[Shagdogy]

Hey everyone, I went back through my 2017 plays and broke them down by a number of categories. I'm hoping I can learn something from this info that I can use to adjust/improve my process and up the profits for 2018. Please comment and let me know what you see in these numbers. What learning opportunities do you see, or what improvements need to be made? Thanks!

* Overall Record

127-121 (51.2%), +9.35u (1 unit = 1.5% of bankroll. Total of 14% return on bankroll).

* Bet Breakdown

5u: 3-0 (100%), +8.88u
4u: 9-0 (100%), +15.69u
3u: 17-17 (50%), -24.83u
2u: 32-16 (67%), +13.00u
1u: 71-88 (45%), +0.58u

Favorites: 94-47 (67%), +24.37u
Underdogs: 33-72 (31%), -9.52u

All straight bets: 109-88 (55%), +18.90u
ML bets: 100-76 (57%), +20.71u
O/U bets: 12-10 (55%), +2.15u
Parlays: 10-13 (43%), -4.39u
Props: 8-24 (25%), -9.16u

[TPowell]

Your straight bets record is insane. What type of props were you playing? Like average price would help.

[Shagdogy]

Your straight bets record is insane. What type of props were you playing? Like average price would help.

Honestly - most of the props I was playing would have been picking a winner by a specific outcome (for example: Ortega by sub). Generally I wasn't playing very high odds on those. Probably between +300-400 most of the time. I just never have good luck with them.

My biggest prop win was a +900 for Marquez by sub which was a straight tail of Hugo. Wasn't my play at all.

[Hugo de Naranja]

Hey everyone, I went back through my 2017 plays and broke them down by a number of categories. I'm hoping I can learn something from this info that I can use to adjust/improve my process and up the profits for 2018. Please comment and let me know what you see in these numbers. What learning opportunities do you see, or what improvements need to be made? Thanks!

* Overall Record

127-121 (51.2%), +9.35u (1 unit = 1.5% of bankroll. Total of 14% return on bankroll).

* Bet Breakdown

5u: 3-0 (100%), +8.88u
4u: 9-0 (100%), +15.69u
3u: 17-17 (50%), -24.83u
2u: 32-16 (67%), +13.00u
1u: 71-88 (45%), +0.58u

Favorites: 94-47 (67%), +24.37u
Underdogs: 33-72 (31%), -9.52u

All straight bets: 109-88 (55%), +18.90u
ML bets: 100-76 (57%), +20.71u
O/U bets: 12-10 (55%), +2.15u
Parlays: 10-13 (43%), -4.39u
Props: 8-24 (25%), -9.16u

Super impressive results on your 4-5u plays. Also impressive results on favorites and MLs. Are most of those (-1xx) range or (-2xx) range?

[Shagdogy]

Super impressive results on your 4-5u plays. Also impressive results on favorites and MLs. Are most of those (-1xx) range or (-2xx) range?

I don't have the exact #'s but I don't like to play juice heavier than -300 for ML bets (did it once or twice on 4-5u bets). I would guess the majority of the fav bets are better than -200, with a moderate number between -200-250, and then a much smaller percentage -250-300.

[Hugo de Naranja]

I don't have the exact #'s but I don't like to play juice heavier than -300 for ML bets (did it once or twice on 4-5u bets). I would guess the majority of the fav bets are better than -200, with a moderate number between -200-250, and then a much smaller percentage -250-300.

Got it. I ended up improving on last years results (+25.6u) and finished +32.3u over all promotions. Did extremely well on Bellator bets this year.

[Shagdogy]

Got it. I ended up improving on last years results (+25.6u) and finished +32.3u over all promotions. Did extremely well on Bellator bets this year.

Very nice. How did you finish in the tout master contest?

[Hugo de Naranja]

Very nice. How did you finish in the tout master contest?

I finished 6th Overall with the 2nd highest pick accuracy (65.9%)

[Hugo de Naranja]

Are you entered for next year? If not, you should consider it. I learned a lot in 2017. Going against the best cappers week in week out definitely helps.

[Shagdogy]

Are you entered for next year? If not, you should consider it. I learned a lot in 2017. Going against the best cappers week in week out definitely helps.

I'll think about it. Seems like it would be fun, but it's a big commitment to pick every single fight. I rarely have time to cap every fight.

How do you post your picks? On a site?

[Hugo de Naranja]

I'll think about it. Seems like it would be fun, but it's a big commitment to pick every single fight. I rarely have time to cap every fight.

How do you post your picks? On a site?

Through Google Sheets. Signup deadline is today. Entry fee is $50. Top prize is usually around $4000.

[Hugo de Naranja]

And if you don't have time to cap every fight, you can always just lean to the favorites.

[Shagdogy]

Through Google Sheets. Signup deadline is today. Entry fee is $50. Top prize is usually around $4000.

All right I hopped in. Gonna be a busy year so we'll see if I'm able to stay on top of it, but this might help encourage me.

[Hugo de Naranja]

All right I hopped in. Gonna be a busy year so we'll see if I'm able to stay on top of it, but this might help encourage me.

Sounds good Shag. I'll see you on the leaderboards. Let me know if you have any questions about the contest. I'd be happy to help.

[turbozed]

I also lost on props last year. I did terribly actually. 14-88 for a return of -21.2% per wagered amount.

I can somehow justify it by saying that some of the bets were hedges, and therefore I'm paying for risk management. But the amount I lost on prop bets were like 25% of my total profits. I might just go ahead and avoid them altogether for the next few events and see how I do.

[Shagdogy]

I also lost on props last year. I did terribly actually. 14-88 for a return of -21.2% per wagered amount.

I can somehow justify it by saying that some of the bets were hedges, and therefore I'm paying for risk management. But the amount I lost on prop bets were like 25% of my total profits. I might just go ahead and avoid them altogether for the next few events and see how I do.

I'm going to focus more heavily on ML bets and try to have a more strict criteria for when I play other types.

[TPowell]

I'm focusing more on totals myself. I feel like a ton of fights are skewed more tends wanting you to bet the under/stoppage than not.

[turbozed]

I'm focusing more on totals myself. I feel like a ton of fights are skewed more tends wanting you to bet the under/stoppage than not.

Your feeling is correct and is born out by the numbers. Here are the statistics for over/under betting in MMA according to BetMMA tips:

Summary of betting over / under in MMA

How much money would you make / lose if you blindly bet $10 on every over / under in MMA? # Over Win # Under Win # Over Win $ Under Win $ Avg Odds Over Avg Odds Under Avg Odds Over Winners Avg Odds Under Winners 1.5 rounds 859 477 382 $81.60 (0.9% ROI) $-436.11 (-5.1% ROI) 1.81 2.14 1.76 2.05 2.5 rounds 1390 848 542 $173.97 (1.3% ROI) $-1,037.75 (-7.5% ROI) 1.66 2.39 1.63 2.28 3.5 rounds 35 20 15 $43.50 (12.4% ROI) $-10.94 (-3.1% ROI) 1.86 2.11 1.90 2.18 4.5 rounds 57 30 27 $-11.93 (-2.1% ROI) $41.00 (7.2% ROI) 1.81 2.14 1.80 2.18

[TPowell]

People don't want to bet on things lasting a while, especially a fight. Think about it like this. Who is going to bet an OVER when the fight has a guy/girl that can KO you in one shot or submit you from anywhere if it hits the ground? The trick is even those fighters don't finish guys 100% of the time or probably anywhere close to it.

[Shagdogy]

Interesting table Turbo... are those the numbers if you blindly RISKED $10 per bet or bet TO WIN $10? Just wondering how the juice played in there.

Looks like taking a hard look at overs when it's set at 2.5 is always a good idea.

[turbozed]

Interesting table Turbo... are those the numbers if you blindly RISKED $10 per bet or bet TO WIN $10? Just wondering how the juice played in there.

Looks like taking a hard look at overs when it's set at 2.5 is always a good idea.

I think it's RISK since they also have tables showing playing dogs/favorites and the math seems to work that way.

Here's a link if you want to play around a bit: http://www.betmma.tips/mma_statistics.php

Very cool site and good resource.