[JIBBBY]

Guida was always a Fav too....

Fading Guida myself... Another washed up fighter.. So many washed up fighters fighting on this card.. Alot of can on can violence..

They should have a name for this card - Can redemption card or something ..

[Shagdogy]

Good odds on Kimball as the dog right now. I have him -165-185 range. Stansbury is not that good and even though Kimball's TDD sucks, he has much more grit than Stansbury AND Stansbury rarely pushes for takedowns anyway. On the feet, where I think the majority of this fight takes place unless Stansbury randomly found some fight IQ, Kimball is actually pretty quick and has some nice, varied strikes for the weight class. Stansbury gets peppered up by Kimball I think.

[Shagdogy]

What do folks think of Johnny Case v Tony Martin?

I remember a lot of people here lost on Case v Jake Matthews last year.

Tony Martin's ground game is a bit of a concern. Otherwise, bounce back for Case I say.

Count me as one of the ones who lost on Case vs Matthews so I'm a little gun shy with him, BUT, the reason we liked Case was the striking and his ability to keep it on the feet or create scrambles and quickly get back to his feet. Matthews getting that sub was unexpected. I have Case as the favorite again here. Martin's top game is very good, but his takedowns are not. He's super strong and does a good job getting guys down against the fence, but Case is good at staying off the fence. In the center, Case is real good at shrugging off shots, and Martin's shots are very predictable. He just bum rushes forward looking to push you to the cage and then get to work. Doesn't even set it up with strikes. On the feet, Case will pick Martin apart. Martin is very durable but his front leg is there to be kicked and he doesn't check it at all. His chin is also out there. He doesn't get hurt easy but he certainly gets hit easy. This is a good fight but Case holds the biggest advantage in the fight which is his striking over Martin's. Enough to have him as a mild fav. Good luck!

[PaperTrail07]

Ok Ok......Guida is Old Slower and his chin is gone...his last good win was 6 years ago over Pettis....in which he controlled with Wrestling....Koch is bigger, more reach and way faster.....guida's style should not bother him a bit....IMO......as for Hendricks...it is just a step DOWN in competition for him....I see this as his "I'm back fight" .......he surpised everyone last fight....why not again...

Not sold that Hendricks is back or that Koch is healthy. Might ride with out on the Siver one but trying not to bet him too big since he's not great either.

[PaperTrail07]

The man outta east Liverpool is predictable....value there in a toss up fight...

Good odds on Kimball as the dog right now. I have him -165-185 range. Stansbury is not that good and even though Kimball's TDD sucks, he has much more grit than Stansbury AND Stansbury rarely pushes for takedowns anyway. On the feet, where I think the majority of this fight takes place unless Stansbury randomly found some fight IQ, Kimball is actually pretty quick and has some nice, varied strikes for the weight class. Stansbury gets peppered up by Kimball I think.

[Hugo de Naranja]

Ok Ok......Guida is Old Slower and his chin is gone...his last good win was 6 years ago over Pettis....in which he controlled with Wrestling....Koch is bigger, more reach and way faster.....guida's style should not bother him a bit....IMO......as for Hendricks...it is just a step DOWN in competition for him....I see this as his "I'm back fight" .......he surpised everyone last fight....why not again...

Hope you cash them all and I think they are all decent bets. We'll see if I change my mind after more tape study.

[Shagdogy]

Okay so I really really hate Devin Powell as a fighter. I won a max bet on Klose in his debut fight and I'm inclined to think Horcher smokes him as well, but I can't find any of Horcher's CFFC fights to watch, and that's all of his fights for the past 4 years. Anyone find those anywhere?

[Hugo de Naranja]

Okay so I really really hate Devin Powell as a fighter. I won a max bet on Klose in his debut fight and I'm inclined to think Horcher smokes him as well, but I can't find any of Horcher's CFFC fights to watch, and that's all of his fights for the past 4 years. Anyone find those anywhere?

Yeah Powell is trash

[Shagdogy]

Hugo - If I remember correctly you're a real big fan of Vitor Miranda? Watching his fights... he showed some very good TDD against the cage against Hester and Guimaraes, and would even punish with elbows when they committed too heavily. What do you think happened in that Camozzi fight? Why couldn't he keep it on the feet or get back to his feet?

This fight might be the passing of the torch from the fading Miranda to up and comer Vettori.

[GoBlue77]

In.chiesa I trust. Cabt wait to win money betting him

Dumb bet man.

[Demonata]

Dumb bet man.

So when chiesa wins it's still a dumb bet? Making money is dumb?

[Hugo de Naranja]

Hugo - If I remember correctly you're a real big fan of Vitor Miranda? Watching his fights... he showed some very good TDD against the cage against Hester and Guimaraes, and would even punish with elbows when they committed too heavily. What do you think happened in that Camozzi fight? Why couldn't he keep it on the feet or get back to his feet?

This fight might be the passing of the torch from the fading Miranda to up and comer Vettori.

I don't think you remember correctly. He has good striking but not much else. I bet Camozzi against him at (+200) in his last fight and he's had a long layoff since then. Planning to bet Vettori -3.5 if the price is decent.

[JIBBBY]

So when chiesa wins it's still a dumb bet? Making money is dumb?

If Chiesa wins.. Big if..

[GoBlue77]

So when chiesa wins it's still a dumb bet? Making money is dumb?

You sound like you're trying to convince yourself. Good luck

I hear people mention looking at tape on here but fail miserably at looking into what's going on in the fighters life during this time which I'd say is the most important key.
What good are the tools a fighter possesses if the engine that drives them isn't on point.

[Demonata]

If Chiesa wins.. Big if..

If its such a big "if" I dare you to bet big on lee since in your mind he's a lock so at that line he's a steal.

[JIBBBY]

If its such a big "if" I dare you to bet big on lee since in your mind he's a lock so at that line he's a steal.

It's not a lock and never said it was.. I lean Lee because of his wrestling advantage that's all..

I may still hedge Chiesa by sub if the odds are good.. I'm certainly betting Kevin Lee though for the win in this fight and for profit even with the hedge in play.. We'll see..

[Demonata]

You sound like you're trying to convince yourself. Good luck

I hear people mention looking at tape on here but fail miserably at looking into what's going on in the fighters life during this time which I'd say is the most important key.
What good are the tools a fighter possesses if the engine that drives them isn't on point.

I dont need to convince myself. He should be the favorite in this fight and most ufc fighters are picking him to win as well. Getting him as the underdog is a steal. I dare you to bet big on lee if he's such a lock. I'm putting $500 on chiesa and not even worried.

[Demonata]

It's not a lock and never said it was.. I lean Lee because of his wrestling advantage that's all..

I may still hedge Chiesa by sub if the odds are good.. I'm certainly betting Kevin Lee though for the win in this fight and for profit even with the hedge in play.. We'll see..

That makes no sense whatsoever. If one fighter is a big if to win then obviously you really believe the other opponent will win easily. Why hedge with a chiesa sub if you believe there's slim chance he wins. I'll take chiesas wrestling and grappling advantage all day.

[firekillex]

chiesa choking that boy outtttttt

[JIBBBY]

That makes no sense whatsoever. If one fighter is a big if to win then obviously you really believe the other opponent will win easily. Why hedge with a chiesa sub if you believe there's slim chance he wins. I'll take chiesas wrestling and grappling advantage all day.

Anything can happen in an MMA fight. I hedge prop only when the odds are great on that prop. It saves me time and time again when I do pick wrong in a bout..

I may just play Lee straight though and by decision for smaller. Lee has good Jits and wrestling and I don't think Chiesa can knock or sub out Lee... I also don't think Chiesa can win a fight off his back because that's where Lee is gonna put him in every round..

I do like Kevin Lee to win this fight and probably by decision..

[firekillex]

kevin lees 40% Takedown accuracy guys a wrestling legend

just because he talked a bunch of crap at a press conference everybody is on his nuts now
unless hes made gigantic improvements and chiesa dropped off or didnt improve due to his back injury this fight is Chiesas to win
Lee will have the athletic advantage and speed, Chiesa will have the grappling and size

[turbozed]

Anyone got a read on Herrig/Kish? I thought Herrig would be a bigger favorite since she's had two impressive wins in her last fights, outstriking Grasso in the latest. I remember she took a one year break and looked shredded and much more athletic once she came back. Striking looks crisp.

Kish, on the other hand, I was looking to bet because she seems to have man-strength compared to her opponents and also endless cardio. Kish has terrible IQ, and walks straight into punches, but she seemed to have gotten a lot better from her first to second fight. This was against bad competition, and her last opponent was short notice too. Media had Kish losing both of her fights.

I'm thinking Herrig can stay in her range and counter Kish well coming in. But there's a chance that she gets pressured and bullied like in the PVZ fight. Seems like Herrig should be a bigger favorite, so I'm wondering what I'm missing here.

[GoBlue77]

Anyone got a read on Herrig/Kish? I thought Herrig would be a bigger favorite since she's had two impressive wins in her last fights, outstriking Grasso in the latest. I remember she took a one year break and looked shredded and much more athletic once she came back. Striking looks crisp.

Kish, on the other hand, I was looking to bet because she seems to have man-strength compared to her opponents and also endless cardio. Kish has terrible IQ, and walks straight into punches, but she seemed to have gotten a lot better from her first to second fight. This was against bad competition, and her last opponent was short notice too. Media had Kish losing both of her fights.

I'm thinking Herrig can stay in her range and counter Kish well coming in. But there's a chance that she gets pressured and bullied like in the PVZ fight. Seems like Herrig should be a bigger favorite, so I'm wondering what I'm missing here.

herring saw a shrink and its paid off, stronger mentally now

i lean kish tho. tougher girl

[GoBlue77]

i wonder how much chiesa money is based off kevin lee HATE

i don't think a single person likes that guy lol, and people do bet like that.

[firekillex]

i actually like kevin lee, hes a real dude if you watch some smaller interviews
hes tryna get his name out there but i dont think hes reached his full potential yet he could be a great fighter eventually

[Shagdogy]

Yeah Powell is trash

I'm going just under a max bet on Horcher... it's really kind of a gamble since there's not much recent tape to see but he looks like he has the ability to keep the fight on the feet based on his ability to even briefly fight off Khabib's takedowns. On the feet, Powell has some of the weakest strikes I've ever seen in the UFC. You can walk right through that guy and bully him. Coming off a loss in a super tough spot, you figure Horcher will want to show that he belongs, whereas Powell was given as good an opportunity as he could've asked for in his debut against a short notice fighter who was also making his debut and he got smoked. Not one moment of successful offense in that entire fight for him. How did he get a second fight?

[Hugo de Naranja]

I'm going just under a max bet on Horcher... it's really kind of a gamble since there's not much recent tape to see but he looks like he has the ability to keep the fight on the feet based on his ability to even briefly fight off Khabib's takedowns. On the feet, Powell has some of the weakest strikes I've ever seen in the UFC. You can walk right through that guy and bully him. Coming off a loss in a super tough spot, you figure Horcher will want to show that he belongs, whereas Powell was given as good an opportunity as he could've asked for in his debut against a short notice fighter who was also making his debut and he got smoked. Not one moment of successful offense in that entire fight for him. How did he get a second fight?

He got a second fight so he could give someone else a win.

[turbozed]

Count me as one of the ones who lost on Case vs Matthews so I'm a little gun shy with him, BUT, the reason we liked Case was the striking and his ability to keep it on the feet or create scrambles and quickly get back to his feet. Matthews getting that sub was unexpected. I have Case as the favorite again here. Martin's top game is very good, but his takedowns are not. He's super strong and does a good job getting guys down against the fence, but Case is good at staying off the fence. In the center, Case is real good at shrugging off shots, and Martin's shots are very predictable. He just bum rushes forward looking to push you to the cage and then get to work. Doesn't even set it up with strikes. On the feet, Case will pick Martin apart. Martin is very durable but his front leg is there to be kicked and he doesn't check it at all. His chin is also out there. He doesn't get hurt easy but he certainly gets hit easy. This is a good fight but Case holds the biggest advantage in the fight which is his striking over Martin's. Enough to have him as a mild fav. Good luck!

Case was getting his kick caught a few times in the fight against Matthewss so that's another potential avenue to get Case to the fence. I really would like to see Case be able to shrug off Martin's shots and make him pay with accurate counters (or maybe a very well timed knee). But when I run this fight through in my head, all I see is Martin grinding Case up to the cage, then hitting a takedown every couple minutes or so, only for Case to get up and then be put against the cage again to a showering of boos as it gets deeper into the fight.

Case does give up his back a bit too easily (in the Matthews fight, it was more because he was tired and hurt to the body), and there's another potential avenue of victory for Martin. That might be a good prop to look out for if the payout is good.

[Rich Benjamins]

I may bet on Horcher. The only thing that has me hesitating is he got in a horrible motorcycle accident a year ago. He said hes recovered but hard to know for sure. He also is a pretty steep favorite, a lot of juice there.

I'm going just under a max bet on Horcher... it's really kind of a gamble since there's not much recent tape to see but he looks like he has the ability to keep the fight on the feet based on his ability to even briefly fight off Khabib's takedowns. On the feet, Powell has some of the weakest strikes I've ever seen in the UFC. You can walk right through that guy and bully him. Coming off a loss in a super tough spot, you figure Horcher will want to show that he belongs, whereas Powell was given as good an opportunity as he could've asked for in his debut against a short notice fighter who was also making his debut and he got smoked. Not one moment of successful offense in that entire fight for him. How did he get a second fight?

[Rich Benjamins]

I agree and I'm betting big on Lee. You can see the huge improvements in Lee's game. Compare his fight vs Escudero and vs Trinaldo. He is much more aggressive now and thinks strategically, mixing up his boxing, kicks, and takedowns. I think we'll see an even better Lee vs Chiesa. Not to say it will be an easy fight, but I think Lee can strategically pick Chiesa apart on the feet, and get takedowns.

i actually like kevin lee, hes a real dude if you watch some smaller interviews
hes tryna get his name out there but i dont think hes reached his full potential yet he could be a great fighter eventually

[Shagdogy]

I may bet on Horcher. The only thing that has me hesitating is he got in a horrible motorcycle accident a year ago. He said hes recovered but hard to know for sure. He also is a pretty steep favorite, a lot of juice there.

Didn't know about the accident. A hole in my capping? Oh well. The bet is in. Got 4u on him at -320. Even if he's still in a wheelchair from that accident he can prob sleep his way to a draw. I really think Powell is just not UFC Caliber. Hope he doesn't prove me wrong.

[Shagdogy]

Case was getting his kick caught a few times in the fight against Matthewss so that's another potential avenue to get Case to the fence. I really would like to see Case be able to shrug off Martin's shots and make him pay with accurate counters (or maybe a very well timed knee). But when I run this fight through in my head, all I see is Martin grinding Case up to the cage, then hitting a takedown every couple minutes or so, only for Case to get up and then be put against the cage again to a showering of boos as it gets deeper into the fight.

Case does give up his back a bit too easily (in the Matthews fight, it was more because he was tired and hurt to the body), and there's another potential avenue of victory for Martin. That might be a good prop to look out for if the payout is good.

I hear you. Tough fight to call. Took a small play on Case as the dog. Wouldn't be surprised if it goes how you described though.

[UncleChael]

What makes you say that?

https://youtu.be/H86fav_AakA

[Wohlford]

Fading Guida myself... Another washed up fighter.. So many washed up fighters fighting on this card.. Alot of can on can violence..

They should have a name for this card - Can redemption card or something ..

UFC doesn't want to let Bellator get a strong toehold on the Can market. Going head-to-head this weekend.

[PaperTrail07]

I thought he retired after the accident honestly.....

I may bet on Horcher. The only thing that has me hesitating is he got in a horrible motorcycle accident a year ago. He said hes recovered but hard to know for sure. He also is a pretty steep favorite, a lot of juice there.