MMA mania predictions...
145 lbs.: Ricardo Lamas vs. Jason Knight
Ricardo Lamas (17-5) rebounded from his knockout loss to Chad Mendes with a sound thrashing of Diego Sanchez, only to fall short against future champion Max Holloway in a terrific scrap. “The Bully” returned to action five months later against Charles Oliveira and, despite “Do Bronx” coming in a full weight class overweight, submitted the Brazilian to earn “Performance of the Night.”
He will give up two inches of height to the 5’10” Jason Knight (18-2).
Knight’s lethal guard carried him to eight consecutive victories, including an upset submission of prospect Musa Khamanaev, but wasn’t enough against Tatsuya Kawajiri’s legendary top game in his UFC debut. He then reinvented himself as a pressure fighter and has looked terrific, winning four straight and earning three post-fight bonuses along the way.
He replaces the injured Chan Sung Jung on less than two months’ notice.
Honestly, there are a lot of ways this fight could go. Lamas is a skilled enough striker and stout enough wrestler to keep it standing and win on the counter, but he does have some lapses in fight IQ and will be facing a man in Knight who simply refuses to wilt in the face of adversity. Nevertheless, it’s a fight that ought to be terrific no matter how it turns out.
While I’ve underestimated Knight before, I’m giving this to Lamas. He’s got powerful leg kicks that Knight’s relentless advance leaves him vulnerable to and experience against some of the best the Featherweight division has to offer. Lamas is tough enough to stay in there and give as good as he takes, so expect him to scrape out a narrow decision victory.
Prediction: Lamas via split decision
140 lbs.: Aljamain Sterling vs. Renan Barao
Four consecutive wins, capped off by a brutal guillotine of Johnny Eduardo, put Aljamain Sterling (13-2) within spitting distance of a Bantamweight title shot. Split decision losses to Bryan Caraway and Raphael Assuncao slowed his roll, but “The Funk Master” re-entered the win column in April with a decision over Augusto Mendes.
Six of his eight stoppage wins have come via choke.
It’s been three years since T.J. Dillashaw tore the Bantamweight title from Renan Barao’s (34-4) grip and kicked off a 1-3 run. He managed to earn his first UFC Featherweight victory last September with a decision over Phillipe Nover in Brasilia. This fight was originally set to take place at 135, but California State Athletic Commission (CSAC) refused to allow Barao to make the weight cut after his earlier difficulties.
Sterling’s punches aren’t the cringeworthy windmills they were early in his UFC career, but he’s still infinitely less effective when he can’t get the takedown. Unfortunately, that’s the situation he faces on Saturday — while Barao’s game has yet to evolve sufficiently, he’s still got ridiculous takedown defense. Dillashaw concussed the guy and still couldn’t keep him down.
On the feet, Barao’s jab and low kicks are enough to dictate the pace. Expect a slightly more exciting version of Sterling’s fight with Assuncao as the former champ shuts down Sterling’s wrestling and lands just enough to edge the decision.
Prediction: Barao via unanimous decision
145 lbs.: Renato Moicano vs. Brian Ortega
Renato Moicano (11-0-1) made a strong first impression in UFC with a submission win over Tom Niinimaki, but injuries have kept him to just two fights since that Dec. 2014 victory. He edged fellow prospect Zubaira Tukhugov in May 2016, then used takedowns and top control to scrape past Jeremy Stephens in April.
He has three inches each of height, reach and leg reach on Brian Ortega (11-0).
A failed drug test eliminated the 99-second UFC debut victory for “T-City” over Mike De La Torre and kept him out of action for nearly a full year. Three consecutive finishes have put him back in fans’ good graces, however, including a brutal knee knockout of Clay Guida at UFC 199.
This will be his first fight in 13 months.
Ortega has spurts of brilliance, but if I recall correctly, he was losing all three of those fights before picking up late stoppages. While terrific on the mat, Ortega’s only a middling striker and hasn’t shown outstanding wrestling, forcing him to wait for opponents to give openings rather than making them himself.
If Moicano can make full use of his length advantage, he should be able to win comfortably. He’s sharper than Ortega at range, is a more proven takedown artist, and has the submission defense to stifle Ortega’s guard. The Brazilian may not earn fans, but he will get the win, potshotting Ortega with straight punches and mixing in takedowns to earn the decision
Prediction: Moicano by unanimous decision
145 lbs.: Andre Fili vs. Calvin Kattar
Andre Fili (16-4) — despite some strong performances — has struggled to find consistency in UFC, alternating wins and losses since joining the organization in 2013. After being on the wrong end of one of 2016’s “
Knockouts of the Year,” he faced Nova Uniao grinder Hacran Dias and took home the decision win in a mild upset.
Eight of his 16 wins, including two of his four UFC victories, have come by form of knockout.
Calvin Kattar (16-2) earned the nickname “The Boston Finisher” with stoppages in his first nine wins, including eight in the first round. He hasn’t scored a finish since 2010, but enters Saturday’s fight having won eight straight.
He replaces the injured Doo Ho Choi on less than two weeks’ notice.
I can’t find any non-highlight footage of Kattar since his win over Saul Almeida in 2012, so this is far from scientific, but I do think Fili gets the win here. “Touchy’s” takedown defense and scrambles have improved considerably, allowing him to unleash his potent striking arsenal with more impunity, and it’s unlikely Kattar has had enough time to prepare for the diverse array of punches and kicks coming his way.
Fili’s been matched tough throughout his UFC career, but I still think he has the talent to at least breach the Top 15. He embarks on his first UFC win streak with an early knockout.
Prediction: Fili via first-round technical knockout
115 lbs.: Kailin Curran vs. Aleksandra Albu (2-0)
Kailin Curran (4-4) — who welcomed Paige VanZant to the Octagon in 2014 — enters Saturday’s bout just 1-4 in the world’s largest fighting promotion. She snapped a two-fight losing streak in 2015 with a submission of Emily Kagan, but embarked on another such streak thanks to Felice Herrig and Jamie Moyle.
She stands an inch taller than Aleksandra Albu (2-0) at 5’4.”
“Stitch” finally made her first UFC appearance almost two years after she was initially signed, taking on Izabela Badurek in the latter’s native Poland. Despite a close first round, she managed to come up big with a guillotine finish in the second.
This will be her first fight in 27 months.
I’m not sure what Curran’s issue is, but she should be doing better than this. It’s hard to have confidence in her, even when her opponent hasn’t fought in more than two years. In addition to solid movement and boxing, Albu has a good grasp of framing and underhooks to deny takedowns. She’s a bit vulnerable to being pressed against the cage for long stretches, but so is Curran, who also looks to be the more hittable of the two. Unless Curran can hit consistent takedowns or keep her pinned to the cage for minutes at a time, Albu outlands her for the decision.
Prediction: Albu via unanimous decision
125 lbs.: Eric Shelton vs. Jarred Brooks (12-0)
Ranked No. 15 on The Ultimate Fighter TUF) 24, Eric Shelton (10-3) upset No. 2-ranked Yoni Sherbatov on the Round of 16 and went all the way to the semifinals before falling to Tim Elliott by narrow decision. He went on to face No. 1-ranked Alexandre Pantoja at UFC on FOX 23 and, once again, came up just barely short in the second split decision loss of his professional career.
Half of his professional wins have come by submission.
Jarred Brooks (12-0) entered MMA with a top-notch wrestling pedigree and immediately put it to good use, fighting and winning everywhere from Strawweight to Bantamweight. He stepped up on short notice to face Ian McCall at UFC 208, but “Uncle Creepy’s” eleventh-hour illness delayed Brooks’ debut until this Saturday.
“The Monkey God” will give up three inches of height and an inch of reach to Shelton.
Anyone who hasn’t seen Brooks fight is in for a treat. He pushes an absurd pace, winging power hooks until he can close the distance for a huge takedown, and he’s a quality scrambler on top of that. He does have two key issues, though, chief among them: Size. He can fight comfortably at 115 pounds and did so in his most recent fight.
The other, which could cost him dearly, is his lack of defense. He has a habit of pushing forward so hard with his strikes that he gets off-balance and Shelton proved in his last fight that he can deliver power shots on the retreat. I do think Brooks will give him problems and maybe hit a few eye-catching slams, but Shelton’s own wrestling and counters should carry him to a narrow win.
Prediction: Shelton via unanimous decision
155 lbs.: Josh Burkman vs. Drew Dober
Josh Burkman’s (28-15) vicious guillotine of Jon Fitch, part of a 6-1 run that included wins over three additional UFC veterans, resulted in his return to the Octagon after more than six years away. The homecoming hasn’t been a productive one, however, as he’s gone just 1-5 (1 NC) in his last run.
He is eight years older than Drew Dober (17-8), but debuted only three years earlier.
An up-and-down start to his UFC career, which included an upset submission of Jamie Varner and one of the worst stoppages in UFC history against Leandro Silva, finally gave way to two consecutive wins in 2016. He couldn’t quite finish the year unbeaten, however, suffering his second-ever submission loss to Olivier Aubin-Mercier in Toronto.
Nine of his professional wins have come by submission, though several were to strikes.
Burkman has not looked good in a fight in more than three years. He had a couple decent rounds against Patrick Cote before getting obliterated with a right hand and beat a faded K.J. Noons, sure, but he didn’t look good doing so. There has not been a single point in Burkman’s current UFC run where I thought, “Man, I’m glad Josh Burkman is back in UFC — he’s making a real impact!”
While Dober may never crack the division elite, he’s a solid striker and competent wrestler, which ought to be plenty considering how ineffective Burkman has looked in both departments. He wins enough striking exchanges to earn the decision.
Prediction: Dober via unanimous decision
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Originally Posted by turbozed
Ricardo 
Jason 
Volkan 
..
Aljamain 
Renan 
