega is giving him a roughly 40% chance of winning in any way, but you want to give him 45% to sub?

I wish I could bet you on the side... you'd be giving me +120 for Frankie ML prob. I understand Ortega is an impressive finisher but this is a clear step up for him. Cub had been subbed FIVE times prior to his fight with Ortega. Frankie is coming in as a veteran who has faced top notch competition and never been finished in any way. Give him some credit.

[MadTiger]

Edgar UD by "tough-ass bastard"

[firekillex]

lmao ... 45% he gets a finish on a guy whos never been finished in 27 bouts????
almost doesnt even deserve a serious response lol... of course its MMA anything can happen , but he definitely doesnt have a 45% chance of finishing a guy whos never been finished

frankie edgar has fought so many guys who are amazing at finishing fights by submission/ ko and still hasnt been finished...
yair rodriguez is a HUGE 45er people thought he would beat edgar and got absolutely starched
jeremy stephens the guy with the most power at 45 and mauling people lately, nope didnt finish frankie
jose aldo at his peak didnt finish edgar
chad mendes... KOD
charles oliveria another HUGE 45er whos an amazing grappler.. nope


list goes on an on... Ortega is no doubt a solid fighter, young and up and coming ... but i think hes a product of solid matchmaking and some luck.... seeing him lose rounds to not so great fighters and pulling out submissions out of his ass isnt sustainable , a guy like Edgar hardly makes mistakes in the octagon thats why hes so hard to beat and impossible to finish because his cardio is so good he recovers in 15 seconds.... only way hes getting subbed is by a choke because he wont tap realistically .... more i think about it the more i wanna go huge on Edgar, hell be to fast , boxing is to crisp and he works some of the best angles/ footwork in the game... hes gonna piece him up ... late tko or decision 50-45/ 49-46 unanimous decision

[JIBBBY]

45% chance Frankie gets subbed?? Jibbs you can't be serious. The ML on Ortega is giving him a roughly 40% chance of winning in any way, but you want to give him 45% to sub?

I wish I could bet you on the side... you'd be giving me +120 for Frankie ML prob. I understand Ortega is an impressive finisher but this is a clear step up for him. Cub had been subbed FIVE times prior to his fight with Ortega. Frankie is coming in as a veteran who has faced top notch competition and never been finished in any way. Give him some credit.

Dude is undefeated, improving, gets most of his wins by sub.. Yes I may even give him a %50 chance.. The dude is proven to turn it up late in fights if he's down on the cards and then he finishes....

I follow the trends Shag and that's worked for me over the years betting MMA and most other sports also.. I don't stray. Frankie is tough but is he evolving still? I don't think so.. Biggest fight for Ortega and think he shows up...

I always said don't bet against a UFC fighter that has over 10 wins and undefeated.. This will be Ortega's 7th fight in the UFC now.. Ortega fits the bill to not FADE now...

http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Brian-Ortega-65310

[Hugo de Naranja]

lmao ... 45% he gets a finish on a guy whos never been finished in 27 bouts????
almost doesnt even deserve a serious response lol... of course its MMA anything can happen , but he definitely doesnt have a 45% chance of finishing a guy whos never been finished

frankie edgar has fought so many guys who are amazing at finishing fights by submission/ ko and still hasnt been finished...
yair rodriguez is a HUGE 45er people thought he would beat edgar and got absolutely starched
jeremy stephens the guy with the most power at 45 and mauling people lately, nope didnt finish frankie
jose aldo at his peak didnt finish edgar
chad mendes... KOD
charles oliveria another HUGE 45er whos an amazing grappler.. nope


list goes on an on... Ortega is no doubt a solid fighter, young and up and coming ... but i think hes a product of solid matchmaking and some luck.... seeing him lose rounds to not so great fighters and pulling out submissions out of his ass isnt sustainable , a guy like Edgar hardly makes mistakes in the octagon thats why hes so hard to beat and impossible to finish because his cardio is so good he recovers in 15 seconds.... only way hes getting subbed is by a choke because he wont tap realistically .... more i think about it the more i wanna go huge on Edgar, hell be to fast , boxing is to crisp and he works some of the best angles/ footwork in the game... hes gonna piece him up ... late tko or decision 50-45/ 49-46 unanimous decision

Three round fight

[firekillex]

Three round fight

completely forgot this is a 3 rounder
max play frankie edgar

5 rounds was better for ortega .... give edgar 85% now to win

[Hugo de Naranja]

completely forgot this is a 3 rounder
max play frankie edgar

How many units is a max play for you?

[firekillex]

bet black, fade asians, bet guys with 10 wins undefeated, look at sherdog records and send pictures of random fights where somebody is getting the better of an opponent
jibby 101

[JIBBBY]

completely forgot this is a 3 rounder
max play frankie edgar

5 rounds was better for ortega .... give edgar 85% now to win

Fire buddy you are funny... Ortega is best in 3 round fights so far.. I think that favors Ortega.. Frankie is a cardio machine...

[firekillex]

How many units is a max play for you?

3-5 units depending where my bankroll is at
typical unit ill go 2% bankroll... so 5-10% bankroll

[firekillex]

edgar has some of the best cardio in the UFC
aka hell push the pace immensly for 3 rounds because he WONT get tired... Ortegas only chance to win this fight is by finish
less rounds= less time to finish

easy decision for frankie here

[JIBBBY]

bet black, fade asians, bet guys with 10 wins undefeated, look at sherdog records and send pictures of random fights where somebody is getting the better of an opponent
jibby 101

I do a little more then that when I cap fights Fire.. I just post up the basics for visuals and obvious trends.... Like I said you are a funny guy.. Good luck with Frankie.. He might win by decision..

I think I'm gonna hedge that fight both ways.. Right now though I'm liking Ortega by sub in the 3rd round..

[firekillex]

for some reason i thought this was for an interm title with all those UFC is giving out...
gonna be going 3 units edgar SU , 1-2 units decision prop if the price is good
hedge slightly ortega sub just in case... because this is MMA anything can happen and Ortega is a submission wizard no doubt
but this is Edgars fight

[Shagdogy]

for some reason i thought this was for an interm title with all those UFC is giving out...
gonna be going 3 units edgar SU , 1-2 units decision prop if the price is good
hedge slightly ortega sub just in case... because this is MMA anything can happen and Ortega is a submission wizard no doubt
but this is Edgars fight

This is pretty much exactly how I think I will play it.

[Sanity Check]

Why doesn't Jordan still go by Jordan "Big Swingin" Johnson in the UFC? He did in RFA. That is an awesome nickname.

Lavar "BIG" Johnson might've had it first.

I would guess promoters deterred the "Big Swingin" Johnson moniker.

[Thrilla]

If Edgar gonna get finished it will be more likely to a striker IMO.
Recent fights Edgar was in trouble in the stand up VS Aldo and Stephens. Think he didnt even land one good clean strike vs Stephens on the feet.

[Thrilla]

UFC 222 Countdown:

Stefan Struve vs. Andrei Arlovski



Frankie Edgar vs. Brian Ortega



Cyborg vs. Kunitskaya

[Sanity Check]

Why doesn't Jordan still go by Jordan "Big Swingin" Johnson in the UFC? He did in RFA. That is an awesome nickname.

With a name like that... its almost as if he's trying to promote MMA as being human cocI< fighting.

[Shagdogy]

So I know Bryan Caraway has an OK record and UFC tenure on paper, but every time I watch him fight he just looks like trash. I feel like I always want to underestimate him. Meanwhile, I did underestimate Stamann last time out and he surprised me with his performance over Duquesnoy. This is making me want to bet Stamann at a decent price but I know I haven't been the best judge of either of these guys in the past. Anyone got any insight on this matchup?

[Richard Clock]

lmao ... 45% he gets a finish on a guy whos never been finished in 27 bouts????
almost doesnt even deserve a serious response lol... of course its MMA anything can happen , but he definitely doesnt have a 45% chance of finishing a guy whos never been finished

frankie edgar has fought so many guys who are amazing at finishing fights by submission/ ko and still hasnt been finished...
yair rodriguez is a HUGE 45er people thought he would beat edgar and got absolutely starched
jeremy stephens the guy with the most power at 45 and mauling people lately, nope didnt finish frankie
jose aldo at his peak didnt finish edgar
chad mendes... KOD
charles oliveria another HUGE 45er whos an amazing grappler.. nope


list goes on an on... Ortega is no doubt a solid fighter, young and up and coming ... but i think hes a product of solid matchmaking and some luck.... seeing him lose rounds to not so great fighters and pulling out submissions out of his ass isnt sustainable , a guy like Edgar hardly makes mistakes in the octagon thats why hes so hard to beat and impossible to finish because his cardio is so good he recovers in 15 seconds.... only way hes getting subbed is by a choke because he wont tap realistically .... more i think about it the more i wanna go huge on Edgar, hell be to fast , boxing is to crisp and he works some of the best angles/ footwork in the game... hes gonna piece him up ... late tko or decision 50-45/ 49-46 unanimous decision

This to me is complete nonsense. No fighter who has submitted Carneiro and Swanson back to back are "lucky". It seems like you are being overly harsh on Ortega in order to build up Edgar as this no-brainer value play. The truth is both fighters are really, really, good, and trying to forecast exactly how this matchup will play out is somewhat of an exercise in futility. Ortega by decision is definitely in play here.

[Shagdogy]

This to me is complete nonsense. No fighter who has submitted Carneiro and Swanson back to back are "lucky". It seems like you are being overly harsh on Ortega in order to build up Edgar as this no-brainer value play. The truth is both fighters are really, really, good, and trying to forecast exactly how this matchup will play out is somewhat of an exercise in futility. Ortega by decision is definitely in play here.

You mean Moicano and Swanson? Anyway, I agree that Ortega shouldn't be discounted. However sometimes the sample size is so large and relevant that you feel like even though the edges are small (as in there aren't huge gaps in skill) they are still very likely. That's how I see this fight. Frankie isn't worlds better than Ortega, but he's been so very consistently durable and solid at winning rounds, while Ortega has been consistently dropping rounds and catching lightning in a bottle. While the skill gaps aren't massive, the consistently with which these guys have been who they are gives Frankie a comfortable edge, as slight as it may be. Does that logic make sense? It does to me.

[Teem]

Edgar/Ortega seems to be the focus here... Edgar by decision. Ortega may scare us with a couple sub attempts but imo Frankie doesn't get subbed. As someone mentioned, if Frankie gets finished, it's by a striker. And he seriously impressed me against Yair. I do need to go back and watch some tape on him versus grapplers though... Edgar's cardio is just way too good, especially in a 3 round fight. And he has striking, wrestling, quickness, he has it all. I think he lights Ortega up all three rounds. Edgar obviously knows Ortega takes it easy in the first couple rounds and then explodes in the 3rd. Which means Edgar won't have to do too much in the first couple rounds to still beat him on the scores cards those rounds imo. SO he'll be even more ready with more energy and more focus in the 3rd as well. Love Edgar's heart and fight IQ. Absolutely cannot bet against Edgar right now. But GL with your picks!

[Richard Clock]

You mean Moicano and Swanson? Anyway, I agree that Ortega shouldn't be discounted. However sometimes the sample size is so large and relevant that you feel like even though the edges are small (as in there aren't huge gaps in skill) they are still very likely. That's how I see this fight. Frankie isn't worlds better than Ortega, but he's been so very consistently durable and solid at winning rounds, while Ortega has been consistently dropping rounds and catching lightning in a bottle. While the skill gaps aren't massive, the consistently with which these guys have been who they are gives Frankie a comfortable edge, as slight as it may be. Does that logic make sense? It does to me.

I have 0 issue with it. I think it is a far more measured take on this fight than the quoted poster, who said Frankie has an 85% chance of winning of this fight and that Ortega's ONLY chance of winning this fight is by sub.

[Richard Clock]

So I know Bryan Caraway has an OK record and UFC tenure on paper, but every time I watch him fight he just looks like trash. I feel like I always want to underestimate him. Meanwhile, I did underestimate Stamann last time out and he surprised me with his performance over Duquesnoy. This is making me want to bet Stamann at a decent price but I know I haven't been the best judge of either of these guys in the past. Anyone got any insight on this matchup?

When you say his game is trash, what do you mean exactly? He is certainly limited as a striker and athlete, but his grappling, cardio and durability are all excellent. Still haven't taken a look at Stamann's fight against Terrion Ware, but I was impressed by Caraway after watching his L3 fights, all against solid to very good to elite UFC BWs.

[Shagdogy]

When you say his game is trash, what do you mean exactly? He is certainly limited as a striker and athlete, but his grappling, cardio and durability are all excellent. Still haven't taken a look at Stamann's fight against Terrion Ware, but I was impressed by Caraway after watching his L3 fights, all against solid to very good to elite UFC BWs.

It's an unfair assessment on my part. I think he's ugly to watch so I have a hard time judging him fairly. I always underestimate him. On the flip side, I know I will be high on Stamann after wins over Ware and Duquesnoy that I find impressive. Looking for more objective opinions since I think I may be permanently biased against Caraway. I just don't like the guy.