[THE_LOCKSMITH]

FS1, 10:00 pm ET
Lyoto Machida vs Eryk Anders
John Dodson vs Pedro Munhoz
Priscila Cachoeira vs Valentina Shevchenko
Desmond Green vs Michel Prazeres
Marcelo Golm vs Timothy Johnson
Thiago Santos vs Anthony Smith

FS1, 8:00 pm ET
Tim Means vs Sergio Moraes
Damir Hadzovic vs Alan Patrick
Douglas de Andrade vs Marlon Vera
Iuri Alcantara vs Joe Soto

UFC Fight Pass 7:00 pm ET
Deiveson Figueiredo vs Joseph Morales
Polyana Viana vs Maia Stevenson

[Hugo de Naranja]

As always, thanks for creating the thread Locky!

[firekillex]

I think Anders wins this, but man Machinda at +275 is very enticing

[Hugo de Naranja]

I think Anders wins this, but man Machinda at +275 is very enticing

Would you say his most likely path to victory is KO/TKO or Decision?

[firekillex]

Would you say his most likely path to victory is KO/TKO or Decision?

5 rounder... id say his best chance will be a TKO/KO when Anders lunges in for a strike and he does his counter strike , straight

Machida hasnt looked great at all lately to say the least... Anders is very athletic and has big power with some solid wrestling , but this is a big step up from Markus Perez and Natal... +275 , i really wanted to take Anders but those odds ill probably just go small on Machida tbh too juicy

[Hugo de Naranja]

5 rounder... id say his best chance will be a TKO/KO when Anders lunges in for a strike and he does his counter strike , straight

Machida hasnt looked great at all lately to say the least... Anders is very athletic and has big power with some solid wrestling , but this is a big step up from Markus Perez and Natal... +275 , i really wanted to take Anders but those odds ill probably just go small on Machida tbh too juicy

Agreed

[TPowell]

Machida by TKO is most likely way IMO. I would pay for this at +500 or so for sure.

[TPowell]

The Green/Prazeres fight is interesting. I had it capped pretty much right but a lot of people not understand the love for Green. The guy has really good defensive wrestling and can scramble to his feet well too. Whether or not he can keep Prazeres at range and away from him is key IMO.

[firekillex]

Valentina bout to starch this girl and win that 125 belt easy

[Hugo de Naranja]

I will be posting a trivia question at 9:30 MTN (11:30) for anyone who wants to participate.

[Hugo de Naranja]

Hugo's 100 Point Trivia Question:
How many Guillotine Choke victories does Pedro Munhoz have in his career? How many of them came in the UFC? The first person to answer this two part trivia question correctly will receive 100 BetPoints. Best of luck everyone.

[Demonata]

Hugo's 100 Point Trivia Question:
How many Guillotine Choke victories does Pedro Munhoz have in his career? How many of them came in the UFC? The first person to answer this two part trivia question correctly will receive 100 BetPoints. Best of luck everyone.

6. 3 in ufc

[Hugo de Naranja]

6. 3 in ufc

Winner Winner Chicken Dinner. Pretty Amazing that Munhoz has 3 of his 5 UFC Wins by Guillotine.

[Sanity Check]

Is anyone betting NBA?

Seems like tossing money into a meat grinder given how chaotic things are there this year?

[Shagdogy]

Can anyone think of any reason why Vera vs de Andrade will be any different than Vera vs Lineker? I can see it will be a bit closer since de Andrade is a slow starter and doesn't throw as much volume as Lineker but ultimately the matchup will prob look the same. Very doesn't have the boxing to stand and throw with de Andrade and he won't get credit for his kicks unless he hurts him. And he doesn't have the TD game to switch it up. He does have a chin. de Andrade by decision. Close fight.

[Shagdogy]

^ forgot to point out that de Andrade will be the home fighter here in a fight that I think will go to a close decision. I think it's close but I think the odds should be flipped on this one.

[TPowell]

Took Dodson by DEC at +173 at the opener. Feel really good about that. By far the most probable outcome and good + money

[richie360]

Last weeks card looked awful on paper! This is the opposite in my opinion, lots of exciting fights. The main event is probably one of the worst fights on the card!!

[Demonata]

Winner Winner Chicken Dinner. Pretty Amazing that Munhoz has 3 of his 5 UFC Wins by Guillotine.

Thanks man. Those points are most I've won in ufc this year so far lol

[Demonata]

Is anyone betting NBA?

Seems like tossing money into a meat grinder given how chaotic things are there this year?

I can't trust any team.i take jazz to beat hawks the worst team in nba while jazz are rested they lose by tons. But next two games they beat playoff teams detroit and toronto. Celtics cant beat the lakers but they cover easily against golden state. Then golden state loses by 30 to the jazz( was a good game last night i was at it).

[Sirius]

Hey all

I'm leaning hard on Anthony Smith!

...had to take note to consider his next match after he woke up and finished Lombard in that fight.

Santos has the flashy big finishes but outside of those I was not comfortable backing him until he finished. With that said I do not like how Smith gets taken down nor how he fought until his Lombard finish ("do you know my name now!?").

But I think Smith knows he needs to start faster and stronger...

Both fighters have won 3 straight.
Santos has had favorable match ups in fighters that don't compare to Lombard IMO.

I like Smith's size Vs. Santos, big strong 6' 4 guy who I think will be difficult to get out of there for Thiago (6 feet)...and of course I like the price, currently around +230.

[KirkG]

I got John Dodson just because he's never lost 2 fights in a row.. hoping he keeps tradition alive

[KingHawkins]

I am with Sirius, strong lean to Anthony Smith.
And lean to Machida as well. I am not sold on this Anders guy at all.

I also like Golm, but Timothy Johnson is a guy I don't want to lay the juice against. I think this one could go the distance. Over 1.5 at -140 I think I may have to make a little stab at.

[Thrilla]

Took Dodson by DEC at +173 at the opener. Feel really good about that. By far the most probable outcome and good + money

Agreed. Over 2.5 dropping hard. More common market + higher limits. Act fast!

[Hugo de Naranja]

I think Anders puts Machida Out Cold with GnP

[Thrilla]

[JollyRogerMMA]

I think Anders puts the Dragon to sleep ........ hope line drops a bit more because public has 0 idea who Ya Boi is

[Sirius]

Feels like Means is being handed an easier fight in his match up...hopefully he outstrikes Moraes handily.

Tim Means -220
Anthony Smith +230

[TPowell]

I'm leery of means after his last fight to be honest. I'm looking at Timmy Johnson at dog money against a kid with 6 pro fights that has never been outside of the 1st round and never fought anybody with any type of wrestling.

[TPowell]

Last thing for now is unless vera gets a sub this fight goes over easily. He's made with rubber and his power is virtually nothing imo even though he's improved leaps and bounds more than almost anyone in the ufc. Think this one goes the distance or vera gets the sub

[Shagdogy]

I am with Sirius, strong lean to Anthony Smith.
And lean to Machida as well. I am not sold on this Anders guy at all.

I also like Golm, but Timothy Johnson is a guy I don't want to lay the juice against. I think this one could go the distance. Over 1.5 at -140 I think I may have to make a little stab at.

Why the leans to Smith? I don't see what he has to offer here. Unless Santos punches himself out hunting for a finish and doesn't get it.

[TPowell]

Why the leans to Smith? I don't see what he has to offer here. Unless Santos punches himself out hunting for a finish and doesn't get it.

I agree. Someone finally finishes Smith early this time imo.

[KingHawkins]

Why the leans to Smith? I don't see what he has to offer here. Unless Santos punches himself out hunting for a finish and doesn't get it.

You'll probably be like, "whatever, stupid ass logic", which is probably true, but you asked, so I lean to Smith because he is taller, younger, looks meaner, nicknamed Lion Heart, hasn't been KOed in 7 years or so that I could see, he has beaten other older & smaller guys, and Anthony Smith has 40 fights at under 30 years old, he has fought a lot of tough guys, but this is the biggest name for him ever, the biggest moment of his career, and all of the early action and $ has gone against him, driving the line way off from the opener I do believe.
So I haven't laid anything on it yet, but at over 2 to 1, yeah I will throw several hundred $ on LionHeart.

[THE_LOCKSMITH]

Anders looks scared homie

Machida +250.............

[JIBBBY]

MMAMANIA prelims..




135 lbs.: Deiveson Figueiredo vs. Joseph Morales

Deiveson Figueiredo (13-0) slugged his way through some back-and-forth battles to reach UFC, but showed he had craft to spare in his second-round finish of Marco Beltran last June. Proving it was no fluke, “Daico” went on to upset prospect Jarred Brooks in Sao Paulo four months later.
He has knocked out six opponents and submitted another five.
Joseph Morales had to grit through some early trouble to do it, but impressed Dana White enough on “Lookin’ for a Fight” to earn himself a UFC debut last July. Taking on fellow unbeaten prospect Roberto Sanchez, “Bopo” leveled him with a right hand before polishing him off with a bonus-winning rear naked choke.
He has dispatched five professional opponents via some form of choke.
Morales looks like a damn fine prospect at the age of 23, packing the traditional Team Alpha Male loadout of top-notch scrambling and a thumping right hand to support it. What he doesn’t yet have is a super-developed wrestling game or great defense. Figueiredo’s plenty hittable himself, but he looks to be the more dangerous striker and is more battle-tested.
While Morales has the skills to catch Figueiredo in transition, the Brazilian thrives in chaos. Expect plenty of back-and-forth action until Figueiredo finds the mark for the finish.
Prediction: Figueiredo via second-round technical knockout

115 lbs.: Maia Stevenson vs. Polyana Viana

Maia Stevenson (6-4) got off to a rocky, 1-4 start to her MMA career, but scored five consecutive stoppage wins to earn a spot on The Ultimate Fighter (TUF) 26. Despite being ranked No. 5, she was thoroughly overwhelmed by No. 12 Sijara Eubanks, ultimately tapping to a kimura in the second round.
She is three inches shorter and nine years older than Polyana Viana (9-1).
Brazil’s Viana — who won the Jungle Fight Strawweight title in in 2015 — has dispatched five opponents in less than four minutes apiece since her first career defeat. Her victim list includes UFC signee and immediate USADA victim Amanda Ribas, whom she knocked out with punches to earn the title.
She has submitted five opponents, four by armbar, and knocked out another five.
Want to know something interesting? The combined record of Stevenson’s opponents at the time she faced them is 1-14. She lost to the only one with a win. She has yet to beat a single competent foe and got completely overwhelmed in her first step up.
And at 35, there’s not a lot of time for her to shape up.
While Viana stands hilariously straight and wings ugly punches on the feet, she’s an absolute stud grappler with the confidence to pull guard and, so far, ability to make it work. Stevenson’s got some decent combinations, so she could certainly tag Viana, but I expect the younger, more proven fighter to lock up another armbar sometime in the first.
Prediction: Viana via first-round submission


170 lbs.: Sergio Moraesvs. Tim Means

Despite multiple injuries to himself and opponents, Sergio Moraes (12-3-1) rebounded from a debut loss to Cezar “Mutante” to go unbeaten in his next seven fights, including a submission of Neil Magny and comeback knockout of Omari Akhmedov. This momentum wasn’t enough to save him from Kamaru Usman, who put him to sleep with a savage right hand midway through the first round in Sept. 2017.
He stands two inches shorter than Tim Means (27-9-1) and will give up three inches of reach.
“Dirty Bird” first exited UFC after consecutive losses and a failure to make weight, but after losing to the aforementioned Magny in his return, he proceeded to go 7-2 (1 NC) over his next 10 fights. This made him a sizable favorite against Belal Muhammad, but “Remember the Name” overcame a major height disadvantage to edge out a split decision.
Means has stopped 18 opponents with strikes.
Moraes — despite owning one of the most potent Brazilian jiu-jitsu games the Octagon has ever seen — has elected to be an aggressive slugger rather than properly develop his wrestling. That’s worked against fellow grappling specialists like Davi Ramos and Mickael Lebout, but his iffy chin and lack of head movement cost him dearly against Usman and very nearly cost him against Akhmedov until the Dagestani grinder ran out of steam.
Means’ height, length and technique advantages make this a nightmare match up for Moraes, who is going to find himself on the wrong end of jabs, straights and kicks thanks to his lack of nuanced takedown entries. Means chews him up at range before Moraes gets desperate enough to force his way inside, at which point Means’ knees and elbows will put him away.
Prediction: Means via second-round technical knockout

155 lbs.: Alan Patrick vs. Damir Hadzovic

Alan Patrick (14-1) had something of a roller coaster opening to his UFC career, knocking out Garett Whiteley before winning a highly questionable decision over John Makdessi and getting head kicked into oblivion by Mairbek Taisumov. “Nuguete” has enjoyed a bit more consistency since, however, utilizing overpowering wrestling to dispatch Damien Brown and Stevie Ray.
This will be his first fight since Sept. 2016 and just his second since June of the previous year.
Damir Hadzovic (11-3) was hurled right into the deep end when he joined UFC, getting blasted to bits by Mairbek Taisumov in his promotional debut and then matched up against Marcin Held when a fight with Yusuke Kasuya fell through twice. Down two rounds, Hadzovic timed Held’s Imanari roll to perfection and leveled him with a bonus-winning knee.
Though the two are the same height, “The Bosnian Bomber” will give up four inches of reach to the Brazilian.
Hadzovic is a dangerous striker, but his ground game is sorely lacking. Though Patrick isn’t even in the same universe as Held when it comes to finishing skills, he’s an overpowering grappler and effective enough on the feet to disguise his shots. It’s another rough style match up for Hadzovic. And unless he’s got another crazy knee up his sleeve or Patrick has fallen off a cliff during the layoff, he’s looking at UFC loss number two.
Patrick’s length will force Hadzovic to open himself up to takedowns to get inside, and once the Brazilian gets on top, Hadzovic isn’t getting back up until the bell rings. Patrick grinds him down for a wide decision win.
Prediction: Patrick via unanimous decision

135 lbs.: Douglas Silva de Andrade vs. Marlon Vera

Following a rough debut against Zubaira Tukhugov, Douglas Silva de Andrade (24-2) showed off his ferocious punching power in wins over Cody Gibson and Enrique Briones, earning “Performance of the Night” against the former. Rob Font proved too big a step up, however, and choked out the Brazilian with a guillotine in the second round of their UFC 213 match up.
Nineteen of his 24 wins have come by form of knockout.
Marlon Vera (10-4-1) -- seen as one of Team Latin America’s best hopes on the inaugural season of the titular The Ultimate Fighter TUF) — leveled Enrique Briones in the quarterfinals, but was forced out of the tournament because of a skin infection. Undaunted, he’s gone 4-3 in the promotion itself, most recently seeing a three-fight win streak end at the hands of John Lineker in a fairly competitive fight.
“Chito” has submitted six opponents as a professional.
Vera’s got a sizeable edge in reach and leg reach, plus the better submission game, but this looks like a rough match up for him. He struggled to stay away from the most sedate Lineker I’ve ever seen and his takedown accuracy is a paltry 30 percent, meaning he’s going to spend a lot of time in Andrade’s punching range.
And Andrade can crack.
Dangerous as Vera is, his boxing lags well behind Font’s and he doesn’t mix things up nearly as well. Unless he can clip Andrade with a shin to the dome in the early going, the Brazilian lays him out after a few tense exchanges.
Prediction: Andrade via first-round knockout

135 lbs.: Iuri Alcantara vs. Joe Soto

Once a fixture of the Bantamweight Top 15, Iuri Alcntara (34-9) finds himself in the first multi-fight losing streak of his career. “Marajo” came back from the brink of defeat to submit Luke Sanders last March, but suffered his first-ever submission loss to Brian Kelleher and turned in a tepid performance against Alejandro Perez.
Twenty-seven of his 34 wins have come by stoppage, 14 via submission.
Joe Soto (18-6) — who famously saved UFC 177’s pay-per-view (PPV) main event — rattled off three consecutive victories after starting his Octagon career winless (0-3), including impressive submissions of Chris Beal and Marco Beltran. The streak came to an abrupt end in Dec. 2017, when Brett Johns caught him in a calf slicer just 30 seconds into their fight.
“One Bad Mofo” faces a three-inch height disadvantage and a six-inch reach disadvantage.
Alcantara has the skills to destroy Soto. The problem is that he had the skills to destroy Kelleher and Perez, too, and we all saw how that turned out. At 37 years old, he looks like he’s lost the ability to get out of his own way, showcasing baffling in-cage decisions and horribly insufficient volume.
Soto may not have the size or striking acumen to beat an Alcantara who knows what he’s doing, but he can beat this one. Soto’s grappling and volume striking carry him to a decision win.
Prediction: Soto via unanimous decision