1. #106
    turbozed
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    Quote Originally Posted by Shagdogy View Post
    Does anyone think Lauzon can win a decision here? His cardio after round 1 is seriously questionable and he hasn't won a legit decision since 2013.

    Does anyone think Guida can stop Lauzon? He had around 4 minutes of mount time vs. Koch and couldn't get the stoppage and hasn't won a fight inside the distance since 2011.

    This one seems obvious... which makes me nervous.
    I took the Lauzon scorecards = no action line around -200. I got burned by GSP finally finishing a fight last event but I think Guida has far less tools to finish a fight. I think this fight is too much of a toss-up to really get a good read on.

  2. #107
    turbozed
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    I like Ansaroff as a live dog here. She's more well rounded with decent striking and a good ground game. Also, showed good fight IQ in her last fight by finding out her opponent's weakness and going back to it.

    I've been following Hill and backed her in her last two fights but came away unimpressed in her last fight against Yoder. Yoder was able to put her to the mat and, if Yoder didn't keep on trying this one move where she intentionally stood up from top control to dive back in to try to take Hill's back (similar to what GSP did with Bisping but Bisping was actually rocked), Yoder could've just rode out the rest of the round and won the 1st two rounds. Hill seems to fight to the level of her competition, and doesn't seem to have the tools to overwhelm opponents. She's got great striking but not too much power. She's good enough at grappling not to be run over by grapplers, but not enough to be offensive with it.

    Ansaroff's top game is very good. She can improve position and land strikes in the process. Has a good understanding of balance and leverage. If she somehow gets on top of Hill, I don't think Hill is getting up until the end of the round or until Ansaroff submits her.

    Ansaroff is at a discount right now because of some bad breaks. In her fight against Lima, she came in with what looked like a knee injury and had to fly all the way to Brazil for her UFC debut. Ansaroff arguably won the fight with Kish. There's a good possibility that we haven't seen her fight close to her potential yet in the UFC. Din Thomas apparently thinks she's the most skilled women's strawweight fighter in the ATT stable, which is saying a lot since that includes Joanna. Plus, she's sparring partners with Nunes. In her last fight, she showed improved head movement and strike selection (e.g. when Lymbarger tried to clinch her like Lima did, Ansaroff caught her with a bunch of uppercuts). With 10 more months of training with Nunes and ATT, I can only imagine she's rounded out her game even more.

    Might be getting +165 odds for at worst a coinflip here. Will be on the lookout for SNA and +3.5 odds for Ansaroff as well.
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  3. #108
    Shagdogy
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    Agreed Hill's TDD is worrisome and Yoder's fight IQ prob lost her that fight. Poor decisions in scrambles.

    The only thing I don't like is Ansaroff does not have good speed so it's possible Hill will be able to stay away from her with superior movement. But with the amount of kicks likely thrown in this fight there should be opportunities for the takedown.

  4. #109
    Shagdogy
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    Quote Originally Posted by turbozed View Post
    I took the Lauzon scorecards = no action line around -200. I got burned by GSP finally finishing a fight last event but I think Guida has far less tools to finish a fight. I think this fight is too much of a toss-up to really get a good read on.
    I'm considering Lauzon rd 1 and Guida by dec. If I wanted to be real safe I could add a sprinkle of Lauzon rd 2 as well but I think his gas tank will be shot by then.

    I would be real surprised if Guida gets a finish. It's gambling, so obv anything can happen but in this fight I'm ok with my risk being on Lauzon having the gas to keep up with Guida, and Guida having the tools to put Lauzon away. Neither event seems likely at all to me.

  5. #110
    Shagdogy
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    I haven't been impressed with recent versions of Assuncao and I keep doubting him, but he pulls off these razor thin decisions. In Lopez he faces an opponent who will force more action than we are used to seeing from Assuncao lately. Can he Lopez take this fight from Assuncao? It's hard to imagine what the grappling and scrambles in this fight will produce.

  6. #111
    Demonata
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    Quote Originally Posted by JIBBBY View Post
    I'm in pain over here, if I walk on it at all now I feel sharp pains like knife in your toe.. Can't walk on this thing right now.. Reading up on it, I won't be able to wear a shoe for 10 days. Gotta stay off it for a week and until the sharp pains go away... 4-6 weeks to fully heal.. I'm ruined.. I'm about to get out of shape and I don't like it.. I may try to bike ride though...

    This is my exact break..



    Ok Paper back to the event, enough talk about missing hand and arms and my broken toe. We jacked this thread.

    BACK TO THE EVENT...
    It's just 1 toe lol. I dislocated 3 of my toes in the cage once and one also broke all from a stupid foot stomp. It probably won't even affect your job? I had to do security while wearing this big frankenstein boot looking thing. You're acting like matt hammil from ultimate fighter season 3 when he finally hot hit in the head and kept asking people to make him sandwiches and wouldn't leave his bed.

  7. #112
    JIBBBY
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    Quote Originally Posted by Demonata View Post
    It's just 1 toe lol. I dislocated 3 of my toes in the cage once and one also broke all from a stupid foot stomp. It probably won't even affect your job? I had to do security while wearing this big frankenstein boot looking thing. You're acting like matt hammil from ultimate fighter season 3 when he finally hot hit in the head and kept asking people to make him sandwiches and wouldn't leave his bed.
    I'm not crying over this thing.. Top of my foot is completely black and blue this morning.. It's sore, it hurts but so what... I threw some tape on it and walking around.. I don't give a shiiit about pain.. I'm as tough as they come... I just happen to break it right as I logged on to SBR and on this thread and decided to mention it.. Normally I wouldn't have mentioned it.. .. Relax Dem..

    I ain't ever wearing boots on my foot like a little biiiiitch either.. Boots are for pussies .. I'll be fine, no way I'm staying off it for a week.. I'm walking on it now.. It's only a frigg'n toe...
    Last edited by JIBBBY; 11-10-17 at 10:51 AM.

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  8. #113
    PaperTrail07
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    LOL OUCH....unlucky MAN Go Swim
    Quote Originally Posted by JIBBBY View Post
    I'm in pain over here, if I walk on it at all now I feel sharp pains like knife in your toe.. Can't walk on this thing right now.. Reading up on it, I won't be able to wear a shoe for 10 days. Gotta stay off it for a week and until the sharp pains go away... 4-6 weeks to fully heal.. I'm ruined.. I'm about to get out of shape and I don't like it.. I may try to bike ride though...

    This is my exact break..



    Ok Paper back to the event, enough talk about missing hand and arms and my broken toe. We jacked this thread.

    BACK TO THE EVENT...

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  9. #114
    UncleChael
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    I'll take Dustin Poirier... #tellemUncleChaelSentYah
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  10. #115
    Shagdogy
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    Not really finding a whole lot of playable lines on this card 😕

  11. #116
    UncleChael
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  12. #117
    Shagdogy
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    Quote Originally Posted by UncleChael View Post
    1. Northcutt looks like a giant next to Quinones.

    2. Albini looks like a man-sized toddler.

    3. Diego looks like he is getting no closer to sanity.
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  13. #118
    BIGDAY
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    Guys. This card is very bettable.

    Stay tuned.

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  14. #119
    TPowell
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    Quote Originally Posted by Shagdogy View Post
    1. Northcutt looks like a giant next to Quinones.

    2. Albini looks like a man-sized toddler.

    3. Diego looks like he is getting no closer to sanity.

    Meh that was what scared me. Too much size
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  15. #120
    Shagdogy
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    Quote Originally Posted by TPowell View Post
    Meh that was what scared me. Too much size
    Has he gotten taller? So young when he entered UFC he may have actually grown.

  16. #121
    firekillex
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    literally 0 clue how sage northcutt makes 155

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  17. #122
    JIBBBY
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    Quote Originally Posted by UncleChael View Post
    I'll take Dustin Poirier... #tellemUncleChaelSentYah
    Dustin might get kicked in the head or gut by Pettis.. I'm thinking Pettis myself and ITD... Dustin's chin is suspect, Pettis knows how to finish once he gets a fighter wobbled....

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  18. #123
    Hugo de Naranja
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    Quote Originally Posted by JIBBBY View Post
    Dustin might get kicked in the head or gut by Pettis.. I'm thinking Pettis myself and ITD... Dustin's chin is suspect, Pettis knows how to finish once he gets a fighter wobbled....

    I'll take Dustin if you want Pettis. 100 BPs straight up

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  19. #124
    JIBBBY
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    Quote Originally Posted by Hugo de Naranja View Post
    I'll take Dustin if you want Pettis. 100 BPs straight up
    I saw the UFC Tonight show and yes Dustin said he's been working hard on his wrestling.. Still a chance Dustin can get the KO or lay and pray on Pettis to a decision win.. We've seen Pettis end up on his back by strong wrestlers and loss decisions in the past..

    It's all about props and hedging for me Hugo.. I can't bet ya straight.. Dustin has a chance..

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  20. #125
    UncleChael
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    Quote Originally Posted by JIBBBY View Post
    I saw the UFC Tonight show and yes Dustin said he's been working hard on his wrestling.. Still a chance Dustin can get the KO or lay and pray on Pettis to a decision win.. We've seen Pettis end up on his back by strong wrestlers and loss decisions in the past..

    It's all about props and hedging for me Hugo.. I can't bet ya straight.. Dustin has a chance..
    lol. weakkk Jibbbers.
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  21. #126
    firekillex
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    ill take pettis for a hundo hugo

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  22. #127
    Shagdogy
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    I pretty much bet 2.5u that Guida doesn't finish Joe, or Joe doesn't win a decision.

    Lauzon hasn't won a legit decision since 2011 and if one thing hasn't left Guida it's his gas tank. Hope I'm seeing this right.

  23. #128
    Shagdogy
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    Also, upset alert... Lopez.

    Assuncao could easily be 0-3 in his last 3 fights and 2-4 in his past 6 had razor thin decisions not gone his way. Twice in Brazil he won decisions that almost all media outlets scored against him. He simply doesn't pull away in his fights against strong competition and that string of luck is likely to run out at some point. A wrestler with 87% takedown accuracy who never fights in reverse could be just the kind of person to get it done. And this fight is on US soil. At almost 3-1 he's absolutely worth a shot IMO.

  24. #129
    turbozed
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    Quote Originally Posted by Shagdogy View Post
    Not really finding a whole lot of playable lines on this card 
    Same here bud. Not going to force the action and maybe just live bet. There's an event every week until the end of the year so I think we'll be fine.

  25. #130
    turbozed
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    Quote Originally Posted by Shagdogy View Post
    I pretty much bet 2.5u that Guida doesn't finish Joe, or Joe doesn't win a decision.

    Lauzon hasn't won a legit decision since 2011 and if one thing hasn't left Guida it's his gas tank. Hope I'm seeing this right.
    I obviously agree since I put money on the Lauzon Scorecards No Action. But I didn't really go big on this fight because it seems like reliable trends with fighters get a bit more shaky as they are on the downslope of their careers. Diego Sanchez was once unfinishable so coming into that fight with Lauzon, it seemed almost impossible for Lauzon to finish with anything other than a SUB. Yet he goes out there and 1RD KOs him. Power sticks around but chins age apparently. Luckily Guida hasn't had much power at all, but I think the general principle is something to always keep in mind.

  26. #131
    THE_LOCKSMITH
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  27. #132
    THE_LOCKSMITH
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    I'm taking a shot with Arlovski, this young dude is built like a bowl of jello....


  28. #133
    turbozed
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    Okay so Arlovski is on a 5 fight losing skid. He's had to fight monsters though. Stipe, Overeem (who was in title contention 2 years ago), Barnett, and N'gannou. Tybura is pretty legit too and Arlovski took a round in that fight.

    Albini has been fighting guys 20 to 50 lbs smaller than him his whole career. He had a great win over Timothy Johnson (with beautiful step in knee then left hook combo to finish that fight btw), an actual HW, so understandably he's the favorite here.

    But damn, +285 is pretty tempting. It's a heavyweight fight already so anything can happen. But Arlovski does have avenues to victory here. Albini's striking is solid but it's only really good at punching range against a less mobile opponent. Johnson played this game and lost despite having a good formula early on. Albini doesn't strike well moving backwards and just puts his guard up and gets backed into the cage. We've seen Arlovski flurry and score doing just this. Albini is also a bit too willing to accept being clinched. Arlovski can do this if it becomes uncomfortable to stand with Albini. He did it well in the 2nd round against Tybura landing strikes on the break.

    Arlovski seems to have decent weapons at range too. He's picked up that Jon Jones low side kick to the knee and he's also added a spinning back kick as well. If he can stay outside of Albini's range and jump in for some naked kicks, Albini doesn't seem fast enough to counter, avoid, or check them.

    One of the biggest questions here is whether or not Arlovski has checked out of fighting. If he has, then maybe 3-1 is justified. We can't know for sure but the guy had a late career resurgence before this recent slide, so that shows some good mental fortitude. He also didn't quit against Tybura despite being in tough spots. Arlovski strikes me as the type of guy that wants to go out with a Win at least. This fight is winnable if he executes a good gameplan so hopefully he's really focused to get that W.

  29. #134
    UncleChael
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    Last edited by UncleChael; 11-11-17 at 01:04 AM.

  30. #135
    Hugo de Naranja
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    Quote Originally Posted by firekillex View Post
    ill take pettis for a hundo hugo
    It's on!

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  31. #136
    Shagdogy
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    Quote Originally Posted by UncleChael View Post
    A gust of wind and he does the chicken dance - McGregor on Poirier
    EVIL SAGE better show up tomorrow!
    Is Evil Sage the one who forces takedowns even though his technique is terrible? The one who gets into some of the sloppiest scrambles seen in the UFC? Please don't tell me you are too confident in this clown.

  32. #137
    Shagdogy
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    Quote Originally Posted by turbozed View Post
    I obviously agree since I put money on the Lauzon Scorecards No Action. But I didn't really go big on this fight because it seems like reliable trends with fighters get a bit more shaky as they are on the downslope of their careers. Diego Sanchez was once unfinishable so coming into that fight with Lauzon, it seemed almost impossible for Lauzon to finish with anything other than a SUB. Yet he goes out there and 1RD KOs him. Power sticks around but chins age apparently. Luckily Guida hasn't had much power at all, but I think the general principle is something to always keep in mind.
    Yeah, good call. 2.5u is a medium play for me. I'm really doubtful of Guida's ability to finish Lauzon, but never say never. I really feel like Joe either puts him away early, or gasses and Guida grinds him out to a decision. We'll see.

  33. #138
    Hugo de Naranja
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    I upped my Lauzon+Guida Draw bet to a full unit. Thinking the following could happen:

    Lauzon 10-8 R1
    Guida 10-9 R2
    Guida 10-9 R3

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  34. #139
    TPowell
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    Wonder what type of gas tank Suarez has? She has went 3 rounds twice before but they were very early in career and were only 11 and 6 minutes respectively. Suarez could struggle with someone nearly half a foot shorter like Viviane. Tough to get girls like that down and Viviane is short and thick.

    EDIT: Just watched her TUF fights and then the Viviane/Valerie L fight and at 5'0 she didn't get into the pocket NEAR enough against the much taller woman to give me confidence she can outstrike Tatiana. Tatiana's hands are non existent but she's so long that she uses those kicks like a jab and she will go to the body with it as well. For Viviane to win this fight striking, she HAS to get inside and swing aggressively and I'm not seeing that on film. If not, Tatiana will use her kicks to set up a forward charging takedown and with the size difference, I don't see how Viviane stops it. Wonder what the Suarez -3.5 will look like?
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  35. #140
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    Man, have really came off the dogs that I liked pre-tape (Pereira, Quinones, and now Arlovski). After watching the tape, I do think this Arlovski fight total is off. Albini isn't this elite finisher that his finish of Timmy Johnson says he is. In his stiffest 3 fights outside of the UFC, he went to a decision in 2 of them and finished by TKO in the 3rd of 5 rounds in the other. Albini isn't Stipe, Overeem, or Ngannou on the feet. He moves well and throws quickly with solid power but no doubt he'll be more measured against the much better striker than Johnson in this fight. At +350 that the fight goes the distance, I think the price is good. I think Arlovski wins the 1st round potentially and this fight surives the first big "scare" of a finish with both guys gassing (Arlovski the worst). You can get Albini +1000 in R3 if you want as well. Arlovski's cardio looked awful last time out and I can't see it getting any better
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