1. #211
    Shagdogy
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    So I finally spent a little bit of time capping this main event and while I was really hoping to find the reason to bet Stipe confidently as the dog, I just can't do it. I believe he will have the faster, much more fluid hands, but I can't unsee how many punches he takes by seemingly disrespecting the power of his opponents. His chin is solid. He was stung by Overeem but recovered quickly, but I just don't think taking punches period is a good idea in this fight, and I'm not sure how he will adjust. As much as Ngannou doesn't have pure speed in his hands, he's pretty accurate with his power (recently). I really HATE to say it but I'm picking Ngannou by round 1 KO, but there's a good chance I've just been too blind with regards to this matchup to ever really see it with an open mind. I just don't think Stipe gets all the way in or out as cleanly or quickly as he will need to. No bet for me here. I know I'm not seeing this fight clearly.

  2. #212
    Shagdogy
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    Quote Originally Posted by Hugo de Naranja View Post
    I think Miocic could outstrike him too, especially in the later rounds. He just has to avoid Ngannou's power early.
    Hugo - I agree. But will he avoid the power early? I just can't decide. I don't feel like he has shown incredible or even very good striking defense throughout his run.

    However, if he makes it out of round 1 I think the tide turns drastically and he gains more and more momentum until he stops Ngannou. I just can't tell myself confidently that Ngannou doesn't punch his fist through the back of his head first. Is there anything that makes you confident Stipe gets through the early portion? Or are you just playing the odds that all of his other advantages trump Ngannou's one way to win?

  3. #213
    Hugo de Naranja
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    Quote Originally Posted by Shagdogy View Post
    Hugo - I agree. But will he avoid the power early? I just can't decide. I don't feel like he has shown incredible or even very good striking defense throughout his run.

    However, if he makes it out of round 1 I think the tide turns drastically and he gains more and more momentum until he stops Ngannou. I just can't tell myself confidently that Ngannou doesn't punch his fist through the back of his head first. Is there anything that makes you confident Stipe gets through the early portion? Or are you just playing the odds that all of his other advantages trump Ngannou's one way to win?
    His striking defense isn't amazing or anything but Miocic has shown a great chin and the ability to stick and move against a murderer's row of knockout punchers. He was able to dominate fights against huge hitters like Nelson, Hunt, Overeem, and Dos Santos (rematch). Although Ngannou is definitely an athletic step up from those guys, I'm confident Miocic is the much more skilled fighter with a more well rounded skillset. I think he's got the advantages in combination punching, cardio, wrestling, GnP, toughness etc. Although it's totally possible that Ngannou stops Miocic early I'm "playing the odds" that his skill advantages will win the day here.

  4. #214
    Hugo de Naranja
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    UFC 220: Miocic vs. Ngannou Picks:
    Islam Makhachev Split Decision (29-28 x2, 28-29)
    Enrique Barzola Unanimous Decision (30-27 x2, 29-28)
    Julio Arce Split Decision (29-28 x2, 28-29)
    Alexandre Pantoja Round 2 Submission (Rear-Naked Choke)
    Abdul Razak Alhassan Round 1 TKO (Punches)
    Brandon Davis Unanimous Decision (30-27, 29-28 x2)
    Thomas Almeida Round 2 TKO (Punches)
    Gian Villante Round 1 TKO (Punches)
    Shane Burgos Unanimous Decision (30-27 x2, 29-28)
    Daniel Cormier Round 3 TKO (Punches)
    Stipe Miocic Round 1 TKO (Punches)

  5. #215
    Hugo de Naranja
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    UFC 220: Miocic vs. Ngannou

    Fight Pass Prelims:

    Fight #1: Makhachev vs. Tibau
    Tibau (+220) 1u
    Tibau Scorecards = No Action (+240) .5u
    Tibau Decision (+321) 1u

    Fight #2: Barzola vs. Bessette (DEBUT)
    Barzola -3.5 (-130) 1.95u to win 1.5u

    Fox Sports 1 Prelims:

    Fight #3: Arce (DEBUT) vs. Ige (DEBUT)
    No Bet

    Fight #4: Pantoja vs. Ortiz
    Pantoja Scorecards = No Action (-155) 3.1u to win 2u
    Pantoja Submission (+480) 2u

    Hedge:
    Ortiz Round 3 (+2055) .25u

    Fight #5: Razak Alhassan vs. Homasi
    Razak Alhassan KO/TKO (-117) 4.08u to win 3.5u

    Hedge:
    Homasi KO/TKO (+420) 1u

    Fight #6: Davis (DEBUT) vs. Bochniak
    Davis (-123) 3.675u to win 3u
    Davis ITD (+369) 1u

    Hedge:
    Bochniak KO/TKO (+1347) .5u

    Main Card:

    Fight #7: Almeida vs. Font
    Almeida KO/TKO (+297) 1u

    Hedge(s):
    Font ITD (+235) 1u
    Font Submission (+1225) .5u

    Fight #8: Villante vs. Barroso
    No Bet

    Fight #9: Burgos vs. Kattar
    Burgos -3.5 (+115) 1u

    Hedge(s):
    Kattar Decision (+246) 1u
    Kattar KO/TKO (+1200) .5u

    Fight #10: Cormier (C) vs. Oezdemir
    Cormier KO/TKO (+364) 1u
    Cormier Round 2 (+425) .75u
    Cormier Unanimous Decision (+489) 1u
    Cormier Round 3 (+625) .5u

    Hedge(s):
    Oezdemir Scorecards = No Action (+244) 1u
    Oezdemir Round 1 (+707) 1u

    Fight #11: Miocic (C) vs. Ngannou
    Miocic (+145) 5u
    Miocic Round 1 (+575) 1u
    Miocic Unanimous Decision (+1050) 1u

    Hedge:
    Ngannou Decision (+1850) .5u

    Straight Parlays:
    Burgos/Cormier (+120) 1.5u
    Makhachev+Tibau Over 2.5/Burgos (+152) 1u
    Pantoja/Davis (+157) 1.5u
    Pantoja/Razak Alhassan+Homasi Under 1.5/Davis (+433) .25u

    Prop Parlays:
    Burgos/Cormier -3.5 (+107) 1u
    Pantoja/Cormier -3.5 (+126) 1u
    Cormier ITD/Miocic (+307) .25u
    Makhachev Decision/Barzola Decision/Arce (+457) .25u
    Almeida/Villante/Burgos Decision (+730) .25u

    Full Card Props:
    Over 6.5 Fights Go Distance (+326) 1.25u
    Almeida+Font FOTN (+575) 1u
    Razak Alhassan Fastest KO/TKO (+600) .5u
    Over 7.5 Fights Go Distance (+793) .5u
    Over 8.5 Fights Go Distance (+3800) .25u

    Multi-Event Parlays:
    None

  6. #216
    Demonata
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    Quote Originally Posted by Hugo de Naranja View Post
    UFC 220: Miocic vs. Ngannou

    Fight Pass Prelims:

    Fight #1: Makhachev vs. Tibau
    Tibau (+220) 1u
    Tibau Scorecards = No Action (+240) .5u
    Tibau Decision (+321) 1u

    Fight #2: Barzola vs. Bessette (DEBUT)
    Barzola -3.5 (-130) 1.95u to win 1.5u

    Fox Sports 1 Prelims:

    Fight #3: Arce (DEBUT) vs. Ige (DEBUT)
    No Bet

    Fight #4: Pantoja vs. Ortiz
    Pantoja Scorecards = No Action (-155) 3.1u to win 2u
    Pantoja Submission (+480) 2u

    Hedge:
    Ortiz Round 3 (+2055) .25u

    Fight #5: Razak Alhassan vs. Homasi
    Razak Alhassan KO/TKO (-117) 4.08u to win 3.5u

    Hedge:
    Homasi KO/TKO (+420) 1u

    Fight #6: Davis (DEBUT) vs. Bochniak
    Davis (-123) 3.675u to win 3u
    Davis ITD (+369) 1u

    Hedge:
    Bochniak KO/TKO (+1347) .5u

    Main Card:

    Fight #7: Almeida vs. Font
    Almeida KO/TKO (+297) 1u

    Hedge(s):
    Font ITD (+235) 1u
    Font Submission (+1225) .5u

    Fight #8: Villante vs. Barroso
    No Bet

    Fight #9: Burgos vs. Kattar
    Burgos -3.5 (+115) 1u

    Hedge(s):
    Kattar Decision (+246) 1u
    Kattar KO/TKO (+1200) .5u

    Fight #10: Cormier (C) vs. Oezdemir
    Cormier KO/TKO (+364) 1u
    Cormier Round 2 (+425) .75u
    Cormier Unanimous Decision (+489) 1u
    Cormier Round 3 (+625) .5u

    Hedge(s):
    Oezdemir Scorecards = No Action (+244) 1u
    Oezdemir Round 1 (+707) 1u

    Fight #11: Miocic (C) vs. Ngannou
    Miocic (+145) 5u
    Miocic Round 1 (+575) 1u
    Miocic Unanimous Decision (+1050) 1u

    Hedge:
    Ngannou Decision (+1850) .5u

    Straight Parlays:
    Burgos/Cormier (+120) 1.5u
    Makhachev+Tibau Over 2.5/Burgos (+152) 1u
    Pantoja/Davis (+157) 1.5u
    Pantoja/Razak Alhassan+Homasi Under 1.5/Davis (+433) .25u

    Prop Parlays:
    Burgos/Cormier -3.5 (+107) 1u
    Pantoja/Cormier -3.5 (+126) 1u
    Cormier ITD/Miocic (+307) .25u
    Makhachev Decision/Barzola Decision/Arce (+457) .25u
    Almeida/Villante/Burgos Decision (+730) .25u

    Full Card Props:
    Over 6.5 Fights Go Distance (+326) 1.25u
    Almeida+Font FOTN (+575) 1u
    Razak Alhassan Fastest KO/TKO (+600) .5u
    Over 7.5 Fights Go Distance (+793) .5u
    Over 8.5 Fights Go Distance (+3800) .25u

    Multi-Event Parlays:
    None
    What was the point of your fight #9 pick? If it wins you still lose money from the hedges?

  7. #217
    the1yankee
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    Got some
    like a lot
    plays Hugo. Gl tonite
    Points Awarded:

    Hugo de Naranja gave the1yankee 2 SBR Point(s) for this post.


  8. #218
    TPowell
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    My card is finished as well.

    Tailed Hugo on some Stipe plays

    Stipe by DEC (+966) 0.25 units
    Stipe R1 (+550) 1 unit
    Stipe ML (+155) 2 units
    Stipe STARTS Round 2 (-116) 2 units

    Barzola -3.5 (-130) 1.5 units
    Tibau by DEC (+292) 1 unit
    Cormier -3.5 (-250) 2.5 units
    Almeida ML (-115) 2 units
    Kattar ML (+185) 1 unit
    Davis ML (-125) 2 units
    Points Awarded:

    Hugo de Naranja gave TPowell 5 SBR Point(s) for this post.


  9. #219
    Shagdogy
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    UFC 220 Picks:

    Makhachev, decision.
    Barzola, decision.
    Arce, TKO.
    Ortiz, decision.
    Alhassan, TKO.
    Davis, decision.
    Almeida, TKO.
    Villante, decision.
    Burgos, decision.
    Cormier, sub.
    * Ngannou, KO.

    * I put Miocic in my ToutMaster picks because I'm so on the fence with this fight that I just took the extra points. I'll post my bets in a bit. Not much I really like tonight.

  10. #220
    TPowell
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    Mak keeing steamed. Tibau ML up to +255

  11. #221
    Shagdogy
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    Quote Originally Posted by TPowell View Post
    Mak keeing steamed. Tibau ML up to +255
    I bought myself out of my Mak bet for free earlier yesterday. If I had waited longer, I could've locked in a small guaranteed profit.

  12. #222
    MMANick
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    First play for me is:

    Makhachev & Barzola parlay. I think Makhachev will really start to pour it on Tibau after the first round. I think Barzola will be busier and be able to mix in some TD's on Bessette.

  13. #223
    turbozed
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    Quote Originally Posted by TPowell View Post
    Mak keeing steamed. Tibau ML up to +255
    I saw that too. Odd for that to happen in such an obscure early prelim. Not enough movement for it to be shady though. Probably just some tout

  14. #224
    turbozed
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    I'm on a lot of dogs today.

    Kattar, Bochniak, Lima

    Very small plays on Ortiz, Homasi, and Tibau

    I took chalk on Villante and Ngannou

    This event feels very odd. Not much consensus and I'm not seeing a lot of things other people are seeing (e.g., a lot of good cappers I know are confident about Davis).

  15. #225
    TPowell
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    I'm probably going to look at Bochniak live after R1. I still think Davis cardio isn't that good and Bochniak could lay and pray on him

  16. #226
    Shagdogy
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    Quote Originally Posted by turbozed View Post
    I'm on a lot of dogs today.

    Kattar, Bochniak, Lima

    Very small plays on Ortiz, Homasi, and Tibau

    I took chalk on Villante and Ngannou

    This event feels very odd. Not much consensus and I'm not seeing a lot of things other people are seeing (e.g., a lot of good cappers I know are confident about Davis).
    Play what you see... you have to even if you're going against others. Good luck to you. Although we are on opposite sides of many, I hope we both come out of this relatively unscathed. It definitely doesn't feel like a night where I'm hoping to win big.

  17. #227
    Shagdogy
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    Quote Originally Posted by MMANick View Post
    First play for me is:

    Makhachev & Barzola parlay. I think Makhachev will really start to pour it on Tibau after the first round. I think Barzola will be busier and be able to mix in some TD's on Bessette.
    Literally just added this parlay. At pretty much even I think it's worth the shot.

  18. #228
    Shagdogy
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    UFC 220 Bets:

    Davis -140, 1.4u
    Burgos -195, 1.95u (missed the good line, but taking the shot anyway)
    Cormier/Villante parlay +121, .83u
    Cormier/Arce parlay +121, .83u
    Barzola/Makhachev parlay -109, 1.09u

    That's it for now folks. Good luck.

  19. #229
    MMANick
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    Quote Originally Posted by Shagdogy View Post
    Literally just added this parlay. At pretty much even I think it's worth the shot.
    Same here. Let's cash it!

  20. #230
    MMANick
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    Quote Originally Posted by Shagdogy View Post
    UFC 220 Bets:

    Davis -140, 1.4u
    Burgos -195, 1.95u (missed the good line, but taking the shot anyway)
    Cormier/Villante parlay +121, .83u
    Cormier/Arce parlay +121, .83u
    Barzola/Makhachev parlay -109, 1.09u

    That's it for now folks. Good luck.
    We're seeing the fights the exact same way tonight.

  21. #231
    Hugo de Naranja
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    Quote Originally Posted by Demonata View Post
    What was the point of your fight #9 pick? If it wins you still lose money from the hedges?
    Have Burgos in parlays so I’m on him net.

  22. #232
    Hugo de Naranja
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    Quote Originally Posted by the1yankee View Post
    Got some
    like a lot
    plays Hugo. Gl tonite
    Thanks Yank!

  23. #233
    Demonata
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    Quote Originally Posted by Hugo de Naranja View Post
    Have Burgos in parlays so I’m on him net.
    Ok thanks man. I just wasn't sure if I'm already drunk yet

  24. #234
    Shagdogy
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    Quote Originally Posted by MMANick View Post
    We're seeing the fights the exact same way tonight.
    Well then extra good luck to you sir! I must admit I don't have super high hopes.

  25. #235
    JIBBBY
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    Here we go good luck fellas.. I'm going with the first 3 dogs winning ITD.. Tibau got first up... Small stuff though.. $50 a pop on each...

    $50.00 $420.50 Pending 1/20/18 7:00pm MMA Props Fighting 2005 Tibau wins inside distance +841* vs Not Tibau inside distance

  26. #236
    Shagdogy
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    Tibau is a freak.

  27. #237
    TPowell
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    Tibau by DEC would be a great start. I really think he wins the grappling/strength part of this fight and I'm not sold on Islam's striking at all even though I don't trust Tibau's chin

  28. #238
    TPowell
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    andddd thats why

  29. #239
    Hugo de Naranja
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    Quote Originally Posted by Demonata View Post
    Ok thanks man. I just wasn't sure if I'm already drunk yet
    No problem that was a good question.

  30. #240
    Hugo de Naranja
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    Wow Islam starched him. I did not see that one coming.

  31. #241
    turbozed
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    First KO victory for Islam since 2011. What a way to start the night.

  32. #242
    JIBBBY
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    Caught him cold and on the chin.. Oh well.. Tibau got dropped big time..

  33. #243
    Shagdogy
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    I guess I shouldn't have bought off my Mak bet and just trusted myself. Oh well. Barzola wins and it's all good. Let's turn on that pace, Enrique.

  34. #244
    Demonata
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    I think bessette wins this fight

  35. #245
    TPowell
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    Quote Originally Posted by Demonata View Post
    I think bessette wins this fight

    Big power shot or sub from the bottom is only chance IMO. Barzola COULD become a top 15 guy IMO. Excellent top control wrestler with good strength and his striking is constantly evolving. Bessette a little bit of a journeyman

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