1. #36
    MMANick
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    Quote Originally Posted by Hugo de Naranja View Post
    I don't think that Held is a lock at all. He is winless in the UFC against low-level fighters. Maybe take him by Sub for better value?

    KK probably wins a solid decision here but I wouldn't bet her ML. Parlaying the O2.5 seems better than taking a side.

    I'm on Clark here pretty solid. Would you mind explaining the Blachowicz pick? Imo he has very weak TDD and will get taken down and controlled in this spot.

    Till/Cerrone fight should be fire.
    I think Blach will make it tough on him to get TD''s. He's a big strong guy, and his TDD is OK, not great but I don't think it's as weak as you(it'll be the determining factor here either way). Blach has only lost to Top 10-15 type fighters as well. I think he'll find Clark's chin and put him out or get a stoppage, Nicholson did it @ 185 when Clark slowed and I think Blach hits a lot harder.

    Good luck on the bet, dude. I'm still watching the odds.
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  2. #37
    Hugo de Naranja
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    Quote Originally Posted by MMANick View Post
    I think Blach will make it tough on him to get TD''s. He's a big strong guy, and his TDD is OK, not great but I don't think it's as weak as you(it'll be the determining factor here either way). Blach has only lost to Top 10-15 type fighters as well. I think he'll find Clark's chin and put him out or get a stoppage, Nicholson did it @ 185 when Clark slowed and I think Blach hits a lot harder.

    Good luck on the bet, dude. I'm still watching the odds.
    I definitely agree with that. Blach by R1 stoppage seems like his best path to victory for sure. He tends to gas real hard after R1 but he's dangerous early and could put Clark out or catch him in a sub.

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  3. #38
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    Quote Originally Posted by Hugo de Naranja View Post
    Yeah I thought he retired after that KO loss. Guess not. He's filling in for someone else on short notice.
    It's a big reason I'm going against him here. He just hung them up, seems like he's one foot in here. Spitz is a mid to high tier regional fighter at best and he KO'd him. He's going up against another guy who is of the same ilk as Spitz, but probably is a better striker.
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  4. #39
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    Quote Originally Posted by Hugo de Naranja View Post
    I definitely agree with that. Blach by R1 stoppage seems like his best path to victory for sure. He tends to gas real hard after R1 but he's dangerous early and could put Clark out or catch him in a sub.
    He punched himself out against Cummins last time out. I thought they were going to stop it a few times. But, you're right, he seems to have nothing left come the 3rd round.
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  5. #40
    PaperTrail07
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    And Clarks takedowns aren't exactly the best of all time either...Clark will gas
    Quote Originally Posted by MMANick View Post
    I think Blach will make it tough on him to get TD''s. He's a big strong guy, and his TDD is OK, not great but I don't think it's as weak as you(it'll be the determining factor here either way). Blach has only lost to Top 10-15 type fighters as well. I think he'll find Clark's chin and put him out or get a stoppage, Nicholson did it @ 185 when Clark slowed and I think Blach hits a lot harder.

    Good luck on the bet, dude. I'm still watching the odds.

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  6. #41
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    and Clark Does? He looked damn near drunk in there in the 3rd vs Nicholson lol....
    Quote Originally Posted by MMANick View Post
    He punched himself out against Cummins last time out. I thought they were going to stop it a few times. But, you're right, he seems to have nothing left come the 3rd round.

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  7. #42
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    Quote Originally Posted by turbozed View Post
    I agree with you on Alvey. Here's what I wrote up somewhere else in response to someone who was betting Emeev just to fade Alvey:



    The above is before I watched any tape on Emeev. BTW, M-1 production value is great. I dig the ring with the ropes + cage at the bottom so they don't fall out. I also like the 90's style techno music that Emeev walks out to. All very entertaining. Anyway, if Emeev comes out like he did in the first Vasilevsky fight, he gets destroyed. Not sure what happened but he looks like a completely different fighter since then. Still he didn't show anything that would give Alvey problems. Probably not as strong as Alvey and doesn't have the powerful TD style to take Alvey down, who has as good of TD defense as anybody out there (against UFC caliber wrestling). Emeev doesn't seem like a good outfighter, he actually only does work in boxing range or in clinch range. He's added some nice clinch knees to his game, but I'm not sure if this will work on Alvey since Alvey frames well and is a good clinch fighter himself. And he's not a better boxer than Alvey, who throws more compact shorter punches that will land before any of the looping long punches of Emeev will. Alvey will have a 6" reach advantage.

    The concerns are: 2 weeks notice for Alvey, and the fact that Emeev is tough as balls and will throw more volume. Alvey has been bum-rushed before by Brunson, so there's always that too. Also, Emeev did something in the fight against Luigi Fioravanti that, if done right, could cause Alvey problems. In the second round, Emeev changed levels while striking and was able to hit a takedown seamlessly from the striking (as opposed to his telegraphed shots in a lot of his fights). This is a path to victory since high volume + takedown looks good in the eyes of judges even if the guy is getting outstruck from a technical standpoint. I don't see enough of this though to think Emeev takes this.
    I like it Turbo. I'm seeing the same. I only have two concerns: one is a lackluster Alvey due to his notorious lack of urgency, combined with late notice fight and possible jet lag. Second is if Emeev comes in full of roids and all of a sudden has unstoppable takedowns. He certainly doesn't look like he can take Alvey down with the quality of takedown attempts I've seen from him, but a Russian fighter in Europe is always iffy.

  8. #43
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    Quote Originally Posted by Hugo de Naranja View Post
    This seems like a reasonable read on the fight. Not sure that Alvey's reach will be a big factor since he's mostly a short-range counter puncher rather than a long out-fighter who consistently pumps a jab. His TDD is great though.
    The TDD is key to me because it's hard to imagine Emeev winning a stand up battle. If Emeev wins on the feet I feel like he's going to have to lean on Alvey against the fence for 3 rounds. If they actually strike at range, Alvey should be much more accurate and I think his reach will help a little bit.

  9. #44
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    Quote Originally Posted by PaperTrail07 View Post
    and Clark Does? He looked damn near drunk in there in the 3rd vs Nicholson lol....
    Didn't Nicholson get a KO in the last second of R1 in his fight with Clark?

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  10. #45
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    Quote Originally Posted by Hugo de Naranja View Post
    Didn't Nicholson get a KO in the last second of R1 in his fight with Clark?
    That's what I thought, but I'm going strictly based off of memory.
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  11. #46
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    Quote Originally Posted by Hugo de Naranja View Post
    Didn't Nicholson get a KO in the last second of R1 in his fight with Clark?
    Yes. Donno what he's talking about. That fight was also at Middleweight and his UFC debut. He has since won twice since going back to light heavy. I would be careful to let Clark's gas tank be a reason to bet against him. At 27 and training full time at Jackson-Wink now I believe, he has shown improving gas in his last couple fights. Against Collier, Clark had plenty of gas in round 3 and had good speed and power in his wrestling. That fight was a pretty grueling one with a lot of back and forth clinch work and grappling, but Clark had a clear cardio and strength advantage in round three. I would expect his gas tank improves if anything, but I doubt it gets worse.

    That said, his skills don't seem to be top tier, at least not yet. Particularly at range on the feet he's a bit awkward and keeps his head too high, and Blach should have an advantage here when they're both fresh. If Clark has cardio equal to or better than his last fight, and is able to safely close the distance on Blach, he should be able to take this IMO.
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  12. #47
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    Quote Originally Posted by Hugo de Naranja View Post
    I definitely agree with that. Blach by R1 stoppage seems like his best path to victory for sure. He tends to gas real hard after R1 but he's dangerous early and could put Clark out or catch him in a sub.
    Agree with you here that Blachowicz will be very dangerous in the 1st round. Even though Clark has the wrestling advantage, his entries aren't all that great. Cruz mentioned in his last fight that Blachowicz had been training TD defense with Phil Davis so obviously he's aware of the holes he needs to fill. People will say that he looked just as bad at TDD as his other fights but I disagree. In Rd 2 of the fight with Cummins, he showed something different and was able to get his hips pivoted away from the TDA. Cummins still got him down but it took a second effort and drive to do it.

    I'm on Rd1 at +650 so implied odds are 13.3% he gets it done especially with the intangibles (Blachowicz in front of his hometown crowd, Clark travelling for the first time all the way to Poland). Think that's a good price.

  13. #48
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    Quote Originally Posted by Shagdogy View Post
    Yes. Donno what he's talking about. That fight was also at Middleweight and his UFC debut. He has since won twice since going back to light heavy. I would be careful to let Clark's gas tank be a reason to bet against him. At 27 and training full time at Jackson-Wink now I believe, he has shown improving gas in his last couple fights. Against Collier, Clark had plenty of gas in round 3 and had good speed and power in his wrestling. That fight was a pretty grueling one with a lot of back and forth clinch work and grappling, but Clark had a clear cardio and strength advantage in round three. I would expect his gas tank improves if anything, but I doubt it gets worse.

    That said, his skills don't seem to be top tier, at least not yet. Particularly at range on the feet he's a bit awkward and keeps his head too high, and Blach should have an advantage here when they're both fresh. If Clark has cardio equal to or better than his last fight, and is able to safely close the distance on Blach, he should be able to take this IMO.
    Agree with you too. I can't find anything wrong with the criticism Blach gets for having a poor gas tank. He's good for a round and a half tops. Clark's takedowns % isn't the greatest but Blach's willingness to stay on the floor in rounds 2 and 3 means he only needs to hit one. Clark's top control isn't so strong, and Blach is strong enough when fresh, where I think Blach can force a standup or two early in the fight though.

  14. #49
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    Quote Originally Posted by Shagdogy View Post
    I like it Turbo. I'm seeing the same. I only have two concerns: one is a lackluster Alvey due to his notorious lack of urgency, combined with late notice fight and possible jet lag. Second is if Emeev comes in full of roids and all of a sudden has unstoppable takedowns. He certainly doesn't look like he can take Alvey down with the quality of takedown attempts I've seen from him, but a Russian fighter in Europe is always iffy.
    I hear ya. I've been asking around to see what the drug testing is like for these overseas cards. After watching Icarus on Netflix, I just assume all Russian fighters are juiced to the .

    Another reason I haven't put a bet on Alvey yet is that Alvey has stated repeatedly in interviews that this is going to be his worst weight cut ever. He was 220 lbs when he got the call. He even stated that his coaches were split on whether he could make the weight or not.

    Weird that he would harp on that point so much so there's a part of me that thinks that Plan B is to just to cut down to whatever he can and forfeit the purse. I'm going to wait and see what he looks like on the scale. If he's like 5+ lbs over, then I'll conclude that he's not too drained. If he missed by a pound or two and/or looks like death on the scales, then I'd stay away. If the price is right, I might consider Alvey KO or ITD prop. People don't engage Alvey because, despite his lack of variety, he throws accurate and hard punches. Emeev is just the type of tough guy who will try to walk through punches. He will bring it to Alvey and force the action.

  15. #50
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    Quote Originally Posted by Shagdogy View Post
    Yes. Donno what he's talking about. That fight was also at Middleweight and his UFC debut. He has since won twice since going back to light heavy. I would be careful to let Clark's gas tank be a reason to bet against him. At 27 and training full time at Jackson-Wink now I believe, he has shown improving gas in his last couple fights. Against Collier, Clark had plenty of gas in round 3 and had good speed and power in his wrestling. That fight was a pretty grueling one with a lot of back and forth clinch work and grappling, but Clark had a clear cardio and strength advantage in round three. I would expect his gas tank improves if anything, but I doubt it gets worse.

    That said, his skills don't seem to be top tier, at least not yet. Particularly at range on the feet he's a bit awkward and keeps his head too high, and Blach should have an advantage here when they're both fresh. If Clark has cardio equal to or better than his last fight, and is able to safely close the distance on Blach, he should be able to take this IMO.
    This is spot on imo

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  16. #51
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    Quote Originally Posted by turbozed View Post
    Agree with you here that Blachowicz will be very dangerous in the 1st round. Even though Clark has the wrestling advantage, his entries aren't all that great. Cruz mentioned in his last fight that Blachowicz had been training TD defense with Phil Davis so obviously he's aware of the holes he needs to fill. People will say that he looked just as bad at TDD as his other fights but I disagree. In Rd 2 of the fight with Cummins, he showed something different and was able to get his hips pivoted away from the TDA. Cummins still got him down but it took a second effort and drive to do it.

    I'm on Rd1 at +650 so implied odds are 13.3% he gets it done especially with the intangibles (Blachowicz in front of his hometown crowd, Clark travelling for the first time all the way to Poland). Think that's a good price.
    Definitely a solid prop play either as a hedge or a bet

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  17. #52
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    Just watched tape for Bellator and have two very mild leans. Hard to lay much down on these fights since there isn't much tape out there for any of these fighters. I doubt any of you are interested in capping these but, if you are, let me know what your thoughts are:

    Blaine/Julaton

    - Blaine has been training grappling and striking for 4 years, will be fighting at home, and has KO power in her right hook (possibly only against grandmothers)
    - Julaton has been fighting lackluster opponents as well and despite her 34-1 boxing record, does not seem to use it that effectively in MMA. Most of her fights go to decision. She also only has some grappling experience. Seems to have athletic ability but poor MMA IQ. Hasn't fought in 2 years whereas Blaine has been rattling off wins in amateurs during that time.Was hoping for Blaine at +200 odds or better against a boxing champ but that's not happening. I don't see either girl submitting each other. Julaton has no finishing ability on the feet. And Blaine *shouldn't* be able to KO a boxing champ. So I kinda like that over 2.5 rounds.

    Quinn/Surin

    Surin's 4 opponents have a combined record of 4-6. There's a good chance he's not really ready for this step up in competition. Because of cancellations this fight got bumped to the main card and Surin is from CT where the event is. Surin is a strong wrestler starting off in amateurs in 2013 and has had four pro fights against bottom of the barrel competition in the past 2 years.
    Ryan Quinn is a 9 year vet that coaches at ATT, and has a Bellator record of 7-1 losing only to Saad Awad during this time. He's fought mostly at welterweight but fought Awad at 155 last time. There's nothing special about the guy, doesn't seem particularly strong, is competent in grappling. Problem is that he performs well in Bellator but keeps losing in regional fights in between Bellator appearances.Despite Quinn being a Bellator journeyman at best, he's still a few levels above Surin in terms of competiion. Surin is a strong wrestler and may control Quinn for moments in this fight, but doesn't seem like he'll be able to avoid a submission in the span of 15 minutes. There's a video of him getting submitted by a triangle in a grappling match within like 30 seconds. Oh, and Quinn is from CT too, so this won't even be a hometown advantage type of deal for Surin.
    This is one of those situations where there's a good likelihood that Quinn just subs Surin quickly. If Surin is legit, the worst it'll be is a close back and forth grappling match which justifies the coinflip odds. Quinn seems like a decent play here.

  18. #53
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    Quote Originally Posted by Hugo de Naranja View Post
    I don't think that Held is a lock at all. He is winless in the UFC against low-level fighters. Maybe take him by Sub for better value?
    Not sure about this Hugo. He beat Lauzon even if the record doesn't show it (and I won a bet on Lauzon in that fight, but he didn't win) and he was easily sweeping Hadzovic until he ate that knee with a really stupid and unnecessary takedown attempt. I think his record doesn't reflect his skills. When he first came to UFC I wasn't too impressed with his takedown ability but he seems to be getting much stronger there. I haven't even watched his opponent yet, but just saying, his record is a bit misleading IMO.

  19. #54
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    Quote Originally Posted by Shagdogy View Post
    Not sure about this Hugo. He beat Lauzon even if the record doesn't show it (and I won a bet on Lauzon in that fight, but he didn't win) and he was easily sweeping Hadzovic until he ate that knee with a really stupid and unnecessary takedown attempt. I think his record doesn't reflect his skills. When he first came to UFC I wasn't too impressed with his takedown ability but he seems to be getting much stronger there. I haven't even watched his opponent yet, but just saying, his record is a bit misleading IMO.
    This is gonna be a blowout! Also, even Joe Lo said he lost, I also won money on that fight haha
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  20. #55
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    LOL was vs stansbury my fault I was just going off memory as well....LOL.... his first fight was also in his hometown w all his coaches and a perfect camp...
    Quote Originally Posted by Shagdogy View Post
    Yes. Donno what he's talking about. That fight was also at Middleweight and his UFC debut. He has since won twice since going back to light heavy. I would be careful to let Clark's gas tank be a reason to bet against him. At 27 and training full time at Jackson-Wink now I believe, he has shown improving gas in his last couple fights. Against Collier, Clark had plenty of gas in round 3 and had good speed and power in his wrestling. That fight was a pretty grueling one with a lot of back and forth clinch work and grappling, but Clark had a clear cardio and strength advantage in round three. I would expect his gas tank improves if anything, but I doubt it gets worse.

    That said, his skills don't seem to be top tier, at least not yet. Particularly at range on the feet he's a bit awkward and keeps his head too high, and Blach should have an advantage here when they're both fresh. If Clark has cardio equal to or better than his last fight, and is able to safely close the distance on Blach, he should be able to take this IMO.

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  21. #56
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    had to respect Joe for admitting the loss on the spot...
    Quote Originally Posted by MMANick View Post
    This is gonna be a blowout! Also, even Joe Lo said he lost, I also won money on that fight haha

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  22. #57
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    Decided to play Piechota. Maybe you guys can check my assumptions here (Hugo, Shagy?)

    Think Piechoa is a technically more sound striker. Just has to avoid Wilson's left hand since Wilson's attack is pretty unbalanced. But the main advantage is that Piechota's ground game is super slick. Made Craig White look like Craig White belt. We haven't seen much of Wilson on the ground except that he was repeatedly swept and then mounted by Frank Waisten Jr.

    Also, just take a look at Wilson's record. All straight jobbers until he got to the UFC. I don't think Wilson would've been signed by the UFC if he wasn't a 205er since that division is so slim. Now he's dropped down to MW which to me feels like some sort of backdoor Roth IRA conversion loophole but for MMA.

    Wilson does have big power with that left though, and there's a chance he lands something in the 1st round. But given how much he slows down, I don't see any way he wins if it gets to the 2nd or 3rd. I have a small hedge on Wilson round 1 at +575.
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  23. #58
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    Seems like an intelligent way to play it Turbo. Wilson’s only win in the UFC was the super chinny Chris Dempsey. Wilson has some power and should have an advantage on the feet early but his gas tank and ground game are very suspect. I like Piechota here as well.
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  24. #59
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    Quote Originally Posted by Hugo de Naranja View Post
    Seems like an intelligent way to play it Turbo. Wilson’s only win in the UFC was the super chinny Chris Dempsey. Wilson has some power and should have an advantage on the feet early but his gas tank and ground game are very suspect. I like Piechota here as well.
    I think this is one of the best plays on the card.
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  25. #60
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    Till wont finish a guy who went 3 with RL last fight AND couldn't get Bojan out before the bell.....Cowboy for me

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  26. #61
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    Quote Originally Posted by turbozed View Post
    Decided to play Piechota. Maybe you guys can check my assumptions here (Hugo, Shagy?)

    Think Piechoa is a technically more sound striker. Just has to avoid Wilson's left hand since Wilson's attack is pretty unbalanced. But the main advantage is that Piechota's ground game is super slick. Made Craig White look like Craig White belt. We haven't seen much of Wilson on the ground except that he was repeatedly swept and then mounted by Frank Waisten Jr.

    Also, just take a look at Wilson's record. All straight jobbers until he got to the UFC. I don't think Wilson would've been signed by the UFC if he wasn't a 205er since that division is so slim. Now he's dropped down to MW which to me feels like some sort of backdoor Roth IRA conversion loophole but for MMA.

    Wilson does have big power with that left though, and there's a chance he lands something in the 1st round. But given how much he slows down, I don't see any way he wins if it gets to the 2nd or 3rd. I have a small hedge on Wilson round 1 at +575.
    Gotta do some homework on this one but I'll get back to ya. I like what I'm reading her so far.

  27. #62
    Hugo de Naranja
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    Quote Originally Posted by Shagdogy View Post
    Not sure about this Hugo. He beat Lauzon even if the record doesn't show it (and I won a bet on Lauzon in that fight, but he didn't win) and he was easily sweeping Hadzovic until he ate that knee with a really stupid and unnecessary takedown attempt. I think his record doesn't reflect his skills. When he first came to UFC I wasn't too impressed with his takedown ability but he seems to be getting much stronger there. I haven't even watched his opponent yet, but just saying, his record is a bit misleading IMO.
    I just think Held's skills are vastly overrated and that he has big flaws. His opponent isn't super impressive so I think he's a deserving favorite and I will likely pick him to win but definitely think there is no value on his current (-400) ML.

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  28. #63
    turbozed
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    Quote Originally Posted by Hugo de Naranja View Post
    I just think Held's skills are vastly overrated and that he has big flaws. His opponent isn't super impressive so I think he's a deserving favorite and I will likely pick him to win but definitely think there is no value on his current (-400) ML.
    The guys on the Vivisection might've hit upon a good reason for that. In the European regionals Held was able to submit guys by fighting loose and going for Iminari rolls and leg locks all the time. That works in the lower echelons but when he got to UFC level he had to switch his game up considerably. We kinda saw that evolution from fight to fight. I

    n the Sanchez fight he was outworked. He came back with a style more suitable to beating guys in the UFC and he arguably beat Lauzon which surprised the hell out of me, especially since I had money on Lauzon on that fight. I remember thinking how fast Held was able to adjust and being somewhat impressed. I think we both had money on Hadzovic that last fight and I wasn't feeling at all like I had any business winning that bet. To me that was his most dominant performance and that knee was as lucky as it gets. Everyone has a chance of getting blasted on a TD entry. The main thing is whether they made it easy for their opponent to do it. Held had not tried that takedown before in the fight. I don't think he even tried for a single takedown for over a round before that (since he was comfortably winning based on striking alone) so there's no reason to think Hadzovic was looking to time it. If it worked and he finished via leglock or whatever we'd be praising Held for not coasting and finishing his opponent.

    I was thinking that Held was going to be undervalued in his next fight if the UFC decided to keep him and was looking to bet him. At this price, it's not something I'll jump on, but I think it's about right.

  29. #64
    Hugo de Naranja
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    I think a Clark Live-Bet may be in play here

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  30. #65
    Hugo de Naranja
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    If anyone wants to take Held for some "Free Money" betpoints I'm down to take the other side, splitting the middle of market odds.

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  31. #66
    turbozed
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    Here's video of Alvey weighing in



    He was making a huge deal about how tough the weight cut was going to be, and I interpreted this to mean that he kinda deep down knew he wasn't going to make it. Ends up being 4 lbs over, which is probably as much as he could cut without it being too dangerous. Doesn't look too bad.

  32. #67
    Shagdogy
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    Quote Originally Posted by turbozed View Post
    Here's video of Alvey weighing in



    He was making a huge deal about how tough the weight cut was going to be, and I interpreted this to mean that he kinda deep down knew he wasn't going to make it. Ends up being 4 lbs over, which is probably as much as he could cut without it being too dangerous. Doesn't look too bad.
    Like you said, much better for him to come in 4lbs over than miss weight by 1 pound and look like a zombie. This makes me less afraid to bet him.

  33. #68
    JIBBBY
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    Quote Originally Posted by JIBBBY View Post
    Part 1 - MMA mania




    185 lbs.: Sam Alvey vs. Ramazan Emeev

    Sam Alvey (31-9) has had plenty to smile about recently, winning five of six in the span of 13 months. After a tough loss to Thales Leites in April, he notched perhaps the biggest win of his career with a split decision over Rashad Evans two months ago.

    He replaces Trevor Smith on less than two weeks notice.
    The Azerbaijan-born Ramazan Emeev (15-3) has long reigned as one of Russia’s top Heavyweight fighters, twice winning the M-1 Middleweight title and going 12-1 in his last 13 fights. His current four-fight win streak includes a submission of standout Vyacheslav Vasilevsky and, most recently, a decision over Anatoly Tokov that snapped the latter’s 17-fight win streak.
    He has submitted seven professional opponents and knocked out another three.
    Emeev — though not overwhelming in any particular area — certainly has the skills to excel in UFC. Solid boxing and top control have thus far carried him to success in Russia and ought to do the same against top Middleweight fighters.
    That said, Alvey’s a significantly tougher match up than the game-but-fragile Smith. Emeev has proven easy to hit while closing the distance and isn’t a particularly overwhelming physical specimen at 185 pounds. Alvey may have a near-unmatched ability to shoot himself in the foot through his own lack of urgency, but Emeev’s style will give him way too many counter opportunities for me to pick against him.
    Prediction: Alvey via second-round technical knockout

    145 lbs.:
    Artem Lobov vs. Andre Fili

    Following a loss in The Ultimate Fighter (TUF) 22 house and consecutive defeats against Ryan Hall and Alex White in UFC itself, Artem Lobov (14-13-1) proved he was more than just a punchline by beating Chris Avila and Teruto Ishihara. These wins netted him a main event slot opposite Cub Swanson, who outstruck him over the course of five round in a “Fight of the Night”-winning bout.
    He will give up a staggering nine inches of reach to Andre Fili (16-5).
    “Touchy” — who entered UFC with some fanfare thanks to his Team Alpha Male association and debut knockout of Jeremy Larson — has yet to find consistency in UFC, alternating wins and losses. His last bout saw him face late replacement Calvin Kattar and, despite being a -350 favorite, lost a fairly one-sided decision at UFC 214.
    Half of his professional wins have come by form of knockout.
    By all accounts, Fili should smack the bejeesus out of Lobov. The reach advantage is absurd and Fili has the style to take advantage of it ... not to mention the meta fact that his win/loss alternation has him scheduled for a victory. Fili’s got a much more rounded striking game and superior wrestling on top of all that.
    Lobov could undoubtedly surprise us again, but Fili’s holding all the cards. Heavy kicks and long-range punches steadily wear down Lobov for the finish.
    Prediction: Fili via second-round technical knockout

    135 lbs.:
    Lina Lansberg vs. Aspen Ladd

    Lina Lansberg (7-2) was rather thoroughly deposed in her UFC debut when Cristiane “Cyborg” battered her into submission midway through the second round. “The Elbow Princess” bounced back with a decision over former foe Lucie Pudilova in March, but had to withdraw from a planned fight with Leslie Smith in Glasgow.
    She has stopped four MMA opponents with strikes, two of them in the first round.
    Aspen Ladd (5-0) followed her 8-1 amateur career by racking up five wins in Invicta, including a submission of TUF 23 finalist Amanda Cooper and a decision over current TUF 26 competitor Sijara Eubanks. This paved the way for a debut fight with Jessica Eye, only for Ladd to suffer illness on the day of the fight and withdraw.
    She is 13 years younger than Lansberg (almost to the day).
    The name of the game here is pace. Lansberg enjoys keeping opponents against the cage and going to work with knees and elbows, while Ladd throws a huge volume of punches while constantly pressing forward. I’m leaning toward Ladd’s activity. She’s hittable, wears damage and can be controlled in the clinch, but that frenetic offense looks like a recipe for success considering Lansberg’s struggles with Pudilova in the third round. Ladd outworks her for either a clear decision win or late ground-and-pound stoppage.
    Prediction: Ladd via unanimous decision

    145 lbs.:
    Felipe Arantes vs. Josh Emmett

    Felipe Arantes (18-8-1) opened his Bantamweight campaign with consecutive armbar finishes of Yves Jabouin and Jerrod Sanders, earning “Performance of the Night” for the former before losing a close split decision against Erik Perez. “Sertanejo” — who missed weight badly against Perez — went on to withdraw from a fight against Luke Sanders just two days before the event.
    He has knocked out seven professional opponents and submitted another six.
    The high-volume offense of Josh Emmett (11-1) carried him to victory in UFC bouts with Jon Tuck and Scott Holtzman. Former Titan FC champ Des Green proved a tougher out, wearing down Emmett en route to a split decision victory.
    This will be his Featherweight debut.
    Arantes is well-rounded and extremely durable, but held back by iffy takedown defense. Luckily, Emmett isn’t much of a wrestling enthusiast, preferring to trade hands. Arantes has a more complete kickboxing game and is dangerous enough in scrambles to punish Emmett if he tries to change levels anyway.
    Cardio may be the key here. Arantes regularly comes on strong in the later portions of the fight and Emmett gassed badly against Green. “Sertanejo” absorbs Emmett’s early onslaught and ultimately whittles him down with heavy strikes and submission attempts.
    Prediction: Arantes via split decision
    Part 2 -

    155 lbs.: Marcin Held vs. Nasrat Haqparast

    Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) has not been kind to Marcin Held (22-7), whose Bellator MMA run earned him considerable hype when he first entered the Octagon in Nov. 2016. After a decision loss to Diego Sanchez and a controversial defeat against Joe Lauzon, Held spent two rounds dominating Damir Hadzovic before running headlong into a knee seven seconds into the third round.

    His 12 submission wins include six by leglock.
    Germany’s Nasrat Haqparast (8-1) lost in his professional mixed martial arts (MMA) debut and promptly decided he didn’t want to deal with that again, knocking out his next eight opponents. His last two fights have forced him to leave the first round, but he nonetheless picked up the finish both times.
    He steps in for Teemu Packalen on less than two weeks’ notice.
    Haqparast has the look of a quality prospect at the age of 22. His striking — anchored by a downright booming left hand — looks effective and entertaining. In addition, he packs some well-timed takedowns and ruthless ground-and-pound to support it. What he doesn’t have is high-level experience — his last two opponents, in reverse chronological order, were 5-1 and 8-5 when he fought them.
    The rest of his wins? 0-0, 0-0, 0-0, 0-0, 0-1-1, 0-1.
    Held, for all his recent struggles, remains an elite Lightweight with the durability to withstand Haqparast’s onslaught and overwhelm him on the mat. Haqparast’s overeagerness and inexperience doom him to an early takedown and subsequent submission.
    Prediction: Held via first-round submission

    265 lbs.:
    Anthony Hamilton vs. Adam Wieczorek

    Anthony Hamilton (15-8) is having some issues leaving the station. Hamilton — who joined UFC with MFC’s Heavyweight title and a knockout win over Smealinho Rama — has gone just 3-6 in the world’s largest fighting organization and enters the cage having lost three straight by first-round stoppage.
    “The Freight Train” steps in for the injured Dmitrii Smoliakov on less than three weeks notice.
    Adam Wieczorek has not tasted defeat since falling to Marcin Tybura six years ago in his second professional fight. He returned to the cage in 2014 and went on to stop his next seven opponents, five of them in the first round.
    Four of his five submission wins have come by armbar.
    First of all: Why the hell is Hamilton allowed to take this fight? He got TKO’d last month. Shouldn’t he still be in his no-contact medical suspension?
    With that aside, I face a conundrum. Wieczorek is just not that good — he’s got porous takedown defense, he retreats in a straight line when pressured, and his offensive striking consists of a jab and a reasonably sharp right hand he doesn’t throw nearly enough. If Hamilton’s skillset, mediocre as it is, was attached to even a passable chin I’d pick him in a heartbeat.
    Alas, Hamilton’s durability is nonexistent and I can’t imagine a one-month turnaround will help that in any way. Hamilton muscles him around for a bit before getting lamped.
    Prediction: Wieczorek via first-round knockout

    135 lbs.:
    Damian Stasiak vs. Brian Kelleher

    Damian Stasiak (10-4) put his debut loss to Yaotzin Meza behind him with impressive submissions of Filip Pejic and Davey Grant in 2016, but still entered his May fight with Pedro Munhoz as a massive underdog. The line proved accurate as, despite a strong effort, “Webster” came up short against “The Young Punisher’s” striking and grappling in a three-round decision loss.
    Five of his seven submission wins have come by rear-naked choke.
    Brian Kelleher (17-8) —formerly the ROC Bantamweight champion thanks to two wins over recent “Tuesday Night Contender Series” competitor Julio Arce — burst onto the scene with an upset submission of Iuri Alcantara in his UFC debut. This set him up as a favorite against Marlon Vera his next time out, only for “Chito” to score his own upset finish via armbar.
    “Boom” will give up two inches of height and four inches of reach to Stasiak.
    Stasiak surprised me quite a bit against Grant, but I’m still picking against him. “Webster’s” wrestling failed him against both Meza and Munhoz and, while Kelleher isn’t the fast-twitch marvel that Munhoz is, he’s still strong and well-rounded enough to put Stasiak on his back and hold his own on the feet.
    I wouldn’t be shocked to see Stasiak get the tap, especially considering Kelleher’s history of submission losses. That said, Kelleher’s experience with top-level fighters carries him to victory.
    Prediction: Kelleher via unanimous decision

    170 lbs.: Salim Touahri vs. Warlley Alves


    “Grizzly” has not tasted defeat since 2013, knocking out four of his last five opponents. In his most recent bout, Touahri (10-1) took on Sambo specialist Bayzet Khatkhohu in hostile territory and scored a terrific one-punch knockout in the first. He replaces the injured Jim Wallhead on a week’s notice.
    Alves (10-2) tore through The Ultimate Fighter: Brazil 3 with ease and got off to a red-hot 4-0 start in the UFC itself, scoring three submissions in the process. An upset loss to Bryan Barberena slowed his roll, after which he was overpowered by fellow Ultimate Fighter standout Kamaru Usman in Sao Paulo. His last four submission wins have come via guillotine.
    “Grizzly” is a good nickname for Touahri, who packs legitimate power and is surprisingly adept at catching opponents coming in. He’s not quite as schooled on the attack, however, and tends to lunge in with big, winging shots. While strong with knees and punches in the clinch, his wrestling looked iffy in recent fights and he gassed late in his latest trip to the third round.
    An upset is always a possibility considering Alves’ own cardio issues, but he has the athleticism to keep up with Touahri and the grappling skills to put him on his back and choke him out in short order. Expect some fun striking exchanges before Alves wrangles him to the mat and locks up his neck when Touahri tries to scramble up.
    Prediction: Alves by first-round submission

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  34. #69
    Shagdogy
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    Quote Originally Posted by turbozed View Post
    Decided to play Piechota. Maybe you guys can check my assumptions here (Hugo, Shagy?)

    Think Piechoa is a technically more sound striker. Just has to avoid Wilson's left hand since Wilson's attack is pretty unbalanced. But the main advantage is that Piechota's ground game is super slick. Made Craig White look like Craig White belt. We haven't seen much of Wilson on the ground except that he was repeatedly swept and then mounted by Frank Waisten Jr.

    Also, just take a look at Wilson's record. All straight jobbers until he got to the UFC. I don't think Wilson would've been signed by the UFC if he wasn't a 205er since that division is so slim. Now he's dropped down to MW which to me feels like some sort of backdoor Roth IRA conversion loophole but for MMA.

    Wilson does have big power with that left though, and there's a chance he lands something in the 1st round. But given how much he slows down, I don't see any way he wins if it gets to the 2nd or 3rd. I have a small hedge on Wilson round 1 at +575.
    Did my homework. Here's what I see:

    Wilson is powerful, athletic, crisp with the left side of his body. Left cross is solid, and left leg is solid. Problem that he has is that he only seems to be dangerous when he controls the octagon and is able to be first. Fighting backwards, he is terrible. Both Da Silva and Cutelaba were able to consistently push him backwards with pressure and land on him as he retreated. His offense going backwards is very very limited. His only response to heavy pressure seems to be to tie up and grab clinch position, but he's not dangerous there and he's not threatening takedowns. His cardio didn't seem as bad as people were talking IMO. He was able to hang in with Cutelaba throwing some major heat at him, and arguably he had the better cardio in round 3. That said, he loses the pop in his hands pretty quickly. Against Da Silva he looked to have lost a considerable amount of power only halfway through the first round. If the fight goes beyond round 1, his KO ability drops off big time and he starts throwing arm punches without as much behind them. Lastly, to me his chin looks very strong and he's never been subbed so he is hard to put away.

    Meanwhile, Piechota is dangerous with the left hand counters and has some serious power when he is able to come forward. He likes to hang back and get timing for counters early in fights though, so he will be putting strength vs. strength against Wilson early on since he does his best when coming forward and being first. Piechota has shown the ability to pressure once he gets comfortable though, and hopefully he has seen that backing Wilson up is a good path to victory. On the ground it should be no contest, Piechota has great sweeps and good attacks and should be able to handle Wilson if they end up there. However, Piechota's takedowns don't seem to be too great so this fight may just stay on the feet.

    What line did you get Turbo? I see Piechota in the -190-200 area. Given that this is Piechota's UFC debut and he will be the smaller guy, I can't call that excellent value, although I do think he should be favored. Seems like line is about right.

  35. #70
    PaperTrail07
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    Thanks JIBBS...Have Alvey myself by decision simply bc he is not aggressive...

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