[Richard Clock]

Hey guys,
I started gambling on sports again recently after taking a bit of a break in college. Now that I have a full time job, a little more time on my hands and more exposable income to spend, I have been putting more a focus on sports gambling and research. The sports I focus on are MMA/NBA/NFL, but MMA is my most profitable. Here are my profits since I started tracking my bets again since this past October (sorry for the oversized picture), I can provide betting slips for further proof. My current betting units are modest ($35), but will hopefully increase my betting units after getting more of a sample size of my betting results. So far, so good.



My approach to gambling has changed significantly since I dabbled with gambling (and generally lost) in college. Some of my basic gambling tenets are very simple, far from groundbreaking, but ones that I think really hamstring the profitability of gamblers who did not practice with consistency:

A) lean toward betting the underdog and avoid paying the chalk - Most of my bets are on underdogs, as I have gotten in trouble in the past in betting on favorites that I thought were "sure things". The truth is that we often know less about a fighter's true ability than we think, especially for those who rely too much on the eye test and film study to make handicapping decisions. You can really improve your profitability by focusing on betting on underdogs who are undervalued by the MMA betting public that is so often prone to recency bias. Often times there you can find a handful of fights in each UFC card that are much more competitive than the odds/public perception would lead you to believe. Also, I have shown more of a willingness to bet on the "unsexy" veterans, such as Darren Elkins that are aesthetically lacking fighters but who get the job done and are often underestimated (see Machida vs. Anders). Humility in gambling is important.

B) getting the best price industry-wide and historically - By industry-wide I mean the best price as compared to other sports books (5Dimes often times offers the best prices) and by historically I mean the best price within a betting timeline (for example, getting Yoel Romero at +170 today rather than the -190 he opened at). This will save you a TON of expected value over time and, therefore, profitability. Choosing not to make a bet at all if a price isn't quite good enough requires discipline, but is an absolute necessity.

C) SOS matters - Analyzing a fighter's strength of schedule, and overall body of work, rather than his recent wins/losses, fighting style, etc. separates profitable gamblers from mushes. I tend to think that trying to handicap a particularl fight by "breaking down" individual aspects of the matchup (striking, grappling) is often an exercise in futility and will lead you to make inaccurate decisions. The fact is that the eye test and memory is misleading, and what is most important when evaluating a fighter from a handicapping perspective is the degree by which a fighter can consistently compete with other high-level MMA fighters, who each have their own specific styles, strengths and weaknesses. A fighter whose striking looked like garbage in one fight may look elite in an another, with the distinction almost always matchup-based. This is the reason why looking at overall body of work, quality of opponents and the level of competitiveness in those fights is most meaningful. It allows you to cut out some of the other noise and your own errors in judgement.

I will be placing my bets tonight for UFC 221 (it will probably look bad if I flop on the first night but oh well), and hope you follow along in the future.

[Hugo de Naranja]

Nice to see a new guy posting a thread. Best of luck Richard.

[Richard Clock]

Here are the bets for tonight that I made so far. I may add some more bets (possibly Asker, Matthews) if the lines move, but I may not be able to post them later:



I provided my justification for Hunt in the event thread. Glad to have gotten him at +155 as his line has already dropped.

The Yoel bet is one that I would sort of like back. After his line opened at -190 on 5D, I would have never thought he would end up at +170, but here we are. Has there been a line for a UFC main event fight that has moved so significantly since open? It seems like the books were way off on the opening line despite the fact that I so think Yoel should be favored. I was initially satisfied with his price of +105 and was happy to add more money on when the line continued to move. Now I have more than a unit on him and am at the point now where I am hoping he is not nursing an injury. I think Yoel gets the win in an injury-agnostic matchup.

[Richard Clock]

Nice to see a new guy posting a thread. Best of luck Richard.

Thanks, good luck tonight.

[Richard Clock]

Romero win and Hunt loss puts me at a little over a unit profit tonight! Romero took care of business, as expected, despite the weigh-in silliness. Didn't get the best price on Romero, but can't be too hard on myself considering the unique circumstances.
Probably should have stayed away from Hunt, but the price I got was v good (+155), and Hunt at least tested the chin of Blaydes.

Other bets I was considering : Matthews and Asker...Asker was +235 near closing, but I am obviously glad to have stayed away. Spanking myself for not taking Matthews at anything better than +130. My breakdown of the fight is in the UFC 221 event thread. I really thought this was would be a close fight in which Matthews was underrated and Leech overrated. Strength of schedule matters!

[HurlSweatPants]

Romero win and Hunt loss puts me at a little over a unit profit tonight! Romero took care of business, as expected, despite the weigh-in silliness. Didn't get the best price on Romero, but can't be too hard on myself considering the unique circumstances.
Probably should have stayed away from Hunt, but the price I got was v good (+155), and Hunt at least tested the chin of Blaydes.

Other bets I was considering : Matthews and Asker...Asker was +235 near closing, but I am obviously glad to have stayed away. Spanking myself for not taking Matthews at anything better than +130. My breakdown of the fight is in the UFC 221 event thread. I really thought this was would be a close fight in which Matthews was underrated and Leech overrated. Strength of schedule matters!

Looked like mostly everyone had a plus night, congrats and look forward to following your picks.

[Richard Clock]

Looked like mostly everyone had a plus night, congrats and look forward to following your picks.

Thanks for the hospitality bud, looks like I played a lower volume on this event than most, but I prefer it that way.

I have added a few more future plays that I will post/discuss tonight

[Richard Clock]

Updated profit margins since tracking bets in October:




Also, full disclosure of all future bets locked in



We will focus on bets for the next next event first. I will copy my analysis for Cerrone/Yancy from the event thread:

"The Cerrone/Yancy line is recency bias/results bias at work. Yancy's stock is propped up by recent comeback wins over Erik Silva (who is 1-4 over his last 5) and Cowboy Oliveira, a fight in which he took a tremendous amount of damage. His other somewhat recent wins were over Sean Spencer (no longer in UFC), split decision over Makdessi (2-3 in his last 5), Proctor (1-3 in his last 4) and Damon Jackson (no longer in the UFC). The concerns about Cerrone are obvious, but seem to be already baked into this line. Do people forget that he lost a very competitive decision to Robbie Lawler just ~7 months ago? Cerrone still is significantly better than Yancy everywhere. I jumped on Cerrone on 5D at -135 to win one unit. I am very happy to have jumped on that line early, as the line sits at -155 on 5D and is as high as -160 industry-wide". I would be a little more wary to bet on Cerrone at the current price, but still has value as I think Cerrone conservatively wins this fight 65% of the time.

[Sanity Check]

Is there a way I could make a thread like this & lock my plays so they wouldn't be visible until after the event was over?

I never tail anyone's bets & I don't want anyone following mine either(especially not with my losing past 2 weeks haa).

[Richard Clock]

Is there a way I could make a thread like this & lock my plays so they wouldn't be visible until after the event was over?

I never tail anyone's bets & I don't want anyone following mine either(especially not with my losing past 2 weeks haa).

I'm not really following. If you are looking for a good bet tracking software that you can use to personally track bets and see your profitability, I can provide you a link of the one I use.

[Sanity Check]

I'm not really following. If you are looking for a good bet tracking software that you can use to personally track bets and see your profitability, I can provide you a link of the one I use.

In 2017, there were a lot of UFC events where I literally doubled my bankroll. I posted many screenshots of it in my time here(although no one probably remembers).

If I post plays after an event(to prevent tailing) it'll look like BS.

So I was wondering if there was a way I could post my plays & have them locked in without being displayed publicly. Then later, have them visible after an event was over.

[Richard Clock]

In 2017, there were a lot of UFC events where I literally doubled my bankroll. I posted many screenshots of it in my time here(although no one probably remembers).

If I post plays after an event(to prevent tailing) it'll look like BS.

So I was wondering if there was a way I could post my plays & have them locked in without being displayed publicly. Then later, have them visible after an event was over.

I would think it can be as simple as posting your betting slips after the event. I know SBR has some betting spreadsheet that BigDay uses that locks in your plays. I think if you preface your thread with the conditions made above, I don't think people will question you. Most people seem perfectly kind on here.

[Richard Clock]

---

[HurlSweatPants]

In 2017, there were a lot of UFC events where I literally doubled my bankroll. I posted many screenshots of it in my time here(although no one probably remembers).

If I post plays after an event(to prevent tailing) it'll look like BS.

So I was wondering if there was a way I could post my plays & have them locked in without being displayed publicly. Then later, have them visible after an event was over.

Not to clog up RC's thread, but I am sure I can speak for most when I say that we welcome all input and picks, and if someone follows you and loses that is on them anyway. You might get a few ppl here and there with criticism (productive mostly) but the MMA forum has been really awesome the last year or so and I would highly recommend posting your picks if you are confident. Not to mention, there are some real monsters on here that will elevate your skills. I have seen your name around and would enjoy seeing your input.

With that said, I hardly post mine b/c I just don't make enough plays on MMA so I don't have much room to talk. BOL

[Richard Clock]

Not to clog up RC's thread, but I am sure I can speak for most when I say that we welcome all input and picks, and if someone follows you and loses that is on them anyway. You might get a few ppl here and there with criticism (productive mostly) but the MMA forum has been really awesome the last year or so and I would highly recommend posting your picks if you are confident. Not to mention, there are some real monsters on here that will elevate your skills. I have seen your name around and would enjoy seeing your input.

With that said, I hardly post mine b/c I just don't make enough plays on MMA so I don't have much room to talk. BOL

This thread has been a little quiet so feel free to post here whenever. The forum seems like less of bloodbath with some of the unsavory characters from years past no longer posting.

[Richard Clock]

Ok, this weekend will be a little busier with Bellator, UFC, and NBA All-Star Weekend. I am hoping to give the forum some winners and prove my mettle.

We are going to start with a play for UFC's Sunday card:



Please keep in mind taht my betting unit size is set at $35. These bets may seem like comparative peanuts, but I want to stay disciplined at this betting size and wait until I have a larger sample size before considering increasing my betting size or trying a different bankroll management method. Winners are winners and you should tail (at your own risk) regardless.

If this line continues to move into the +200s, I will eventually add on money at that price to "complete" my 1 unit bet, but I will settle at this price or a slightly worse price for the remainder of my bet if the line creeps down. One of the aspects of my handicapping that I need improvement on is identifying exactly when a fighter's price is truly at its peak. Suggestions/critique is welcome. Getting a solid price on a fighter is good practice, but getting the BEST price on a fighter will contribute greatly to profitability over time and is far from greedy.

An emphasis of my betting approach that I want to focus in this thread is A) embracing variance and B) cutting out the "noise". In reference to point B), I so often see in this forum and other internet sources the average MMA fan placing value in a certain quality of a fight/fighter/matchup that is overstated and ultimately meaningless in truly identifying value in a line and correctly handicapping a fight. Certain qualities/skills/weaknesses of a fighter are often inflated, exaggerated, undervalued or overvalued due to the influence of recency bias, the inexactness of the "eye test", and the piblic's tendency to romanticize/demonize high-level athletes.

Perhaps this is not the absolute best example of the point I have made above, but I certainly think there is some noise baked into the Vick/Trinaldo line that is worth discussing. Based on what I have researched online and in this thread, it seems as though Vick is being justified as the somewhat significant betting favorite due to the following factors: A) Vick is on a three fight win streak, each win being in a exciting and convincing manner B) Vick has the significant reach advantage C) Vick is a stylistic mismatch for Trinaldo. I would argue that all three points are either misleading/inaccurate or not significantly meaningful in identifying value in this line.

The main point I want to make that seemingly ties points A through C above together is that 1) James Vick has put together a win streak of lower level fighters, each of which I believe is significantly less talented and less historically successful than Trinaldo, and 2) that Trinaldo has put together a resume of recent performances that is more impressive than Vick's.
Gamblers of MMA often try so painstakingly hard to break down every minutia of a matchup, meanwhile perhaps the most important signal in identifying value in a line is quite simple: "how consistently can a fighter beat high-level competition with different styles/skillsets?". In Trinaldo's case, he has put together recent wins over Paul Felder (TKO), Chad Laprise (TKO), Jim Miller, Ross Pearson and Yancy. Each fighter is an average to above average UFC lightweight, and each posed their own specific stylistic challenges. He was able to convincingly beat each, whether it be by his dynamite left hand or body kick, or by his crushing top game. Trinaldo's cardio has held up decently and he has solid durability/chin (never been KO'ed). His age of 39 is certainly a factor but not enough to sway me off his line. His sole recent loss came against the elite Kevin Lee, with whom Trinaldo competed admirably with until he was caught in the second round.

Vick has shown success with his improved and rangey boxing game and slick jiu jitsu, but he has done so against three fighters (with Duffy admittedly being an impressive feather in his cap) that are generally average to below average UFC competition. However, the betting public seems to be more strident in pointing out the stylistic threats that the favorite Vick poses to Trinaldo, meanwhile Trinaldo himself poses threats to Vick that his other recent opponents have not. Not to mention that Trinaldo is by far the most talented and successful fighter Vick has faced since Dariush, whom Vick lost decisively to. No one is denying that Vick is very talented, and I would not be shocked if Vick does manage to take a leap in this fight and exert his own stylistic will. However there is uncertainty considering the little evidence we have with Vick facing and beating high-level competition, and there is more certainty in Trinaldo's propensity to beat high-level competition with consistency. Where there is uncertainty and variance, and an ambiguous difference in overall talent, I side with the underdog, especially one at this price.

[HurlSweatPants]

For 190, Trinaldo is definitely live.

I love the analysis and came away with mostly the same conclusions. I am glad that you did not mention the home field advantage that I have heard relentlessly on MMA podcasts or in discussions (same regarding Lewis).

The problem is that both mentioned Texas fighters aren't very popular in this particular area (Austin) as Lewis is from Houston by way of Louisiana, and Vick is from Dallas, which in reality are about 2 or 3 states apart for most areas. I can also tell you just being on the ground around the Erwin center this week that Cowboy is/will continue to garner more backing than Vick or Lewis by a long shot. As will Yancy and Sage. I hate using a location as a justification for an advantage. The only good thing about this metric is that I think it will drive the Vick price closer to the fight, so anything about 200 looks really good.

With that said, I am wary of Vick for the points you mentioned, I know Dariush is a monster, but I think his standup had, and still has a lot to be desired, yet he beat Vick decisively. I look at Vick the same way as I look at Rockhold in regards to stand up absorption. He is very skilled, but is a little cocky and throws with his chin up and head on a line. If he does not come into this fight with an improvement in this area, he could go to sleep. Keep in mind he also got KO'd by Chisea (albeit several years ago).

BOL

[Richard Clock]

For 190, Trinaldo is definitely live.

I love the analysis and came away with mostly the same conclusions. I am glad that you did not mention the home field advantage that I have heard relentlessly on MMA podcasts or in discussions (same regarding Lewis).

The problem is that both mentioned Texas fighters aren't very popular in this particular area (Austin) as Lewis is from Houston by way of Louisiana, and Vick is from Dallas, which in reality are about 2 or 3 states apart for most areas. I can also tell you just being on the ground around the Erwin center this week that Cowboy is/will continue to garner more backing than Vick or Lewis by a long shot. As will Yancy and Sage. I hate using a location as a justification for an advantage. The only good thing about this metric is that I think it will drive the Vick price closer to the fight, so anything about 200 looks really good.

With that said, I am wary of Vick for the points you mentioned, I know Dariush is a monster, but I think his standup had, and still has a lot to be desired, yet he beat Vick decisively. I look at Vick the same way as I look at Rockhold in regards to stand up absorption. He is very skilled, but is a little cocky and throws with his chin up and head on a line. If he does not come into this fight with an improvement in this area, he could go to sleep. Keep in mind he also got KO'd by Chisea (albeit several years ago).

BOL

Thanks bud, haven't heard much about the hometown cooking angle, but that is definitely what I would classify in the "noise" category. Until there is a study that shows definitively that fighting in your home state/home country is impactful, I will continue to regard it as a non-factor. Perhaps this is anecdotal, but it does seem that Brazilians get a slight edge in close decisions in Brazil (see Moraes/Means). But again, this would be difficult for me to determine as a signal. That can probably be looked into more thoughtfully by smarter people.

No denying Vick is very good, but this bet is less of a fade of Vick and more of a tout of Trinaldo, who is clearly underrated for the reasons provided above.

It seems as though more people are on Trinaldo than not at this price. However, several books still have Trinaldo at +190, so I will sit on that price on 5D until it moves one way or another.

[Richard Clock]

Hey fellas, time to put another bet down, this one on tonight's card. Will likely be adding a special All-Star Weekend edition bet later tonight, so stay tuned if you are a true dgen....



Again, our focus when handicapping these fights is cutting out the noise and focusing on those aspects of a fight/fighter that are meaningful. I've heard a lot of nonsense, admittedly some of which is coming from this forum, about why they are backing either fighter.

First, let's look at the fighters' resumes of recent performances/strength of schedule (SOS). For Mitrione, he dropped back to back loses by submission/TKO to Rothwell and Browne (with the Browne loss not looking as great in hindsight), respectively before putting together a three fight win streak in Bellator. Surely, at least some of Mitirone's recent win streak/success is baked into this line. This really shouldn't be the case, as these recent fights were against low-tier Bellator HWs and ultimately provide misleading information about Mitrione's competency. His first Bellator fight was a TKO win against the 10-8 "Carl Seumanutafa" in which he came razor close to being finished after being cracked in an early exchange. How different is Mitrione's line tonight and his overall stock if Carl doesn't inexplicably stop striking after severely rocking Mitrione? He proceeded to finish HW journeyman Oli Thompson, who is a combined 0-4 in his UFC/Bellator career, and dons a 40.7 Quality Performance Percentage, which is truly bad for someone who has primarily fought in lower tier organizations. With that being said, Oli won in the pocket in some exchanges, but simply gassed due to his bodybuilder frame. His most recent fight was against a 40 year old Russian who hasn't had a relevant victory this decade. It should be noted that Mitrione was rocked in a bizarre double knockdown. I have had the profound displeasure of watching Mitrione's Bellator fights, and make no mistake, he is not the new and improved fighter some fans and the media may be propping up to be as he enters this HW tourney. He is the same middling, flawed heavyweight he has always been; surely, an athletic dude with fast hands, but with very little to show for other than a few scattered UFC finishes. Competing in the UFC for as long as he did is surely an athletic accomplishment that he should be proud of, but within the context of this fight and Mitrione being a decent sized favorite against a competent opponent, I can't help but to be a little more realistic of who Mitrione truly is as a fighter.

For Roy Nelson, he has been consistently average from a skillset and success standpoint, and that should be more than enough to beat Mitrione or at least fight to a competitive decision here. Before his most recent meaningless Bellator fight, he put together a close split decision loss versus Derrick Lewis, in which he showed his solid grappling, a KO versus Bigfoot Silva, and a more recent UD loss to Volkov. Reminder that Volkov was the most talented opponent either Mitrione or Nelson has faced recently, and he presented a insurmountable challenge for Nelson from an overall talent, stylistic and age standpoint. And still, Nelson managed a few takedowns, and survived the three rounds in what was a truly grueling HW slog. Nelson's cardio and and ability to "wear" damage is certainly lacking with age, but his chin and recoverability remains mostly intact, amazingly. He still is a superior grappler compared to Mitrione and still can catch the aggressive Mitrione with a big right hand.

I questioned whether I should bet on Nelson ML + Nelson by decision, but ultimately settled on Nelson handicap (+3 1/2) at +100. I am quite pleased to see the line move to -140 since, very nice value. My rationale is that I consider the likelihood of Nelson winning this fight, and this fight ending in a close decision, to be far greater than the odds indicate. If Mitrione does win, there is a higher likelihood of it being via decision than what the line indicates. Nelson has had a career of being almost impossible to finish, and I will continue to trust his defensive capabilities until we see evidence to the contrary. The potential of a 29-28 scorecard across the board or even a split decision win for Mitrione is well within the range of outcomes, so the +100 price as opposed to Nelson ML provides a few more outs and some extra security.

[Richard Clock]

Based on inspiration from TPowell in the event thread, I have added on a (less than) one unit bet on another Bellator fighter, and a small, All-Star Weekend edition bet thrown in:




First, the Julaton bet: This is more of a fade of Hardy, who is 1-1 in her MMA career, with the lone win coming against a 4-6 fighter. And yet, she is more than a 2 to 1 betting favorite. Going back to our emphasis on cutting out the "noise", Hardy's marketability and frequent presence in Bellator advertising is at least partially baked into this line, meanwhile it has absolutely 0 correlation to actual success in MMA.

Ultimately, the Rising Stars game is a virtual toss up, so there should be inherent value in the underdogs, in this case Team World. Arguably the three best players participating in this game, Embiid, Simmons, both future perennial All-Stars, and Murray are all playing for Team World. Murray is probably the most underrated player in this game, and should rack up assists, points and three pointers in what will surely be a high paced game. While the price on the spread has dropped significantly in value since it was at + 3 1/2 for Team World yesterday, I still think there is marginal value remaining in the player props, and it will be fun to root for an exciting young player on one of my favorite teams. I like Murray at this price because I like the combination of his attractive price while still having a realistic chance of winning MVP.

[Richard Clock]

I finish the night with $2.50 less than when I started. Maybe my best bet of the night ended up being Murray to win MVP at +1100, as Team World won easily and Murray finished with arguably the second best stat line on the team. Unfortunately, the Serb jacked up his points total late and edged MVP. The nuts bet was + 3 1/2 spread for Team World, and I spank myself for not jumping on it yesterday before the line moved.

The real significant loss tonight ultimately was in my dignity, as I cringed through that Heather Hardy fight while trying to convince myself that Julaton may squeak a decision. Ultimately, the value there was still on the dog, as Hardy had no business being such a large favorite. Just a profoundly awful fight, and one I wish I had just seen the result of. Bellator and the UFC are doing such a disservice to talented mixed martial artists that are dropped to the prelims in replace of this garbage, all because Heather Hardy is blonde and "marketable".

The Roy Nelson +3 1/2 cashed and brought me back to basically even for the night. My analysis was proven correct. Both fighters are middling heavyweights with their own clear limitations. Turns out that Mitrione has not revitalized his career at age 39. The bet here probably should have been "fight goes distance" at more plus odds, but Roy did come close to finishing in that last round. Ultimately, the bet made had value and was jumped on at a good price before it moved significantly to -160.

Overall, a decent night that could have been made better by a little more luck. Still, all three bets I was happy with in terms of outcome, price and bet sizing.
If anyone cares to tail, I will have some Saturday All-Star Weekend bonus plays tomorrow, and bets I will likely add on for Sunday's card.

[Richard Clock]

However trivial these events generally are, I do believe slight edges can be identified, as long as these events are approached as being high variance with ambiguous rules, and where the participants are often exerting a slightly lower amount of mental and physical effort than during regular season games.

For the three point contest, however, it is clear that Klay Thompson is the deserving favorite of this group when considering a large sample of regular season statistics and his past success in this event. We can make a somewhat safe assumption that Klay is taking this event somewhat seriously and surely wants to win. I do not see any value in his current line, however.

I think Bradley Beal is one participant that I think is being underestimated. I don't want to kill myself trying to analyze what is inherently a high variance event, however I think there is at least some significance to Bradley Beal being a 39% career 3P shooter, which is the highest among participants not named Klay, on relatively high volume, yet Beal is the third least likely player to win the entire competition based on 5D odds. Perhaps this is anecdotal, but I consider Lowry and George to be excellent players and very good shooters, and Booker, Ellington and Beal to be excellent shooters and very good players (to varying extents). I checked Beal's price to win on a few other books, and his current price is generally middling compared to others. The current line for this prop has since moved down to +175 and was as low as +160.
Horrifyingly, the line for Oladipo has moved up to +535, but I think there is still decent value in the original +435 line. I'm not sure how others are attempting to handicap this event, but I generally give Oldapio a 25% chance of winning. Embrace variance.

[Richard Clock]

Adding one more bet above and perhaps another if I there is any favorable line movement closer to 8:00. I think the heart of the value identified in this line is that I don't think Hield has a significantly lower chance of winning this competition compared to the other guards, yet he is being capped as the biggest underdog among guards. If anything, the inclusion of the 3P shot at the end of the course benefits Hield, who has the best career 3P % of all competitors. If he can get past the first 2 guard rounds, which I think he has a ~25-30 % of doing, he should be favorited in the finals against a slower and worse 3P shooting big. Admittedly, the value here is marginal, but still exists.

[HurlSweatPants]

Now is the time to get in on Tybura and Cowboy.

Lewis has tipped closer to even which I more than expected, but I can't wrap my head around Cowboy dropping this fast.

[Richard Clock]

Now is the time to get in on Tybura and Cowboy.

Lewis has tipped closer to even which I more than expected, but I can't wrap my head around Cowboy dropping this fast.

Already have more than 1 unit on Cerrone at -135, so I won't be adding more. Surprised and a little frustrated that Yancy has picked up steam, but I think my analysis is solid. Is Yancy picking up sharp money?

My lean on Tybura/Lewis was initially Lewis, and almost took a shot on Lewis at +140. We will see where the line moves closer to fight time, but for now it is a solid pass. I have it about 55/45 in favor of Tybura to win.

BOL on your picks

[Richard Clock]

Adding one more pick for tonight:

Al Horford to reach Skills Challenge Final at +280: Risk 20 to win 56. I think his combination of 3P shooting and mobility makes him the co-favorite to come out of the bigs bracket.

[Richard Clock]

Last night's picks flopped: Horford had 4 opportunities to make his three at the end of the coursed but choked, Hield had 2 opportunities to make his 3 but missed. In the 3-point contest, Beal struggled during his run in what was an obtainable top 3 bid. Oladipo was the betting long shot for a reason, as he managed to miss on three straight dunks in the first round. As I mentioned above, these are high variance events that often come down to one three point shot, or questionable judging (looking at you, Lisa Leslie!). It was still fun to have some action on this event and put down a few whiskeys in the process.

So far on the weekend, I am down 2.5 units overall. However, on MMA solely, I am practically even (+$10) after hitting on the Nelson bet. I am hoping I can recover some funds lost on the NBA from this weekend on my MMA bets today. I have added two bets that I will discuss below:



I added on a little more to my Trinaldo bet, this time on Trinaldo at +210. "My rationale for Trinaldo is provided above. The line has since moved down to +185, so I am glad to have gotten a little more on him as the line spiked.

As for my Diego Ferreira bet, I wanted to combat some of the "noise" that surely is influencing this line. Few would argue that Ferreira's long layoff will be at least partially impactful, but I believe the betting public is ultimately overvaluing this factor when handicapping the matchup. Do we have any evidence, backed by data, that indicates that long layoffs directly correlate to losing? Even if that is the case, I think the factor of Diego's long layoff is already baked into the line, so this additional information will not necessary provide any edge.
Additionally, I believe there is a little recency/results bias baked into this line : Jared Gordon, while looking impressive in his 2 UFC fights, did so against weaker competition. Michael Quinones will likely be a 2-and-out in the UFC, and Hacran Dias has dropped 5 of his last 7. Both of Gordon's opponents have clear limitations, and in particular, Gordon's ability to push a high pace overwhelmed Quinones, who seemed lost as a grappler, and Dias, who gassed badly. I believe Ferreira is not only more skilled overall and has been more successful in recent fights than Gordon's previous opponents, but he presents a stylistic matchup as a high-level grappler that Gordon has not yet experienced in the Octagon. In previous fights, his cardio and durability has held up well while still pushing a decent pace himself, and his only losses in the UFC were against two high-end lightweights. Ferreira also has a (relatively) recent win against Aubin-Mercier, who has proven to have some staying power in what is a very competitive and talented division. Ultimately, I am not certain there is such a "talent" gap between the two that warrants this line. I simply think Ferreira makes this fight competitive enough and sneaks in enough decision victories more than 30% of the time. I also think an ITD victory, probably by submission, is in play due to both fighters' aggressiveness. Since I made this bet, the line has dropped significantly into the +170 range. I do not expect to add more money on the current price.

[Richard Clock]

Here are the bets made so far for today's card. I did some research for the Lewis/Tybura fight, but do not expect to place down any action, as the line seems to have sharpened. My initial lean was Lewis at dog odds, but I don't quite see enough value currently to place a confident wager down.

Hoping everyone on the forum cashes their Cerrone bet. It seems as though Ferreira is a bit more contrarian, but at least some will come out of here a winner tonight.

[Richard Clock]

I added a small $15 (0.423 unit) bet on Gouti at his closing price of +325 on 5Dimes.

Overall, a net profit of 0.814 units on tonight's bets and an overall profit of a little over 1 unit on MMA bets this weekend. The Gouti, Trinaldo, and Julaton (from Friday) performances were all equally disappointing, as I thought these were all winnable fights at dog odds. Regardless, I think all of my bets, with the exception of maybe Trinaldo, had very good value and speaks well of my handicapping prospects moving forward.

The Ferreira bet was a nice contrarian hit and my research/analysis proved to be solid. Wish the line didn't drop so significantly towards closing, otherwise I would have added some more money on the ML or ITD prop.

Also regretting not taking Lewis when he spiked at +140, as I think he was undervalued coming into this fight due to unfair critiques of his "heart" and lack of "passion". Again, fading some of the nonsensical noise I often hear from other fight fans/gamblers continues to be a source of profitability.

I will be doing some research this week and will hopefully will have some good winners for next week's Fox Card. Luckily, we won't have any superficial NBA exhibition games next weekend to spoil my profit margins.

[Hugo de Naranja]

I added a small $15 (0.423 unit) bet on Gouti at his closing price of +325 on 5Dimes.

Overall, a net profit of 0.814 units on tonight's bets and an overall profit of a little over 1 unit on MMA bets this weekend. The Gouti, Trinaldo, and Julaton (from Friday) performances were all equally disappointing, as I thought these were all winnable fights at dog odds. Regardless, I think all of my bets, with the exception of maybe Trinaldo, had very good value and speaks well of my handicapping prospects moving forward.

The Ferreira bet was a nice contrarian hit and my research/analysis proved to be solid. Wish the line didn't drop so significantly towards closing, otherwise I would have added some more money on the ML or ITD prop.

Also regretting not taking Lewis when he spiked at +140, as I think he was undervalued coming into this fight due to unfair critiques of his "heart" and lack of "passion". Again, fading some of the nonsensical noise I often hear from other fight fans/gamblers continues to be a source of profitability.

I will be doing some research this week and will hopefully will have some good winners for next week's Fox Card. Luckily, we won't have any superficial NBA exhibition games next weekend to spoil my profit margins.

Nice job on your bets tonight Richard.

[Richard Clock]

Nice job on your bets tonight Richard.

And an even more awesome night for you, Hugo. It is quickly becoming clear where the sharp money on this forum is coming. Bravo.

[Hugo de Naranja]

And an even more awesome night for you, Hugo. It is quickly becoming clear where the sharp money on this forum is coming. Bravo.

Thank you sir.

[HurlSweatPants]

Nice night overall, sharp bet on Gouti, I think he won the first and second but judges will be judges.

[Richard Clock]

Nice night overall, sharp bet on Gouti, I think he won the first and second but judges will be judges.

Thanks man, looks like you lucked out with a great live event. Unfortunately, the only time I bought tickets to a live event was WSOF's first NY card, but I had to give my ticket to a friend because I was too hungover.

[HurlSweatPants]

Thanks man, looks like you lucked out with a great live event. Unfortunately, the only time I bought tickets to a live event was WSOF's first NY card, but I had to give my ticket to a friend because I was too hungover.

Sounds like my college days!

Started looking at some of the upcoming fights now that lines are out. Watching film on the Jouban/Saunders pairing right now, Jouban has the better resume as far as better level of competition (wins over Platinum Perry and Muhammed and loses in last 2 against Nelson and Price. Joubon also is a southpaw which seemed to make Saunders uncomfortable in the Sobotta fight. For Jouban to win, he needs to establish range to negate Saunders advantage in his kicking game.
Saunders was run through by Sobotta, he showed a lot of toughness just getting to the 2nd round, but he took a lot of damage. His gameplan seems to be, and has always been, to snipe on the outside and if it gets tight, initiate a clinch to utilize his brutal clinch game. This GP failed against Sobotta miserably. He showed regression compared to the McGee fight. I actually came away impressed against Court, he landed some clean shots in the first and second (although he out struck for the fight)and seemed poised to stick to the game plan and snipe until he got caught in round 3 and put on his back, but his back game nullified any finish, and essentially won him a very close fight.

I think the line is pretty solid here, I might actually have it a little higher for Joubon, but I need to watch a little more film. Can't wait to see this weeks contributions to making money.