1. #1
    THE_LOCKSMITH
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    UFC Fight Night: Rockhold vs. Branch (September 16, 2017)



    FS1, 10:00 pm ET
    Luke Rockhold vs David Branch
    Thiago Alves vs Mike Perry
    Hector Lombard vs Anthony Smith
    Gregor Gillespie vs Jason Gonzalez
    Sergio Moraes vs Kamaru Usman
    Justin Ledet vs Zu Anyanwu

    FS1, 8:00 pm ET
    Tony Martin vs Olivier Aubin-Mercier
    Anthony Hamilton vs Daniel Spitz
    Uriah Hall vs Krzysztof Jotko
    Felipe Arantes vs Luke Sanders

    UFC Fight Pass 7:30 pm ET
    Gilbert Burns vs Jason Saggo



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  2. #2
    Hugo de Naranja
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    Anyone think Branch has a chance or does Rockhold dominate him?
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  3. #3
    JIBBBY
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    I'm thinking Rockhold by sub myself Hugo... Branch is explosive but I don't think he can handle or survive Rockholds wrestling and ground game..

    A hedge with the Branch KO isn't out the question though...
    Last edited by JIBBBY; 09-12-17 at 02:29 PM.

  4. #4
    Demonata
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    Fluke cockhold a huge favorite so just cheering for him to losr.

  5. #5
    Hugo de Naranja
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    Quote Originally Posted by JIBBBY View Post
    I'm thinking Rockhold by sub myself Hugo... Branch is explosive but I don't think he can handle or survive Rockholds wrestling and ground game..

    A hedge with the Branch KO isn't out the question though...
    I think both those plays make sense. Branch's ground game is pretty high level so he might be able to make it the distance
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  6. #6
    JIBBBY
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    MMA MANIA - The one early early prelim fight



    155 lbs.: Jason Saggo (12-3) vs. Gilbert Burns (11-2)

    Canada’s Saggo got off to a roaring UFC start with a dominant stoppage of Josh Shockley, only to lose a close decision to Paul Felder soon after. He righted the ship with a split decision over Leandro Silva, but came up short like so many other wrestlers against suplex master Rustam Khabilov last December. He has submitted eight opponents and knocked out another three.
    “Durinho” brought a world-class BJJ pedigree into his UFC debut and rode it to three consecutive wins before running afoul of Rashid Magomedov in Brazil. He went on to submit Lukasz Sajewski, but came up short against an overweight Michel Prazeres two months later. His professional stoppages are split 7-3 between submissions and knockouts.
    Burns has done well for himself in the UFC, but it’s hard not to feel disappointed in his progress. While Magomedov and Prazeres are beasts in their own rights and losing to them is no shame, this is a guy with one of the UFC’s strongest grappling résumés and a terrific striking instructor in Henri Hooft. He should have been on the fringes of the top ten by now.
    He has to beat Saggo here if he wants to maintain his blue-chip status. The Canadian is a willing wrestler in his own right and will force Burns to demonstrate that he’s sufficiently rounded his game to challenge the lightweight elite. With everything Burns has going for him and the experience he gained in the loss to Prazeres, I’m leaning towards him wrapping up a rear naked choke midway through.
    Prediction: Burns by second-round submission
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  7. #7
    JerseyRobby
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    Platinum Mike getting downgraded. Opened up -225 now -140. It's a shame Alves is a shadow of his former self.

  8. #8
    JIBBBY
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    Quote Originally Posted by JerseyRobby View Post
    Platinum Mike getting downgraded. Opened up -225 now -140. It's a shame Alves is a shadow of his former self.
    Like Perry alot in this matchup.. Alves beginning to become fade material these days.. http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Mike-Perry-176179

    I think Perry could either win by KO or Decision so I'll play him straight.. Hope the odds go to even..

  9. #9
    travis91
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    Mike Perry is a personal friend of mine. This fight has been in the works for years.. its got a lot of behind the scenes storylines involved with it. Thiago will be training his ass off for this fight.

    However... I've known Mike for years, and I've never seen him so hungry before in my life. He wants that world title. I'm rolling with Platinum Perry every fight.

  10. #10
    JIBBBY
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    Quote Originally Posted by travis91 View Post
    Mike Perry is a personal friend of mine. This fight has been in the works for years.. its got a lot of behind the scenes storylines involved with it. Thiago will be training his ass off for this fight.

    However... I've known Mike for years, and I've never seen him so hungry before in my life. He wants that world title. I'm rolling with Platinum Perry every fight.
    Sounds good, I hope your friend Mike wins!!

    Alves is tough but he gasses and you can break him in the late rounds if you can avoid getting clipped early on.. Alves can take a punch so Mike is gonna have to keep hitting him and avoid being hit...

  11. #11
    firekillex
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    Quote Originally Posted by Hugo de Naranja View Post
    Anyone think Branch has a chance or does Rockhold dominate him?
    rockhold is going to starch him
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  12. #12
    PaperTrail07
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    Same guy also never gave Jouban a chance....Not hating...but nobody is made of steel.....If Perry does not get over aggressive and picks his shots his speed should be $...
    Quote Originally Posted by travis91 View Post
    Mike Perry is a personal friend of mine. This fight has been in the works for years.. its got a lot of behind the scenes storylines involved with it. Thiago will be training his ass off for this fight.

    However... I've known Mike for years, and I've never seen him so hungry before in my life. He wants that world title. I'm rolling with Platinum Perry every fight.

  13. #13
    JIBBBY
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    Quote Originally Posted by firekillex View Post
    rockhold is going to starch him
    If he doesn't get clipped on the chin like he did against Bisping.. Luke does not have the granite chin that's for sure.. Other then that he should starch him I agree..

    I give Branch a punchers chance in this one and that's about it as Rockhold is better every where...

  14. #14
    PaperTrail07
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    Alves is out of the fight.....FIGHT OFF.....great SMH.....

  15. #15
    JIBBBY
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    Quote Originally Posted by PaperTrail07 View Post
    Alves is out of the fight.....FIGHT OFF.....great SMH.....
    Shiiit ...

  16. #16
    travis91
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    Quote Originally Posted by PaperTrail07 View Post
    Same guy also never gave Jouban a chance....Not hating...but nobody is made of steel.....If Perry does not get over aggressive and picks his shots his speed should be $...
    you better re watch that fight... Perry clipped Jouban and his knees buckled. Used the cage to stay up.. one feeling of Mikes power and he ran the rest of the fight. Smart for jouban and a lesson learned from mike. Mike is the real deal with a work ethic of an animal..

    sadly though, Thiago Alves just pulled out of the fight

  17. #17
    PaperTrail07
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    I mean everyone is scared of the power....but he did run to victory....Feel this would have put MIKE on the MAP here.....sucks he pulled out SMH.....agree....he did....hope Mike did as well......he has a great style for the UFC ...
    Quote Originally Posted by travis91 View Post
    you better re watch that fight... Perry clipped Jouban and his knees buckled. Used the cage to stay up.. one feeling of Mikes power and he ran the rest of the fight. Smart for jouban and a lesson learned from mike. Mike is the real deal with a work ethic of an animal..

    sadly though, Thiago Alves just pulled out of the fight

  18. #18
    JIBBBY
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    Write ups coming in now -


    155 lbs.: Tony Martin vs. Olivier Aubin-Mercier

    Tony Martin (12-3) jumped right into the deep end when he joined UFC, starting 1-3 against the likes of Rashid Magomedov, Beneil Dariush and Leonardo Santos. He has since fixed his lingering cardio issues and won three straight, including a decision over Johnny Case in June.
    He stands three inches taller than Olivier Aubin-Mercier (9-2) at 6’0.”
    Aubin-Mercier’s Judo prowess carried him to The Ultimate Fighter (TUF): “Nations” finals, where he dropped a split decision to teammate Chad Laprise. He went on to win five of his next six fights, the sole blemish a decision loss to Carlos Diego Ferreira, and earned four submission wins in the process.
    All but one of his professional victories have come by tapout.
    It looks to me as though Martin has finally gotten his shit together. He’s enormous for the weight class and can now parlay that size and strength into overpowering offense without draining his gas tank. More significant, he’s become a legitimate threat as a striker, which should be the key against Aubin-Mercier.
    “The Quebec Kid’s” stocky frame lends itself well to murderous clinch strength, but he’ll be giving up range to a crisper boxer who ostensibly has the strength and wrestling acumen to force protracted striking engagements. Were this the Martin who disintegrated halfway through the second round like clockwork, I’d favor Aubin-Mercier to wear him down in the clinch. Now, however, I see Martin outboxing him and shutting down his takedowns on his way to a decision victory.
    Prediction: Martin via unanimous decision

    265 lbs.:
    Anthony Hamilton vs. Daniel Spitz

    Anthony Hamilton (15-7) has recently hit some bumps in the track after opening his UFC career 2-2. “The Freight Train” rebounded from a decision loss to Shamil Abdurakhimov with a 14-second knockout of Damian Grabowski, but soon found himself on the wrong end of consecutive bonus-winning finishes against Francis Ngannou and Marcel Fortuna, the latter of whom Hamilton outweighed by 48 pounds.
    Eight of his professional wins, including two of his three in UFC, have come by form of knockout.
    Daniel Spitz (5-1) racked up four first-round stoppages in his first five fights, including three in less than two minutes apiece. This set up a late-notice UFC debut against Mark Godbeer, who outstruck his lanky foe en route to handing him his first professional defeat.
    At 6’7,” he stands two inches taller than Hamilton.
    In one corner, we’ve got a massive underachiever whose size, power and wrestling pedigree consistently fail to produce results against above-average competition. In the other, we’ve got a green fighter one step below “prospect” who couldn’t keep a generic brawler in Godbeer off of him despite a seven-inch reach advantage.
    Stirring stuff.
    Unless Spitz has made monumental strides or Hamilton, in traditional Hamilton fashion, walks face-first into something brutal, bad things are in Spitz’s future. Hamilton finds his way inside, drops him with either punches or a double-leg, and pounds him out for the finish.
    Prediction: Hamilton via first-round technical knockout

    185 lbs.:
    Krzysztof Jotko vs. Uriah Hall

    A loss to Magnus Cedenblad in his second UFC appearance wasn’t enough to deter Krzysztof Jotko (19-2), who defeated five consecutive opponents to crack the Middleweight Top 10. Once there, he welcomed two-division WSOF champion David Branch back to UFC at UFC 211 and suffered a narrow split decision loss.
    He will give up two inches of arm and leg reach to Uriah Hall (12-8).
    It’s been more than four years since Hall tore through TUF 17, only to fall to Kelvin Gastelum at the Finale. Once hailed as a potential Anderson Silva-like figure, Hall now finds himself on a three-fight losing streak and bearing a 5-6 UFC record.
    Eight of his professional wins have come by (technical) knockout.
    Jotko — whom I’ve underestimated quite a bit in the past — remains a potent threat in the Middleweight division. He’s a dangerous wrestler and top control artist with the durability and boxing to stay alive and set things up on the feet.
    In short, not the sort of foe Hall can be relied upon to rebuild his career against.
    Hall will struggle to stay on his feet, especially with his notorious lack of volume, and what flashy shenanigans he unleashes will only serve to open up more takedown opportunities for his opponent. Hall’s always a threat to uncork a blink-and-you’ll-miss-it finisher, of course, but the likeliest outcome sees Jotko grind him down for the full fifteen.
    Prediction: Jotko via unanimous decision

    135 lbs.:
    Luke Sanders vs. Felipe Arantes

    Luke Sanders (11-1) — the former RFA Bantamweight champion — didn’t let short notice or a jump in weight stop him from demolishing Maximo Blanco in his Octagon debut and picking up a bonus in the process. Fourteen months later, he spent 1.5 rounds obliterating the highly-ranked Iuri Alcantara before tapping to a kneebar in one of 2017’s most shocking comebacks.
    He has knocked out six professional opponents and submitted two others.
    Felipe Arantes’ (18-8-1) 2015 drop to Bantamweight produced immediate results as he submitted Yves Jabouin and Jerrod Sanders in a round apiece. His next bout saw him face Mexican young gun Erik Perez, against whom “Sertanejo” dropped a split decision in hostile territory.
    This will be his first fight in 10 months.
    Arantes appears painfully close to the edge of gatekeeper territory, unable to break through. He’s a strong striker and a dangerous grappler, but appears doomed to be a massive headache for rising fighters rather than a contender in his own right. Sanders, a crisper puncher with quality wrestling and stomach-churning ground-and-pound, looks like another man destined to leave a narrowly-beaten Arantes in his wake.
    Sanders’ takedowns ought to be enough to nullify the threat of Arantes’ kicks and he’s capable enough from top position to avoid that lethal armbar. Arantes will have his moments — and may win a round — but Sanders edges him out in a fun tussle.
    Prediction: Sanders via unanimous decision
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  19. #19
    Sanity Check
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    Quote Originally Posted by JIBBBY View Post
    Write ups coming in now -
    I'm checking to see how well those write ups did @ the last ufc.

    https://www.sportsbookreview.com/for...2017-a-p2.html

    They went 4-6 without counting the main event.

    Even the write ups got murdered lol.

    Last event was a killa.

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  20. #20
    JIBBBY
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    Quote Originally Posted by Sanity Check View Post
    I'm checking to see how well those write ups did @ the last ufc.

    https://www.sportsbookreview.com/for...2017-a-p2.html

    They went 4-6 without counting the main event.

    Even the write ups got murdered lol.

    Last event was a killa.
    Like I said in the past I don't always agree with the write up predictions but you do get some key match up information at times out of the write ups.. Patrick Stewart still has a good track record over all year to year... He was very miss in the last event.. I saw that as well.. I can care less. I do alot more capping outside his short write ups.. I do appreciate and read them though..

    Sherdog record checking is key as well to see how fighters are winning fights or how they are losing fights lately..

    Then you have recent fight vids. Training camp info... Even after all that you still can pick fights wrong.. When you get 2 guys fighting in a cage anything is possible..

    Thanks for the bet points Sanity.. Glad someone appreciates my copy and paste posts ...
    Last edited by JIBBBY; 09-13-17 at 06:47 PM.

  21. #21
    Hugo de Naranja
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    Taking a 1u shot on Moraes at (+500). He is 6-0-1 in the UFC at Welterweight at might have the BJJ and grappling credentials to catch Usman with something.
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  22. #22
    bjpenn85
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    Quote Originally Posted by Hugo de Naranja View Post
    Taking a 1u shot on Moraes at (+500). He is 6-0-1 in the UFC at Welterweight at might have the BJJ and grappling credentials to catch Usman with something.
    But thats also the only advantage. Personally i hate to bet against fighters who are so much better athletically as well. I think Usman is maybe one of the most impressive prospects regardless of weight class in the ufc. To actually bet against him feels so wrong. +500 doesnt tempt me a bit. Usman isnt reckless either, i doubt he wil spend 1 sec on the ground with moraes on the basis of him displaying stellar fighter iq last fights.

  23. #23
    Hugo de Naranja
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    Quote Originally Posted by bjpenn85 View Post
    But thats also the only advantage. Personally i hate to bet against fighters who are so much better athletically as well. I think Usman is maybe one of the most impressive prospects regardless of weight class in the ufc. To actually bet against him feels so wrong. +500 doesnt tempt me a bit. Usman isnt reckless either, i doubt he wil spend 1 sec on the ground with moraes on the basis of him displaying stellar fighter iq last fights.
    So you think it will be a pure standup match?
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  24. #24
    Hugo de Naranja
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    Quote Originally Posted by Hugo de Naranja View Post
    Taking a 1u shot on Moraes at (+500). He is 6-0-1 in the UFC at Welterweight at might have the BJJ and grappling credentials to catch Usman with something.
    This fight reminds me a lot of Leo Santos versus Kevin Lee. Hyped prospect comes in as a massive favorite, Lee closed (-650), against an underrated grappler who has a chance to submit him. Lee opts to keep it standing where the fight is much closer and gets KO'ed. Truly think Moraes can win by any method of victory, and that there's value here.
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  25. #25
    bjpenn85
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    Quote Originally Posted by Hugo de Naranja View Post
    This fight reminds me a lot of Leo Santos versus Kevin Lee. Hyped prospect comes in as a massive favorite, Lee closed (-650), against an underrated grappler who has a chance to submit him. Lee opts to keep it standing where the fight is much closer and gets KO'ed. Truly think Moraes can win by any method of victory, and that there's value here.
    Good point. You may be right. I just think Usman evolves fight to fight and is going to steamroll almost everyone at this point. But Moraes can be tricky.
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  26. #26
    Hugo de Naranja
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    Quote Originally Posted by bjpenn85 View Post
    Good point. You may be right. I just think Usman evolves fight to fight and is going to steamroll almost everyone at this point. But Moraes can be tricky.
    Usman is a great prospect for sure. He'll probably win this I just don't think he should be THIS big of a favorite.
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  27. #27
    bjpenn85
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    Quote Originally Posted by Hugo de Naranja View Post
    Usman is a great prospect for sure. He'll probably win this I just don't think he should be THIS big of a favorite.
    I played Branch at +425, feel like that line also is a bit crazy. Does rockhold win? Most likely.

  28. #28
    firekillex
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    Quote Originally Posted by Hugo de Naranja View Post
    Usman is a great prospect for sure. He'll probably win this I just don't think he should be THIS big of a favorite.
    Easy decision win, odds suck big time though I agree.. we seen what can happen to big fav prospects this last weekend
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  29. #29
    JIBBBY
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    Quote Originally Posted by firekillex View Post
    Easy decision win, odds suck big time though I agree.. we seen what can happen to big fav prospects this last weekend
    Odds do suck but it probably still lands.. Usman is a decision machine..


    1411 Usman wins by 3 round decision -170

  30. #30
    PaperTrail07
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    Odds are there but don't see it cashing...usman is a killer
    Quote Originally Posted by Hugo de Naranja View Post
    Taking a 1u shot on Moraes at (+500). He is 6-0-1 in the UFC at Welterweight at might have the BJJ and grappling credentials to catch Usman with something.

  31. #31
    Sanity Check
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    This is what makes Sergio Moraes different from Usman's past opponents.



    Not that it matters if Moraes spends the entire fight on his back without finding subs, sweeps or being able to get back to his feet.
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  32. #32
    JIBBBY
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    1427 Moraes wins by submission +1035

    This fight should stay on the ground alot but Sergio hasn't grabbed a sub win in the UFC since 2013 though and that was against Neil Magny who is kinda of a fish out of water when grappling.... http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Sergio-Moraes-21343
    Last edited by JIBBBY; 09-14-17 at 02:34 PM.

  33. #33
    Hugo de Naranja
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    Quote Originally Posted by bjpenn85 View Post
    I played Branch at +425, feel like that line also is a bit crazy. Does rockhold win? Most likely.
    Agree on both points. Picking Rockhold but no way I can lay that juice
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  34. #34
    firekillex
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    +425 would give Branch a 19% chance of victory... for an edge youd need to think he wins 20%+
    imo he wins this 10% max 1/10 times... Luke Rockhold is the most skilled 185er on the planet and i think hell be hungry after that loss, he wants that belt back.... i think hes better in every aspect of MMA, id give Branch that 10% due to Rockholds chin only...
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  35. #35
    Demonata
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    Please lose fluke cockhold, I despise him. Was so happy when vitor kicked his head off

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