1. #36
    JIBBBY
    JIBBBY's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 12-10-09
    Posts: 83,075
    Betpoints: 11874

    Quote Originally Posted by bjpenn85 View Post
    Court Mcgee sucks, ben saunders suck. Their cans, and thats it.
    Agreed...

  2. #37
    Demonata
    Demonata's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 07-12-11
    Posts: 25,800
    Betpoints: 5421

    Quote Originally Posted by bjpenn85 View Post
    Court Mcgee sucks, ben saunders suck. Their cans, and thats it.
    Well then Robert Whittaker must really suck since he lost to court McGee.

  3. #38
    firekillex
    firekillex's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 09-18-13
    Posts: 6,420

    Quote Originally Posted by Demonata View Post
    Well then Robert Whittaker must really suck since he lost to court McGee.
    Demonata everybody who isnt a champion or top 10 is a can, remember its SBR logic
    Points Awarded:

    Demonata gave firekillex 2 SBR Point(s) for this post.


  4. #39
    JIBBBY
    JIBBBY's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 12-10-09
    Posts: 83,075
    Betpoints: 11874

    Why am I not that excited for this card? Probably because I don't know half the fighters on this card for starters.. Not that thrilled to cap this event... I may just play the main card that's it..

  5. #40
    PaperTrail07
    MMA is the most pure sport
    PaperTrail07's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 08-29-08
    Posts: 20,423
    Betpoints: 585

    JIBBBBERS its a usual Sweden card.... Gusta, Sabotta, Musoke, Hermanson---not as many USA prospects but still a very solid card

  6. #41
    PaperTrail07
    MMA is the most pure sport
    PaperTrail07's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 08-29-08
    Posts: 20,423
    Betpoints: 585

    Don't forget its an AM start....VERY AM for all you west coasters 10AM main card LOL...

  7. #42
    JIBBBY
    JIBBBY's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 12-10-09
    Posts: 83,075
    Betpoints: 11874

    Well here are a couple write ups anyways on the Prelims that just came out... MMA mania part 1 -




    170 lbs.: Darren Till vs. Jessin Ayari

    Darren Till (13-0-1) made an immediate impression in the UFC with a brutal knockout of Wendell Oliveira, the ninth of his career. He looked on track for another big win over Nicolas Dalby, but a busted shoulder left him on the wrong end of a 10-8 round and subsequent draw.
    This will be his first fight since Oct. 2015.
    Jessin Ayari (16-3), fighting out of his native Germany, overcame former UFC competitor Mickael Lebout to extend his win streak to six and earn a UFC shot. There, he faced veteran “Judo” Jim Wallhead in Hamburg and survived a late surge to take home a split decision win.
    He has finished eight professional opponents via submission.
    This is a bounce-back fight for Till, plain and simple. Ayari is a solid competitor, but he’s chinny and sorely outmatched on the feet. The ring rust is a concern, of course, but the gap between these two is too vast for the layoff to close. Till’s still just 24 and figures to have an excellent career ahead of him. He blasts out Ayari with punches in a hurry.
    Prediction: Till via first-round knockout

    155 lbs.: Marcin Held vs. Damir Hadzovic


    Marcin Held (22-6) left Bellator — where he had fought since the age of 19 — for UFC in 2016, losing a decision to Diego Sanchez in his promotional debut. He went on to face Joe Lauzon and appeared to win the last two rounds easily, but wound up suffering a split decision loss.
    Six of his 12 submission wins have come by leg lock.
    Bosnia’s Damir Hadzovic (10-3) brought a six-fight win streak into his Octagon debut, having lost only to former UFC competitor Andreas Stahl and current Middleweight contender Krzysztof Jotko. Mairbek Taisumov proved too stiff a test, knocking out his foe with a brutal uppercut late in the first round.
    This will be his first fight in 13 months thanks to both **** issues and the cancelation of UFC Fight Night 97 in Manila.
    Sanchez was a tough match up and Held deserved the nod against Lauzon. Now, it’s time for him to show UFC fans what he can really do. Hadzovic can do damage on the feet, but doesn’t begin to compare to the level of opposition Held has faced in the past. Plus, Held has never been stopped with strikes despite facing some scary hitters.
    “The Bosnian Bomber” isn’t a bad fighter, but he had the deep misfortune of being matched up against two very scary Lightweight competitors in his two UFC appearances. Held scores an early takedown and locks up the finish soon after.
    Prediction: Held via first-round submission

  8. #43
    JIBBBY
    JIBBBY's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 12-10-09
    Posts: 83,075
    Betpoints: 11874

    Quote Originally Posted by PaperTrail07 View Post
    Don't forget its an AM start....VERY AM for all you west coasters 10AM main card LOL...
    Yep another reason I'm not thrilled... I'll probably get into this card in the next few days and work the props though.. I've never not bet an entire UFC card, no reason to start now ...
    Points Awarded:

    PaperTrail07 gave JIBBBY 22 Betpoint(s) for this post.


  9. #44
    JIBBBY
    JIBBBY's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 12-10-09
    Posts: 83,075
    Betpoints: 11874

    I do think Marcin Held wins by submission in that one write up above, I agree with that so far.... That's one fighter we all know and he's a one trick pony....

  10. #45
    bjpenn85
    bjpenn85's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 02-17-11
    Posts: 5,059
    Betpoints: 16650

    Quote Originally Posted by Demonata View Post
    Well then Robert Whittaker must really suck since he lost to court McGee.

    I think mcgee is a can regardless. How does this loss 4 years back in time change the fact that his a can today? You see the issue with that type of argument? His skill level is still the same in 2017. Not the worst thesis to debunk.

  11. #46
    MMANick
    MMANick's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 12-06-16
    Posts: 4,075
    Betpoints: 1831

    Gus parlayed w/ Alhassan. I think both get the finish.

  12. #47
    Ty$
    Ty$'s Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 03-20-16
    Posts: 1,241
    Betpoints: 1275

    This card sucks. Very little value imo. Gus should win but if he gets taken down could be in trouble. Should be lots of finishes. Good parlay night I'm thinking.

  13. #48
    JIBBBY
    JIBBBY's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 12-10-09
    Posts: 83,075
    Betpoints: 11874

    Quote Originally Posted by JIBBBY View Post
    Well here are a couple write ups anyways on the Prelims that just came out... MMA mania part 1 -




    170 lbs.: Darren Till vs. Jessin Ayari

    Darren Till (13-0-1) made an immediate impression in the UFC with a brutal knockout of Wendell Oliveira, the ninth of his career. He looked on track for another big win over Nicolas Dalby, but a busted shoulder left him on the wrong end of a 10-8 round and subsequent draw.
    This will be his first fight since Oct. 2015.
    Jessin Ayari (16-3), fighting out of his native Germany, overcame former UFC competitor Mickael Lebout to extend his win streak to six and earn a UFC shot. There, he faced veteran “Judo” Jim Wallhead in Hamburg and survived a late surge to take home a split decision win.
    He has finished eight professional opponents via submission.
    This is a bounce-back fight for Till, plain and simple. Ayari is a solid competitor, but he’s chinny and sorely outmatched on the feet. The ring rust is a concern, of course, but the gap between these two is too vast for the layoff to close. Till’s still just 24 and figures to have an excellent career ahead of him. He blasts out Ayari with punches in a hurry.
    Prediction: Till via first-round knockout

    155 lbs.: Marcin Held vs. Damir Hadzovic


    Marcin Held (22-6) left Bellator — where he had fought since the age of 19 — for UFC in 2016, losing a decision to Diego Sanchez in his promotional debut. He went on to face Joe Lauzon and appeared to win the last two rounds easily, but wound up suffering a split decision loss.
    Six of his 12 submission wins have come by leg lock.
    Bosnia’s Damir Hadzovic (10-3) brought a six-fight win streak into his Octagon debut, having lost only to former UFC competitor Andreas Stahl and current Middleweight contender Krzysztof Jotko. Mairbek Taisumov proved too stiff a test, knocking out his foe with a brutal uppercut late in the first round.
    This will be his first fight in 13 months thanks to both **** issues and the cancelation of UFC Fight Night 97 in Manila.
    Sanchez was a tough match up and Held deserved the nod against Lauzon. Now, it’s time for him to show UFC fans what he can really do. Hadzovic can do damage on the feet, but doesn’t begin to compare to the level of opposition Held has faced in the past. Plus, Held has never been stopped with strikes despite facing some scary hitters.
    “The Bosnian Bomber” isn’t a bad fighter, but he had the deep misfortune of being matched up against two very scary Lightweight competitors in his two UFC appearances. Held scores an early takedown and locks up the finish soon after.
    Prediction: Held via first-round submission
    Part 2 -

    135 lbs.: Pedro Munhoz vs. Damian Stasiak

    Following his debut loss to Raphael Assuncao, Pedro Munhoz (13-2) easily dispatched Matt Hobar and Jerrod Sanders before a controversial drug test failure kept him out of action for more than one year. Undaunted, he enters Sunday’s fight on the heels of “Performance of the Night”-winning submissions of Russell Doane and Justin Scoggins.

    Five of his eight submission wins have come by guillotine.
    Damian Stasiak (10-3) saw a five-fight win streak come to an end in his Octagon debut thanks to the wrestling prowess of Yaotzin Meza. “Webster” got right back on track with tapouts of Filip Pejic and Davey Grant, the latter of which marked his sixth submission in his last seven wins.
    He has submitted seven opponents overall, five by rear-naked choke.
    As talented as Munhoz is, it’s become clear that, at best, he’ll top out somewhere just below the Bantamweight Top 5. His striking still hasn’t quite come together and his wrestling can’t reach the heights of his vicious top game. Luckily for Munhoz, Stasiak is no Jimmie Rivera, and looks to be outgunned on the feet. Though he impressed me against Grant, Stasiak will almost certainly struggle with Munhoz’s pressure and aggression.
    Stasiak resides among the tier of opponent that Munhoz regularly looks spectacular against. Expect Munhoz’s strength and relentless attack to keep Stasiak on the back foot before eventually forcing a scramble for the guillotine finish.
    Prediction: Munhoz via first-round submission

    185 lbs.: Trevor Smith vs. Chris Camozzi


    Trevor Smith (14-7) — who made the jump to UFC alongside his Strikeforce compatriots in 2013 — alternated losses and wins before finally putting together consecutive wins over Dan Miller and Joe Gigliotti. “Hot Sauce” had no such success against Andrew Sanchez, who handed Smith his fourth UFC defeat.
    He replaces Magnus Cedenblad on two months notice.
    Chris Camozzi (24-12) — who made his first UFC appearance in 2010 — experienced a wholly unexpected resurgence with three consecutive victories, including a decision over surging striker Vitor Miranda. Since then, however, he’s lost consecutive fights to Thales Leites and Daniel Kelly, leaving his UFC record at 9-9.
    He has knocked out eight opponents and submitted another six.
    Camozzi’s striking has clearly improved in recent years, but that takedown defense continues to lag behind. Smith is slow and limited, but he can be a right pain in the ass if you can’t find his chin early and often. While Camozzi has the volume to theoretically keep Smith at bay, I’m not sure if he has the firepower — Camozzi knockouts are rare things.
    Smith is nowhere near Leites’ level, but has the tools to recreate his gameplan. Expect relentless takedowns from Smith to pay constant dividends as he repeatedly grounds Camozzi on his way to a decision win.
    Prediction: Smith via unanimous decision

    155 lbs.: Reza Madadi
    vs. Joaquim Silva

    A prison sentence for robbery cut short the UFC run for Reza Madadi (14-5) right after a breakout win over Michael Johnson in 2013. Two years later, he returned to the cage and has gone 1-2 in his latest run, stopping Yan Cabral between decision losses to Norman Parke and Joe Duffy.
    He replaces the injured Mairbek Taisumov on less than two weeks notice
    Joaquim Silva (9-0) — Team Shogun Rua’s third Lightweight pick on The Ultimate Fighter (TUF): “Brazil” 4 — picked up two victories before falling to teammate and eventual winner Glaico Franca. Despite the setback, he went on to edge veteran Nazareno Malegarie on the Finale and knocked out Andrew Holbrook in dramatic fashion his next time out.
    He has submitted three opponents and knocked out another five, all in the first round and one in just six seconds.
    Silva isn’t in for the concussive nightmare he faced against Mairbek Taisumov, but this won’t go well for him. Though Madadi is slow and ineffective on the feet when the opponent isn’t within a foot of him, he’s a damn good wrestler with a vicious, extremely effective top game. Going after him with the intent to grapple is doomed to failure.
    “Netto BJJ” cannot overpower Madadi on the mat and, while dangerous on the feet, isn’t likely to break Madadi’s cast-iron jaw. Madadi out-grits him to a decision victory.
    Prediction: Madadi via unanimous decision

    170 lbs.: Nico Musoke vs. Bojan Velickovic (14-4)


    Sweden’s Nico Musoke (13-4-1) turned heads with an impressive submission of Alessio Sakara in his UFC debut, then won two of his next three with a close loss to Kelvin Gastelum the only blemish. This set up a fight with Albert Tumenov, who overcame a rough opening round to win a unanimous decision.
    This will be his first fight in 28 months.
    A four-fight win streak, the last of which earned him the RFA Welterweight title, brought Bojan Velickovic (14-4) to UFC, where he edged Alessio Di Chirico in his debut. “Serbian Steel” is winless since, drawing with Michael Graves and losing a split decision to Sultan Aliev.
    He owns a technical knockout win over top light heavyweight prospect Jiri Prochazka and has not lost by anything other than majority or split decision since 2012.
    I just flat-out have not been impressed with what I’ve seen out of Velickovic. The man is gargantuan for the division, but hasn’t parlayed that into quality striking or overpowering takedowns. Musoke, assuming no serious deterioration in the last two years, ought to be able to control the fight with his powerful kicking arsenal.
    That’s a pretty sizable “if,” of course, and Velickovic has given superior technical grapplers issues in the past. At the end of the day, however, Musoke is the more proven, more complete fighter. Though it’ll likely be ugly as sin, expect Musoke to land enough shots on the feet and be on the right end of enough clinches to take the decision.
    Prediction: Musoke via unanimous decision

    Current UFC "Prelims" Prediction Record for 2017: 57-26 (1 NC)


  14. #49
    turbozed
    turbozed's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 10-15-08
    Posts: 2,435
    Betpoints: 1081

    Quote Originally Posted by Demonata View Post
    Yep I got 75% chance Ben wins. I like my odds. I don't think it's 50 50. Just like when McGregor faught Jose Aldo say McGregor winning that fight too even though the odds suggested otherwise.
    I went back and watched all of Saunders' recent fights and he very well could be 1-3 in his last 4 fights (the 1 obvious win not even being in the UFC). I thought he lost the Robertson and McGee fights. Check out mmadecisions and you'll see those fights were 50/50. Sobotta isn't elite by any standards but his striking is a bit more crisp, and probably better cardio. Saunders' guard game hasn't been a factor in his last 3 UFC bouts, maybe people are wising up to countering it. Saunders will be flying to Europe and Sobotta has (somewhat) home field advantage. I'd give a slight edge to Sobotta here but IMO its a coin flip and not 75/25 like you say. Believe me, I like Saunders because I want to see his 10p jiu jitsu succeed, but I wouldn't back him with cash. Good luck either way, I'll be on the opposite side for small.

  15. #50
    GoBlue77
    GoBlue77's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 03-20-11
    Posts: 9,166
    Betpoints: 19052

    Quote Originally Posted by bjpenn85 View Post
    I follow what you say. Youre absolutely 100% sure of a pickem, sometime you win sometimes you loose, like one should expect. You have no edge. But you believe it.

    Ohhh you bought out of the jDS bet, and probably of the alvarez also, yeah...sure..yeah.

    Tennis?Celtic? What? Jesus, what a joke. Its hilarious you come into this forum being 100% sure, and then loose so often. Its hilarious. Absolutely hilarious.



    JDS ALL DAY PEOPLE ALLLLLL DAYYYYY


    EDDIE ALVAREZ ALLLL DAYYYYYYYY

    Common, Shut the f up man. Throw a dice instead.
    initial leans when a card is announced aren't always plays. did i start a thread about it? always lose lol, check my threads record... and you will because you're on my dik. we can screen shot our accounts and play big money takes little money if you really want to.

    sorry i don't have time for retards, its "lose", not loose. graduate past a 5th grade education and come back when you're ready.

  16. #51
    bjpenn85
    bjpenn85's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 02-17-11
    Posts: 5,059
    Betpoints: 16650

    Quote Originally Posted by GoBlue77 View Post
    initial leans when a card is announced aren't always plays. did i start a thread about it? always lose lol, check my threads record... and you will because you're on my dik. we can screen shot our accounts and play big money takes little money if you really want to.



    sorry i don't have time for retards, its "lose", not loose. graduate past a 5th grade education and come back when you're ready.

    If you write 2k on JDS or eddie alwarez, is that initial lean?

    I wrote sometimes you win and sometime you lose, does this equal always loose?

  17. #52
    Rich Benjamins
    Rich Benjamins's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 12-15-15
    Posts: 831
    Betpoints: 3698

    Quote Originally Posted by turbozed View Post
    I went back and watched all of Saunders' recent fights and he very well could be 1-3 in his last 4 fights (the 1 obvious win not even being in the UFC). I thought he lost the Robertson and McGee fights. Check out mmadecisions and you'll see those fights were 50/50. Sobotta isn't elite by any standards but his striking is a bit more crisp, and probably better cardio. Saunders' guard game hasn't been a factor in his last 3 UFC bouts, maybe people are wising up to countering it. Saunders will be flying to Europe and Sobotta has (somewhat) home field advantage. I'd give a slight edge to Sobotta here but IMO its a coin flip and not 75/25 like you say. Believe me, I like Saunders because I want to see his 10p jiu jitsu succeed, but I wouldn't back him with cash. Good luck either way, I'll be on the opposite side for small.
    It's certainly a tough bet either way. I've watched a few of Saunders and Sobotta's last fights. It looks like all Saunders has is the left wheel kick to the body/arm and he has a strong triangle in his guard. That's pretty much all that Sobotta needs to worry about. Saunders boxing is mediocre, but so is Sobotta's. Sobotta is a BJJ master, so he should be able to counter and dominate Saunders on the ground. But Saunders does have the reach,and hes' tough. So Saunders path to victory would be to keep the fight standing, and keeping Sobotta at distance with his left wheel kick, jabs, and muy thai knees. Sobotta showed that he's fast, and has good timing with his punches and takedowns. I think Sobotta is faster than Saunders, and will be able to get inside and outmuscle him to the ground. But if the fight stays standing, then I'd give Saunders a slight edge for his reach. So counting on Sobotta getting the takedowns and GnP, I'm going with Sobotta.

  18. #53
    bjpenn85
    bjpenn85's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 02-17-11
    Posts: 5,059
    Betpoints: 16650

    Quote Originally Posted by turbozed View Post
    I went back and watched all of Saunders' recent fights and he very well could be 1-3 in his last 4 fights (the 1 obvious win not even being in the UFC). I thought he lost the Robertson and McGee fights. Check out mmadecisions and you'll see those fights were 50/50. Sobotta isn't elite by any standards but his striking is a bit more crisp, and probably better cardio. Saunders' guard game hasn't been a factor in his last 3 UFC bouts, maybe people are wising up to countering it. Saunders will be flying to Europe and Sobotta has (somewhat) home field advantage. I'd give a slight edge to Sobotta here but IMO its a coin flip and not 75/25 like you say. Believe me, I like Saunders because I want to see his 10p jiu jitsu succeed, but I wouldn't back him with cash. Good luck either way, I'll be on the opposite side for small.
    75/25 is absurd. I agree, i think Sabotta has improved since his return, and i also give him the slight advantage.

  19. #54
    Demonata
    Demonata's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 07-12-11
    Posts: 25,800
    Betpoints: 5421

    Quote Originally Posted by bjpenn85 View Post
    75/25 is absurd. I agree, i think Sabotta has improved since his return, and i also give him the slight advantage.
    Nope to me length and height mean a lot to me in ufc especially when you are better on your feet then the opponent. He has more of an arsenal standing with his training background too. Especially since I believe sabottas only chance is to take down Saunders. Saunders is becoming more of a favorite based on the betting line as well to reflect that. I also like the gym he trains at and I believe is one of the best gyms.

  20. #55
    bjpenn85
    bjpenn85's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 02-17-11
    Posts: 5,059
    Betpoints: 16650

    Quote Originally Posted by Demonata View Post
    Nope to me length and height mean a lot to me in ufc especially when you are better on your feet then the opponent. He has more of an arsenal standing with his training background too. Especially since I believe sabottas only chance is to take down Saunders. Saunders is becoming more of a favorite based on the betting line as well to reflect that. I also like the gym he trains at and I believe is one of the best gyms.
    Standing i will slightly favour saunders. I dont know if Sabotta can exploit saunders on the inside. I believe that sabotta is the better athlete, but will he be able to mix it up, take down saunders with regularity, im saying yes. If he cant, i dont think he will win, im almost sure he wont in fact. But...are you willing to put money on this? I dont think we have seen enough of Sabotta to know where he stand. We know he is better, that he both suddenly can KO people with liver kicks, and that he is quite adept on the ground. The way he tossed and subsequently jumped on Dalby in a quite aggressive and determined manner, i will say that its very high likelyhood of that happening in this fight. So how good is Saunder climbing back up if taken down in the middle of the cage? It can be a very close fight were judges have to decide the value of ground control vs sub attempts, i dont want my money in such an scenario you know. Cudos if this fight ends up loopsided, but this is a very clear NO BET

  21. #56
    Rich Benjamins
    Rich Benjamins's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 12-15-15
    Posts: 831
    Betpoints: 3698

    Good discussion. If we had detailed discussions like this on most fights, we'd all be making money.

    Quote Originally Posted by bjpenn85 View Post
    Standing i will slightly favour saunders. I dont know if Sabotta can exploit saunders on the inside. I believe that sabotta is the better athlete, but will he be able to mix it up, take down saunders with regularity, im saying yes. If he cant, i dont think he will win, im almost sure he wont in fact. But...are you willing to put money on this? I dont think we have seen enough of Sabotta to know where he stand. We know he is better, that he both suddenly can KO people with liver kicks, and that he is quite adept on the ground. The way he tossed and subsequently jumped on Dalby in a quite aggressive and determined manner, i will say that its very high likelyhood of that happening in this fight. So how good is Saunder climbing back up if taken down in the middle of the cage? It can be a very close fight were judges have to decide the value of ground control vs sub attempts, i dont want my money in such an scenario you know. Cudos if this fight ends up loopsided, but this is a very clear NO BET

  22. #57
    Rich Benjamins
    Rich Benjamins's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 12-15-15
    Posts: 831
    Betpoints: 3698

    Money is coming in on Sobotta. It's -110, -110 on the sports books I use. I got Sobotta at +105, +100, and -120.

    Quote Originally Posted by Demonata View Post
    Nope to me length and height mean a lot to me in ufc especially when you are better on your feet then the opponent. He has more of an arsenal standing with his training background too. Especially since I believe sabottas only chance is to take down Saunders. Saunders is becoming more of a favorite based on the betting line as well to reflect that. I also like the gym he trains at and I believe is one of the best gyms.

  23. #58
    Demonata
    Demonata's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 07-12-11
    Posts: 25,800
    Betpoints: 5421

    The fights and lines of this card are so lopsided that we have to find value in sabotta and saunders Lmfao

  24. #59
    firekillex
    firekillex's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 09-18-13
    Posts: 6,420

    Quote Originally Posted by Demonata View Post
    The fights and lines of this card are so lopsided that we have to find value in sabotta and saunders Lmfao
    what a sad/ true statement lol
    especially on a coin flip fight

  25. #60
    Shagdogy
    Shagdogy's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 06-16-10
    Posts: 3,564
    Betpoints: 5477

    I think the line is way off for Stasiak. Munhoz has a right leg and a left hand for striking. That's it. If he throws the right leg too much, he will get taken down. If he tries his guillotine (and it's a VERY good guillotine) I think Stasiak will be prepared for it and will be able to get top position. He is very strong and tight in top position and makes it count. For Munhoz, that leaves pretty much only his hands for him to win this fight, which is a tough spot to be in. I think he will hold the advantage over Stasiak on the feet for sure, but Stasiak's chin has never let up on him, and if he keeps it close and gets some time on the ground in scrambles and top position he can absolutely win a decision. 5-1 odds is not giving Stasiak proper respect IMO. I won't commit a lot, but he's definitely an underdog to consider.
    Points Awarded:

    Hugo de Naranja gave Shagdogy 2 Betpoint(s) for this post.


  26. #61
    Ty$
    Ty$'s Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 03-20-16
    Posts: 1,241
    Betpoints: 1275

    Like I said this card sucks. I'll be tailing someone this sat that's for sure cuz I couldn't even look up one fighter I'm so disinterested. -300 for Gus? Even that's too high.

  27. #62
    PaperTrail07
    MMA is the most pure sport
    PaperTrail07's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 08-29-08
    Posts: 20,423
    Betpoints: 585

    Value on Nicholson IMO

  28. #63
    PaperTrail07
    MMA is the most pure sport
    PaperTrail07's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 08-29-08
    Posts: 20,423
    Betpoints: 585

    Silva -170
    Nicholson +135
    Over 1.5 Volko Misha


    So far....thoughts?

  29. #64
    PaperTrail07
    MMA is the most pure sport
    PaperTrail07's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 08-29-08
    Posts: 20,423
    Betpoints: 585

    Don't see him losing....but it does seem a TAD off......-550 seems more correct....
    Quote Originally Posted by Shagdogy View Post
    I think the line is way off for Stasiak. Munhoz has a right leg and a left hand for striking. That's it. If he throws the right leg too much, he will get taken down. If he tries his guillotine (and it's a VERY good guillotine) I think Stasiak will be prepared for it and will be able to get top position. He is very strong and tight in top position and makes it count. For Munhoz, that leaves pretty much only his hands for him to win this fight, which is a tough spot to be in. I think he will hold the advantage over Stasiak on the feet for sure, but Stasiak's chin has never let up on him, and if he keeps it close and gets some time on the ground in scrambles and top position he can absolutely win a decision. 5-1 odds is not giving Stasiak proper respect IMO. I won't commit a lot, but he's definitely an underdog to consider.

  30. #65
    PaperTrail07
    MMA is the most pure sport
    PaperTrail07's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 08-29-08
    Posts: 20,423
    Betpoints: 585

    Musoke seems like the play too just scared he will get taken down...Bojan is really not that good....might have to go with Nico here...

  31. #66

  32. #67
    PaperTrail07
    MMA is the most pure sport
    PaperTrail07's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 08-29-08
    Posts: 20,423
    Betpoints: 585

    nice write up......

  33. #68
    JIBBBY
    JIBBBY's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 12-10-09
    Posts: 83,075
    Betpoints: 11874

    Copy and paste for easier viewing -

    205 lbs.: Alexander Gustafsson (17-4) vs. Glover Teixeira (26-5)
    Alright, first off, go read Jack Slack’s breakdown. It’s good. I’ll wait.
    Back? Okay, let’s go.
    You know what’s weird? Gustafsson is 2-3 in his last five while Teixeira is 4-1, but Gustafsson is the 3-to-1 favorite. And the oddsmakers are right.
    Teixeira’s striking, which seemed to finally be evolving from his one-size-fits-all counter right, seemed totally ineffective against Jared Cannonier, whose striking is much more basic and whose takedown defense doesn’t hold a candle to Gustafsson’s. Alex looked iffy against Jan Blachowicz last time out, admittedly, but not to the extent that Teixeira did.
    It’s possible that Glover’s performance was due to getting knocked out for the first time, of course, but he’s also 37 and has historically been easier to hurt than Gustafsson has. He doesn’t have an answer for Gustafsson’s jab and, dangerous as his top game is, Gustafsson’s movement and length will cripple Teixeira’s takedown game.
    I don’t see Gustafsson taking out Cormier or Jones in the rematch, but as long as the legs are still there, he thumps Teixeira with a counter for a first-round finish.
    Prediction: Gustafsson by first-round TKO

    205 lbs.: Misha Cirkunov (13-2) vs. Volkan Oezdemir (13-1)


    Volkan Oezdemir is in for it.
    The Swiss prospect may have the best win between them on paper, but his résumébegins and ends with one and a half decent rounds against the most listless Ovince St. Preux I’ve ever seen. Cirkunov, meanwhile, has consistently outclassed UFC-caliber opponents on the ground while developing a surprisingly dangerous striking game.
    In addition, Oezdemir gassed himself out on a stationary target, while Cirkunov met Ion Cutelaba’s insane pace head on and had enough left in the tank to submit him in the third round. Cirkunov has also never been stopped by strikes despite facing hitters like Cutelaba and Alex Nicholson, making it unlikely Oezdemir lands a finisher before getting crushed on the mat.
    As I mentioned in the betting guide, I’m afraid Cirkunov might hit a wall against the Gustafsson-Teixeira-Cormier-Jones quadrumvirate for stylistic reasons, but he handles pretty much anyone else at 205. He takes Oezdemir down and finishes him late in the first.
    Prediction: Cirkunov by first-round submission

    170 lbs.: Ben Saunders (21-7-2) vs. Peter Sobotta (16-5-1)


    Our boy Ben has won five of his last six, including one over a guy in Court McGee whom I had pegged as a terrible style matchup for him. Though people seem to be having more success navigating his guard, he did a great job of maintaining range against McGee in the early portion of the fight.
    It’s harder to get a bead on Sobotta, who has just one fight in the last eighteen month, but he’s another strong wrestler and showed some power in his hands against Nicolas Dalby. It’s been over a decade since he tapped, as well, making this another tough matchup for “Killa B.”
    Saunders can still win this with the right mindset. If he can do what he did in the first round against McGee, picking off the shorter man coming in, he can outpoint Sobotta. At the same time, he can’t languish in guard if the submission isn’t there, as Sobotta can do damage from the top. It’ll be close, but I say Saunders’ activity nicks it.
    Prediction: Saunders by split decision

    170 lbs.: Abdul Razak Alhassan (7-0) vs. Omari Akhmedov (16-4)


    Alhassan is in that delightful stage of his career where he thinks he’s invincible and, so far, he’s been right. Nobody’s been able to last more than 86 seconds against him and he fights like he’s personally offended that you’re still conscious.
    This will undoubtedly result in a learning experience at some point where he fights someone with a brick head and gasses himself out trying to crack it, but Akhmedov’s poor punch resistance and persistent cardio problems make him a perfect mark for “Judo Thunder’s” balls-to-the-wall bruising.
    I mean, I’m a Sergio Moraes fan to the bone, but if he knocks you out with punches, there is cause for concern.
    A perfectly disciplined Akhmedov could win this fight with powerful low kicks and regular takedowns. No matter how good the game plan, though, it’s not worth anything if he can’t survive the first few minutes of artillery. Alhassan catches him in an exchange for another highlight-reel finish.
    Prediction: Alhassan by first-round knockout

    185 lbs.: Jack Hermansson (14-3) vs. Alex Nicholson (7-3)


    I was absolutely convinced that Hermansson was going to turn Cezar Ferreira inside-out, but “Mutante” showed some new wrinkles in his game that completely defused Hermansson’s busy boxing.
    Luckily for the Swede, Nicholson’s striking attack is significantly less nuanced and doesn’t have the threat of a quality ground game to bolster it. “The Spartan” is a straightforward slugger going up against a more experienced opponent with better footwork and zero knockout losses on his record. I can’t picture him finding Hermansson’s chin with any consistency, even if his own durability will give him fifteen minutes with which to work.
    Nicholson is always dangerous, of course, and the threat of a one-hitter quitter will dangle over Hermansson’s head the entire time, but “The Joker” has the experience and boxing skill to tune Nicholson up for all three rounds.
    Prediction: Hermansson by first-round submission

    170 lbs.: Nordine Taleb (12-4) vs. Oliver Enkamp (7-0)


    If you’re wondering why this fight is on the main card, it’s because TAleb was originally booked to face everyone’s favorite MMA Viking, Emil Meek, before the latter pulled out with an injury about two weeks ago.
    Enkamp is, well, he’s not Meek. He’s a solid karateka with good kicks and the sort of charging flurries that Kyoji Horiguchi prefers, though not with the same kind of concussive force that the Krazy Bee product can produce. He’s also crafty on the ground, utilizing the same flexibility that makes him such a dangerous kicker to threaten chokes from odd angles.
    That said, Taleb is a hulking welterweight whose performance against the ultra-dangerous Santiago Ponzinibbio was easily the best of his career. He’s the stronger wrestler of the two and, if he can land those same sorts of low kicks that he did against Ponzinibbio, Enkamp’s mobility edge won’t last long.
    On short notice, what was already a round stylistic matchup becomes a nightmare for Enkamp. Taleb steadily overpowers him for a decision win.
    Prediction: Taleb by unanimous decision

  34. #69
    RussianMike
    RussianMike's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 03-20-10
    Posts: 292
    Betpoints: 807

    Another Euro Card, I'll have the usual

    As per usual, dropping some duckets across the board on any and every Euro fighter fighting a non-Euro to win by decision. System usually pays for itself with just one robbery decision.
    BTW works in Brasil as well.
    Points Awarded:

    PaperTrail07 gave RussianMike 2 Betpoint(s) for this post.


  35. #70
    PaperTrail07
    MMA is the most pure sport
    PaperTrail07's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 08-29-08
    Posts: 20,423
    Betpoints: 585

    Nice----have any #'s on previous cards.....no hassle just interested...
    Quote Originally Posted by RussianMike View Post
    As per usual, dropping some duckets across the board on any and every Euro fighter fighting a non-Euro to win by decision. System usually pays for itself with just one robbery decision.
    BTW works in Brasil as well.

First 12345 ... Last
Top