[THE_LOCKSMITH]

FS1, 10:00 pm ET
Sergio Pettis vs Brandon Moreno
Alexa Grasso vs Randa Markos
Alan Jouban vs Niko Price
Martin Bravo vs Humberto Bandenay
Sam Alvey vs Rashad Evans
Alejandro Perez vs Andre Soukhamthath

FS1, 8:00 pm ET
Jack Hermansson vs Bradley Scott
Dustin Ortiz vs Hector Sandoval
Henry Briones vs Rani Yahya
Jose Quinonez vs Diego Rivas

UFC Fight Pass 7:00 pm ET
Joseph Morales vs Roberto Sanchez
Alvaro Herrera vs Jordan Rinaldi

[firekillex]

whats everybodys thoughts on the main fight sergio/moreno

[Demonata]

Another card I'm not going to bet. Just watch and enjoy it.
Saving for ufc 215

[bjpenn85]

0 bet opportunities

[Hugo de Naranja]

Yeah doesn't seem like a great betting card but should be some fun matchups

[JerseyRobby]

Rashad Evans an underdog to Sam Alvey. The mighty have fallen.

[GunShard]

I notice after a great fight card comes a lack luster fight card.

[firekillex]

this thread is dry as helllllll
lets get some discussions going here

[Demonata]

Either Sergio Pettis or rashad Evans will win or both. Lock city

[Hugo de Naranja]

Either Sergio Pettis or rashad Evans will win or both. Lock city

Any analysis behind this?

[MadTiger]

0 bet opportunities

Throw a 0.1 unit on Niko Price for a sweat.

[Demonata]

Any analysis behind this?

I'm high and it feels right

[Rich Benjamins]

Markos might be a good one. She has a lot more experience facing tough competition than Grasso.

[JerseyRobby]

Markos might be a good one. She has a lot more experience facing tough competition than Grasso.

Be careful a Mexican fighting in Mexico city in a women's MMA match that will probably be close and go to the judges. That's a recipe for a hometown decision.

[GoBlue77]

Markos might be a good one. She has a lot more experience facing tough competition than Grasso.

i think grasso wins that one

[Hugo de Naranja]

i think grasso wins that one

I remember you did bet Ferrig as a (+250) or so dog against her. Why Grasso in this spot?

[turbozed]

I kinda like Grasso here too. Markos' has changed her striking up pretty significantly and it showed in her fight against Esparza. Whereas before she was flat footed and just planted herself in kicking range, she now incorporates some feints and lateral movement. She might be a little harder to hit, but her offensive output didn't get much better. Grasso seems to have a pretty big speed advantage. I expect her to be able to hop in and out and tag Markos pretty easily. Grasso will also have a cardio advantage. She's been in Mexico City for a couple of weeks now (to train at elevation), whereas Markos just arrived yesterday. Markos' new striking style is a bit energy inefficient so who knows how long she can last. Markos still works part time at a pharmacy.

Grasso has her weaknesses though. If you're throwing punches at her, she's goes tharn like a deer in the headlights. Doesn't seem to understand that you can counter someone punching you. She takes too long to reset and throw of her own after getting hit. That said, she has a pretty good chin. You have to think that with all the criticism that she got for being timid against Herrig, that she won't show up so lazy and timid, especially in front of a partisan crowd.

I don't think Markos is strong enough to keep Grasso against the cage and work her over there and it doesn't seem like Markos is planning on taking her down. Here's a recent interview with Markos. Pertinent part at 6 min mark

[PaperTrail07]

Tough event IMO....don't forget the cardio issues....

[PaperTrail07]

Price at + $$....Jouban could gas...get taken down?

[Hugo de Naranja]

I kinda like Grasso here too. Markos' has changed her striking up pretty significantly and it showed in her fight against Esparza. Whereas before she was flat footed and just planted herself in kicking range, she now incorporates some feints and lateral movement. She might be a little harder to hit, but her offensive output didn't get much better. Grasso seems to have a pretty big speed advantage. I expect her to be able to hop in and out and tag Markos pretty easily. Grasso will also have a cardio advantage. She's been in Mexico City for a couple of weeks now (to train at elevation), whereas Markos just arrived yesterday. Markos' new striking style is a bit energy inefficient so who knows how long she can last. Markos still works part time at a pharmacy.

Grasso has her weaknesses though. If you're throwing punches at her, she's goes tharn like a deer in the headlights. Doesn't seem to understand that you can counter someone punching you. She takes too long to reset and throw of her own after getting hit. That said, she has a pretty good chin. You have to think that with all the criticism that she got for being timid against Herrig, that she won't show up so lazy and timid, especially in front of a partisan crowd.

I don't think Markos is strong enough to keep Grasso against the cage and work her over there and it doesn't seem like Markos is planning on taking her down. Here's a recent interview with Markos. Pertinent part at 6 min mark

Excellent analysis as always Turbo. You're one of the best cappers on this forum imo.

[JIBBBY]

Moreno is really scrappy and game in fights, I give him a chance against Pettis..

[JIBBBY]

MMA Mania write ups coming in..



125 lbs.: Joseph Morales vs. Roberto Sanchez

Joseph Morales (8-0) — the latest young gun out of Team Alpha Male — made his amateur debut at 18 years young, racking up a 6-0-1 record before jumping to the pros in 2014. Seven wins and a regional title earned him a crack on Dana White’s “Lookin’ for a Fight,” which he made the most of with a comeback knockout of veteran Sean Santella.
At 22, he is more than eight years his opponent’s junior.
Roberto Sanchez (7-0) has spent the entirety of his 2.5-year professional career under the Legacy FC banner, ultimately fighting for the LFA title in June. Jerome Rivera’s undefeated record didn’t daunt him, as “Little Fury” picked up his sixth consecutive submission win and the promotion’s Flyweight belt.
He owns four wins by rear-naked choke and another two by armbar.
Morales has definitely got the goods. He’s slick as can be on the mat and showed some significant power against Santella. The key issue is defense — Santella cracked him good right off the bat and Josh Paiva, whom Morales won the aforementioned title against, took him down repeatedly before running afoul of his triangle series.
Sanchez looks to have somewhat stronger positional control and enough wrestling to get Morales on his back. If Morales is as content to play guard until a submission opportunity arises as he was against Paiva, expect Sanchez to spend enough time on top to eke out a decision.
Prediction: Sanchez via split decision

155 lbs.: Alvaro Herrera vs. Jordan Rinaldi

Alvaro Herrera (9-4) — representing Team Escudero — came up short in the quarterfinals of The Ultimate Fighter: “Latin America” 2, though he did manage to knock out semifinalist Vernon Ramos in thirty seconds in UFC itself. He faced a stiffer test his next time out in the surging Vicente Luque, falling by submission late in the second round.
He owns five wins by (technical) knockout and another three by submission.
After losing to Joe Proctor on TUF 15, Jordan Rinaldi (12-5) hit a 2-4 skid before putting together five straight wins. He stepped up on short notice to face Abel Trujillo at UFC Fight Night 88 and, though he withstood “Killa’s” punching power, lost by unanimous decision.
This will be his first fight in 14 months.
Herrera’s got some solid power, but not much else going for him. He gassed inside of a round against Luque, although that could have been due to Luque’s effective body kicks, and his takedown defense was woefully inadequate. I don’t expect that to change at Lightweight, especially with the aforementioned stamina issues.
Rinaldi can take a shot, grapples well and is quick enough on the feet to avoid Herrera’s big right hand. He mixes takedowns and strikes before ultimately tapping his fading foe late in the second.
Prediction: Rinaldi via second-round submission

[JIBBBY]

this thread is dry as helllllll
lets get some discussions going here

I was in no hurry to cap this event or even look at the thread.. I took a few days off after the last 2 UFC events that were basically a miss for me..

I had to hit the restart switch button ...Just starting to look at this event today...

[turbozed]

Excellent analysis as always Turbo. You're one of the best cappers on this forum imo.

Thanks man. I think most people here including me think you're the most valuable contributor on the board, so I appreciate it. I've learned a lot about hedging, odds, and bankroll management from your posts so thank you for that too.

On the Grasso fight I was actually looking to bet Markos at + odds but changed my mind after watching tape. -155 is a bit steep so I didn't end up betting Grasso big and there aren't any enticing props. It's a bit annoying spending an hour doing analysis and resisting putting action on a fight. How do you go about choosing your bet size, and how much should it vary based on confidence level? Is it just a gut feeling, or do you assign win percentages and compare that to the lines?

[JIBBBY]

Turbs is solid I agree..

[turbozed]

Actually, the one Grasso prop that looks good assuming Markos really hasn't been taking the elevation thing seriously is Grasso Rd 3 for +1850.

[Hugo de Naranja]

Moreno is really scrappy and game in fights, I give him a chance against Pettis..

I think he's got a chance but not sure he should be a (-170) favorite. I really like Moreno as a fighter and a person but Pettis seems like a much better roundwinner if he can avoid getting finished

[Hugo de Naranja]

Actually, the one Grasso prop that looks good assuming Markos really hasn't been taking the elevation thing seriously is Grasso Rd 3 for +1850.

Was thinking the exact same thing! Markos hasn't shown good cardio even in sea-level fights

[Hugo de Naranja]

Thanks man. I think most people here including me think you're the most valuable contributor on the board, so I appreciate it. I've learned a lot about hedging, odds, and bankroll management from your posts so thank you for that too.

On the Grasso fight I was actually looking to bet Markos at + odds but changed my mind after watching tape. -155 is a bit steep so I didn't end up betting Grasso big and there aren't any enticing props. It's a bit annoying spending an hour doing analysis and resisting putting action on a fight. How do you go about choosing your bet size, and how much should it vary based on confidence level? Is it just a gut feeling, or do you assign win percentages and compare that to the lines?

I definitely size bets based on confidence level. I try to list the six possible outcomes (KO, sub, decision for each fighter) in order of my perception of their likelihood and then make bets and hedges based off that.

[Demonata]

Moreno is really scrappy and game in fights, I give him a chance against Pettis..

You give the big favorite a chance against an underdog lol

[JIBBBY]

You give the big favorite a chance against an underdog lol

I thought it was older brother Anthony Pettis and didn't look at the odds closely my bad. Just posted really quick and I thought I saw Pettis as the favorite at -170 and thought it was Anthony... I just looked at this event today and didn't see it was Sergio.. Now I really like Moreno..

MY BAD!!!!!!!!!! I thought it was Anthony not Sergio... Kid brother is getting better but Anthony Pettis is much better..

I should not have posted that..... Brain fart... I should delete it but I'll leave it up... I'm just capping the fights now..

[Hugo de Naranja]

I thought it was older brother Anthony Pettis and didn't look at the odds closely my bad. Just posted really quick and I thought I saw Pettis as the favorite at -170 and thought it was Anthony... I just looked at this event today and didn't see it was Sergio.. Now I really like Moreno..

MY BAD!!!!!!!!!! I thought it was Anthony not Sergio... Kid brother is getting better but Anthony Pettis is much better..

I should not have posted that..... Brain fart... I should delete it but I'll leave it up... I'm just capping the fights now..

Why Moreno here? He's scrappy as hell but I think he needs a finish to win

[Demonata]

I think Pettis will win if it goes to decision

[JIBBBY]

Why Moreno here? He's scrappy as hell but I think he needs a finish to win

Moreno is on 11 fight win streak and has looked good in his fights.. I've been impressed, like I said he's scrappy as hell. I think he is the one that gets the finish in his fight..http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Brandon-Moreno-80173

Moreno has 4 finishes in his last 5 fights.. Sergio is improving quickly but is still beatable, he can be sub'd or KO'd in my opinion.. Hasn't faced tough comp yet either.. Moraga was his toughest opponent to date..

Maybe Sergio could win this by decision.. I might hedge it.. I still need to further cap this fight though before I make claims.. Like I said I just started capping these fights today..

[Hugo de Naranja]

Moreno is on 11 fight win streak and has looked good in his fights.. I've been impressed, like I said he's scrappy as hell. I think he is the one that gets the finish in his fight..http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Brandon-Moreno-80173

Moreno has 4 finishes in his last 5 fights.. Sergio is improving quickly but is still beatable, he can be sub'd or KO'd in my opinion.. Hasn't faced tough comp yet either.. Moraga was his toughest opponent to date..

Maybe Sergio could win this by decision.. I might hedge it.. I still need to further cap this fight though before I make claims.. Like I said I just started capping these fights today..

Moreno ITD or Sub and Pettis Decision seem like the most likely outcomes to me.