1. #36
    JIBBBY
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    mma mania betting calls and discussions...

    UFC on Fight Night 125 odds: Latest Vegas lines and betting guide for ‘Machida vs Anders’

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    Get a detailed breakdown of the betting lines for UFC Fight Night 125, which is set to hit Arena Guilherme Paraense in Belem, Brazil, this weekend (Sat., Feb. 3, 2018), including best bets, underdogs, favorites and much more!

    By Patrick L. Stumberg Jan 31, 2018, 10:03pm EST
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    Photo by Ethan Miller/Getty Images The guard may change this Saturday (Feb. 3, 2018) in Belem, Brazil, as Lyoto Machida looks for his first win since 2014 against rising star Eryk Anders in the main event of UFC Fight Night 125, which will emanate from inside Arena Guilherme Paraense and air on FOX Sports 1 (main card start time 10 p.m. ET).
    The FOX Sports 1-televised event co-stars Pedro Munhoz and John Dodson — who are both looking to stand out in the volatile Bantamweight division — and former title challenger Valentina Shevchenko, who makes her Flyweight debut against Rio native Priscilla Cachoeira.
    We’re off to a good start this year, so let’s see if we can’t keep it up.
    What Went Wrong at UFC on FOX 27?
    I think the judges got it right in the Vinc Pichel-Joaquim Silva fight. Pichel handily controlled the first three minutes of round one and clearly won the second round. I do not, however, think they got it right in Ji Yeon Kim vs. Justine Kish. Kish exceeded my expectations and deserved the win. Still, a win’s a win, I suppose.
    UFC Fight Night 125 Odds For The Undercard:
    Tim Means (-200) vs. Sergio Moraes (+170)
    Alan Patrick (-230) vs. Damir Hadzovic (+190)
    Marlon Vera (-135) vs. Douglas Andrade (+115)
    Joe Soto (-120) vs. Iuri Alcantara (EVEN)
    Deiveson Figueiredo (-145) vs. Joseph Morales (+125)
    Polyana Viana (-370) vs. Maia Stevenson (+310)
    Thoughts: As far as favorites go, Tim Means and Alan Patrick look like quality investments, while Douglas Andrade is a tempting underdog.
    Sergio Moraes is an absolute beast on the ground and I am a big fan. At the same time, I recognize that he has no distance takedown game to speak of, is easy to hit, isn’t all that durable, and is giving up a lot of length and reach to a truly punishing striker. I fully expect Means to demolish him on the feet ... so bet on it.
    Though Patrick is nobody’s idea of must-watch television, he’s an extremely effective grinder with a wild amount of reach for the weight class. He easily overpowered a very capable striker in Stevie Ray and I don’t expect Hadzovic, who had no answer for Marcin Held’s takedowns until he timed one badass knee, to fare much better. Patrick, as usual, earns no fans but does earn his win bonus.
    Douglas Andrade’s power is downright frightening for the weight class — dude has concrete in his hands And while Zubaira Tukhugov and Rob Font demonstrated that he can be defused with clever stand up, Vera is not that level of striker. He struggled to keep John Lineker away despite Lineker showing almost none of his characteristic berserker fury. Vera does not have the tools to take him down and every minute he spends on the feet is tempting disaster. In other words, Andrade by starching.
    UFC Fight Night 125 Odds For The Main Card:
    Eryk Anders (-270) vs. Lyoto Machida (+230)
    John Dodson (-150) vs. Pedro Munhoz (+130)
    Valentina Shevchenko (-900) vs. Priscilla Cachoeira (+600)
    Michel Prazeres (-150) vs. Des Green (+130)
    Marcelo Golm (-170) vs. Timothy Johnson (+150)
    Thiago Santos (-270) vs. Anthony Smith (+230)
    Thoughts: Outside of his two fights with Demetrious Johnson, every single one of Dodson’s losses since 2007 has been a split decision. The guy may be not much more than a nuclear left hand attached to a bundle of fast-twitch reflexes, but he’s still better than most bantamweights in the world. While Pedro Munhoz is on an excellent streak, he’s a fairly straightforward slugger on the feet and lacks the takedown prowess or raw power to impose his grappling on Dodson. The stylistic matchup favors “The Magician” enough for me to recommend a bet.
    UFC Fight Night 125 Best Bets:

    • Single bet -- Tim Means: Bet $100 to make $50
    • Parlay -- Alan Patrick and John Dodson: Bet $70 to make 97.30
    • Single bet -- Douglas Andrade: Bet $50 to make $57.50

    It’s, well, it’s something. See you Saturday, Maniacs.
    Remember that MMAmania.com will deliver live UFC Fight Night 125 results on fight night, which is as good a place as any to talk about all the action inside the Octagon, as well as what you’ve got riding on the sportsbook.
    Initial Investment For 2018: $300
    Current Total: $815.34

  2. #37
    TPowell
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    To add to my huge Tim Johnson lean. Re-watched the Albini fight and they did mention how he missed weeks of training due to a right shoulder injury during the fight. The guy hadn't been knocked down previously in his 5 UFC fights so I'm willing to give him the benefit of the doubt especially since he's nowhere close to old for the division.

  3. #38
    TPowell
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    I've rewatched 3 fights of Tim's now tonight (Albini, Volkov, and Tybura). One thing I've noticed is in the Volkov and Tybura fights, he has been up 2-0 and faded in the 3rd round. In the Tybura fight it was pretty bad even though he wasn't really in danger of being finished. He did come out in the 3rd round with his left arm/shoulder in bad shape (told corner he thought he broke something in it). He dominated the 2nd round against Tybura on the feet and the 1st round was a very close round that I could see being scored 10-10. Volkov and Tybura were both making their UFC debuts but Johnson definitely competed and I think clearly beat Volkov but the Tybura fight was much closer. I just wonder if Johnson has his left arm/shoulder in that 3rd round if he still looks bad. Hopefully this last fight will show me what I'm looking for against Danny O

  4. #39
    JIBBBY
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    ^^ Tpow how has your event totals been going lately? You're hard to track.. I know you know what you are talking about but you never post pending. You do share your ideas though..

  5. #40
    TPowell
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    Quote Originally Posted by JIBBBY View Post
    ^^ Tpow how has your event totals been going lately? You're hard to track.. I know you know what you are talking about but you never post pending. You do share your ideas though..
    Good run lately Jibby. Started tracking at this site in December. Makes things easy.

    http://www.betmma.tips/TPowell90
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  6. #41
    TPowell
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    Finished with the Danny O fight. I'm SHOCKED anybody gave Danny O the fight. Much much closer to a 30-27 than anything else. Anyways, Johnson looked much better in round 3 in this fight. He grinded it out very well and had energy to spare it looked like which was completely different than the other 2 fights (one he got his nose bloodied in round one and the other with the broken arm after the 2nd round). He absolutely LOVES to sprint in with a bunch of hooks and back guys against the fence. I'm not sure I remember Golm seeing anything like that in his 6 pro fights so far. Colombo literally just backed up the whole fight and got finished quickly. I think the OVER and Johnson will definitely be plays for me. Maybe I'll add a little on Johnson by decision at +350 as well.

  7. #42
    JIBBBY
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    Quote Originally Posted by TPowell View Post
    Good run lately Jibby. Started tracking at this site in December. Makes things easy.

    http://www.betmma.tips/TPowell90
    Nice!!!! Keep it up Tpow!!!

  8. #43
    TPowell
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    Half the Battle guys hyping up another untested HW hype machine in Marcelo Golm. Golm is a BJJ guy with decent trips and decent striking when he's backing guys up against the cage. Watch a Timmy Johnson fight and see how many times he gets trapped against the cage.... you'll be waiting a while.

  9. #44
    Shagdogy
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    Quote Originally Posted by TPowell View Post
    Half the Battle guys hyping up another untested HW hype machine in Marcelo Golm. Golm is a BJJ guy with decent trips and decent striking when he's backing guys up against the cage. Watch a Timmy Johnson fight and see how many times he gets trapped against the cage.... you'll be waiting a while.
    I'm not saying you're wrong, but you're making a lot of assumptions about Golm. There simply isn't enough tape to say that Golm can or can't win this fight.

    Just because you haven't seen something doesn't mean it's not real. I wouldn't bet anything confidently in this fight, but I'm leaning Golm just due to his age and the fact that he seems to have some tangible strengths that Johnson doesn't have. From what we've actually seen from him, I think it is fair to say that Golm has more power in his hands than Johnson, and he has solid top control with good BJJ transitions for a HW. I honestly don't feel like Johnson does anything well other than grind. This fight should show us a lot about Golm. Hopefully you're right that it goes over and we get to see Golm in the cage for a bit.

  10. #45
    TPowell
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    Quote Originally Posted by Shagdogy View Post
    I'm not saying you're wrong, but you're making a lot of assumptions about Golm. There simply isn't enough tape to say that Golm can or can't win this fight.

    Just because you haven't seen something doesn't mean it's not real. I wouldn't bet anything confidently in this fight, but I'm leaning Golm just due to his age and the fact that he seems to have some tangible strengths that Johnson doesn't have. From what we've actually seen from him, I think it is fair to say that Golm has more power in his hands than Johnson, and he has solid top control with good BJJ transitions for a HW. I honestly don't feel like Johnson does anything well other than grind. This fight should show us a lot about Golm. Hopefully you're right that it goes over and we get to see Golm in the cage for a bit.

    I watched the fights Golm had and he does not have much power honestly. He's throwing punches in bunches to finish guys (most on the ground or against the cage). Johnson's boxing is criminally underrated. Even if you take out the clinchwork, he's beating guys like Volkov and Danny O on the feet with more power. He lands those hooks charging in at a high rate and they are pretty damaging. I don't think Golm is really better than Johnson anywhere outside of in boxing range (where Johnson doesn't hang out typically) and on the ground (on top).

  11. #46
    TPowell
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    and now Munhoz is going to piece Dodson up on the feet and hurt him with volume........... good luck with that. He's probably the most elusive guy in the weight class easily. Hopefully my confidence isn't out of control here but its hard to explain what I'm feeling when capping fights right now. Finally have a good commitment to film study, finally have solid math behind plays, finally have discipline when betting, etc.

  12. #47
    Shagdogy
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    Quote Originally Posted by TPowell View Post
    I watched the fights Golm had and he does not have much power honestly. He's throwing punches in bunches to finish guys (most on the ground or against the cage). Johnson's boxing is criminally underrated. Even if you take out the clinchwork, he's beating guys like Volkov and Danny O on the feet with more power. He lands those hooks charging in at a high rate and they are pretty damaging. I don't think Golm is really better than Johnson anywhere outside of in boxing range (where Johnson doesn't hang out typically) and on the ground (on top).
    Agree to disagree I guess. I find Johnson's boxing pretty awful. Anyone with a bit of footwork who can cut an angle should be able to get out of the way of his ugly bull rushes.

    Also, here's vid of Golm one punch KOing Pinheiro dos Santos He's out cold before he hits the mat: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wznLKUNwyJ4
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  13. #48
    Shagdogy
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    Am I the only one looking at Figueiredo/Morales won't go the distance at plus money as a real enticing bet? In 22 fights between them, they've been to decision 4 times. They're both undefeated and they both take chances like undefeated fighters do. They constantly go for the home run, whether it's the big KO shot or attacking subs from every position. Neither one of these guys fights like they are trying to win rounds. I know it's a flyweight fight, but I think there's a finish here. Also, if you watch their regional bouts, both guys have been dropped by strikes at times.

  14. #49
    Hugo de Naranja
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    Although Golm is very unproven, I like what I've seen of him in flashes. As Shaggy says, we'll learn a lot about where Golm is at by seeing him fight against a decent gatekeeper like Johnson.

  15. #50
    Hugo de Naranja
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    Quote Originally Posted by Shagdogy View Post
    Am I the only one looking at Figueiredo/Morales won't go the distance at plus money as a real enticing bet? In 22 fights between them, they've been to decision 4 times. They're both undefeated and they both take chances like undefeated fighters do. They constantly go for the home run, whether it's the big KO shot or attacking subs from every position. Neither one of these guys fights like they are trying to win rounds. I know it's a flyweight fight, but I think there's a finish here. Also, if you watch their regional bouts, both guys have been dropped by strikes at times.
    I'm with you on this one. I like Figueiredo ITD (+276) a bit more than won't go the distance for value.

  16. #51
    turbozed
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    Wish I could participate a bit more on this card. Just really getting going watching fights now. Have been traveling.

    Are there or 2 or 3 three fights you guys would recommend me focusing on where you have a strong lean on? I'll let you know if I see the same thing.

    Cheers and good luck y'all!

  17. #52
    Hugo de Naranja
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    Quote Originally Posted by turbozed View Post
    Wish I could participate a bit more on this card. Just really getting going watching fights now. Have been traveling.

    Are there or 2 or 3 three fights you guys would recommend me focusing on where you have a strong lean on? I'll let you know if I see the same thing.

    Cheers and good luck y'all!
    Golm, Prazeres and Figgy please.

  18. #53
    TPowell
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    Quote Originally Posted by Hugo de Naranja View Post
    Although Golm is very unproven, I like what I've seen of him in flashes. As Shaggy says, we'll learn a lot about where Golm is at by seeing him fight against a decent gatekeeper like Johnson.
    He looks good in flashes but this guy has never fought anyone close to even a decent regional fighter. I don't think he'll hold up well to being bullied by the bigger Johnson (DICK haha). Johnson has arguably beaten everyone he's fought in the UFC minus the Roshold fight and in fact most MMA judges agree. Johnson is a legit top 10 guy IMO. He has that Roy Nelson type style that will NEVER make him more than that but he is what is. I'm hoping to at least cash my OVER 1.5 ticket. Will post my card as of now soon

  19. #54
    TPowell
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    Quote Originally Posted by Shagdogy View Post
    Agree to disagree I guess. I find Johnson's boxing pretty awful. Anyone with a bit of footwork who can cut an angle should be able to get out of the way of his ugly bull rushes.

    Also, here's vid of Golm one punch KOing Pinheiro dos Santos He's out cold before he hits the mat: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wznLKUNwyJ4

    Wow that is some awful view of the fight lol. Even that one though, he's landing a combination and the guys hands are at his side (pro debut). The thing is Alexander Volkov is a MUCH better striker than this kid will ever be more than likely and he couldn't handle him for the first 2 rounds. Big play Shaggy?

  20. #55
    TPowell
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    UFC Fight Night 125, Belem, Brazil, 3rd Feb '18

    Straight Pick Opponent Odds Unit Bet
    Timothy Johnson Marcelo Golm +140 1
    Sergio Moraes Tim Means +170 1


    Props and Parlays Unit Bet
    Fight Pick Odds
    PrPi John Dodson vs Pedro Munhoz Dodson wins by decision +173
    1
    Fight Pick Odds
    PrPi Timothy Johnson vs Marcelo Golm Johnson wins by decision +350
    0.5
    Fight Pick Odds
    Pr Timothy Johnson vs Marcelo Golm Over 1.5 rounds -150
    Pr Douglas Silva de Andrade vs Marlon Vera NOT Silva de Andrade wins by TKO/KO -616
    Parlay Odds: -107
    1
    Fight Pick Odds
    Pr Douglas Silva de Andrade vs Marlon Vera Over 2.5 rounds -165
    Pr John Dodson vs Pedro Munhoz Fight starts round 3 -271
    Parlay Odds: +120
    1

  21. #56
    turbozed
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    Thiago Santos has been my boy lately winning me money in his last 3 fights since he got upset by Spicely. Not sure how he opened only at -150 but congrats to those that got anywhere near that opener. People are finally realizing how good the guy is or can be but at -300 a bit pricey.

    The comeback on Smith at +240 though makes me consider the dog bet. Guy is tough as nails and has power for all three rounds. This could either be a let down spot for Santos or it could be an impressive beatdown for him. Does Smith win more than 30% of the time against Santos? Possibly. Probably should pass but maybe a small dog bet here for me.

  22. #57
    TPowell
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    Quote Originally Posted by turbozed View Post
    Thiago Santos has been my boy lately winning me money in his last 3 fights since he got upset by Spicely. Not sure how he opened only at -150 but congrats to those that got anywhere near that opener. People are finally realizing how good the guy is or can be but at -300 a bit pricey.

    The comeback on Smith at +240 though makes me consider the dog bet. Guy is tough as nails and has power for all three rounds. This could either be a let down spot for Santos or it could be an impressive beatdown for him. Does Smith win more than 30% of the time against Santos? Possibly. Probably should pass but maybe a small dog bet here for me.

    If you like Smith then I think you save yourself some money and just play him live after the 1st round.
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  23. #58
    Hugo de Naranja
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    Quote Originally Posted by TPowell View Post
    If you like Smith then I think you save yourself some money and just play him live after the 1st round.
    Not a bad way to play it imo. Lost R1 in each of his last three fights. Santos has a good chance to finish in R1 as well.

  24. #59
    TPowell
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    Quote Originally Posted by Hugo de Naranja View Post
    Not a bad way to play it imo. Lost R1 in each of his last three fights. Santos has a good chance to finish in R1 as well.
    Yep I think Smith is due for a bell ringing 1st round after surviving some beatings lately and turning it on late. Santos HAS looked to be more under control lately though.

  25. #60
    JIBBBY
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    Bring it fellas.. Capping this event hard.. Let's win some money!!!!

  26. #61
    Hugo de Naranja
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    Quote Originally Posted by JIBBBY View Post
    Bring it fellas.. Capping this event hard.. Let's win some money!!!!
    Any early leans Jibs?

  27. #62
    JIBBBY
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    Quote Originally Posted by Hugo de Naranja View Post
    Any early leans Jibs?
    I like these 2 props alot for value and for starters, still working it though.. I don't like posting pending this early but I share these 2...

    1609 Means wins inside distance +213

    1805 Andrade wins inside distance +311

  28. #63
    Hugo de Naranja
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    Quote Originally Posted by JIBBBY View Post
    I like these 2 props alot for value and for starters, still working it though..

    1609 Means wins inside distance +213

    1805 Andrade wins inside distance +311
    I'm on Means KO/TKO (+265) for 2u. I'd be pretty surprised if he subbed Moraes.

  29. #64
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    Quote Originally Posted by Hugo de Naranja View Post
    I'm on Means KO/TKO (+265) for 2u. I'd be pretty surprised if he subbed Moraes.
    I don't wanna get greedy for few extra bucks but it's probably a win by KO.. Means has a few sub wins on his record anyways.... It's probably a KO win for Dirty Bird though..

    He did sub out the Brazilian Cowboy 3 fights ago.. http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Tim-Means-11281

  30. #65
    Hugo de Naranja
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    Quote Originally Posted by JIBBBY View Post
    I don't wanna get greedy for few extra bucks but it's probably a win by KO.. Means has a few sub wins on his record anyways.... It's probably a KO win for Dirty Bird though..

    He did sub out the Brazilian Cowboy 3 fights ago.. http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Tim-Means-11281
    Actually Brazilian Cowboy subbed Means in their rematch. Means' last submission win was against George Sullivan in 2015.

  31. #66
    JIBBBY
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    Quote Originally Posted by Hugo de Naranja View Post
    Actually Brazilian Cowboy subbed Means in their rematch. Means' last submission win was against George Sullivan in 2015.
    You are right my bad... Lost by sub to Cowboy.. Still just didn't want to get greedy with the KO prop.. Went with ITD at +213 to play it safer... I'll be happy with that win regardless..
    Last edited by JIBBBY; 02-01-18 at 11:16 PM.

  32. #67
    turbozed
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    Quote Originally Posted by Hugo de Naranja View Post
    I'm on Means KO/TKO (+265) for 2u. I'd be pretty surprised if he subbed Moraes.
    I remember fading Means against Belal last time because I noticed that he has become more and more hesitant to pull the trigger. Usually when a fighter loses that, it doesn't come back (especially after about 15 years of pro service). Do you think the striking matchup is so lopsided that the new less-aggro Means gets a KO anyway?

  33. #68
    TPowell
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    Andrade??? Vera is made of rubber jibby. Never even been dropped. Never in danger against lineker really. I laid the -600 on that not happening in a parlay

  34. #69
    Hugo de Naranja
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    Quote Originally Posted by turbozed View Post
    I remember fading Means against Belal last time because I noticed that he has become more and more hesitant to pull the trigger. Usually when a fighter loses that, it doesn't come back (especially after about 15 years of pro service). Do you think the striking matchup is so lopsided that the new less-aggro Means gets a KO anyway?
    I noticed that as well but I think Means' striking edge is big enough here that it won't be critical to him getting a finish. Also after watching more tape on Moraes, he's quite a bit wilder and more chinny than I remembered pre-tape.
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  35. #70
    JIBBBY
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    Quote Originally Posted by TPowell View Post
    Andrade??? Vera is made of rubber jibby. Never even been dropped. Never in danger against lineker really. I laid the -600 on that not happening in a parlay
    Dude pretty much only wins by KO... Had to roll with it.. Has twice as many fights also.. In his prime.. Only 2 losses and coming off a submission loss so I expect him to bring it.... http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Dougl...-Andrade-87981

    I might hedge though with Vera sub but not sure yet?.. Not ruling that out as Vera does have 6 of 10 wins by way of Sub victory and the hedge odds are workable both ways....

    Both fighters typically don't go to decision also which is something to consider....http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Marlon-Vera-97179.

    Like I said I'm still working and capping all options with all these fights.. Hugo pressed me for early picks so I shared.. Still working it though.. Not done and finalized yet..

    1831 Vera wins by submission +475
    Last edited by JIBBBY; 02-02-18 at 12:07 AM.

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