[JollyRogerMMA]

New to SBR and I am trying to find Optimal Game Theory in betting MMA. Hopefully we can figure out how to best exploit weak lines in MMA using SBR as a discussion think tank. Ok Lets do this.


Where does everyone get Strikes thrown Per Minute ? (Not Strikes Landed Per Minute)


I believe this could be the most important stat when deciding a fight in certain situations.

[GoBlue77]

lmao

come on kid...seriously

[TPowell]

Outside of doing the math yourself, I'm not really sure. I'll do some research though. Does help indicate volume in tight fights

[JollyRogerMMA]

I agree if you are likely to go to a DEC, Volume / Presser fighter will win (if standing ) in a tight fight even if his SplM lower. I am pretty sure this is true to bet against say a Dodson v. Lineker as an example .... Dodsons Volume is not there and can lose decisions just because the guy is not looking as busy.

[JollyRogerMMA]

Trying to improve my game as well as maybe have a small insight myself. New to SBR so do not get the LMAO from GoBlue77 isn't this what SBR is for to improve everyones game and take the books money ?

[JollyRogerMMA]

Ya I am seriously trying to Alpha my graph and do this for a living .. what was so dumb about the Strikes thrown / not strikes landed question .... not seeing on tapology / fightmetric / the underground but I have heard people bring up strikes thrown like in boxing. With compu box you get thrown and landed which can give you a good idea who wins if fight goes to DEC ....... the busier fighter.

[Shagdogy]

High SLpM and low striking accuracy % would imply high volume output. Both stats available on fightmetric.

But there's not one stat that's going to win you bets. Gotta see what their numbers are, and their physical tools, but then also watch fights and see how they use them. Matchups matter.

[JollyRogerMMA]

I agree ..... I think pace / volume is just a useful tool if you are on the fence about a fight and believe the fight will go to a DEC it helps to have numbers to back up the fighter you want to bet. The SplM can also be wrong if fighter is older and pace has dropped off considerably or his fighting style has changed. I try to watch a least 20 hours of tape per card minimum. Tape is King IMO.

[JollyRogerMMA]

Some numbers like take down attempts and defense also give you an idea what you should see but do not tell entire story match ups are king.

[JollyRogerMMA]

My most important "Stats" Pre fight tape.

Age

Significant reach over "2

SplM

Takedown Attempts

[JollyRogerMMA]

I will list my most important attributes tomorrow not understanding why everyone viewed Killing the Game thread but betting strategy is pure disinterest ?

[Shagdogy]

Just don't think you can break it down any particular set of stats or attributes. Sure, there's many things that help, but there are so many intangibles that you really have to develop a feel for fighters and fight styles and learn to develop your eye for those things and then trust it.

I love fighters that have both a reach and hand speed advantage in their particular matchup, for example, but I could never bet just on that alone. What if they have a long reach but don't utilize it? Some fighters don't have reach on paper but fight very long. Some have horrible TDD and can't keep the fight where they can thrive. Some fighters are extremely fast but fight with a spastic nature and waste a lot of movement and precision. There are so many variables that you just have to put the time to be able to cross reference them in your head as you watch tape and get a solid feel.

I would imagine there's not any action in this thread because it seems like you want a one size fits all formula for success and there just isn't one.

[Hugo de Naranja]

Just don't think you can break it down any particular set of stats or attributes. Sure, there's many things that help, but there are so many intangibles that you really have to develop a feel for fighters and fight styles and learn to develop your eye for those things and then trust it.

I love fighters that have both a reach and hand speed advantage in their particular matchup, for example, but I could never bet just on that alone. What if they have a long reach but don't utilize it? Some fighters don't have reach on paper but fight very long. Some have horrible TDD and can't keep the fight where they can thrive. Some fighters are extremely fast but fight with a spastic nature and waste a lot of movement and precision. There are so many variables that you just have to put the time to be able to cross reference them in your head as you watch tape and get a solid feel.

I would imagine there's not any action in this thread because it seems like you want a one size fits all formula for success and there just isn't one.

That's Max Holloway for sure. Dude has T-rex arms but you wouldn't know it with how much people talk about his "super long reach"

[Sato]

MMA betting is the most variance heavy. The track record from the oddsmakers is usually good but HW MMA and WMMA are very much bingo.

I usually fade HW MMA unless there is something real obvious in that particular matchup. And I tend to go for the dogs in WMMA because the lines are pretty obscure from time to time (+825 Holm/Rousey, +240 Nunes/Rousey +645 Rose/JJ +195 Nunes/Tate).

[JollyRogerMMA]

That's Max Holloway for sure. Dude has T-rex arms but you wouldn't know it with how much people talk about his "super long reach"

Max Holloway is a special fighter with high skill level. Reach over 2" and especially over 6" starts giving you over 60% win rate at random according to all fights at random. Not the end all be all but does give you another factor i deciding who to bet on if the fight is close and you think it will be on the feet.

[JollyRogerMMA]

Fundamentals beat Flash .......... Ask Muslim / Yair