[THE_LOCKSMITH]

Pay Per View 10:00 pm ET
Daniel Cormier vs Jon Jones (for light heavyweight title)
Tyron Woodley vs Demian Maia (for welterweight title)
Cristiane Justino vs Tonya Evinger (for featherweight title)
Donald Cerrone vs Robbie Lawler
Jimi Manuwa vs Volkan Oezdemir

FXX, 8:00 pm ET
Jason Knight vs Ricardo Lamas
Renan Barao vs Aljamain Sterling
Renato Moicano vs Brain Ortega
Andre Fili vs Doo Ho Choi

UFC Fight Pass 6:00 pm ET
Jarred Brooks vs Eric Shelton
Alexandra Albu vs Kailin Curran
Josh Burkman vs Drew Dober
Dmitrii Smoliakov vs Adam Wieczorkowski

[rsynweap84]

Well Maia will probably be dead here, RIP...gonna roll w/ TyWood...

Really can't see how DC beats Jones, although the last time Jones fought after being suspended, he looked like crap against OSP...still gotta lean on Jones or skip that altogether.

Cyborg here, but fuk dat juice...pass

I love ma boy Jason Knight but everytime I have bet him small for big props he has been payin', and I end up kickin myself for not goin in bigger, this time we goin to bet the farm on it. Probably gonna be my biggest play for card.

[firekillex]

TWOOOOOD lets get it
i like jones but i dont love the odds here... i think DC has a bigger chance then people think at +240 i may throw something small
then hedge Jones decision , theyre so evenly matched i think it will go decision

Not on the Knight bandwagon yet, Lamas his toughest test by far and i will most likely take Lamas , hes getting old thats the only worry for me , but i think hes better then Knight overall

[JIBBBY]

All in on Jon Jones.. Max bet... DC can't beat him and won't beat him.. Just that simple.. JJ better in every area as he has the reach, cardio and youth on his side.. Repeat of the 1st match up... JJ unanimous or finishes DC this time around..

This is a great card!! I just hope fighters don't pull out due to injury leading up....

[firekillex]

the old Jon jones had every advantage... he looked terrible against OSP and he hasnt fought in a long time... also the steroid thing couldve been true... a few things to look into before doing any big bet on jones imo... DC is the 2nd best 205er in history and is extremely underrated because he lost to Jones once, guy has beat multiple legends , even i have underrated him but if you look at his resume without Jones hed be a P4P great already... This fight is going to be close whoever wins imo, if the old Jones comes back with some improvements hell win a decision 49-46 range imo , if he comes in like OSP or worse he could easily lose this fight

[JIBBBY]

DC is 38 years old and he isn't getting any better.. He'll be lucky not to get injured again leading up.. JJ show better against DC and that OSP fight was just a tune up.. He's in DC's head, he's confident and wants that belt back...

[Hugo de Naranja]

All in on Jon Jones.. Max bet... DC can't beat him and won't beat him.. Just that simple.. JJ better in every area as he has the reach, cardio and youth on his side.. Repeat of the 1st match up... JJ unanimous or finishes DC this time around..

This is a great card!! I just hope fighters don't pull out due to injury leading up....

If I remember correctly, weren't you on DC when they were scheduled to fight at UFC 197 and at UFC 200. Could easily be mis-remembering

[JIBBBY]

If I remember correctly, weren't you on DC when they were scheduled to fight at UFC 197 and at UFC 200. Could easily be mis-remembering

I was never on DC against JJ and never will be...

Only way DC wins is if JJ gets DQ'd for eye pokes



Until JJ loses for real in the octagon I will never bet against that guy... http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Jon-Jones-27944

[JIBBBY]

I'm gonna fade Demian Maia as well which I HATE TO DO!!! I never said I would do that as he is my favorite fighter.. Twood is a nightmare match up for DM.. My heart tells me atleast hedge with the DM sub, but my bank account tells me not too..

T-Wood is gonna drop Maia, or Maia will just be on his back begging for T-wood to jump into his guard every time he gets clipped.. Either way this is gonna be a nightmare for Maia I believe.. .. My boy should get dropped.. The title he will never touch unfortunately...

If he would have fought Wonder Boy for the title I'd bet him, but not T-wood..

[firekillex]

eye pokes are a big part of Jones game leading his hand out the way he does , potentially coming off steroids and a long layoff plus all the stress about him coming back and being the P4P king, i think hes not in DCs head at all this time imo... DC been more active, has been steadily improving his striking game and knows all the things Jones is going through the more i think about it the more i like DC at +240 range he definitely has a shot id say 60/40 Jones ... Jones all day in his prime and fighting actively but you cant just say OSP was a tune up fight hes been off another year + since , everything is against Jones here... Guy has the most skills by far but mentally he could be coming in struggling , especially if Cormier comes out fast and steals the first round or 2 , Jones hasnt been finishing guys lately which could hurt him


Twood by destruction against Maia though... Hopefully gets GSP next

[JIBBBY]

^^ Jones at 29 years old is probably in his MMA prime right now.. DC is gonna get smoked...

[firekillex]

^^ Jones at 29 years old is probably in his MMA prime right now.. DC is gonna get smoked...

age wise hes in his prime , but do you think a jones coming off another year idle and potentially coming off steroids will be the best primed jon jones weve ever seen???? As a fan i hope Jones breaks out in this fight and becomes what he truly could be potential wise and win the HW championship , but all the questions are a big risk here especially at -220 or more

[JIBBBY]

age wise hes in his prime , but do you think a jones coming off another year idle and potentially coming off steroids will be the best primed jon jones weve ever seen???? As a fan i hope Jones breaks out in this fight and becomes what he truly could be potential wise and win the HW championship , but all the questions are a big risk here especially at -220 or more

JJ was the champ and knows how to train to become the champion again.. I'm sure JJ has training his ass off for this fight and dialed in for the belt.. His sparring partners are sure feeling it.. Getting KO'd with straight jabs.. He appears to be in great shape right now also from what I've seen.. He'll bring it!!!!

[firekillex]

sparring and fighting in the biggest card of 2017 against another P4P great is night and day, ring rust is a real thing in the first couple rounds... looking at it objectively Jones has more advantages physically and skill wise but he has question marks coming into this fight... id like to see Jones win and live up to his potential but by FAR this will be his biggest test yet imo

[JIBBBY]

sparring and fighting in the biggest card of 2017 against another P4P great is night and day, ring rust is a real thing in the first couple rounds... looking at it objectively Jones has more advantages physically and skill wise but he has question marks coming into this fight... id like to see Jones win and live up to his potential but by FAR this will be his biggest test yet imo

Fire let's just say I warned ya.. Good luck with betting DC but I think that money will burn up into ashes for ya.. If I'm wrong I'll be the first to congrats ya..

[firekillex]

probably goin DC split/majority +1100 small i see value in that prop with Jones Submission +550
regardless wont give big on this fight way to many question marks in this matchup for me

[Hugo de Naranja]

I was never on DC against JJ and never will be...

Only way DC wins is if JJ gets DQ'd for eye pokes



Until JJ loses for real in the octagon I will never bet against that guy... http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Jon-Jones-27944

Must have been remembering a post where you played Devil's Advocate. I feel the same way about Jones. Let's get it boss

[JIBBBY]

^ Hugo there may have been a chance I was on DC in that first fight but I'd like to think I was not.. I honestly don't remember for sure???.. I know after that fight I was convinced DC would never beat JJ and that still holds true to this day.. It's been a long time since that first fight.... If I get bored I'll check that old thread and see who my money was on and bump it just for you..

I believe I was on JJ even in that first fight though. I will get around to it and double check when I have the time tomorrow.. If your memory is that good and I am wrong I'll be impressed.. I'll check it tomorrow and use the search history on SBR and bump that original DC/JJ fight thread..

If someone beats me to it I give you 10 bet points for your trouble...

[Hugo de Naranja]

eye pokes are a big part of Jones game leading his hand out the way he does , potentially coming off steroids and a long layoff plus all the stress about him coming back and being the P4P king, i think hes not in DCs head at all this time imo... DC been more active, has been steadily improving his striking game and knows all the things Jones is going through the more i think about it the more i like DC at +240 range he definitely has a shot id say 60/40 Jones ... Jones all day in his prime and fighting actively but you cant just say OSP was a tune up fight hes been off another year + since , everything is against Jones here... Guy has the most skills by far but mentally he could be coming in struggling , especially if Cormier comes out fast and steals the first round or 2 , Jones hasnt been finishing guys lately which could hurt him


Twood by destruction against Maia though... Hopefully gets GSP next

I missed the Under 2.5 (+100) for the WW title scrap. Been bet all the way down to (-150).

[Hugo de Naranja]

JJ was the champ and knows how to train to become the champion again.. I'm sure JJ has training his ass off for this fight and dialed in for the belt.. His sparring partners are sure feeling it.. Getting KO'd with straight jabs.. He appears to be in great shape right now also from what I've seen.. He'll bring it!!!!

Did they get the bongo player from the local reggae band to come spar Jones?

[Hugo de Naranja]

probably goin DC split/majority +1100 small i see value in that prop with Jones Submission +550
regardless wont give big on this fight way to many question marks in this matchup for me

I like both bets. Already on Jones Submission (+790) for a full unit

[Hugo de Naranja]

^ Hugo there may have been a chance I was on DC in that first fight but I'd like to think I was not.. I honestly don't remember for sure???.. I know after that fight I was convinced DC would never beat JJ and that still holds true to this day.. It's been a long time since that first fight.... If I get bored I'll check that old thread and see who my money was on and bump it just for you..

I believe I was on JJ even in that first fight though. I will get around to it and double check when I have the time tomorrow.. If your memory is that good and I am wrong I'll be impressed.. I'll check it tomorrow and use the search history on SBR and bump that original DC/JJ fight thread..

If someone beats me to it I give you 10 bet points for your trouble...

Sounds good. You're probably right.

[JIBBBY]

Did they get the bongo player from the local reggae band to come spar Jones?

Right nice dreads... .. I don't think they'd throw in a total can to spare with Jones but maybe he was.. Who frigg'n knows as I don't know who that guy was??? That was a stiff jab he took, surprised he didn't have head gear on either..

[getlucky2win]

That footage is from many years ago and that guy is a bum

[firekillex]

I missed the Under 2.5 (+100) for the WW title scrap. Been bet all the way down to (-150).

I like that bet a lot to ... good find

[JIBBBY]

^^If Maia just tries to survive and constantly lays on his back every time he gets touched it could go over.. Most likely won't though and I agree the Under 2.5 and at even odds when it first came out was a good grab....

[turbozed]

Not liking Jason Knight's chances against Lamas. Kid's still got gaping holes in his game. On the ground, he's active off his back, but not enough to counter stifling top control guys like Kawajiri. That was a year and a half ago and on short notice, but fight would've probably looked the same if he had months to prepare. Lamas won't be able to control him probably as securely, but advantage on the ground to Lamas as long as he's spent any time at all learning counters to rubber guard (as most guys seem to have by now).

On the feet, Knight does his best work against stationary guys. Against lateral movement, he'll overextend and is hittable or vulnerable to a takedown. In the Caceres and Hooker fights, he was the one getting frustrated and initiating grappling exchanges. His front leg is also heavy and kickable. Not sure why he was the favorite at opening and think line could be a bit wider as Lamas as the favorite.

I don't want to bet against a fun action fighter like Knight but he's going to have to show more than we've seen to win. Not sure how his activity may help or hinder him either. This will be his 5th fight in a little over a year.

PS, what's the deal with his blacked out back tattoo? Nevermind, found my answer. Was ugly before. Good idea to change it up. Looks much better now:

[GoBlue77]

I hate DC's guts. Guy is a straight coward, he talked so much trash in the first fight and it barely looked like he even tried. Fat and out of shape. I was on Jones first time. I'd actually take DC here but I honestly hate that guy too much to bet on him and root for him. That fight is a stay away from me.

Early leans Lamas, Sterling, Woodley.

[firekillex]

the more i look into it the more im starting to like Lawler.... Cowboy has never really dealt well with heavy pressure fighters
and Lalwer is exactly that, only concern here is the long layoff but Lawer has shown to always be game unless hes really fallen off i think he can get a solid W here -140 arent bad odds either

[bjpenn85]

Woodley, moicano.

How the hell does a fighter who arguable lost to brandao, guida and taveres 2 out of 3 rounds, beat a guy that beat jeremy stephans and tukhugov over three rounds?

He needs the sub, and i cant see how he will get it if moicano fight smarts. The price is -130. Bizarre. Maybe im overlooking things but this can end up being 30-27 if T-city doesnt hit a hail mary romero finish in round 3 for the 4th time in a row.

Lawler should win, but as you said layoff are a concern, but the guy that beat hendricks and was climbing the ranks a couple of years ago would steamroll cerrone, no doubt.

[JIBBBY]

This got next... Let the capping begin!!!!

The one thing I know for sure is I will be changing my Avatar picture one way or the other after the Demain Maia fight ..

[firekillex]

aljo sterling vs renan barao.... solid scrap
if baraos weight cut goes well i think hes a solid underdog here

[Ty$]

aljo sterling vs renan barao.... solid scrap
if baraos weight cut goes well i think hes a solid underdog here

Yessir ... parlay w Knight solid bet ... I did ok card called Elkins and Cummings but lost big on Gastelum. So small loss. I'm jus trying to cap the fights wo too much outsider influence. Wow the dogs were barking hard last card nice to see!

[richie360]

Got to go with DC, especially at the odds. Way to many factors going against Jones. One of my main concerns is that he could easily suffer a massive adrenaline dump. Out for so long and all the pressure of the build up, inactivity, personal problems. Lot of people questioning DCs cardio, all ways thought he was a grinder when the going got tough. I would be more concerned with Jones cardio.

[Wohlford]

I don't understand how Cormier is backable here:

1. Age and size handicaps.

2. We've seen this fight before, and it strengthens the Jones case.

3. Recent trends: Cormier is 38 and hasn't fought impressively since October 2015 (Gustafsson). Since then, he looked like dogshit against Anderson Silva (almost got finished by a body kick) and, though he beat Anthony Johnson, I will always heavily discount a win over a fighter who announces his retirement in the cage after a loss. Johnson--a pretty heartless fighter to begin with--really didn't have much fight in him that night. Easy work for Cormier. Not a test. [On the other hand, Jones' April 2016 victory over OSP was unimpressive (and even more so after OSP's subsequent performance against Manuwa). However, this fight was still 1,000 times better than Cormier's victory over Anderson Silva.]

4. Value. In Jones-Cormier 1, Cormier closed as an underdog in the +180 range. Getting an already-beaten, 38 year-old Cormier at +230 is no bargain.


Edit: In addition to the above, Cormier missing weight by a big margin at UFC 210 is concerning. Is Cormier's training slacking? Too much time working for Fox? Is Father Time already taking his toll on the scales? How hard will Cormier's next cut be?