[PaperTrail07]

Yup BTP football contest in entertaining...

go PRO, it's worth it and then you can also have access to SBR store. Contest season is coming up too so perfect time.

[turbozed]

Good point.. Is Weidman just a one or two round fighter these days? Not unthinkable to consider...

Given his last three fights, the wheels seem to come off his game around halfway into the 2nd round.

[JIBBBY]

Given his last three fights, the wheels seem to come off his game around halfway into the 2nd round.

Well you know Gas is one durable fighter that is extremely hard to finish..

Facts don't lie, Gas has never been stopped or even rocked that I remember in any of his past fights.. http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Kelvin-Gastelum-74700

So it's not likely CW is going to stop him.. Maybe Gas is the call in this fight, maybe even gets the stoppage late?? Tough fight to call...

Remember this is a 5 rounder as well... Got these props to consider...

1009 Gastelum wins inside distance

+140

1041 Gastelum wins by TKO/KO

+195

Sat 7/22		1029 Gastelum wins in round 3		+725
11:00PM		1030 Any other result		-1545
Sat 7/22		1031 Gastelum wins in round 4		+1025
11:00PM		1032 Any other result		-2075
Sat 7/22		1033 Gastelum wins in round 5		+1875
11:00PM		1034 Any other result		-5625

1060 Gastelum (scorecards = no action)

-220

[JIBBBY]

Gas did get dropped once but that was against horror story.. This may have been more of an off balance slip as well.. I don't believe he was rocked either..

[Hugo de Naranja]

I also thought Weidman was mentally weak and broken after that Rockhold fight but he really had some fight in him against Romero so I do think he is back to being mentally strong again.. He got mounted and pounded out by Rockhold.. He didn't allow that to happen against Romero until he caught the knee..

Mental toughness and grit still has to go to Gas though.. Gas is a tough dude with a granite chin like you said..

Weidman will be jacked and fired up fighting in Jersey one would think also in this bout.. Tough fight to call IMO.. I also think Weidman has a better submission game and wrestling when compared to Gas when fresh. I don't think that's an even playing field... Standing flip a coin.. Maybe Gas because he'll be more active, but Weidman is solid standing, has good boxing fundamentals and doesn't get punked or dropped very easily when boxing it out.

This is a good fight to check, I'm looking forward to it!!!

I don't think the fact that the fight is in New York (Long Island rather than Jersey) will matter. Weidman's last two fights where in New York State and he was finished in both (UFC 205 and 209).

Definitely agree that Weidman has better wrestling and underrated BJJ. He has taken down every single UFC opponent and has only been taken down by Romero and Rockhold. He has a handful of submissions and his record and has a really good front headlock series (D'Arce Chokes, Anacondas etc.). Gastelum uses offensive wrestling much less and only defends TDs at a 63% clip.

Standing I don't think you can flip a coin at all. Gastelum has way more consistent volume boxing that he can use over five rounds. He has a good gastank and a better chin as well as better defense. The way I see it, Weidman has a wrestling and grappling advantage while Gastelum has advantages in durability, cardio, and striking.

[Demonata]

I like Weidman a lot in this fight and current price us a steal.He needs to get a win and he's a good enough fighter to do so, his losing streak is tough and could have won all those. He's fighting in front of a crowd cheering for him he has to be pumped up. He's the better wrestler if he gets takedowns and doesn't get knocked out he wins. He was able to get Romero who's a a freak and quick athlete. I think he will get multiple takedowns and hold gastelum on the ground. Go Weidman. I also like Patrick Cummings.

[Hugo de Naranja]

I like Weidman a lot in this fight and current price us a steal.He needs to get a win and he's a good enough fighter to do so, his losing streak is tough and could have won all those. He's fighting in front of a crowd cheering for him he has to be pumped up. He's the better wrestler if he gets takedowns and doesn't get knocked out he wins. He was able to get Romero who's a a freak and quick athlete. I think he will get multiple takedowns and hold gastelum on the ground. Go Weidman. I also like Patrick Cummings.

Although I agree Weidman is the better wrestler, I don't think he has the top control game to keep Gastelum down. Unlike someone like Jacare who just needs 1 TD to control a round, Weidman may need to get multiple TDs per round to win them. As the fight goes on, this becomes less and less likely as TDs take lots of energy and Weidman isn't known for having great cardio.

[turbozed]

Can anyone here recommend a betting tracking spreadsheet? I found one here http://www.aussportsbetting.com/tool...cel-worksheet/ and it looks pretty decent, but I'd like something that calculates implied odds based on line and also somewhere that tracks confidence levels and a few more metrics.

[Shagdogy]

Can anyone here recommend a betting tracking spreadsheet? I found one here http://www.aussportsbetting.com/tool...cel-worksheet/ and it looks pretty decent, but I'd like something that calculates implied odds based on line and also somewhere that tracks confidence levels and a few more metrics.

I just track my own plays. All bets get recorded here, and all fights capped regardless if I play it, with a write up, prediction, and my personal line for the fight. I keep that in google docs and organize it by fight card. When setting my own line I usually say one fighter wins X out of 10 times and then convert that to American odds using a calculator. I try to set my own line before looking at the posted lines so I don't influence myself, but it's hard to get to all fights ahead of time.

[JIBBBY]

I don't think the fact that the fight is in New York (Long Island rather than Jersey) will matter. Weidman's last two fights where in New York State and he was finished in both (UFC 205 and 209).

Definitely agree that Weidman has better wrestling and underrated BJJ. He has taken down every single UFC opponent and has only been taken down by Romero and Rockhold. He has a handful of submissions and his record and has a really good front headlock series (D'Arce Chokes, Anacondas etc.). Gastelum uses offensive wrestling much less and only defends TDs at a 63% clip.

Standing I don't think you can flip a coin at all. Gastelum has way more consistent volume boxing that he can use over five rounds. He has a good gastank and a better chin as well as better defense. The way I see it, Weidman has a wrestling and grappling advantage while Gastelum has advantages in durability, cardio, and striking.

Can't argue this logic..

Only thing I disagree with is that CW has been in with some great strikers over the years and held his own.. Arguably better strikers then Gas.. He also beat Machida in a 5 round decision 3 years ago.. If he can regain his old form he might even win this fight by decision. Big if though???.. He does own Anderson Silva whom may be the best striker ever to enter the Octagon......http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Chris-Weidman-42804

[plekz]

Weidman is 33 with a multitude of injuries on him, including back and neck ones. Pretty sure he's intelligent enough to realize him becoming champ again is unlikely, considering he's on 3 L's in a row (all finishes) and he took A TON of punishment from Luke, knee he caught from Romero is pretty much a guaranteed concussion aswell and the knee he hate from Mous wasn't pretty either.

I think he's done with knees and back being close to shot.

[JIBBBY]

MMAMania parts 1 and 2 -




145 lbs.: Kyle Bochniak (7-1) vs. Jeremy Kennedy (10-0)

Bochniak stepped up on short notice to face Charles Rosa in Boston and, despite a strong start, ultimately lost a competitive unanimous decision to the local favorite. Seven months later, he returned to the cage to win a narrow split decision over Ultimate Fighter: Latin America 2 winner Enrique Barzola in Vancouver. This will be his first fight in almost eleven months.
24-year-old Kennedy first entered the Octagon in August of 2016, where he took a clinch-heavy decision over late replacement Alex Ricci. Returning to featherweight, he took on Ultimate Fighter: Brazil winner Rony “Jason” and used a quality takedown game to win a unanimous decision. He stands four inches taller than Bochniak at 5’11”.
Bochniak should be winless in the UFC. He’s aggressive and has decent power, but appears to have issues with the sort of grappling Kennedy brings to the table. He’s not a big enough hitter to end things on the feet, either, nor the footwork to keep his back off the cage.
In short, he just doesn’t have the tools to make “JBC” uncomfortable. Kennedy utilizes regular takedowns to earn his third UFC victory.
Prediction: Kennedy by unanimous decision

135 lbs.: Brian Kelleher (17-7) vs. Marlon Vera (11-3-1)

Despite a six-fight winning streak and a submission over the previously unbeaten Julio Arce on his résumé, Kelleher stepped into the Octagon last month as a +300 underdog against Iuri Alcântara. He defied the odds with a stunning first-round guillotine, earning Performance of the Night and becoming the first man to stop “Marajó” since 2009. He will give up two inches of height and four inches of reach to the 5’8” “Chito.”
Vera, an early favorite on the inaugural Ultimate Fighter: Latin America, was forced out due to a skin infection and lost a decision to Marco Antonio Beltran at UFC 180. He’s since won three of four, including bonus-winning victories over Roman Salazar (triangle choke) and Brad Pickett (head kick). He owns five pro wins by submission and another two by (T)KO.
Vera is still a collection of solid facets struggling to coalesce. The key to his ongoing issues is the wrestling defense; he’s good off his back, but nowhere near enough to threaten quality wrestlers. His height and length haven’t translated to an overpowering striking attack, either.
Kelleher has never been stopped by strikes and hasn’t been submitted in three years. Strong takedowns and stout submission defense carry him past Vera.
Prediction: Kelleher by unanimous decision

265 lbs.: Timothy Johnson (11-3) vs. Júnior Albini (13-2)

Johnson, who opened his UFC career with an impressive ground-and-pound stoppage of Shamil Abdurakhimov, has alternated wins and losses during his two-year Octagon tenure. His sole fight of 2017 saw him take on Polish striker Daniel Omielanczuk, whose stout takedown defense Johnson struggled to overcome on his way to a split decision victory. All nine of his stoppage wins have come inside of two rounds.
Albini put consecutive submission losses behind him to rattle off nine straight wins, seven of them by stoppage and five in the first round. Though he missed all of 2015, he earned and defended the Aspera FC heavyweight title during his three-fight 2016 campaign. This will be his first fight since last August.
I honestly don’t see the logic here. The UFC has in Albini a young, reasonably entertaining heavyweight prospect, which are worth their weight in gold these days. The first thing they decided to do with this untested acquisition is put him in a fight he’ll likely lose against a man notorious for unwatchable fights.
Beating Johnson requires either using good footwork to stay off the fence or a superior wrestling game to put him on his back. Albini, as far as I can tell, has neither. Unless he can somehow crack that mighty moustache with a right hand or one of the knees he’s fond of, expect Albini to spend most of the fight with his back on either the fence or the mat en route to his first decision loss.
Prediction: Johnson by unanimous decision

145 lbs.: Shane Burgos (9-0) vs. Godofredo Pepey (13-4)

“Hurricane” Shane stepped into his UFC debut with five first-round finishes under his belt, but had to settle for a decision against Tiago dos Santos in his debut slugfest. Undaunted, he returned to his finishing ways in a Fight of the Night-winning brawl against Charles Rosa at UFC 210, the fourth knockout and eighth overall stoppage of his professional career. He will have four inches of height and two inches of reach on Pepey.
Despite a loss to Rony “Jason” in the finals of the inaugural Ultimate Fighter: Brazil, Pepey has carved out a place for himself as one of the featherweight division’s most entertaining submission artists. He currently finds himself on a 4-1 run that includes three “Performance of the Night” awards, one of them a flying knee knockout of Noad Lahat in 2014. He has submitted nine opponents, one via strikes, and knocked out another three.
Generally speaking, Pepey either wins big or loses big. There have been maybe two exceptions since his debut loss to “Jason.” This won’t be the third, but Pepey might wish it was.
Burgos’ power, physical strength, and takedown defense make him a nightmare matchup for Pepey, whose takedowns have always been iffy and whose freeform striking leaves him open to the bone-crunching counters Burgos is so fond of.
The Brazilian is always good for an out-of-nowhere submission, but Burgos won’t give him time to find one. “Hurricane” storms through him in under a round.
Prediction: Burgos by first-round knockout

155 lbs.: Frankie Perez (10-3) vs. Chris Wade (11-3)

Perez, a protégé of grappling great Ricardo Almeida, scored a bonus-winning knockout of Sam Stout before announcing his retirement from the sport. He just couldn’t stay away, however, and returned fifteen months later to lose a decision to Marc Diakiese in Albany. This will be his second fight with Wade, who defeated Perez by split decision in 2014.
Wade joined the world’s largest fighting organization with the Ring of Combat lightweight title around his waist and promptly rattled off four consecutive victories. He currently finds himself on a two-fight losing streak, having fallen to Dagestani wrestling masters Rustam Khabilov and Islam Makhachev in 2016. He will give up an inch of height and three inches of reach to Perez.
Even considering Wade’s recent struggles, I’m leaning his way. Khabilov and Makhachev were always going to be tough style matchups and Perez, though adept on the ground, is nowhere near that caliber of takedown artist. Even if Perez does manage to get the better of him on the feet, it won’t matter much when Wade can drag him down as needed.
Wade may never get past the bruising wrestlers lurking in the lightweight division’s Top 15, but Perez is the sort of fighter against whom he can keep the gate. Wade controls the striking and grappling on his way to a decision win.

Prediction: Wade by unanimous decision


170 lbs.: Lyman Good (19-3) vs. Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos (16-5)
Good, Bellator’s inaugural welterweight champion, came up short in his first bid for UFC glory on The Ultimate Fighter 19, falling to Ian Stephens in the elimination round. He went on to earn the CFFC welterweight title and, when Edgar Garcia pulled out with an injury, stepped up on short notice to knock out Andrew Craig at UFC Fight Night 71. This will be his first fight in two years thanks to an injury and a subsequent failed drug test.
Former Jungle Fight champion Zaleski has been pure excitement thus far in his 2-1 UFC career. After a close loss to Nicolas Dalby in his promotional debut, he scored a comeback knockout of Omari Akhmedov and edged out veteran Keita Nakamura in a pair of entertaining showdowns. Twelve of his sixteen professional victories have come by form of knockout.
“Capoeira” Zaleski doesn’t know how to be in a bad fight, but he faces an uphill battle here. The Brazilian’s hands don’t have anywhere near the polish of his kicks and, though crafty on the mat, any transition between the feet and the mat is going to be done on Good’s terms. “Cyborg,” in addition to being a physical specimen, has an iron chin and the sort of tight boxing that Zaleski’s angry swings will struggle badly with.
The big question mark is Good’s layoff, especially since Zaleski gets stronger as the fight goes. Still, cardio hasn’t been an issue for Good in the past and I have faith in his hands. He turns aside a late surge to win a decision.
Prediction: Good by unanimous decision

185 lbs.: Rafael Natal (21-8-1) vs. Eryk Anders (9-0)

Four consecutive wins, including an upset split decision over Uriah Hall in which he was around a +300 underdog, earned “Sapo” the #13 spot in the middleweight rankings. He was not long for the top 15, however, and lost a decision to Robert Whittaker before suffering a one-punch knockout loss to Tim Boetsch. He owns eight wins by submission, though just one since 2010.
A former linebacker for the Alabama Crimson Tide, Anders had his first amateur bout in 2012 and racked up a 5-1-1 record before moving to the pros in 2015. Four consecutive first-round stoppage wins earned him a fight against Brendan Allen for the vacant LFA middleweight title last month, which he won via unanimous decision. He replaces the injured Alessio Di Chirico on nine days’ notice.
Natal, for reasons that continue to elude me, is one of my great predictive banes. I just can’t pick the guy’s fights to save my life. This, compounded with Anders’ propensity for quick finishes that both build hype and leave me little footage to work with, made this a fight I wasn’t looking forward to dealing with.
I’ve gone back and forth a few times, but I think I’ll settle on Anders.
Anders is definitely the athlete his résumé suggests, packing some swift and powerful hands alongside physicality and the ability to go five rounds. The level of competition is worrying outside of Allen, of course, but Natal’s just too inconsistent for me to pick against a powerhouse like this. Anders tags him early.
Prediction: Anders by first-round TKO

170 lbs.: Ryan LaFlare (13-1) vs. Alex Oliveira (17-4-1)

It’s been four years since LaFlare, then 7-0 with seven finishes, debuted in the Octagon with a wide win over Benny Alloway. The finishes haven’t been there since, but the wins certainly have, as he’s gone 6-1 in the promotion and recently returned from over a year away to dispatch Roan Carneiro at UFC 208. He stands two inches taller than Oliveira at 6’1”, but will give up two inches of reach.
“Cowboy’s” jumps between lightweight and welterweight ended when he blew up the scales against Will Brooks, forcing a full-time move to 170 despite the victory. The change in scenery doesn’t appear to be bothering him, however, as he recently submitted Tim Means in front of a Brazilian crowd at UFC Fight Night 106. He has knocked out ten professional opponents and submitted another four.
Without a hefty layoff to slow LaFlare down as it did against Carneiro, he should get the win much more comfortably here. Oliveira has power and grit for days, but his striking technique remains iffy and he tends to fall back on takedowns when the going gets tough. LaFlare’s wrestling is stouter than any “Cowboy” has yet faced, an issue compounded by the fact that Oliveira won’t have the massive size advantage that he did against Brooks.
Well-rounded skills backed up by strength and punching power are enough for Oliveira to make a place for himself at 170, but not enough to take out the top-tier specialists among the welterweight ranks. Steady takedowns carry LaFlare to a decision win.
Prediction: LaFlare by unanimous decision

265 lbs.: Damian Grabowski (20-4) vs. Chase Sherman (10-3)

“The Polish Pitbull” reached the semifinals of Bellator’s first heavyweight tournament before running afoul of Cole Konrad, then proceeded to win seven of his next eight to earn a spot in the UFC. The former M-1 champ has yet to taste that sort of success in the Octagon, suffering consecutive knockout losses to Derrick Lewis and Anthony Hamilton. Twelve of his professional wins have come by submission.
“The Vanilla Gorilla” got off to a rough UFC start of his own, losing a one-sided decision to Justin Ledet and suffering a brutal knockout loss to Walt Harris in his first two Octagon appearances. His next time out, however, he rewarded the UFC for giving him another chance with a Fight of the Night-winning war against Rashad Coulter just two months ago. He steps in for the injured Christian Colombo on around a month’s notice.
I would summarize this fight as “not as good as I thought” vs. “exactly as good as I thought, which is not very.” Grabowski’s been more or less manhandled in the Octagon, while Sherman somehow found a way to get tagged repeatedly by a far shorter fighter on one leg.
I’m not expecting a title challenger to emerge from this, is what I’m saying.
I’ve been wrong about him before, but I’m still leaning towards Grabowski. Sherman’s got an iffy gas tank, no defense, and an unproven ground game. Grabowski, for all his faults, can go all fifteen minutes at a solid pace and is the better-rounded of the two. Grabowski submits a fading Sherman late.
Prediction: Grabowski by third-round submission

[turbozed]

Still time to jump on the Shane Burgos money train if you haven't yet... At his current price you can throw him in a parlay or two. Barely.

Line widened to -370 now so not quite as attractive as it was before. I decided to pass. Burgos looks like a bad matchup for Pepey but still a few question marks here.

First of all, betting for or against Pepey is always unpredictable. He's won twice as a 3-1 dog, somehow finding random submissions like flying triangles. For all his spazziness, he's likely to just get cracked by Burgos' accurate shots. Still, Burgos is pretty flat footed and stays planted so Pepey might find a way to get close and tie up.

Burgos is also super hittable. While this isn't a problem against powerless strikers like his first two opponents, he might get caught with some weird spinning kick or those Groenhart knees that Pepey loves to throw. Maybe not enough to KO Burgos, but maybe enough to unbalance him enough to lock in a sub.

Conventional wisdom here is that Pepey is a 1 round fighter and Burgos can just one-shot kill middling FW's like Pepey who has been KO'd in the first round a few times before. But Burgos wasn't able to put out Trator in 3 rounds, or Rosa until the 3rd round. Even then, it wasn't one-shot KO power, Rosa was on his feet arguing. Pepey also hasn't been KO'd for a long time, and when he did it was to ground strikes. He seems to have fixed this in the Elkins fight, looking a lot more durable. Burgos won't want to get into Pepey's guard, and he'll probably motion him to stand up. This makes me think the fight goes over 1.5 rounds at + odds. Probably will wait for the odds to get better since most people expect Pepey to get starched early (see the mmamania writeup above).

[THE_LOCKSMITH]

Really is crazy to see Weidman, the guy who dethroned Anderson Silva and had a decent title run now the +150 dog against a undersized TUF winner...

[PaperTrail07]

Weidman got lucky Moose took off for Bellator...He wanted ZERO part of that rematch LOL....skills were too much

[PaperTrail07]

However Him and Michael Johnson have made HUGE improvements.......He also took out Hall w nothing but college wrestling...

Really is crazy to see Weidman, the guy who dethroned Anderson Silva and had a decent title run now the +150 dog against a undersized TUF winner...

[UncleChael]

Chris Weidman easy...
I used to call him Superman
The All-American all day
4 hotels, 12houses @+151 Weidman.

[Shagdogy]

I encourage you guys to take a close look at Bochniak as the dog vs. Kennedy. Bochniak's TDD and ability to scramble to the feet is very good. Kennedy has had his success almost entirely behind smothering clinch pressure, trip takedowns, and occasional double legs. If he can't get the fight to the ground, he's outgunned. Bochniak has a skillset to make this fight very tough for Kennedy. There's value with him IMO.

[JIBBBY]

I encourage you guys to take a close look at Bochniak as the dog vs. Kennedy. Bochniak's TDD and ability to scramble to the feet is very good. Kennedy has had his success almost entirely behind smothering clinch pressure, trip takedowns, and occasional double legs. If he can't get the fight to the ground, he's outgunned. Bochniak has a skillset to make this fight very tough for Kennedy. There's value with him IMO.

You could be right about Kyle.. I am still capping this fight...

145 lbs.: Kyle Bochniak (7-1) vs. Jeremy Kennedy (10-0)

Bochniak stepped up on short notice to face Charles Rosa in Boston and, despite a strong start, ultimately lost a competitive unanimous decision to the local favorite. Seven months later, he returned to the cage to win a narrow split decision over Ultimate Fighter: Latin America 2 winner Enrique Barzola in Vancouver. This will be his first fight in almost eleven months.
24-year-old Kennedy first entered the Octagon in August of 2016, where he took a clinch-heavy decision over late replacement Alex Ricci. Returning to featherweight, he took on Ultimate Fighter: Brazil winner Rony “Jason” and used a quality takedown game to win a unanimous decision. He stands four inches taller than Bochniak at 5’11”.
Bochniak should be winless in the UFC. He’s aggressive and has decent power, but appears to have issues with the sort of grappling Kennedy brings to the table. He’s not a big enough hitter to end things on the feet, either, nor the footwork to keep his back off the cage.
In short, he just doesn’t have the tools to make “JBC” uncomfortable. Kennedy utilizes regular takedowns to earn his third UFC victory.
Prediction: Kennedy by unanimous decision

[turbozed]

I encourage you guys to take a close look at Bochniak as the dog vs. Kennedy. Bochniak's TDD and ability to scramble to the feet is very good. Kennedy has had his success almost entirely behind smothering clinch pressure, trip takedowns, and occasional double legs. If he can't get the fight to the ground, he's outgunned. Bochniak has a skillset to make this fight very tough for Kennedy. There's value with him IMO.

Thanks. Just to add some outside opinion, the guys on the MMA Vivisection mentioned the odds are a bit too wide here too. I haven't watched the tape yet but they agree with your assessment. If Bochniak comes out and can stop the wrestling through his strength or athleticism, then his odds improve a lot. I'll be taking a look at it too.

[Shagdogy]

Thanks. Just to add some outside opinion, the guys on the MMA Vivisection mentioned the odds are a bit too wide here too. I haven't watched the tape yet but they agree with your assessment. If Bochniak comes out and can stop the wrestling through his strength or athleticism, then his odds improve a lot. I'll be taking a look at it too.

Yeah I definitely won't go big on Bochniak. I have it capped as a real close fight but edge to Bochniak. I think he has shown to be real tough to hold down. Could end up a pretty boring clinch fest if Kennedy is able to push him against the cage but Bochniak resists the takedown.

Bochniak has a good leg kick to slow down Kennedy and his right hand has some pretty good timing. I definitely favor him in the stand up.

[Sanity Check]

Gas did get dropped once but that was against horror story.. This may have been more of an off balance slip as well.. I don't believe he was rocked either..

Definitely off balance. He got hit in midstep with only his right foot on the ground & deliberately drops both of his elbows to break his fall.

[Hugo de Naranja]

I'll be out of town this weekend on a rafting trip so I'll post my picks and plays tonight. Not a ton of action for me on this card. Best of luck to everyone

[Hugo de Naranja]

UFC on Fox 25: Gastelum vs. Weidman Picks:
Chris Wade Unanimous Decision (30-27, 29-28 x2)
Shane Burgos Round 1 TKO (Punches)
Timothy Johnson Unanimous Decision (29-28 x3)
Brian Kelleher Unanimous Decision (29-28 x3)
Jeremy Kennedy Unanimous Decision (30-27, 29-28 x2)
Chase Sherman Round 1 KO (Punches)
Ryan LaFlare Unanimous Decision(30-27, 29-28 x2)
Eryk Anders Round 1 KO (Punches)
Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos Split Decision (29-28 x2, 28-29)
Thomas Almeida Round 2 TKO (Elbow and Punches)
Gian Villante Round 1 TKO (Punches)
Dennis Bermudez Unanimous Decision (30-27 x2, 30-26)
Kelvin Gastelum Round 3 TKO (Punches)

[Hugo de Naranja]

UFC on Fox 25: Gastelum vs. Weidman

Fight Pass Prelims:

Fight #1: Wade vs. Perez
No Bet

Fight #2: Burgos vs. Pepey
Burgos+Pepey Under 1.5 (+105) 1.5u
Pepey Submission (+856) .5u

Fight #3: Johnson vs. Albini (DEBUT)
No Bet

Fight #4: Kelleher vs. Vera
Vera Submission (+600) .5u

Fight #5: Kennedy vs. Bochniak
Parlays

Fox Sports 1 Prelims:

Fight #6: Sherman vs. Grabowski
Sherman Round 1 (+150) .5u

Fight #7: Oliveira vs. LaFlare
LaFlare Decision (-101) 1.01u to win 1u

Fight #8: Natal vs. Anders (DEBUT)
No Bet

Fight #9: Zaleski dos Santos vs. Good
Zaleski dos Santos+Good Under 1.5 (+115) .5u
Zaleski dos Santos (+170) 2u
Zaleski dos Santos Round 3 (+1850) .25u

Main Card:

Fight #10: Rivera vs. Almeida
Almeida (+175) 1u
Almeida ITD (+329) 1u

Fight #11: Villante vs. Cummins
Villante KO (+170) 1.5u
Villante+Cummins Draw (+6500) .25u

Hedge:
Cummins Round 3 (+1250) .25u

Fight #12: Bermudez vs. Elkins
Bermudez -3.5 (+155) 1u
Bermudez+Elkins Under 2.5 (+225) .5u

Fight #13: Gastelum vs. Weidman
Gastelum (+115) 3u
Gastelum ITD (+234) 1u
Gastelum Decision (+319) .5u
Gastelum Round 2 (+625) .5u
Gastelum Round 3 (+925) .5u
Gastelum Round 4 (+1325) .25u
Gastelum Round 5 (+1925) .25u

Hedge(s):
Weidman Decision (+411) 1u
Weidman Submission (+851) .5u
Weidman Round 1 (+900) .25u

Straight Parlays:
Kennedy/Sherman (+108) 1u
Kennedy/LaFlare+Oliveira Over 2.5 (+117) 2u
Bermudez/Gastelum (+144) 1u

Full Card Props:

Overs on Decisions, No Submissions When They Come Out

[JIBBBY]

I'll be out of town this weekend on a rafting trip so I'll post my picks and plays tonight. Not a ton of action for me on this card. Best of luck to everyone

Where ya rafting?

I did it once on a surfing trip down in Costa Rica going down a rain forest river.. We had some time to kill and gave it a go.. The friends with me were experienced rafters and did it before, it was my first time.. We ended up signing up for an advanced Level 5 rafting run and it was very challenging, very intense and nuts..

The raft instructor was yelling High right, high left, for us all to react and quick paddle, you had to be on it and act fast or you all end up slamming into boulders and or hit bad drops, this river was raging fast and rocky... There were 8 of us on this big round heavy duty raft.. Foot hold straps at the bottom of the raft to hold you down.. Everyone on the raft was experienced but again it was my first time white water rafting..

A buddy of mine thought it would be funny and cute while on this Costa Rica surfing trip to bamboozle me.... I said ok book it but make it an easy or medium level rafting run for me please. It's my first time... What do my buddies do, they sign up for the most aggressive rafting trip they offered... I wasn't informed until I got on the raft and strapped in.. I was pissed.. Instructor was saying I should not go.. I was like my friends are dicks but I'm in...

The rafting was very intense, fast, bouncy and about hour long, at the end my back was wrenched but it was fun. There were chill moments where you saw sloths and monkeys in the trees of the rain forrest, very dark in spots because of the tree cover.... Cool stuff and we ended up in some remote village were the villagers lived off the land only, simple and cool people and took us in.. Great times.. Adrenalin rush for sure..

Enjoy buddy... Just thought to share my one and only rafting experience..

I remember it looking alot like this in the picture below, a few more people and just a little bigger thick rounder raft.. Oh and no women only stacked dudes that were very intense..

[turbozed]

Like the value on the Pepey submission too. But I might be taking the over in that fight which will make the prop into a minor hedge.

[turbozed]

Anyone else think that Perez is a live dog here? The two fought before and it was a split decision. That was 3 years ago and I'm not sure if the two have changed too much since then. I get why Wade is the favorite since he's got stronger wrestling and the ability to control Perez on top. But Wade also has a pretty low fight IQ and may try to strike with Perez where it'll be a toss-up or Perez has a slight advantage with power.

Wade gave up position often to go for low percentage chokes in his previous fights, and this might give Perez opportunities to scramble to his feet. Wade also seems to fade into Round 3. After two straight losses, and in front of his home crowd (Perez's home crowd too, kind of), he may not be interested in a pure top control victory. Either way, 3-1 is pretty wide for two relatively evenly matched guys. At the very least, Perez is capable of winning a round (either the 2nd or 3rd most likely). Worth a look at these odds, or maybe +3.5 when it comes out.

Perez does have an extremely chokeable looking neck but hasn't lost by sub.

[Hugo de Naranja]

Where ya rafting?

I did it once on a surfing trip down in Costa Rica going down a rain forest river.. We had some time to kill and gave it a go.. The friends with me were experienced rafters and did it before, it was my first time.. We ended up signing up for an advanced Level 5 rafting run and it was very challenging, very intense and nuts..

The raft instructor was yelling High right, high left, for us all to react and quick paddle, you had to be on it and act fast or you all end up slamming into boulders and or hit bad drops, this river was raging fast and rocky... There were 8 of us on this big round heavy duty raft.. Foot hold straps at the bottom of the raft to hold you down.. Everyone on the raft was experienced but again it was my first time white water rafting..

A buddy of mine thought it would be funny and cute while on this Costa Rica surfing trip to bamboozle me.... I said ok book it but make it an easy or medium level rafting run for me please. It's my first time... What do my buddies do, they sign up for the most aggressive rafting trip they offered... I wasn't informed until I got on the raft and strapped in.. I was pissed.. Instructor was saying I should not go.. I was like my friends are dicks but I'm in...

The rafting was very intense, fast, bouncy and about hour long, at the end my back was wrenched but it was fun. There were chill moments where you saw sloths and monkeys in the trees of the rain forrest, very dark in spots because of the tree cover.... Cool stuff and we ended up in some remote village were the villagers lived off the land only, simple and cool people and took us in.. Great times.. Adrenalin rush for sure..

Enjoy buddy... Just thought to share my one and only rafting experience..

I remember it looking alot like this in the picture below, a few more people and just a little bigger thick rounder raft.. Oh and no women only stacked dudes that were very intense..

Sounds like a great time. Thanks for sharing Jibs! We're going on the Arkansas River near the Royal Gorge in Colorado

[turbozed]

Anyone know of a way to bet against both Gian Villante and Patrick Cummins even though they are fighting each other? I'd like to fade both of them but unfortunately this creates a paradox.

[Hugo de Naranja]

Anyone know of a way to bet against both Gian Villante and Patrick Cummins even though they are fighting each other? I'd like to fade both of them but unfortunately this creates a paradox.

Draw

[Shagdogy]

Anyone else think that Perez is a live dog here? The two fought before and it was a split decision. That was 3 years ago and I'm not sure if the two have changed too much since then. I get why Wade is the favorite since he's got stronger wrestling and the ability to control Perez on top. But Wade also has a pretty low fight IQ and may try to strike with Perez where it'll be a toss-up or Perez has a slight advantage with power.

Wade gave up position often to go for low percentage chokes in his previous fights, and this might give Perez opportunities to scramble to his feet. Wade also seems to fade into Round 3. After two straight losses, and in front of his home crowd (Perez's home crowd too, kind of), he may not be interested in a pure top control victory. Either way, 3-1 is pretty wide for two relatively evenly matched guys. At the very least, Perez is capable of winning a round (either the 2nd or 3rd most likely). Worth a look at these odds, or maybe +3.5 when it comes out.

Perez does have an extremely chokeable looking neck but hasn't lost by sub.

I agree the line is too wide but I do think Wade wins. Like you said, it's a guy who has good wrestling and solid top control vs a guy who spends too much time on his back. Perez has bad fight IQ as well. He beat Diakiese up in round 2 and had the chance to take the fight in round 3. His corner specifically told him no more kicks but he did it anyway, got his kick caught and spent round 3 on his back. fight over and he takes an L.

[Shagdogy]

Anyone know of a way to bet against both Gian Villante and Patrick Cummins even though they are fighting each other? I'd like to fade both of them but unfortunately this creates a paradox.

Right? I hate both these guys. My lean is Gian by KO cause Cummins has such a terrible jaw but who knows? I try not to bet on two guys I think are terrible.

[JIBBBY]

Right? I hate both these guys. My lean is Gian by KO cause Cummin has such a terrible jaw but who knows? I try not to bet on two guys I think are terrible.

Yep, we've see Cummins gas, not get the take downs and then get dropped.. Dude has been dropped a few times before and is really horrible standing, zero head movement, telegraphed take downs when gassed.... I thin Gian can get Starbuck boy out of there late in the fight also....

You really don't even have to hit him and he drops ..

[turbozed]

Draw

I was joking around a bit but I have to admit that's a pretty enticing bet at +6500. I wonder if NYSAC have their own judges and know how to score a 10-10 round. Although it's possible Villante has a 10-8 first round and then gasses.