First bet of this card. Was wavering between Godbeer by decision, this bet, and fight goes the distance. I think all of those bets have some value, but I think the specific outcome of Sos ITD is the most overstated, and I like the extra security of multiple outcomes winning me this bet. It seems as though, based on the opening ITD odds and the general consensus I get from bettors, is that Sos taking Godbeer down and finishing him is a foregone conclusion. I generally came away lukewarm about Sos as a prospect after watching his last 3 fights. With the exception of Aleksander Emel (and even he has his clear limitations),
the fighters Sos has faced are pretty unanimously scrubs: quite limited athletically and technically. Sos is clearly a physical force, but in order to consistently beat competent UFC HWs like Godbeer, it will take a lot more craft and much less brute force than what he has shown. His approach is very much like a bull-in-china shop: putting his head down and grabbing a hold of his opponent, getting a takedown and using brute force to get to top position. Godbeer is clearly limited in his own right, specifically in his lack of athleticism and TDD. However, he has shown an ability to at least compete, and in some cases decisively beat, other UFC heavyweights. Also, he is very clearly the more technical striker than SOS, and I have been delightfully surprised with Godbeer's defensive BJJ off his back, specifically his ability not to take too much damage and get back to his feet reasonably quickly. I especially question Sos' cardio and durability if Godbeer survives the first round. I think Sos likelihood of getting a finish significantly diminishes the longer this fight lasts. Sos does not have the fighting style and body type to stay fresh for multiple rounds. Godbeer has at least shown some toughness and durability, and should have his way with Sos in the later rounds with body punches and leg kicks.
The one trepidation I have with this bet is maybe I didn't get the best price historically, but it looks like the line has already moved a little to -132. I placed another bet yesterday that I will discuss tonight, as I break down the remaining fights.