[Hugo de Naranja]

NO I have already bet the Under 2 1/2 -105 rounds for 2 Units my go more ... Both have a skill gap in the others discipline.

100%

[JIBBBY]

I'm always happy when we getting to the same conclusions independently. Let's get it!

I still wouldn't rule out a Carlos Condit finish though on the flip.. Magny has been stopped several times in recent fights..http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Neil-Magny-69166

We've seen Magny badly rocked with punches in fights and we've seen him sub'd out on the ground in several fights. Condit is capable of doing either or if he starts landing big shots or takes Magny's back.. Condit is pretty well rounded..

Just saying.. Maybe a hedge play is in order.. I'll have to ponder on this leading up... Don't want to over hedge with little value and lose out on profits either... The Magny dec hedged with the Condit ITD is cutting it close..

1409 Condit wins inside distance

+160

[Demonata]

I just hope condit wins. I've never liked magny. I respect condit a lot.

[Shagdogy]

Anyone else feel like Smolka is severely lacking in physicality? No explosiveness or power.

[Hugo de Naranja]

Anyone else feel like Smolka is severely lacking in physicality? No explosiveness or power.

Yeah he has the body shape of a string cheese mascot.

[Shagdogy]

Yeah he has the body shape of a string cheese mascot.

He has some good skills but anyone with decent skills and good to great strength/athleticism has a large edge over him.

[JIBBBY]

Anyone else feel like Smolka is severely lacking in physicality? No explosiveness or power.

Very weak physically... Has heart though..

[Shagdogy]

Very weak physically... Has heart though..

I don't think there's a larger gap between skill and physicality, especially at the lower weight classes, than Smolka. High skill, very low physical tools. It's a big big problem for him and I'm not sure that he can do much to reverse it.

[firekillex]

I don't think there's a larger gap between skill and physicality, especially at the lower weight classes, than Smolka. High skill, very low physical tools. It's a big big problem for him and I'm not sure that he can do much to reverse it.

hed need to move up a weight class and fill his body out more imo.... he is literally a dying corpse when he hits the scale on weigh ins day

[TPowell]

I'm watching film on this Rivera/Lineker fight now. Rivera got into the firefight a little much against Almeida but the guy is SO good as a counter striker and he has solid footwork/speed. I'm not going to compare him to TJ (who destroyed Lineker) but they have some similiarities for sure as shorter wrestlers who also excel on the feet picking shots and landing with power (more so with Rivera). The other part of this (1st round of Vera/Lineker fight now), is that I remember TJ breaking his jaw and Lineker coming back way more timid that usual against Marlon Vera, who has no shot of EVER finishing him. Given all of this, I'm starting to think Rivera by decision is far and away the play and the line is creeping up close to +150 now.

[Hugo de Naranja]

I'm watching film on this Rivera/Lineker fight now. Rivera got into the firefight a little much against Almeida but the guy is SO good as a counter striker and he has solid footwork/speed. I'm not going to compare him to TJ (who destroyed Lineker) but they have some similiarities for sure as shorter wrestlers who also excel on the feet picking shots and landing with power (more so with Rivera). The other part of this (1st round of Vera/Lineker fight now), is that I remember TJ breaking his jaw and Lineker coming back way more timid that usual against Marlon Vera, who has no shot of EVER finishing him. Given all of this, I'm starting to think Rivera by decision is far and away the play and the line is creeping up close to +150 now.

Seems like a pretty likely outcome. Doubt Rivera can finish my boy Lineker but he is very solid and could take advantage of the timidity that Lineker showed in the Vera fight. Good observations T!

[Hugo de Naranja]

Lineker SNA at +money could be in play as well since I think he is the more likely finisher.

[TPowell]

Lineker gassed in that 3rd against Vera as well. I thought he was just playing it safe but his punches were definitely labored as well. I'm starting to believe that all of these crazy firefights are catching up with him. He's 27 years old and has fought nearly 40 times as a pro with that Tasmanian devil style. My only worry is that Lineker has never lost a fight on the feet really and I don't think Rivera can win 2/3 rounds with his wrestling but my premise here is that Lineker may be a little shop worn now after that TJ beating and broken jaw.

[TPowell]

Seems like a pretty likely outcome. Doubt Rivera can finish my boy Lineker but he is very solid and could take advantage of the timidity that Lineker showed in the Vera fight. Good observations T!

Even if Lineker comes forward, Rivera's counter striking is so good that he could have some success there as well. I don't really see an area outside of chins where Lineker is the better fighter. I know people are wanting to take those shots on Lineker at + money but keep in mind this guy was a pickem against Dodson, McDonald, and Font essentially. He won all of those fights but the Dodson fight was razor thin and Rivera has that same style footwork but with MUCH more power and better wrestling.

[Hugo de Naranja]

Lineker gassed in that 3rd against Vera as well. I thought he was just playing it safe but his punches were definitely labored as well. I'm starting to believe that all of these crazy firefights are catching up with him. He's 27 years old and has fought nearly 40 times as a pro with that Tasmanian devil style. My only worry is that Lineker has never lost a fight on the feet really and I don't think Rivera can win 2/3 rounds with his wrestling but my premise here is that Lineker may be a little shop worn now after that TJ beating and broken jaw.

Yeah Lineker is definitely very live on the feet. I'm thinking Rivera Decision hedged by Lineker SNA or KO depending on odds.

[Hugo de Naranja]

Even if Lineker comes forward, Rivera's counter striking is so good that he could have some success there as well. I don't really see an area outside of chins where Lineker is the better fighter. I know people are wanting to take those shots on Lineker at + money but keep in mind this guy was a pickem against Dodson, McDonald, and Font essentially. He won all of those fights but the Dodson fight was razor thin and Rivera has that same style footwork but with MUCH more power and better wrestling.

I disagree that Rivera has "MUCH more power" than Dodson. Dodson is a huge puncher and Rivera has no finishes in the UFC other than Marcus Brimage.

[TPowell]

I disagree that Rivera has "MUCH more power" than Dodson. Dodson is a huge puncher and Rivera has no finishes in the UFC other than Marcus Brimage.

Is he really a huge puncher at 135 though? Rivera's power is underrated IMO. You can look at him and see how short and thick he is (similar build to Lineker). When he sits down on his shots like he did against Almeida, he packs some solid power.

[TPowell]

Another thing to think about is Lineker has 10 KD's in 14 UFC fights (only 2 TKO's in last 9 fights) while Rivera has 3 KD's in 5 fights with only 1 TKO. Lineker is a seriously tough guy and even after that beating, I'm not sure his actual chin has been diminished a ton from being absolute granite. Rivera was knocked down by Almeida in that last fight but Almeida seems to knock down anyone that he goes multiple rounds with. The guy has great striking but does so at the behest of getting clipped himself a lot. At -160, I'll probably see where the line goes but the FGTD line is very low for a BW fight with guys that haven't been finishing guys at crazy high rates lately.

[Hugo de Naranja]

Is he really a huge puncher at 135 though? Rivera's power is underrated IMO. You can look at him and see how short and thick he is (similar build to Lineker). When he sits down on his shots like he did against Almeida, he packs some solid power.

Yes! He Knocked Out Gamburyan and Knocked Down Moraes. At Flyweight, he had 5 KO/TKO wins including guys like Dillashaw (only time he has ever been stopped by strikes), Moraga (only time he has ever been stopped by strikes too), and Formiga. He also Knocked Down Mighty Mouse multiple times in their first fight.

[TPowell]

If I had ANY confidence in Condit coming into this fight locked in and with a clear head, I'd pound the hell out of anything less than -250. You don't beat Carlos Condit on the feet (Ignoring you if you think Lawler won that fight) and Magny's wrestling/grappling isn't sharp enough to win this one for him. He may land a TD or two but I doubt he does anything with them and when they get to the feet, Carlos will use that volume and diverse striking to overwhelm Magny, maybe a finish even. I don't want to do much tape study for this though because it doesn't matter as much as if Condit has 1 foot out the door already.

[JIBBBY]

Seems like a pretty likely outcome. Doubt Rivera can finish my boy Lineker but he is very solid and could take advantage of the timidity that Lineker showed in the Vera fight. Good observations T!

If they just stand and trade in the pocket I give the advantage to your boy Lineker.. Rivera is as tough as they come with a good chin himself but JL is even more solid when trading.. Talk about a granite chin JL is just that....

[TPowell]

If they just stand and trade in the pocket I give the advantage to your boy Lineker.. Rivera is as tough as they come with a good chin himself but JL is even more solid when trading.. Talk about a granite chin..

More like titanium after that TJ fight. I'm telling you guys, something happened after that TJ fight with him. He comes back against Vera throwing spinning kicks and just staring at a guy who can't throw a punch if his life depended on it.

[JIBBBY]

More like titanium after that TJ fight. I'm telling you guys, something happened after that TJ fight with him. He comes back against Vera throwing spinning kicks and just staring at a guy who can't throw a punch if his life depended on it.

So what is your final play and call on that fight Tpow?

UFC 219 - Bantamweight 3 rounds - T-Mobile Arena - Las Vegas, Nevada - PPV
Sat 12/30		1201 John Lineker		+165	o2½ -185
11:00PM		1202 Jimmie Rivera		-190	u2½ +160

John Lineker vs Jimmie Rivera - Bantamweight 3 rounds - UFC 219
Sat 12/30		1203 Lineker / Rivera goes 3 round distance		-160
11:00PM		1204 Fight won’t go 3 round distance		+120
Sat 12/30		1205 Lineker wins inside distance		+400
11:00PM		1206 Not Lineker inside distance		-600
Sat 12/30		1207 Lineker wins by 3 round decision		+328
11:00PM		1208 Not Lineker by 3 round decision		-482
Sat 12/30		1209 Rivera wins inside distance		+250
11:00PM		1210 Not Rivera inside distance		-350
Sat 12/30		1211 Rivera wins by 3 round decision		+144
11:00PM		1212 Not Rivera by 3 round decision		-184
Sat 12/30		1213 Lineker / Rivera draw		+7500
11:00PM		1214 Fight not a draw		-20000

[TPowell]

I like Rivera by DEC at +144 as my standard play

I'll definitely have the OVER 2.5 (-185) in a parlay somewhere though. Have to go over the rest of the card. Maybe even toss in that -350 on Rivera NOT ITD as well on a parlay. Lineker can be a hard guy to beat on the scorecards with his exciting style so the OVER covers a tight decision as well

[JIBBBY]

I like Rivera by DEC at +144 as my standard play

I'll definitely have the OVER 2.5 (-185) in a parlay somewhere though. Have to go over the rest of the card. Maybe even toss in that -350 on Rivera NOT ITD as well on a parlay. Lineker can be a hard guy to beat on the scorecards with his exciting style so the OVER covers a tight decision as well

The over and or distance prop are probably a lock that's for sure.. Both these dudes are extremely hard to finish.. I see it going the distance.. I'd have to say I also think Rivera out points JL as well...

There is a slight chance JL can get the KO if they just stand and start trading round after round though.. I think Rivers's chin will give out first..

1203 Lineker / Rivera goes 3 round distance

-160

[TPowell]

The over and or distance prop are probably a lock that's for sure.. Both these dudes are extremely hard to finish.. I see it going the distance.. I'd have to say I also think Rivera out points JL as well...

There is a slight chance JL can get the KO if they just stand and start trading round after round though.. I think Rivers's chin will give out first..

1203 Lineker / Rivera goes 3 round distance

-160

I'm more worried about a flush body shot than a head shot honestly from Lineker. If Lineker tries to bully his way into the pocket, Rivera should be able to change levels and take him down. Before I get too big on this total, I'll need to check out some ground footage from both guys to make sure a SUB isn't a realistic thing in this fight if Rivera gets him down.

[JollyRogerMMA]

Rivera -190 2 Units I think Lineker has a punchers chance and Rivera does get dropped but I believe Rivera wins a DEC 7 of 10.

[Hugo de Naranja]

I'm more worried about a flush body shot than a head shot honestly from Lineker. If Lineker tries to bully his way into the pocket, Rivera should be able to change levels and take him down. Before I get too big on this total, I'll need to check out some ground footage from both guys to make sure a SUB isn't a realistic thing in this fight if Rivera gets him down.

Rivera did lose a TUF fight to Dennis Bermudez, I think by GnP TKO.

[Hugo de Naranja]

Rivera -190 2 Units I think Lineker has a punchers chance and Rivera does get dropped but I believe Rivera wins a DEC 7 of 10.

Why not just bet Rivera Decision if you think he wins a Decision 7/10, implied probability of (-233)?

[JIBBBY]

I'm more worried about a flush body shot than a head shot honestly from Lineker. If Lineker tries to bully his way into the pocket, Rivera should be able to change levels and take him down. Before I get too big on this total, I'll need to check out some ground footage from both guys to make sure a SUB isn't a realistic thing in this fight if Rivera gets him down.

Good point Tpow.. JL does like to work the body.. I forgot about that..

[TPowell]

Rivera did lose a TUF fight to Dennis Bermudez, I think by GnP TKO.

Didn't know that but I see that was in 2011 at FW. I'll do some digging on the UFC page to see ground activity and then check it out on Fight pass

[firekillex]

Bermudez is one of the best 45ers imo his chin / defense is just lacking a bit
im pretty sure Bermudez beat max holloway to hasnt he??

[Hugo de Naranja]

Bermudez is one of the best 45ers imo his chin / defense is just lacking a bit
im pretty sure Bermudez beat max holloway to hasnt he??

Yeah but it was a straight robbery.

http://mmadecisions.com/decision/424...C28EC38058F174

[TPowell]

Rewatched the Iuri fight. Rivera was coming forward Lineker style in this fight and causing issues for Iuri. He ended the first 2 rounds with TD's in the final minute to seal them which is nice to see. I think fight IQ and willingness to win is the big difference in this fight. Rivera seems to have a good idea of where he stands in rounds at all times. Not worried about any SUB in this fight though. Rivera will use his reactive wrestling when Lineker tries to pressure just to give himself the edge on the feet.

[TPowell]

1 fight down. On to Cyborg/Holm tomorrow. I've heard a VERY interesting angle that makes me lean towards Cyborg ITD. When Holm is retreating and using her boxing defensively, she HAS to plant her feet to throw a punch (even defensively). Obviously this will NOT work against someone with the power and technique of Cyborg.