[Rich Benjamins]

UFC Fight Pass, 8pm ET

Mike Rodriguez vs Jamelle Jones

Julio Arce vs Peter Petties

Alex Perez vs Kevin Gray

Donavon Frelow vs Ricky Simon

Shelton Graves vs Everett Sims

[Rich Benjamins]

Here we go again! Lets get some capping on this before the odds come out. Cmon Jibby, get in this bitch!

[turbozed]

Thanks for starting this up Rich. Even though we got a good braintrust going on here with me, you, and Hugo, I think we should get more people involved here.

[JIBBBY]

I'll try and cap this event tomorrow morning.. I'll give it shot...

[Rich Benjamins]

I'll try and cap this event tomorrow morning.. I'll give it shot...

Thanks Jibby. There's not much footage on most of the fighters. But the research I was able to do, I found some good bets. I'm going to wait till I'm able to place my bets on the other books besides 5Dimes before capping here.

[JIBBBY]

Thanks Jibby. There's not much footage on most of the fighters. But the research I was able to do, I found some good bets. I'm going to wait till I'm able to place my bets on the other books besides 5Dimes before capping here.

That's the problem with capping these fights, just not alot to research and to go off of.. Even finding past fight vids can be challenging and if you do find them it will be them beating raw bums. Still hard to gauge their talents so to speak.

I'll be betting small with these Tuesday night fights if I do play it.. Be relying on you guys posting up information as you and others probably know these fighters much better then I do..

[Shagdogy]

That's the problem with capping these fights, just not alot to research and to go off of.. Even finding past fight vids can be challenging and if you do find them it will be them beating raw bums. Still hard to gauge their talents so to speak.

I'll be betting small with these Tuesday night fights if I do play it.. Be relying on you guys posting up information as you and others probably know these fighters much better then I do..

It's hard to piece together but one thing I've found is that as you look through these lesser known guys, obviously talent jumps off the screen. I've had success with this a few times on these contender series fights. Sean O'Malley and Kyler Phillips come to mind.

This particular card is tough but I see a few edges here and there. Nothing that I will be betting if they open as solid favs. I expect these lines to be relatively close just because it's hard to really build a good picture of these guys.

One thing that's pretty cool for me is Peter Petties is a hometown guy. Went to school with some of my buddies. I know a lot of people rooting for him.

[Shagdogy]

Thanks Jibby. There's not much footage on most of the fighters. But the research I was able to do, I found some good bets. I'm going to wait till I'm able to place my bets on the other books besides 5Dimes before capping here.

So you opened the thread but you don't wanna share what you've seen until your bets are in? The books besides 5dimes are gonna wait until the line movement really chills out before they open their lines. We've seen that every week. I don't think there's much we can do here to get ourselves better lines other than getting on 5dimes and jumping on the lines ASAP.

[Rich Benjamins]

It's hard to piece together but one thing I've found is that as you look through these lesser known guys, obviously talent jumps off the screen. I've had success with this a few times on these contender series fights. Sean O'Malley and Kyler Phillips come to mind.
This particular card is tough but I see a few edges here and there. Nothing that I will be betting if they open as solid favs. I expect these lines to be relatively close just because it's hard to really build a good picture of these guys.

One thing that's pretty cool for me is Peter Petties is a hometown guy. Went to school with some of my buddies. I know a lot of people rooting for him.

Yep, Petties is a guy I'd bet on as long as he's not a big favorite. He seems to have more room for improvement, and KO power. His opponent is a fighter who has been around awhile, and normally fights in a lower weight class. Petties seems like a better athlete and hits harder, is stronger. Not a lock by any means though.

[JIBBBY]

I can't find one single write up or youtube vid on this event.. No one is covering it.. Maybe something will pop up tomorrow when the lines come out... MMA MANIA nothing.. Youtube only covers recap and previews of last weeks event..

[Shagdogy]

I can't find one single write up or youtube vid on this event.. No one is covering it.. Maybe something will pop up tomorrow when the lines come out... MMA MANIA nothing.. Youtube only covers recap and previews of last weeks event..

FWIW Jibbs here's some highlights:

**Petties (5-2) vs Arce (12-2)
Petties is a southpaw with a real wide, low, sideways stance. Prioritizes kicks and has a hell of a left leg. His hands also have good speed but he doesn't go to them to initiate offense as much as he probably should. Primarily counters with them unless he has his opponent retreating. He is good at setting distance with striking and staying out of opponents' range. He can be outworked for takedowns by a larger, relentless grappler, and he is a little too comfortable on his back. He's competent and will throw triangles and armbars up but he's not gonna get them against solid opponents. His cardio is good and even in fights that he's lost he has looked fresh in round 3. His two losses are by decision, so he has never been subbed or KO'd.

Arce is a Tiger Schulman guy with 12-2 record, 10 wins by sub or decision and only 2 KO's but you wouldn't know it by watching him fight. He likes to box. He's also a southpaw like Petties, and he is also very good at setting distance and staying outside of his opponents' range. He does not kick much but his jab and cross are crisp, quick, straight, and long. He's good at landing with his hands and slipping punches and avoiding damage. His use of distance allows him to defend shots pretty easily. On the ground he lets go of some solid GnP.

Tough fight to call. Both guys are southpaws who like to strike and set the distance. Petties will have the reach and should be able to use it with his kicks, but Arce is a bit more crisp with his hands and is real good at firing them straight and long. I really think this fight is a toss-up and should be pretty entertaining. The only way I bet it is on the underdog if the line is too wide.

** Frelow (6-2) vs Simon (9-1)
Frelow has fast hands. He's a switch stance fighter and he likes to move in and out with his strikes. He has 4 sub wins and 0 KO wins so he's not a knockout threat. He has been worked over twice by stronger Dagestani grapplers for both of his losses by decision.

Simon is a bit more of a tank. Likes to move forward on his feet and throws power with his hands and right leg. He embraces exchanges and is hittable at times, but his chin has held up for the most part. He often pressures to cage where he throws good short elbows or dumps guys with strong takedowns. On the ground he favors GnP and tries to punish.

This looks like Simon's fight to lose. He's younger, more powerful, and matches up well with Frelow's skillset. Simon has been finished once by RNC but he was rocked and dropped so it was more of a club and sub. Frelow doesn't seem to possess the power to be able to trade with Simon successfully and do enough damage to get a stoppage, and it's hard to imagine him winning a decision against the younger, larger, more powerful Simon.

** Mike Rodriguez (8-2) vs Jamelle Jones (7-4)
Hard to find much tape on Rodriguez but at least you can see his most recent fight. All of his 8 wins are by stoppage with 6 by TKO. He's tall. Smooth movement on his feet. Strikes nice and easy without much wasted effort. Doesn't use his reach as well as he maybe should but he is active in the clinch with knees and short strikes. His TDD is decent but not bulletproof and he is good at getting back to his feet when taken down. If opponents can secure the takedown and get him flattened out it does look like he may struggle a bit with solid BJJ transitions. Seems to have pretty good grit.

Jamelle Jones has been on TUF where he lost by first round TKO. He’s strong and athletic and has good blast doubles. Definitely a strong wrestler. I feel like you can see his muscles fill up with lactic acid though and his arms get heavy and lack technique quickly. His wins are vast majority first round, and a lot of his losses are beyond round 1 as a result of his quickly fading cardio.

Jones relies on power and explosiveness which only seems to last him about one round. I think he's successful early with some takedowns but has trouble finding his range with the striking. Once he tires a little and his arms slow, I think Rodriguez can pick him apart, beat him up, and stop him by TKO.



So there ya go. Take those for what they're worth. Just my opinions based on a little bit of research. Wish I could see more fights of these guys. The other matchups aren't even worth writing up due to the lack of footage on one or both of the fighters. Simon and Rodriguez are the two I feel most confident for wins.

[turbozed]

Shagy: I agree with your assessment of Simon/Frelow. Simon should be the favorite here, probably close to -200. Simon should have the size advantage having fought at FW whereas Frelow has fought at FLW. Frelow really steps in off balanced making him very easy to takedown and Simon has good timing for doing exactly that to opponents coming in on him. Simon can really have his way with Frelow as long as he fights smart, which he as done in the past. On the feet, it's a bit more even. Frelow has some power but guys with good defense can easily avoid his wild hooks. Simon can be hit, and his submission loss was a club and sub so I count that as a KO.

Bottom line is that it's hard to bet too heavy on Simon without a hedge on Frelow KO (which I don't know will be available here). I'm looking in taking the O/U instead (leaning over, but obviously depends on price).

[turbozed]

Lines are out on 5D. Can't believe Simon is a 4-1 favorite here. That's way steep. Might have to hold my nose and play Frelow. He has the ability to land a good punch on Simon and Simon was dropped and finished before.

[turbozed]

Ended up taking a few O/U's

Shelton/Sims O1.5 for +140
Simon/Frelow U2.5 for +170

Small bet on Frelow as a 3-1 underdog. He has the ability to hurt Simon with his hands, but he will most likely just get taken down repeatedly.

[Shagdogy]

Hate these lines. Might stab at Petties if he stays +250 by the time my book opens. That's about it. Will look into O/U but of course have to take into account the way these fights put pressure on guys to get early finishes.

Also something to consider... 7 contracts have been awarded, 5 KO winners and 2 decision winners. There haven't been many subs in these fights and def none to get a contract (I remember Byrd getting a sub. Any others?). These fighters have to have noticed that.

[turbozed]

I'm on Frelow at +290 for small. Had Simon capped as a -200 fave so just playing value here.


Took the under 2.5 in Frelow/Simon at +170
Took the over 1.5 in in Sims/Graves at +140


Simon can be hurt and went down to just a straight punch against dos Santos. Frelow has power to connect with some winging hooks. More likely, Simon can just take dos Santos down and win a comfy decision, but the Dana White effect should be a factor here. Frelow's chin himself has not been tested. He's fought cans so far and the two Magomeds were his only competition and neither really put pressure and volume on Frelow like Simon can. These two may just throw leather.

As far as Sims/Graves goes, Graves can make this fight sloppy and a lot of time might tick down with clinching and fence exchanges. Sims has 1 round KO power, but his opponents have been terrible. It will be a quick fight if either Sims has absolutely zero ground game and gets subbed or Sims has high level distance management and TD defense and can shrug Graves off to keep it a striking match. At these guys' level, both scenarios seem unlikely or at least not more than 50/50.

[PaperTrail07]

On Sims I expect a late finish.....AND MIGHT even take the over at +130....Graves wins it will be a non contract type of fight with him laying on Sims....and Sims could easily win a decision...

[Rich Benjamins]

OK, I've placed my bets. I bet on Petties small at +280. Betonline has better odds than 5Dimes right now. I've got Simon at -400. It's not nearly the deal that we got last time on Phillips, but I'll take it. He's the one the show is setup to win. I also have small on Rodriguez and Perez. I bet on Perez because I don't think Gray belongs in the UFC. The following are some of my notes, they're sloppy but iiwii.

Mike Rodriguez vs Jamelle Jones (205)


Rodriguez (7-2)


Last 3 fights got 1st rd TKOs. Lost to a lame submission earlier. All 3 of last fights were in 2017, in CES.


reversed a td vs Hooben and GnP with elbows for the TKO.


In 2016, won by an amazing flying knee vs Ewins.


Interview with Rodriguez - he trained the flying knee. Said he made a mistake in his Healy fight. He just moves on from the loss. Says Hooben has a really good grappling game and a good wrestler. Also he's tough.


Rodriguez has the right mindset, is more worried about what he's going to do than his opponent's going to do. He's not going to force anything, just relax and pick his shots, and it all comes natural.


Jamelle Jones (7-4)


Won most of his fights by TKO. Lost last fight by TKO. Fought in KOTC and CFFC, not as good organizations as CES.


He won via banana split. Shows his MMA acumen. His standup doesn't seem great though. Rodriguez could merk him. He's a great wrestler, an upcoming striker.


Julio Arce vs Peter Petties (145)


Arce (12-2) won last 4. Before that, lost 2 to Kelleher, no shame there. Although Kelleher is a natural 135 lber and didn't look too good his last fight. Arce has fought 4 times in the last year.


Interview with Lynch. Heard about matchup only 3 weeks before as well as Petties. He's been training for his other fight.


Arce used to be bantamweight, so he'll be the smaller fighter here.


Petties (5-2) A southpaw. Has a w/l alternating record. Lost 2 split decisions. Got a KO head kick and recenlty won a decision. Had an interview with James Lynch. A short notice matchup, by 3 weeks. At a burger 3 weeks ago on the call. bad diet prob. His last fight vs Pierce, he couldn't finish him, but Pierce took a lot of damage. Really likes the matchup vs Arce. His weight cut has gone well, is working with lockhart to have a better weight cut. Looking forward to getting hand raised. Best training camp thus far. He's a very unpredictable fighter. Everything coming full circle.


Petties tends to back up when facing pressure, like he did in his match vs Pennington. He had an impressive KO, but Pennington never accomplished anything.


There aren't enough fights to figure this one out.


But probably Petties. Arce likely reached his peak awhile ago whereas Petties has more potential. Arce has no KO power but Petties does.


Alex Perez vs Kevin Gray


Perez (17-4) Won last 4 fights mostly by decision. Lost previous 2 by sub. Tells me that he's great on the feet, not as good at grappling. Has 24 fights and is only 25.


Gray (9-3)
Won via guillotine last fight. Lost 2 fights ago by guillotine. Won a lot recently by decision, beat Eric Shelton 3 years ago.


Donavon Frelow vs Ricky Simon (135)


Frelow (6-2) Is a little older at age 32.
Lost last fight, decision to Magomedov. Won pervious fight by Split. Lost previous to Bibulatov in 2015.


Simon (9-1) Young, only 24.


Lost by RNC 3 fights ago. Won all the rest, mostly by decision. Won last 2, one by unan dec, the other by arm-triangle choke sub.


Shelton Graves vs Everett Sims (heavyweight)


Graves (6-3)
Is good at subs, and punches. Won last 4 fights. Looks like a beast although kind of chubby.


Sims (4-0)
Last 3 fights won by KO. Looks powerful, is 6'5" tall. Is with a good gym, ATT. Finished all fights in 1st round.

[PaperTrail07]

Hard not to bet Petties on those odds...but I see him getting leeched to the point his athleticism is useless.....hopefully he lands a bomb for us...

[JIBBBY]

^^Sims and Graves are HW's you guys sure this one goes past 1.5? Just looking at sherdog makes me gun shy and I'll tell ya way.... Rich kinda explained it this way in his above post..

Graves does get his finishes lately in the 2nd and 3rd rounds.. I could possibly see the over maybe happening with this dude.. http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Shelton-Graves-89415

Sims though is a different story, 4 pro fights and 4 1st round wins.. Guy has never fought into the 2nd round.. http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Everett-Sims-95469

Dana White's Contender Series 5 - Heavyweight 3 rounds - UFC Training Centre - Las Vegas, Nevada - UFC Fight Pass
Tue 8/8		1401 Shelton Graves		+100	o1½ +130
8:00PM		1402 Everett Sims		-120	u1½ -150

[PaperTrail07]

Like Sims to Win.......Had to Pick....would go over as well...

[Demonata]

Hmmm. This card sure is tricky

[Shagdogy]

Agree with everyone that the Petties line is too wide. He is too good of an athlete to not be given a better shot. When you consider that they will both likely stand and bang trying to catch Dana's eye, strategy goes out the window and this becomes a more even matchup. Arce loves to pick at guys with his long jab and cross and he's good at it. Excellent head movement and use of distance makes him hard to hit. Problem that both Petties and Arce face is that both guys are durable and both are good at using distance to avoid much damage. They need to make it exciting, they probably know that, so I think this becomes a pretty even matchup. Split decision one way or the other I think.

[Shagdogy]

Has anyone found tape of Sims in an MMA fight? I like that he's at ATT and he definitely seems to be the more technical guy, but can he defend a takedown? What will he do against the pressure of Graves? Seen Graves cracked a few times in his fights and his chin seems decent.

[PaperTrail07]

Not sure on TDD but his Tie up/Grapple and Knees look ok IMO.....kinda why I want to bet the over if Graves just grabs and holds it will cruise over....

Has anyone found tape of Sims in an MMA fight? I like that he's at ATT and he definitely seems to be the more technical guy, but can he defend a takedown? What will he do against the pressure of Graves? Seen Graves cracked a few times in his fights and his chin seems decent.

[PaperTrail07]

Only Glory....

Has anyone found tape of Sims in an MMA fight? I like that he's at ATT and he definitely seems to be the more technical guy, but can he defend a takedown? What will he do against the pressure of Graves? Seen Graves cracked a few times in his fights and his chin seems decent.

[PaperTrail07]

Shag you have me fuckn spooked now LOL......betting the over LOL...and Over+130 SIMS -120...

[PaperTrail07]

Down to (3) fights on heritage.......fights off or what?

[PaperTrail07]

Pulled both +$ stabs

[Shagdogy]

Shag you have me fuckn spooked now LOL......betting the over LOL...and Over+130 SIMS -120...

Don't get me wrong, I'm not impressed by Graves. He looks sloppy to me, but he does have some powerful takedowns and he puts a LOT of pressure on guys. Sims definitely looks lighter on his feet and looser with his strikes, but none of that matters if he's on his back. Without seeing it I don't want to assume he can stop the takedowns.

When betting this fight, it seems like if you like the over, you like Graves. Betting Sims seems to contradict the over, unless he survives a round and a half on his back and then beats up Graves if he tires.

[JIBBBY]

This is how I played it so far.. Not confident but playing it anyways.. I'm trusting alot on what you guys posted up. Was able to see some fight footage and look over the sherdog records.. That's about it..

$50.00

$75.00

Pending

8/8/17 8:30pm UFC Fighting 1301 Donavon Frelow/Ricky Simon Under 2½ +150*

$50.00

$125.00

Pending

8/8/17 9:30pm UFC Fighting 1101 Peter Petties +250* vs Julio Arce

$120.00

$100.00

Pending

8/8/17 8:00pm UFC Fighting 1402 Everett Sims -120* vs Shelton Graves

$150.00

$111.10

Pending

8/8/17 10:00pm UFC Fighting 1001 Jamelle Jones/Mike Rodriguez Under 1½ -135*

$70.00	$75.50	Pending	2 Team Parlay
				Pending	8/8/17 9:00pm UFC Fighting 1202 Alex Perez -175* vs Kevin Gray
				Pending	8/8/17 8:30pm UFC Fighting 1302 Ricky Simon -310* vs Donavon Frelow

[Demonata]

What order are the fights in? What's the first fight?

[JIBBBY]

What order are the fights in? What's the first fight?

It starts from the bottom to top below...

Dana White's Contender Series 5 - Light Heavyweight 3 rounds - UFC Training Centre - Las Vegas, Nevada - UFC Fight Pass
Tue 8/8		1001 Jamelle Jones		+160	o1½ +115
10:00PM		1002 Mike Rodriguez		-185	u1½ -135
Dana White's Contender Series 5 - Featherweight 3 rounds - UFC Training Centre - Las Vegas, Nevada - UFC Fight Pass
Tue 8/8		1101 Peter Petties		+205	o2½ -170
9:30PM		1102 Julio Arce		-245	u2½ +150
Dana White's Contender Series 5 - Flyweight 3 rounds - UFC Training Centre - Las Vegas, Nevada - UFC Fight Pass
Tue 8/8		1201 Kevin Gray		+150	o2½ -185
9:00PM		1202 Alex Perez		-170	u2½ +160
Dana White's Contender Series 5 - Bantamweight 3 rounds - UFC Training Centre - Las Vegas, Nevada - UFC Fight Pass
Tue 8/8		1301 Donavon Frelow		+250	o2½ -165
8:30PM		1302 Ricky Simon		-300	u2½ +145
Dana White's Contender Series 5 - Heavyweight 3 rounds - UFC Training Centre - Las Vegas, Nevada - UFC Fight Pass
Tue 8/8		1401 Shelton Graves		-105	o1½ +140
8:00PM		1402 Everett Sims		-115	u1½ -160

[Demonata]

It starts from the bottom to top below...

Dana White's Contender Series 5 - Light Heavyweight 3 rounds - UFC Training Centre - Las Vegas, Nevada - UFC Fight Pass
Tue 8/8		1001 Jamelle Jones		+160	o1½ +115
10:00PM		1002 Mike Rodriguez		-185	u1½ -135
Dana White's Contender Series 5 - Featherweight 3 rounds - UFC Training Centre - Las Vegas, Nevada - UFC Fight Pass
Tue 8/8		1101 Peter Petties		+205	o2½ -170
9:30PM		1102 Julio Arce		-245	u2½ +150
Dana White's Contender Series 5 - Flyweight 3 rounds - UFC Training Centre - Las Vegas, Nevada - UFC Fight Pass
Tue 8/8		1201 Kevin Gray		+150	o2½ -185
9:00PM		1202 Alex Perez		-170	u2½ +160
Dana White's Contender Series 5 - Bantamweight 3 rounds - UFC Training Centre - Las Vegas, Nevada - UFC Fight Pass
Tue 8/8		1301 Donavon Frelow		+250	o2½ -165
8:30PM		1302 Ricky Simon		-300	u2½ +145
Dana White's Contender Series 5 - Heavyweight 3 rounds - UFC Training Centre - Las Vegas, Nevada - UFC Fight Pass
Tue 8/8		1401 Shelton Graves		-105	o1½ +140
8:00PM		1402 Everett Sims		-115	u1½ -160

Ok thank you

[Shagdogy]

Not betting, but picking winners I like Simon and Rodriguez the most. Prob gonna parlay those guys up for -120. Simon is getting a little cheaper... if he somehow hits 3-1 I'll play him.