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Also, Jingliang has been rocked in his last two fights. I trust his chin, especially against Ottow, but it's not one of those chins that can march through anything and everything. I think -200 is a fair price. That's why I'm on him at -180 and prob won't add anything else.
Who does everyone favor in Caceres X Wang Guan ???? I watched tape and think Caceres has options in the fight ... Wang has 1 way to win thoughts ?
Song vs. Khandare:
Interesting fight - Khandare is jacked for this weight class, but if you look at his fights he has looked much different in 2016-17 than he did back in his last win in 2013 before a few years off. In that 2013 fight vs. Amin, Bharat looked like an animal who will run through you, grab body lock and throw you around. He also had a TON of bacne on his back and was probably roided up. More recently, in his fight against Faress he looked much less explosive. One thing is for sure, his hands are terrible always.
Song is super young but he has real nice striking speed and looks like he has some solid grappling ability as well. His main problem is that he lacks the power/explosiveness to put guys away. He lost his fight vs. Polpudnikov simply because he couldn't make Polpudnikov respect him.
This fight looks like Song is the better fighter, vs. Khandare who is the more powerful and aggressive fighter. I think Khandare may be off the juice now which could make a huge difference for him. Line seems a bit right. Just capped this one and thought it was interesting how I feel like I've seen two versions of Khandare, the old and the recent.
* This would be one where I would consider a bet on Song after the weigh ins if it looks like he will be close to Khandare in size/strength or if Khandare looks a bit deflated.
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Cool I'll take a look at the first round of the Kunimoto fight again before laying any more money down. I was actually going to look at the -3.5 line so any indication that Ottow can keep it close would be very helpful. Thanks for the feedback!Originally Posted by Shagdogy
Yup. It's mostly that I think that's the real picture of Ottow since it's his only fight with full prep in the UFC.
Any thoughts on Sherman/Abdurakhimov? Seems like people I read think more of Abdurakhimov than I do. I don't see him winning the striking exchanges at all, but maybe i'm having a hard time capping his style.
Also, I just capped Nash/Song and I think that Nash is a definite parlay piece at -300. His wrestling advantage should be too big and Song's hands just can't get the job done. He has to incorporate kicks which will only add to more takedowns for Nash. Song has a good chin, but he's hittable with left hooks which is one of Nash's best strikes. After two tough outs with Jingliang and Roberts I think Nash breaks through here. His chin is a bit of a worry, but Song's hands just don't scare me all that much.
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It looks like Song stepped in on a week's notice for this fight to replace Pingyuan Liu. Might not be an issue if he was already preparing for a fight. It's odd because it looks like Song was fighting every other month in 2016, but there's a 7 month gap since his last fight.
https://www.mmamania.com/2017/11/20/...m-shanghai-mma
We want might want to figure out what Song was doing recently before considering him (injury? cancelled bouts? etc.).
Ottow actually had full fight prep for the Burkman fight. It says he had two week's notice, but he actually was scheduled to fight the following weekend in a different promotion. Ottow was scheduled to fight at 170 whereas Burkman was scheduled to fight at 155, and the two fought at 170 I think.
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Definitely. Hard to find that kind of news on these fighters though.
Looks like this card starts around 3 am EST.
I believe that fight took place at 155 but you're 100% right about him being in camp for a different opponent when he was called up for that bout.
https://www.tapology.com/fightcenter...4278-zak-ottow
I just checked the tale of the tape and both guys weighed in at 171 lbs. I think it's in really small print on the Tapology page too. My guess is that they couldn't find any lightweights in time and then asked Burkman if he wanted to fight Ottow at WW. Burkman probably though he could avoid a hard weight cut and beat Ottow despite being a weight class smaller so he agreed to fight at 170. Probably not smart but I think he was 30 seconds away from winning the decision in the 3rd if he just kept Ottow on the ground and didn't get taken down himself.
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Turbo and Hugo - No thoughts on Sherman? He's got 6.33 SLpM compared to 2.48 for Abdurakhimov. This is as big of an advantage as you'll usually see in this area. Sherman also has 100% TDD in the UFC and Abdurakhimov is not a well known takedown artist or even a better athlete than Sherman. Sherman also is younger, has an iron chin, has 15lbs and 2" of reach. I don't understand why he's the underdog here. What am I missing?
You're right it was at WW after all. Guess tapology had that one wrong in the main box with the small print explanation below.
Last edited by Hugo de Naranja; 11-23-17 at 05:50 PM.
Still watching tape on this one. I think the odds are due to competition they've beaten. Sherman went to war with Rashad Coulter and couldn't finish Damian Grabowski. Abdurakhimov took a close Split Decision over Walt Harris and won the first three rounds against Lewis before getting TKOed (the worst fight I ever attended live).
MMA math could be another reason for the current line since Abdurakhimov beat Harris and Harris KOed Sherman.
Yeah I get the MMA math equation but Sherman has shown progress in every fight since heading to Jackson's. I don't hold the Grabowski fight against him because he comfortably won every round and did a good job staying fluid with his strikes and not chasing the KO. Meanwhile Abdurakhimov is only getting older and is a known quantity. He has looked pretty much exactly the same every UFC fight. He can catch a kick every now and then. He can land a few right hands which he throws one at a time, low volume. He hasn't finished an opponent since 2011. His fight against Lewis was ugly as ugly gets, and Lewis is a MUCH different striker than Sherman. He loads up and telegraphs almost every strike, whereas Sherman has shown good variety and is able to mix his kicks up without giving many tells.
I also think the over 1.5 is a very solid parlay piece. Both fighters have good chins and Abdurakhimov loves to slow the pace down. Sherman has said in interviews that he won't chase his opponent around the cage.
Have not watched tape on that matchup yet but will probably spend some time tomorrow taking a look. Will let you know what I think soon.
Happy Thanksgiving guys!
I am still sure Kelvin wins but the man is letting doubt seep in with his weigh in 187 antics.
Muslim -180 1 Unit O 1 1/2 -115 .5 Units
Kelvin -260 5 Units 0 2 1/2 -110 .5 Units
Sherman +120 .5 Units 0 1 1/2 -210 .5 Units
Yan -150 . 5 units 0 2 1/2 -160 .5 Units
I really like Ottow. Gastelum looked bad at the weigh ins.
+415 Moraes? Wow. Khandare is also worth taking a look at +125.
MMA MANIA - Previews...
185 lbs.: Kelvin Gastelum (14-3) vs. Michael Bisping (30-8)
I’m going to go ahead and assume Bisping was still concussed when he decided to take this fight. Gastelum is a horrific matchup for “The Count” thanks to his wrestling, punching power, and endless cardio that can withstand Bisping’s wilting pace.
There really is no clear avenue of victory for Bisping against an opponent he can’t outbox, outwork, or wear down. His only real edge is in his size, but he’s not going to grind Gastelum down against the fence or on the mat; he has neither the inclination nor the wrestling skill to make that work the way Chris Weidman did.
Gastelum’s ceiling at middleweight remains in question after the way he got bodied in his last fight, but he’s lethal against those who can’t bulldoze him for the entire fight. He batters Bisping in short order.
Prediction: Gastelum by first-round TKO
170 lbs.: Li Jingliang (13-4) vs. Zak Ottow (15-4)
It’s been fun to watch Li go from an agonizingly dull grappler to one of the division’s most entertaining brawlers. He’s by far the most accomplished Chinese fighter in mixed martial arts and has a surprisingly effective wrestling and grappling game to complement those iron hands of his brick fists.
Ottow, who has gone to three consecutive split decisions, is well-rounded but not spectacular in any one area, which tends to lead to close fights. He doesn’t have any particular standout skill he can use to overwhelm Li, who also figures to be the physically stronger of the two by a fair margin.
Li just figures to be too much for him. Too strong, too durable, too powerful. He outfights Ottow on the mat and on the feet before eventually finding a home for his right hand.
Prediction: Li by second-round TKO
145 lbs.: Alex Caceres (13-10) vs. Wang Guan (19-1-1)
Let’s make one thing clear: Wang deserves to be in the UFC. He’s not just here to make the local fans happy. He is a legitimately dangerous, powerful striker with a history of brutal finishes.
I’m just not sure his grappling is up to snuff.
While Wang isn’t hopeless on the mat, his takedown defense is iffy and he’s not particularly adept at getting back to his feet. For all his faults and inconsistency, Caceres is a skilled and effective grappler when he has the skill and inclination to drag people to the mat.
Now, the most recent footage I could find of Wang against a decent opponent was from 2014, so he’s had the opportunity to improve, but the grappling disparity just looks a bit too big. He holds his own on the feet until Caceres catches on that striking’s a bad idea and dominates from top position.
Prediction: Caceres by unanimous decision
170 lbs.: Alex Garcia (14-4) vs. Muslim Salikhov (12-1)
Zabit Magomedsharipov is the top prospect in this card, but Salikhov is a close second. A multiple-time Sanda world champion and the first non-Chinese fighter to be crowned “King of Kung Fu,” he’s a straight-up beast on the feet. In the last year alone, he’s knocked out two UFC veterans with spinning kicks in a combined 2:37.
Oh, and he has lights-out power in his hands because why not.
Garcia is exactly the sort of opponent he should be fighting in his UFC debut to show us where Salikhov is at in his development as a full mixed martial artist. Garcia is a physical powerhouse with overpowering wrestling and bricks in his hands, though held back by a godawful gas tank and iffy striking technique.
Salikhov looks like he can wrestle as well, though, and will have a length advantage. If he’s the kind of special talent he looks like, he should be able to starch Garcia once “The Dominican Nightmare” starts losing explosiveness.
Prediction: Salikhov by second-round KO
145 lbs.: Zabit Magomedsheripov vs. Sheymon Moraes
A protege of Mark Henry, Zabit Magomedsheripov (12-1) emerged as one of the best prospects in the entire sport during an eight-fight, seven-finish run on the Russian scene that saw him earn and defend the ACB Featherweight title. He made his Octagon debut in September, showing off his striking and grappling skills before finishing late replacement Mike Santiago in the second.
He stands five inches taller than Sheymon Moraes (9-1) at 6’1.”
A strong Muay Thai pedigree carried Moraes to victory in his first seven professional bouts, although it wasn’t enough to save him from Marlon Moraes in his World Series of Fighting (WSOF) title shot. Moving back to Featherweight, he knocked out UFC veteran Robbie Peralta and upset the venerable Luis Palomino to earn a spot in UFC.
Five of his nine wins have come by form of knockout.
Magomedsheripov is for real — as far as Featherweight prospects, only recent signee Hakeem Dawodu comes close. His blend of acrobatic striking and quality wrestling, which he works on with the likes of Frankie Edgar and Edson Barboza, is as effective as it is eye-catching. I would be very surprised if Magomedsheripov wasn’t knocking on the door of a title shot by the end of 2019 at the latest.
Moraes is a beast in his own right, packing high-quality Muay Thai and finishing power, but he’s not great on the mat and has a bad habit of overcommitting to his punches. That’s a bad issue to have against someone with this much height and length, especially since Marlon Moraes exploited that weakness and is one of Magomedsheripov’s teammates. Magomedsheripov either rocks him on the counter or takes him down for a submission finish.
Prediction: Magomedsheripov via first-round submission
170 lbs.: Kenan Song vs. Bobby Nash
Following a loss to kickboxing standout Israel Adesanya, Kenan Song (11-3) rattled off six consecutive finishes, including five in the first round. He enters UFC on a losing streak, however, most recently suffering a body shot knockout loss to another terrific kickboxer in Brad Riddell. He officially owns six wins by submission and another four by (technical) knockout, although there’s some disagreement between Sherdog and Tapology that video evidence suggests favors Tapology’s interpretation.
Six wins — five of them by knockout — brought Bobby Nash (8-3) to UFC in January, where he lost an incredible brawl with Li Jingliang. A less-hectic sophomore match up with Danny Roberts appeared to be going his way before “Hot Chocolate” laid “Nashty” out with a counter left hand.
Nash went undefeated (10-0) as an amateur before making his pro debut in 2014.
Song is not bad, per se. There are no gaping flaws in his game and he’s at least capable everywhere. There’s just nothing that stands out about it, nothing to catch one’s eye or that he can lean on when the going gets tough.
Nash has legitimate power and good wrestling — he’s much better than a winless (0-2) UFC record would suggest. He overpowers Song wherever the fight goes, ultimately pounding him out.
Prediction: Nash via second-round technical knockout
115 lbs.: Kailin Curranvs. Xiaonan Yan
Kailin Curran (4-5) — who welcomed Paige VanZant to UFC back in 2014 — has struggled mightily to find her footing, going 1-5 overall in the world’s largest mixed martial arts (MMA) promotion. She currently finds herself on a three-fight losing streak, although she did put in a solid performance against the favored Aleksandra Albu in July.
She will give up an inch of height to Xiaonan Yan (7-1).
Yan tasted defeat in her third professional fight and, after getting back in the win column, stayed out of the cage for almost five years. She’s been brutally effective since her return, scoring the knockout in four out of five victories.
She has scored five (technical) knockouts in seven victories.
“Fury” is a good nickname for Yan — she fights angry, lobbing heavy punches and a side kick that’s clearly meant to damage instead of maintain range. If Stephen Thompson’s side kick is like a fencing thrust, hers is like being charged by a drugged-up Gaul with a spear poorly whittled out of a boat oar.
She’s sloppy enough with her hands that she leaves plenty of takedown openings, which Curran is ostensibly capable of exploiting, but Curran’s looked so utterly ineffective in UFC that I can’t put any faith in her. Either Curran sits in top position for most of the fight or Yan’s sheer aggression chews her up on the feet, and I’m guessing the latter.
Prediction: Yan via unanimous decision
135 lbs.: Yadong Song vs. Bharat Khandare
Nineteen-year-old Yadong Song (10-4) enters UFC as one of its youngest competitors, but brings with him four years of professional MMA experience. His current 3-1 run includes a decision over 13-4 Edgars Skrīvers and a good-looking first round knockout in 2016.
He steps in for the injured Pingyuan Liu on a week’s notice.
The first India-born fighter to join UFC, Bharat Khandare (5-2) racked up four submission wins and one (technical) knockout under the Super Fight League banner, fighting at both Bantamweight and Featherweight. The much more experienced Ahmed Faress proved a bridge too far, though, and submitted the wrestling specialist partway through the first round.
Three of his five stoppage wins have come in the first round.
Khandare is a physical powerhouse with strong wrestling and legitimately nasty work from top position, but I’m getting serious Karlos Vemola vibes. His striking is simply nowhere near polished enough to set up takedowns against quality opponents. Anyone with above-average footwork and distance management should be able to keep him swinging at air and charging into a pair of waiting underhooks.
Liu arguably fits that bill. Song does not.
“The Terminator” has power, speed and pretty much nothing else. He’s easy to hit, not terribly sharp with his striking, and not much of a wrestler. Unless he can catch Khandare coming in with something nasty, he’s going for a ride. With maybe three years of good training and careful matchmaking, Song could be UFC-worthy, but not yet. Khandare hits a high-amplitude slam before transitioning to mount and pounding away for the finish.
Prediction: Khandare via first-round technical knockout
265 lbs.: Chase Sherman vs. Shamil Abdurakhimov
Chase Sherman (11-3) stumbled out of the gate in UFC, getting jabbed to pieces by Justin Ledet and knocked into oblivion by Walt Harris in his first two appearances. “The Vanilla Gorilla” has since asserted himself as one to watch with a Fight of the Night slugfest against Rashad Coulter and decision over Polish veteran Damian Grabowski.
All but one of his ten knockout wins have come in the first round.
Shamil Abdurakhimov (17-4) had his own issues in his debut, a ground-and-pound stoppage loss to Timothy Johnson, but handily out-struck Anthony Hamilton and Walt Harris to earn a main event slot opposite Derrick Lewis. Despite early success, “Abrek” eventually slowed down and succumbed to “The Black Beast’s” devastating ground-and-pound.
He will give up two inches of arm and leg reach.
Sherman has undoubtedly improved in recent fights, showing a reasonably fluid striking style instead of the plodding headhunting from before. Stylistically, though, he’ll struggle with “Abrek,” who thrives against slower, come-forward sluggers with his footwork and long-range kicks.
The one caveat is that Abdurakhimov seems to wilt when things stop going his way, but he’s got enough gas in the tank for three good rounds and Sherman isn’t a good enough wrestler to mash him on the mat the way Lewis did. Abdurakhimov picks him off at range in a fight that’ll likely be closer on the scorecards than it is in the cage.
Prediction: Abdurakhimov by split decision
135 lbs.: Yanan ** vs. Gina Mazany
Bouncing between Bantamweight and Featherweight, Yanan ** (9-1) reeled off seven wins before running into future Invicta champion Yana Kunitskaya in the latter’s native Russia. She put the loss behind her with two stoppage wins in China, the most recent of which took place in March.
Six of her nine stoppage wins have come by form of knockout.
Gina Mazany (4-1) — who fell short against Julianna Pena on The Ultimate Fighter (TUF) 20 — stepped up on short notice to face Sara McMann in February after Liz Carmouche withdrew with an injury. Things quickly took a turn for the worse as Mazany not only missed weight, but tapped to an arm triangle just 74 seconds into the first round.
She will give up three inches of height to **.
** is aggressive, powerful and fun to watch. The issue is that she’s totally unproven — of her nine wins, only two came against an opponent with a win on their record (Meng Bo, who was 1-0 when they first met and 1-1 the second time). The one time she faced a legitimate Bantamweight, Kunitskaya dominated her on the mat.
Mazany’s record isn’t much better, but **’s struggles on the mat against Kunitskaya don’t fill me with confidence, although ** does do some good work from top position herself. This comes down to whoever hits the first takedown; I say it’s Mazany, who puts her away with ground-and-pound late in the first.
Prediction: Mazany via first-round technical knockout
145 lbs.: Wuliji Buren vs. Rolando Dy
Following an undefeated (6-0) start to his MMA career, Wuliji Buren (10-4) hit a rough patch that saw him go 1-4, including three stoppage losses. He has since won three straight, two by submission and one by slam.
He has submitted four opponents and (T)KOd another two.
Rolando Dy (8-6-1) made his name in the PXC promotion, taking standout Kyle Aguon to a pair of split decisions during his run. His UFC career hasn’t been quite as successful, suffering a technical knockout loss to Alex Caceres before dropping a close decision to Teruto Ishihara thanks to a point deduction for low blows.
“Dy Incredible” has knocked out and submitted two opponents apiece.
It’s hard to get a bead on Buren. The most recent fight of his I could find, a split decision loss to Dong Gyu Kim, he did so little that technical analysis is difficult. What I do know is that he’s lost to lesser fighters than Dy, often by stoppage, and doesn’t seem to have the power to crack his foe’s shaky chin.
Dy was a point deduction away from drawing with Teruto Ishihara — he’s not elite and doesn’t seem to have the potential to be, but he is a legitimately skilled striker with improving takedown defense. He roughs Buren up on the feet on his way to a decision victory.
Prediction: Dy via unanimous decision
Patrick Stewart YTD record -
Current UFC "Prelims" Prediction Record for 2017: 136-80-1 (1 NC)
Last edited by JIBBBY; 11-24-17 at 12:19 PM.
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Getting a little nervous... everyone I read has slight edge to Abdurakhimov, and I have Sherman favored comfortably.
China start time for this event is in them middle of the night for me out here on the west coast.. This is one event I doubt I'm gonna be watching live.. Place my bets and wake up in the morning and hope it all worked out. Sucks!!...
http://www.ufc.com/
Rolando Dy missed weight by 2 pounds.
Wonder if he could have an injury.
I went win 1u on Wuliji as the dog. He's got strong body locks and ground transitions. Does he have the strength to implement them against at least a decent opponent in Dy? Not sure. But now that Dy looks a bit tired at weigh ins, I'll give it a shot.
I favor Sherman .... Volume over 2 rounds should win the day. Cardio is my main concern I thiink he stuffs takedown attempts.
Well I bet what I saw... I didn't max bet anything, but Sherman is my largest bet tonight/tomorrow.
Against you on this one. The only concern I have with Dy here is that he "retired" for a little bit after his last fight so he might not be 100% in it. Skillset wise, I don't think Wuliji has really anything for him.
All right, here's my full card:
Buren +135, .75u
Yadong Song -140, 1.4u
Sherman +110, 3u
Guan +122, .82u
Jingliang -180, 1.8u
Nash + Mazany parlay +150, .9u
Nash + Sherman/Abdurakhimov o1.5 parlay -110, 1.5u
Good luck everyone.
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It's 11pm where I live now and we are 2 hours away from start time.. I'll try fellas...
Good luck to all as I post now if I pass out!!!....
I'm going with the MMA Mania picks mostly..
Going Gas ITD also.. I think Bispings is to old and his time is up.. Gas a younger buck on the up and up might represent is my thinking..
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UFC Fight Night 122: Bisping vs. Gastelum Picks:
Cyril Asker Round 1 TKO (Punches)
Rolando Dy Split Decision (29-28 x2, 28-29)
Yanan Woo Round 1 TKO (Punches)
Shamil Abdurakhimov Unanimous Decision (30-27 x3)
Song Yadong Round 1 Submission (Rear-Naked Choke)
Yan Xiaonan Round 1 TKO (Side Kick and Punches)
Bobby Nash Round 1 KO (Punch)
Zabit Magomedsharipov Round 2 Submission (Rear-Naked Choke)
Muslim Salikhov Round 1 KO (Spinning Back Kick to the Body)
Wang Guan Round 1 TKO (Punches)
Li Jingliang Round 2 KO (Punches)
Kelvin Gastelum Round 2 TKO (Punches)
UFC Fight Night 122: Bisping vs. Gastelum
Fight Pass Prelims:
Fight #1: Asker vs. Yaozong (DEBUT)
No Bet
Fight #2: Buren (DEBUT) vs. Dy
No Bet
Fight #3: Mazany vs. Yanan (DEBUT)
Yanan ITD (+331) .5u
Fight #4: Abdurakhimov vs. Sherman
Parlays
Fight #5: Khandare (DEBUT) vs. Yadong (DEBUT)
No Bet
Fight #6: Yan (DEBUT) vs. Curran
Yan ITD (+350) .5u
Fight #7: Nash vs. Kenan (DEBUT)
Nash KO/TKO (+154) 2u
Fight #8: Magomedsharipov vs. Moraes (DEBUT)
Magomedsharipov ITD (-125) 1.25u to win 1u
Magomedsharipov Submission (+270) .5u
Hedge:
Moraes KO/TKO (+885) .5u
Main Card:
Fight #9: Salikhov (DEBUT) vs. Garcia
Salikhov ITD (-115) 2.3u to win 2u
Salikhov Round 1 (+195) 1u
Hedge:
Garcia Submission (+695) .5u
Fight #10: Guan (DEBUT) vs. Caceres
Guan (+125) 2u
Guan ITD (+298) .5u
Fight #11: Jingliang vs. Ottow
Jingliang ITD (+207) 1u
Fight #12: Gastelum vs. Bisping
Gastelum KO/TKO (+105) 2u
Gastelum Submission (+491) .5u
Straight Parlays:
Yan/Jingliang (+177) 2u
Prop Parlays:
Abdurakhimov+Sherman Goes Distance/Gastelum -5.5 (+139) 2u
Asker+Hu WSR2/Dy/Yanan (+381) .25u
Abdurakhimov/Song/Yan (+388) .5u
Nash ITD/Magomedsharipov+Moraes WGD/Salikhov ITD (+450) .25u
Guan/Jingliang ITD/Gastelum ITD (+1022) .25u
Full Card Props:
Over 6.5 Fights Go Distance (+262) 1u
Magomedsharipov+Moraes FOTN (+500) .5u
Over 7.5 Fights Go Distance (+676) .5u
Over 6.5 KO/TKOs (+699) .5u
Multi-Event Parlays:
Torres/Jingliang/Cyborg (+148) 2u
comfortably? thats a rather larger mistake.
A HW Submission, you don't see that everyday.
We'll see. I seem to be on an island here so it could bite me in the ass. I just think Abdurakhimov is way too low volume, and not at all dangerous enough. But maybe he's just really good at dictating the fight to make it his kind of fight.
Did you see that the line flipped on Yanan/Mazany?
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Hugo de Naranja gave Shagdogy 1 Betpoint(s) for this post.
