[Sato]

decision fest last night, but some interesting scraps
smolka is to weak for the weight class, id suggest he packs some muscle on and move up tbh
khabib vs big ferg is what everybody needs to see
cyborg vs nunes is a very good matchup
esparza showed shes improved her standup slightly and Calvillo isnt at elite status
condit didnt look GREAT but he showed he still has some left for fun matchups
and myles jury looks like a solid top 10 prospect still would like to see him versus Yair or Ricardo lamas

Conor Vs. Ferguson must happen in the 1st quarter of 2018. Dana is about to blow up. ****** himself by making Conor filthy rich. The winner has to face Khabib. The loser of the title fight faces Edson.

[JIBBBY]

I actually ended up winning a little bit with this event after looking it all over.. Not alot though, just few bucks.. Had a good run at the end there until the final fight with Cyborg winning it by decision.. That blew up alot of my profits. I'm not happy but I'll take it.. Better then breaking even or even losing.. A win is a win...

Really thought I had a chance at killing this event though as I caught fire and was hitting some good props down the stretch there.. Wasn't ment to be though... Risked to much with the Holly Holm by KO hedged with the Cyborg wins ITD props...

[jtoler]

When i say Vegas i mean gambling world wide. I guess i just use that term "Vegas" for some strange reason. Let me show u something. Look at some of the horrible decisions that have happen. Im not talking about shit fights. Im talking about big betting fights. You will find a lot of those same judges on those fights. That guy Sal something seems to be on every big fight. In boxing you have Jerry Roth, Moretti, and two others i can't think of on the top of my head. Why u think Benson Henderson kept that title so long. Nobody was betting this fuk but sure as hell he was getting every close decision. A guy like Frankie Edgar everyone loves to bet. After BJ he couldn't buy a decision. Think what you want. Heck i remember a time i told a site that i was gonna predict a game and show them who would stiff the game and how it would happen. You know what happen? It went exactly how i said it would. You know what guys said to me? I got lucky. The certain quarterback just had a bad game. The same guy who had three terrific games until he played a shitty team. Watch tomorrow in the NFL how the teams that have to win struggle. flacco might be the biggest crook since Brett Favre. Watch him keep that game inside the number. Watch Seattle struggle and the biggest crook of them all Matt Ryan most likely won't cover and i even doubt if he wins. This same prick in the superbowl was snapping the ball with 23 seconds left on the clock when they were up big, to let the all American boy Brady win that game. Same Ryan taking horrible sacks. Fumbling in key spots. He went from having a good game to forgetting how to even play the game all in one game lol. Honestly i don't care if anyone believes me. I know im right and only one in ten would agree with me. Heck i even had times where nitwits wanted to fist fight me because they didn't like me talking about their hero's like this. Coaches, targeted players and refs are all in cahoots to fuk the bettors. I always wondered what the payoff was for these guys fixing games. Well beside the league making billions off this cheating these certain atheletes seem to always get these cushy tv jobs. The latest was Romo. I knew when that stiff was gonna tank a game almost as easily as when i see Flacco and Rivers tank one. Rivers will end up with one of those tv gigs just like the super crook Fouts did.

I wouldnt necessarily go that far Thor, but everything isnt always on the up and up in sports, think we can all agree on that. Kerm doesnt believe in anything shady happening at any time with anything, youll never get through to him. Ive heard on NFL tickets it says for entertainment purposes only, why would you put that there unless as a determent for potential law suits.

[Hugo de Naranja]

As good as people say ATT is, what a shit job of sticking with a bad game plan.

For the Calvillo fight? She trains at Team Alpha Male. Esparza is at Team Oyama.

[Hugo de Naranja]

Anyone else think it's ironic UFC now trying to push Red Fauxhawk up through their ranks, while word on the street was they treated Larkin like dirt so he left. This guy reminds me of a raw, way less technical, poor man's version of Lorenz Larkin. First round put me to sleep.

I like the comparison.

[Hugo de Naranja]

-3.5 cashes wish ease. I think you have to play Khabib on the points spread. He's just so damn vicious. Huge night for me, +6 units on 11 units bet

Nice hit on the -3.5 T!

[Hugo de Naranja]

Yep I said the same thing. Without the kicking game, Barbosa had to land a big knee or elbow in close to win this one. Khabib is too smothering to get those kicks off and after that first TD, you are too scared/tired/amazed to throw anymore

He landed a couple big shots but Khabib just walked through them without issue. Impressive to say the least.

[Hugo de Naranja]

Holy shit, all that nervous as penetrate pacing got me scrambling to hedge my bets like a muthafucka

She does that in the corner before all of her fights.

[Hugo de Naranja]

im watching a supposedly boxing champ not really out boxing an mma girl

Holm's hands have surprisingly never looked great in the UFC given her pedigree.

[Hugo de Naranja]

Has anyone ever seen Cyborg get hurt, or at least put in a bad spot in any of her fights? Even once?

Cyborg got Knocked Down by Jorina Baars (42-0-3 Muay Thai fighter) in a Muay Thai fight en route to a UD loss in a pretty solid fight.

[Hugo de Naranja]

Cyborg fixed her cardio by counter striking instead of pushing forward all the time in her previous fights.

She did not "fix" her cardio. It has always been excellent. She also has fought more measured in all of her UFC fights than she did in Strikeforce/Invicta.

[Hugo de Naranja]

I think Cyborg won every round. Most media outlets probably have it 50-45 or 49-46.

http://mmadecisions.com/decision/872...33F935D2D5F242

[Hugo de Naranja]

I judged it cyborg 50-45. Cashed anyway for me, my book doesn't offer -5.5. Didn't put a bet on magny/condit, regret that right now. Lost on diakese with most of you. Positive night for me but I wanted bigger.

Some great cappers on this board. I usually only bet main card, as I don't know prelim fighters like you guys do.

Glad to hear you had a winning night Slevin! Keep up the good work.

[Hugo de Naranja]

that wouldve probably been the worst title fight robbery in UFC history if that happened
literally Holm only won the clinch battles and she just held her on the cage and pushed off after 10 seconds , other then that she got outlanded and by a big margin on damage imo

It's not like that was effective clinch offense either. She was just wall-and-stalling.

[Hugo de Naranja]

Ended year (actually since I started tracking in July) up 42 units.

Bet $71k and profit of $7.87k for an average return of 11% of amount wagered.

Ended this month down $2k though so that hurt a bit.

Some other fun stats:

ML betting returns 34% of amount wagered
Point spread betting returns 36.3% of amount wagered
Over/under return 12.4% of amount wagered
Props returned -21.2% of amount wagered
Live betting returns 43.4% of amount wagered


Looks like I need to stop playing props!

Great job Turbo. Very impressive work this year. You're one of the sharpest cappers on this forum.

[Hugo de Naranja]

UFC 219: Cyborg vs. Holm Picks:
Mark De La Rosa Unanimous Decision (30-27, 29-28 x2)
Matheus Nicolau Unanimous Decision (30-27 x3)
Marvin Vettori Round 3 Submission (Guillotine Choke) -> Majority Draw
Myles Jury Unanimous Decision (30-27 x3)
Khalil Rountree Round 1 KO (Punch)
Neil Magny Split Decision (29-28 x2, 28-29)
Cynthia Calvillo Round 2 Submission (Rear-Naked Choke)
Marc Diakiese Unanimous Decision (30-27. 29-28 x2)
Edson Barboza Round 1 KO (Flying Knee)
Cris Cyborg Round 3 TKO (Punches)

[Hugo de Naranja]

UFC 219: Cyborg vs. Holm

Fight Pass Prelims:

Fight #1: Elliott vs. De La Rosa (DEBUT)
De La Rosa (+175) -1u
De La Rosa Submission (+711) -.5u

Hedge:
Elliott Submission (+593) +2.965u

Result: Tim Elliott Round 2 Submission (Anaconda Choke)
Fight: +1.465u
Card: +1.465u

Fox Sports 1 Prelims:

Fight #2: Nicolau vs. Smolka
Nicolau Submission (+799) -.5u

Hedge:
Smolka ITD (+625) -.5u

Result: Matheus Nicolau Unanimous Decision (30-26 x2, 30-25)
Fight: -1u
Card: +0.465u

Fight #3: Akhmedov vs. Vettori
Vettori Submission (+712) -1u

Result: Majority Draw (29-28 Vettori, 28-28 x2)
Fight: -1u
Card: -0.535u

Fight #4: Jury vs. Glenn
Jury -3.5 (+150) +1.5u

Result: Myles Jury Unanimous Decision (30-27 x3)
Fight: +1.5u
Card: +0.965u

Fight #5: Rountree vs. Oleksiejczuk (DEBUT)
Rountree Round 1 (-125) -1.25u

Hedge:
Oleksiejczuk Submission (+1325) -.25u

Result: Michal Oleksiejczuk Unanimous Decision (30-27 x3)
Fight: -1.5u
Card: -0.535u

Main Card:

Fight #6: Condit vs. Magny
Magny (+140) +1.4u
Magny Decision (+320) +3.2u

Hedge:
Condit KO/TKO (+351) -.5u

Result: Neil Magny Unanimous Decision (30-27 x2, 29-28)
Fight: +4.1u
Card: +3.565u

Fight #7: Calvillo vs. Esparza
Calvillo Submission (+300) -1.5u

Hedge(s):
Esparza Decision (+375) +3.75u
Esparza Submission (+1690) -.25u

Result: Carla Esparza Unanimous Decision (29-28 x3)
Fight: +2u
Card: +5.565u

Fight #8: Diakiese vs. Hooker
Diakiese Decision (+175) -1u
Diakiese Round 1 (+475) -.5u

Hedge:
Hooker ITD (+500) +3.75u

Result: Dan Hooker Round 3 Submission (Guillotine Choke)
Fight: +2.25u
Card: +7.815u

Fight #9: Nurmagomedov vs. Barboza
Barboza Scorecards = No Action (+240) +0u
Barboza (+248) -4u
Nurmagomedov+Barboza Draw (+8000) -.1u

Hedge:
Nurmagomedov Submission (+350) -1u

Added:
Barboza (+310) -1u
Nurmagomedov KO/TKO (+385) -1u

Result: Khabib Nurmagomedov Unanimous Decision (30-25 x2, 30-24)
Fight: -7.1u
Card: +0.715u

Fight #10: Cyborg (C) vs. Holm
Cyborg KO/TKO (-110) -5.5u
Cyborg+Holm Under 2.5 (+240) -1u
Cyborg Decision (+437) +2.185u
Cyborg Unanimous Decision (+455) +4.55u
Cyborg Submission (+809) -.75u

Hedge(s):
Holm ITD (+940) -.5u
Holm KO/TKO (+1300) -1u

Result: Cris Cyborg Unanimous Decision (49-46, 48-47 x2)
Fight: -2.015u
Card: -1.3u

Straight Parlays:
Diakiese/Rountree (+100) -3.03u
Nicolau/Jury (+123) +1.23u

Results: See Above
Fights: -1.8u
Card: -3.1u

Prop Parlays:
Rivera+Lineker Over 2.5/Cyborg -5.5 (+123) -2.5u
Akhmedov+Vettori Starts R3/Rountree ITD (+138) -1u
Nicolau/Akhmedov+Vettori Starts R3 (+144) +1.44u
De La Rosa/Nicolau -3.5/Akhmedov+Vettori Starts R3 (+994) -.25u
Calvillo/Diakiese/Barboza/Cyborg ITD (+1216) -.5u
Jury -3.5/Rountree Round 1/Magny Decision (+1439) -.25u

Results: See Above
Fights: -3.06u
Card: -6.16u

Live-Betting:
Akhmedov (+100) +0u
Esparza (+150) +.75u
Condit (+400) -.5u

Results: Akhmedov+Vettori Draw, Esparza Wins, Condit Loses
Fights: +0.25u
Card: -5.91u

Full Card Props:
Over 5.5 Fights Go Distance (+155) +1.9375u
Over 6.5 Fights Go Distance (+440) +2.2u
Cavillo Fastest Sub (+500) -.5u
Over 7.5 Fights Go Distance (+1425) +3.5625u
Over 8.5 Fights Go Distance (+7500) -.1u

FOTN: Cyborg+Holm
POTN: Nurmagomedov, Elliott
Fastest Submission: Elliott R2 (1:41)
Fastest KO: None
Decisions: 8
Results: See Above
Fights: +7.1u
Final Card Total = +1.19u

Multi-Event Parlays:
Anders -3.5/Cyborg (+103) +1.03u
Torres/Cyborg (+119) +5.95u
Torres/Jingliang/Cyborg (+148) +2.96u

Results: Cyborg Wins
Fights: +9.94u
Multi-Event Parlays = +9.94u

[Kermit]

I wouldnt necessarily go that far Thor, but everything isnt always on the up and up in sports, think we can all agree on that. Kerm doesnt believe in anything shady happening at any time with anything, youll never get through to him. Ive heard on NFL tickets it says for entertainment purposes only, why would you put that there unless as a determent for potential law suits.

I know that there is some shady shit going on in the world. The problem is that you think everything is a conspiracy.

[jtoler]

I know that there is some shady shit going on in the world. The problem is that you think everything is a conspiracy.

That is not true Kerm, only time I voice an opinion is when I know for a fact something is contrived.

[Shagdogy]

Cyborg got Knocked Down by Jorina Baars (42-0-3 Muay Thai fighter) in a Muay Thai fight en route to a UD loss in a pretty solid fight.

Hugo has a damn encyclopedic memory for MMA... I bet you barely had to look up the details of that comment.

[JAKEPEAVY21]

Conor Vs. Ferguson must happen in the 1st quarter of 2018. Dana is about to blow up. ****** himself by making Conor filthy rich. The winner has to face Khabib. The loser of the title fight faces Edson.

I highly doubt Conor would ever take that fight. It would have happened by now if that is what he wanted. He's no dummy and knows Khabib is a stylistic nightmare for him. Khabib would mop the floor with him and would probably go the distance on purpose just to give him a longer more excruciating beat down.

[Hugo de Naranja]

Hugo has a damn encyclopedic memory for MMA... I bet you barely had to look up the details of that comment.

I watched that one pretty recently so I didn't haha. A fight worth checking out. I think it's available on YouTube.

[Thor4140]

I wouldnt necessarily go that far Thor, but everything isnt always on the up and up in sports, think we can all agree on that. Kerm doesnt believe in anything shady happening at any time with anything, youll never get through to him. Ive heard on NFL tickets it says for entertainment purposes only, why would you put that there unless as a determent for potential law suits.

i was right on everything i said but Ryan and i bailed on that bet because people were actually betting Carolina in a closely bet game. I was getting tired the night i wrote that post but i was also gonna say Buffalo would sneak in somehow because they are getting a new stadium in a year or two. That is why that shithole made it and may even make a run in these playoffs. Looked who stiffed. Brees heavy bet on New Orleans. The two teams that had to win Flacco and Wilson both lose with lopsided betting, The teams that needed to win Titans and the bills are to shitholes who nobody bet. Maybe Buff but sure as hell not the Titans. It goes on and on. Wash rinse repeat. Again world wide this is a trillion dollar industry. Season tickets, TV contracts, Gambling, etc.., Where there is money there will always be shady shit in this country. This is why the states are having a horrible time getting sports betting in their states. Until the leagues get their cut like do in Vegas this is always gonna be hard. Im done talking about this. Im actually an idiot talking about this because the more people who think like me, it will make my job just so much harder. Just gets frustrating to me to watch people getting cheated out of their hard earn money and they don't know why the fuk that is. It is always a bad ref, a bad judge. Blah blah blah. Almost all of these bad calls always seem to go to the books. Imagine that. I think all these sports are rigged one way or another. Only one that isnt is the UFC until it goes to the judges. It is why most fights i bet are small bet fights or fights i have a legitimate shot at a knockout. I have been on a lot of those horrible decisions in big bet fights. No need to try that anymore.

[slikec]

I watched that one pretty recently so I didn't haha. A fight worth checking out. I think it's available on YouTube.

Indeed great fight:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E5QDryuUQKo

[Hugo de Naranja]

Indeed great fight:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E5QDryuUQKo

Thanks for posting the link!

[Demonata]

So happy it's a new year. Thank you guys for all the useful info and talking ufc with me. Sbr is a big part of my life because none of my friends in real life even like ufc so it's the only way i get to talk about it during fights etc or i pretty much am watching it by myself. I lost a ton of money but still alive and that's better than money. Thanks guys for always having a new ufc thread. I hope we all make a lot of money in ufc this year. I know I'm an asshole at times and I'm sorry about that. I hope everyone had a good new years and continue to post. You help me learn a lot.

[Hugo de Naranja]

So happy it's a new year. Thank you guys for all the useful info and talking ufc with me. Sbr is a big part of my life because none of my friends in real life even like ufc so it's the only way i get to talk about it during fights etc or i pretty much am watching it by myself. I lost a ton of money but still alive and that's better than money. Thanks guys for always having a new ufc thread. I hope we all make a lot of money in ufc this year. I know I'm an asshole at times and I'm sorry about that. I hope everyone had a good new years and continue to post. You help me learn a lot.

This game is all about learning and making adjustments. Best of luck in the new year!

[Demonata]

This game is all about learning and making adjustments. Best of luck in the new year!

Thanks man same to you. I think the main reason i don't do prop bets is because it would confuse the hell out of me and i just like cheering for winner than how they win lol. If i bet as many props as you i would have no idea what was going on lol. Props are more profitable in the long run it seems though, same with live hedging.

[Beelzebubzy]

happy new year

[RussianMike]

UFC Judges in America are not fixing scores for freaking prop bets from an offshore book's prop bet.

And if players were fixing games like you say, they would be coming out of the woodwork like termites writing books and doing interviews about the corruption in the league when they are flat broke off of their ass. Look how many NFL and NBA players are out of the league and don't have 2 nickles to rub together. Now if these guys were part of a grand scheme of cheating and fixing games, you know damn well that they would be spilling their guts to make a buck so that they wouldn't have to go back to the shitty run down car wash hat they are working at.

Sure Joe Flacco may get a cushy TV gig after he retires, but Travis Henry still can't pay the child support he owes for his 11 kids.

Was JaMarcus Russell in on the NFL football fixing too?

Think about it.

Not sure if I agree with that either. Have a personal hunch about the MacGregor Alvarez fight. But point is, as much money as is involved in betting and beyond betting, the UFC franchise, nobody is fixing fights based on point totals. But just my opinion, that MacGregor/Alvarez fight looked so off, I can definitely see Dana maybe greasing Alvarez's pockets some just to have the entire fight remain standing. But I also believe in Flat Earth, so take that as you will.