1. #1
    THE_LOCKSMITH
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    UFC 215: Johnson vs. Borg (September 09, 2017)



    Pay Per View 10:00 pm ET
    Demetrious Johnson vs Ray Borg (for flyweight title)
    Amanda Nunes vs Valentina Shevchenko (for bantamweight title)
    Junior Dos Santos vs Frncis Ngannou
    Gilbert Melendez vs Jeremy Stephens
    Rafael dos Anjos vs Neil Magny

    FS1, 8:00 pm ET
    Sara McMann vs Ketlen Vieira
    Ilir Latifi vs Tyson Pedro
    Henry Cejudo vs Wilson Reis
    Rick Glenn vs Gavin Tucker

    UFC Fight Pass 6:00 pm ET
    Arjan Bhullar vs Luis Henrique
    Ashlee Evans-Smith vs Sarah Moras
    Kajan Johnson vs Adriano Martins
    Mitch Clarke vs Alex White



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  2. #2
    Demonata
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    Dos Santos pulled out

  3. #3
    Kermit
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    Quote Originally Posted by Demonata View Post
    Dos Santos pulled out
    Yep. Looks like it is drug related.

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  4. #4
    Rich Benjamins
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    Should Borg really be +800? He's been destroying the competition, and Johnson struggled somewhat against Tim Elliott. Borg might merit a small lottery bet.

  5. #5
    Hugo de Naranja
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    Quote Originally Posted by Rich Benjamins View Post
    Should Borg really be +800? He's been destroying the competition, and Johnson struggled somewhat against Tim Elliott. Borg might merit a small lottery bet.
    What's his path to victory here? DJ's only two career losses where when he got taken down by significantly bigger Bantamweight opponents in his early career. I guess Borg has an outside chance at spamming TDs to win some rounds but I'm not sure he can do it for 3/5 rounds.

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  6. #6
    Hugo de Naranja
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    Quote Originally Posted by Rich Benjamins View Post
    Should Borg really be +800? He's been destroying the competition, and Johnson struggled somewhat against Tim Elliott. Borg might merit a small lottery bet.
    Also, he hasn't been destroying the competition. He got dominated by Scoggins, beat Smolka handily, and then had a close decision with Formiga...

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  7. #7
    Rich Benjamins
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    Quote Originally Posted by Hugo de Naranja View Post
    What's his path to victory here? DJ's only two career losses where when he got taken down by significantly bigger Bantamweight opponents in his early career. I guess Borg has an outside chance at spamming TDs to win some rounds but I'm not sure he can do it for 3/5 rounds.
    Exactly, he can spam takedowns. Push DJ against the fence. I'm not saying it's likely but he's got a shot. Think Borg is going to be a much tougher opponent than Reis for DJ.

  8. #8
    Hugo de Naranja
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    Quote Originally Posted by Rich Benjamins View Post
    Exactly, he can spam takedowns. Push DJ against the fence. I'm not saying it's likely but he's got a shot. Think Borg is going to be a much tougher opponent than Reis for DJ.
    Don't think he has the size to do that consistently but if DJ has a flaw it's TDD. When Pickett and Cruz beat him they each took him down 10 times. While I agree Borg is a tougher opponent for DJ than Reis, I don't think there's value in playing Borg here.

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  9. #9
    THE_LOCKSMITH
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  10. #10
    JerseyRobby
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    McMann has looked sharp lately and all her loses are to UFC champions. -240 seems tempting. Her wrestling should keep it standing and she's always in great shape.

  11. #11
    Rich Benjamins
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    Quote Originally Posted by JerseyRobby View Post
    McMann has looked sharp lately and all her loses are to UFC champions. -240 seems tempting. Her wrestling should keep it standing and she's always in great shape.
    Her wrestling should keep it standing? I don't think she would want to keep it standing against Vieira. I see a lot of better plays on this card than that one. Vieira had amazing improvement between her first 2 UFC fights. If she improves anymore, she could beat the shit out of McMann. It could look similar to Nunes/McMann. It's hard to play it bc you don't know how much Vieira has improved, but at -240 it's a pretty steep gamble IMO. I could be wrong if someone has a deep analysis on it.

    On first look, my favorite plays are White, Smith, Tucker, and Cejudo.

  12. #12
    Sanity Check
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    Ketlen Vieira is a brazilian wrestling champion. She has wrestling cred.

    I think Vieira fights out of nova uniao, the same gym as Jose Aldo, etc. It shows in her stand up with those good boxing skills & technique.

    Vieira could be the toughest opponent McMann has fought in a long time.

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  13. #13
    PaperTrail07
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    sadly...yes....he simply cant hang with DJ...
    Quote Originally Posted by Rich Benjamins View Post
    Should Borg really be +800? He's been destroying the competition, and Johnson struggled somewhat against Tim Elliott. Borg might merit a small lottery bet.

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  14. #14
    Unwritten Law
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    Best value is Tyson Pedro at plus money. I think wrong favorite here.
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  15. #15
    THE_RUDESTER
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    David Benavidez -2250
    Naoya Inoue -3000
    Billy Joe Saunders -240
    Shevchenko wins inside distance +174
    Demetrious Johnson -1250
    Atlanta Falcons -280
    Houston Texans -235
    Carolina Panthers -225

    Throwing $140 on these to win $1,630.
    I think it has a great chance at hitting.

  16. #16
    Rich Benjamins
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    [QUOTE=THE_RUDESTER;27191074]David Benavidez -2250
    Naoya Inoue -3000
    Billy Joe Saunders -240
    Shevchenko wins inside distance +174
    Demetrious Johnson -1250
    Atlanta Falcons -280
    Houston Texans -235
    Carolina Panthers -225


    Thanks for sharing. The Shevchenko bet doesn't seem like a good one. In fact, since it's only +174 I may take the opposite side. Shevchenko is a counter-striker. She doesn't go for the finish, she hangs back. She has only gotten TKOs against cans, which Nunes certainly is not. She got a lucky armbar in her last fight because Pena isn't a great jiu-jitsu practitioner and didn't expect it. Shevchenko will not get a sub vs Nunes. Are you banking on Nunes gassing out and then quitting to strikes? That's a possibility but slim IMO. But I have been surprised before in fights, like I couldn't picture Weidman to get a sub against Gastellum when someone on a forum predicted it.

  17. #17
    THE_RUDESTER
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    @ rich benjamins
    I like Shevchenko in this one. I can see her surviving some big shots early and finishing strong in the late rounds when Nunes is winded. Nunes wins by going for the kill early and I don't think she'll do that this fight and as the fight goes it will favor Shevchenko. I don't see Nunes fighting for a full 25 mins. #AndNew

  18. #18
    GR33D
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    agree with unwritten. tyson is well known over here in aussie land, he was introduced to fighting at a young age by his father and has been surrounded by great fighters his whole life. has huge potential and is very well rounded.
    tyson towers over latifi, they dont even look like they should be in the same weight class, not to mention the reach is 6 inches different.
    the things tyson needs to work on are his cardio and his overall defence, he loves to get hit. with these things said this is why the odds are in favour of latifi, one decent punch and its lights out for tyson.
    i still think tyson will get the W however and will have a decent bet on him

  19. #19
    GR33D
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    also think magny is value aswell. dont see how dos anjos wins other then to clinch/ take it to the mat
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  20. #20
    Rich Benjamins
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    Quote Originally Posted by THE_RUDESTER View Post
    @ rich benjamins
    I like Shevchenko in this one. I can see her surviving some big shots early and finishing strong in the late rounds when Nunes is winded. Nunes wins by going for the kill early and I don't think she'll do that this fight and as the fight goes it will favor Shevchenko. I don't see Nunes fighting for a full 25 mins. #AndNew
    I didn't say that Shevchenko wasn't going to win. She may very well win on the judges scorecards. But I don't think she's going to stop Nunes. You really think Nunes is going to gas out and lay down like a bitch to Shevchenko? Especially with all the leadup to this fight and everyone constantly criticizing Nunes for her lack of cardio? Nunes is bigger than Shevchenko as well. I don't see a stoppage happening, likely not from either side, but less likely by Shevchenko. BOL

  21. #21
    Sanity Check
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    Thinking of upgrading.

    Are points reset to zero after upgrade to pro?

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  22. #22
    firekillex
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    Quote Originally Posted by Sanity Check View Post
    Thinking of upgrading.

    Are points reset to zero after upgrade to pro?
    you can only keep 3k i think
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  23. #23
    JIBBBY
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    Tough card I'm having a real tough time picking winners especially when you factor in the odds.. I may go light on this event.. I do like Ngannou, RDA and Stevens so far though..

    Hard to touch the main event with Might Mouse at those odds.. Even the props are hard to work with..
    Last edited by JIBBBY; 09-07-17 at 01:58 PM.

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  24. #24
    JIBBBY
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    MMA mania Patrick Stewart -



    155 lbs.: Mitch Clarke vs. Alex White

    It’s been six years since Mitch Clarke (11-4) debuted in UFC with a technical knockout loss to John Cholish. A narrow loss to Anton Kuivanen gave way to two straight wins, including a phenomenal upset submission of Al Iaquinta, but he enters the cage on the heels of consecutive losses to Michael Chiesa and Joe Duffy.
    This will be his first fight in 14 months and just his second since April 2014.
    After a 2-2 run as a UFC Featherweight, which included a “Performance of the Night”-winning knockout and a decision over Artem Lobov, Alex White (11-3) made the jump to Lightweight in January. He took on rising prospect Tony Martin in his 155-pound debut and suffered a unanimous decision loss.
    He owns five wins by submission and four by (technical) knockout.
    White did better than I thought he would against Martin, but he also struggled with the extremely raw Clay Collard. It’s also worth mentioning that his two UFC wins came against Artem Lobov and Estevan Payan, the latter of whom went on to lose six of his next eight.
    Clarke is a strong grappler when he can find his way to the cage and White could have some issues with his size. The Canadian ekes out a win on his home turf with a strong top game.
    Prediction: Clarke via split decision

    265 lbs.: Luis Henrique vs.
    Arjan Bhullar

    Luis Henrique (10-3) had the misfortune of welcoming Francis Ngannou to UFC in 2015, suffering a brutal knockout loss midway through the second round. Consecutive submission wins over Dmitry Smolyakov and Christian Colombo proved he belonged in UFC, though Marcin Tybura proved too stiff a test in March.
    At 24, he is seven years his opponent’s junior.
    Arjan Bhullar’s (6-0) wrestling career saw him win bronze at the Pan American Games, win gold at the Commonwealth Games, and represent Canada at the 2012 Olympics. He made his mixed martial arts (MMA) debut in 2014 and earned a regional Heavyweight title on his way to UFC.
    Half of his professional wins have come by form of knockout.
    There’s not much MMA footage of Bhullar out there besides highlights, but I’m leaning toward him anyway. Henrique just doesn’t seem to have a Plan B when the takedown’s not there and, though those two UFC wins were impressive, it’s worth noting that Smolyakov and Colombo are among the worst in the division. Bhullar’s on a different level wrestling-wise and, importantly, has experience going five rounds.
    Henrique has size, youth and experience, but Bhullar’s lived the grind for longer. He outgrapples the Brazilian for a victorious debut.
    Prediction: Bhullar via unanimous decision

    155 lbs.:
    Kajan Johnson vs. Adriano Martins

    Kajan Johnson (21-12-1), representing his native Canada, reached the semifinals of The Ultimate Fighter (TUF): “Nations” before winding up on the wrong end of the season’s best knockout against Chad Laprise. He’s gone 2-1 in UFC itself, rebounding from a debut loss to Tae Hyun Bang with decisions over Lipeng Zhang and Naoyuki Kotani.
    This will be his first fight in nearly two years.
    Adriano Martins (28-8) entered UFC on an 11-1 run and promptly dispatched Daron Cruickshank with a bonus-winning straight armbar. He fell to Donald Cerrone his next time out, but won three straight and earned two bonuses before dropping a split decision to Leonardo Santos last October. He owns thirteen wins by form of knockout.
    This fight more or less comes down to how busy Martins decides to be. He has more than enough power to crack Johnson’s shaky chin and figures to be the superior grappler. That said, he had all the tools to beat Santos, too, but gave the fight away by simply not doing enough.
    Hopefully, the Santos loss will serve as a wake-up call. Johnson doesn’t have the firepower to dent Martins or the wrestling to put him in any bad spots. Martins finds Johnson’s chin partway through the first round.
    Prediction: Martins via first-round technical knockout

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  25. #25
    Hugo de Naranja
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    Quote Originally Posted by JIBBBY View Post
    Tough card I'm having a real tough time picking winners especially when you factor in the odds.. I may go light on this event.. I do like Ngannou, RDA and Stevens so far though..

    Hard to touch the main event with Might Mouse at those odds.. Even the props are hard to work with..
    Remember that Ngannou fight got cancelled
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  26. #26
    JIBBBY
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    Quote Originally Posted by GR33D View Post
    also think magny is value aswell. dont see how dos anjos wins other then to clinch/ take it to the mat
    He could kick the body and those skinny legs of Magny.. RDA better wrestler will take him down though..

    Magny is a tall rangy fighter like Nate Diaz..



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  27. #27
    JIBBBY
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    Quote Originally Posted by Hugo de Naranja View Post
    Remember that Ngannou fight got cancelled
    Yup.. You're right.. JDS dodged a bullet...http://www.ufc.com/

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  28. #28
    Shagdogy
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    Quote Originally Posted by GR33D View Post
    agree with unwritten. tyson is well known over here in aussie land, he was introduced to fighting at a young age by his father and has been surrounded by great fighters his whole life. has huge potential and is very well rounded.
    tyson towers over latifi, they dont even look like they should be in the same weight class, not to mention the reach is 6 inches different.
    the things tyson needs to work on are his cardio and his overall defence, he loves to get hit. with these things said this is why the odds are in favour of latifi, one decent punch and its lights out for tyson.
    i still think tyson will get the W however and will have a decent bet on him
    Striking defense, yes. Cardio, how do you know? He hasn't fought out of the 1st round. Latifi is most likely going to make him so we will probably see what he has for a gas tank. I believe Pedro is a true prospect but Latifi can test him. It'll be interesting if it stays on the feet entirely.

  29. #29
    JIBBBY
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    Quote Originally Posted by Shagdogy View Post
    Striking defense, yes. Cardio, how do you know? He hasn't fought out of the 1st round. Latifi is most likely going to make him so we will probably see what he has for a gas tank. I believe Pedro is a true prospect but Latifi can test him. It'll be interesting if it stays on the feet entirely.
    I think rule goes don't bet against undefeated fighters at the UFC level.. Pedro is undefeated.. Pedro for win are my initial thoughts.. http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Tyson-Pedro-146831

    He is raw though.. Maybe Pedro 1st round finish hedged with Latifi by KO.. Still working this fight out in my head and on paper..

    UFC 215 - Light Heavyweight 3 rounds - Rogers Place - Edmonton, Canada - PPV
    Sat 9/9 1301 Tyson Pedro -140 o1½ +105
    10:30PM 1302 Ilir Latifi +120 u1½ -125

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  30. #30
    Rich Benjamins
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    I'll say it again: White, Tucker, Evans-Smith, Cejudo. Those are my 4 horses on this card. The first 3 are fighting cans. And Cejudo is just a beast, Reis has nothing for him.

    The rest of the fights I feel are more risky, due to either the lack of payoff or bigger chance that the dog can win.

  31. #31
    turbozed
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    When do reduced lines come out for 5Dimes? Latifi and RDA lines have gotten into attractive territory but I wouldn't mind saving even a couple more bucks

  32. #32
    turbozed
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    Ray Borg now out of main event with illness.

    There goes my MM Rd4 +975 bet that was sure to cash.

  33. #33
    firekillex
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    both of my fav bets for this card are cancelled..... and the 2 of the top 3 fights i wanted to see are gone.... this card just went from exciting to FOX level... bring out the illegal streams , aint paying for this shit
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  34. #34
    GR33D
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    Quote Originally Posted by JIBBBY View Post
    He could kick the body and those skinny legs of Magny.. RDA better wrestler will take him down though..

    Magny is a tall rangy fighter like Nate Diaz..
    magny has a 4" reach and a 7" leg reach advantage on diaz thats a massive difference, plus he has more weapons then diaz, uses his kicks/elbows/knees. i wouldnt be surprised if he catches RDA on the way in for a take down. im not saying he will 100% win, i just like those odds.

    Quote Originally Posted by Shagdogy View Post
    Striking defense, yes. Cardio, how do you know? He hasn't fought out of the 1st round. Latifi is most likely going to make him so we will probably see what he has for a gas tank. I believe Pedro is a true prospect but Latifi can test him. It'll be interesting if it stays on the feet entirely.
    in his last fight he was showing signs of exhaustion towards the end of the first round. it was his first fight out of australia which could of been why

  35. #35
    brooks85
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    sob
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