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Strong play on TJ for me. +155 is crazy. Cruz was hampered by leg injuries in that fight as evidenced by multiple sources and the wraps on his feet on fight night. NO WAY Garbrandt dances around a somewhat healthy Cruz like that. TJ was on par with Cruz years ago and I think he's head and shoulders better than Garbrandt now. Thinking that Masvidal may be a live dog here as well but he can go quiet in fights with activity and Thompson could certainly lead him into this again.
Actually after watching the Boetsch fight again I take back what I said. He looked badly out of shape, made no attempts to wrestle, landed little in the standup portion, got hit over and over by the same body kick/leg kick combination and got finished with strikes. Looks like he is shot after all.Originally Posted by JIBBBY
I took a 1u shot on Oliynik at (+305). He is super dangerous on the mat and may be the harder puncher on the fight. I think Blaydes will take him down but might get caught in a sub.
Thinking about this Bisping/GSP fight..
GSP has been out for so long, maybe his mind is not the same... Bisping ITD in a 5 round fight is a possibility... I don't think Bisping can grind out a decision win against GSP who is the superior wrestler anyways.. So if you are thinking Bisping is to win it's gotta be ITD...
1005 Bisping wins inside distance +275
Maybe even by KO ... Lol on the odds again..
1037 Bisping wins by TKO/KO +270
On the flip - We all remember GSP using his wrestling and dominating fighters with his top control and ground and pound mostly.. Bisping is durable and very hard to finish.... Bisping is getting up in age though so you don't know for sure if he can last 5 rounds if he's getting beat on??? Especially against a possible mentally tough and game ready GSP of old?
Then again with GSP - Did the sport pass him bye is something you do need to consider?.. GSP quit MMA for a reason also and is his mind ever gonna be right again?... Ring rust could play a factor as well..
With all that being said you need to choose with these props below IMO or play him straight...
1009 St-Pierre wins inside distance +385
or
1011 St-Pierre wins by 5 round decision +177
The straight -
UFC 217 - Middleweight 5 rounds - Madison Square Garden - New York, New York - PPV Sat 11/4 1001 Michael Bisping -110 o4½ -140 11:59PM 1002 Georges St-Pierre -110 u4½ +120
That's how I capped this fight so far... I don't think anything will change come fight time either..
Last edited by JIBBBY; 10-31-17 at 12:18 AM.
What about GSP -5.5 at (+175)? If he wins it's likely a wide Unanimous Decision and this also covers the possibility of a GSP finish.
One more note on the Hendricks fight. Borrachinha has never fought outside of Brazil. Not sure if that will affect anything but it's something to keep in mind.
Not a bad idea Hugo.. Nice thinking outside the box with the props!!!
I'm kinda leaning Bisping finishing GSP if the fight drags on though.. GSP may want out and retire again if he gets into a fire fight and a long drawn out war.... He's been out a very long time now... Fighting is mental and what have you done for me lately.. Ring rust is real too...
Bisping while I think he's a bit over rated these days is battle tested and has been a very active fighter.. He's got some pop to his punches and GSP doesn't have a granite jaw either as he has been rocked and dropped in the past..
Matt Serra lit up GSP..
We all remember this...
Last edited by JIBBBY; 10-31-17 at 01:05 AM.
They are some Arb opportunities available right now. NOT Jedrzejczyk Decision is (+173) while Fight Goes Distance is (-135).
Rockhold did get his revenge though with Bisping... Even the ancient Anderson Silva had Bisping badly hurt several times in their recent fight..
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Last edited by JIBBBY; 10-31-17 at 01:12 AM.
These small chicks usually go the distance... -135 is a good price.. I may play that..
I'm probably going Joanna by UN decision also if the odds are workable.. May still hedge with the Rose sub prop though..
Joanna
Jedrzejczyk
vs
Rose
Namajunas
"Thug"
POLAND
Country
UNITED STATES
14-0-0
Record
7-3-0
29%
KO/TKO
0%
7%
SUB
86%
64%
DEC
14%
66 in
Height
65 in
115 lbs
Weight
115 lbs
65 in
Reach
65 in
35 in
Leg Reach
39 in
Significant Strikes
6.87
Landed per minute
3.51
50.6%
Accuracy
45.16%
2.43
Absorbed P/M
3.1
68.01%
Defense
58.6%
Last edited by JIBBBY; 10-31-17 at 01:21 AM.
Yeah JJ UD hedged by Namajunas Sub seems sharp to me.These small chicks usually go the distance... -135 is a good price.. I may play that..
I'm probably going Joanna by UN decision also if the odds are workable.. May still hedge with the Rose sub prop though..
Jedrzejczyk
vs
Namajunas
"Thug"
POLAND
Country
UNITED STATES
14-0-0
Record
7-3-0
29%
KO/TKO
0%
7%
SUB
86%
64%
DEC
14%
66 in
Height
65 in
115 lbs
Weight
115 lbs
65 in
Reach
65 in
35 in
Leg Reach
39 in
Significant Strikes
6.87
Landed per minute
3.51
50.6%
Accuracy
45.16%
2.43
Absorbed P/M
3.1
68.01%
Defense
58.6%
a prime GSP kills bisping , but 4 years off and some rumblings around in his camp saying he isnt looking his best... Bisping is the play imo... happy i got him at +135 and think he has a solid chance at winning this scrap
JJ vs rose is a super tough fight but i think rose being so aggressive can open up a finish finally for JJ
and cody vs TJ throw a fckin coin in the air and pick , this shits gonna be a fight in the matrix ... dont look away for a second or you might miss something
last note johnny hendricks fckin sucks , auto bet against him at all times
And Borrachinha throws that leg to the body very hard. The only question is Hendricks's chin. That's it. If he displays some other world toughness then he could possibly gas out Borrachinha just cause we've never seen him go deep.
Blaydes looked awful his last fight out.
My book doesn't have the line yet, so I'm hoping it stays where it is or get better for me but this opener for Ramos is a STEAL in my opinion. He's a much better fighter than Zahabi. Zahabi's level of competition prior to UFC was terrible, and he was about 20 good seconds of offense away from losing his UFC debut. He lost the first 4:40 of the 2nd round to Vieira before dropping him near the bell. Ramos is the much younger guy and also the more seasoned guy.
I thought I remembered being real impressed with Zahabi but after going back and capping this fight I think it was all just name recognition. Ramos should easily be -200-230 IMO.
Now, that said, if you like Zahabi go pound that opener PLEASE. I'll take the value on Ramos.
I made zahabi -150 based off hype and the line he had in his debut. I agree that I think Ramos may be the better fighter though.
That blaydes line is crazy. His striking is terrible and he has to be super careful on the mat or he'll be subbed. I like the dog for sure as a big blaydes fan
Olenik up to +325. I think he could win a decision possibly. Blaydes may decide to stand given the sub danger.
I really need to make money this card. I want to make almost 1k. Any ideas guys? I would appreciate it a lot.Any parlays or locks?
yeah puzzling considering he was able to take down Ngannou a couple times. I WILL say that he has great chin. That fight was stopped due to the doctor. Danny O is a decent fighter though. Great cardio to go with solid takedown/sub defense but his striking is average at best IMO. He wins fights by outlasting other HW's and even in Round 1, Blaydes wasn't very good.
I'm passing on the main I think. I thought Bisping BIG at first but his TDD is overrated for sure. Hasn't defended anything against an elite wrestler and average guys like Leites have taken him down at a 25% clip basically. Tim Kennedy visual is in the back of my head but no way I play GSP even money against the much bigger man off a huge layoff.
More on the HW fight: I'm starting to think Olenik R1 is the only way to play this. He tends to fade bad in fights and Blaydes can be very physical. I'm thinking maybe Blaydes R3/decision and Olenik R1 or by sub. No way Olenik TKO's this guy and I can't see him winning a decision against a guy with a decent gas tank like Blaydes. Blaydes could finish him early I suppose but I suspect he'll be extra careful in the beginning. FGTD is at +175 which seems pretty solid for what should be either a crappy HW striking affair with 2 really tough guys OR a wrestler vs grappler matchup in which you only have to worry about the sub.
How much money do you have? Cutelaba isn't losing.
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^ Of course, no holding me responsible for what you do if you lay the 4.5k to win 1k and he loses by some freak DQ or snapped limb.
Anderson by DEC at +220 is tempting. I know his chin is poor but OSP's volume isn't great so he could potentially put him on his back for a while and then he just has to avoid the sub which I think is very likely. OSP tends to be a top heavy sub guy
mma never bet anybody over -300
this is the sport of upsets
Im thinking Cody will be too emotional and cocky and keep trying to land that knockout blow while TJ fights more elusive and technical.. and isnt TJs wrestling better too?
I see TJ as the better wrestler and Cody as the better striker. TJ is better at wresting in a 3 round fight. This is a 5 round fight. The reason for that is to save cardio in a 5 round fight.
That's exactly how I thought the Garbrandt/Cruz fight would go. TJ's offensive wrestling is better but I don't see that being a huge factor here. I think Garbrandt catches Dillashaw repeatedly with Hook Counters in the pocket and Knocks Him Down and perhaps even Out here.
Cody is just flat out rolling right now and the way that he avoided Cruz and completely dictated where that fight would happen was impressive.
Fun Fact of the Day: What do Dan Kelly and GSP have in common?
Answer: Neither has ever lost a fight that made it to Round 2.
Cody the better striker gonna light him up all day. TJ Dillashaw come try me motherf***er.
What do you think about the Garbrandt KO prop?
I hope he beats tj "the dildo" dillashaw
TJ is experienced and fought the best (UFC CHAMPION), he may lean on his wrestling in this scrap and avoid the slug fest with Cody..
TJ may win this by decision with his at distance point kick/boxing and wrestling..
I think you are either looking at TJ by decision or Cody by KO..
1107 Dillishaw wins by 5 round decision +331
1141 Garbrandt wins by TKO/KO +235
Outside chances are -
I'm kinda liking the fight won't go the distance at even odds..
1104 Fight won’t go 5 round distance +100
and maybe
1135 Dillishaw wins by submission +795
Last edited by JIBBBY; 11-01-17 at 12:59 AM.
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