[Hugo de Naranja]

May 13 are you kidding me? See you guys next month... Geez....

You can always use the break to cap future events. I did a lot of tape study for the DJ vs. Reis, and Swanson vs. Lobov cards in the break before 210.

[JIBBBY]

You can always use the break to cap future events. I did a lot of tape study for the DJ vs. Reis, and Swanson vs. Lobov cards in the break before 210.

If I just gambled MMA only I would do that.. I cap 3 different sports daily (NBA, NHL and MLB).. I usually wait til the week before the card happens just because I like to read all the write ups and current fighter updates that come out then...

Hitting and capping the events early like you do Hugo you can get better value on opening lines, etc.. I can't knock it..

[Sanity Check]

4 UFC events in june and 5 in july.

That's going to be awesome & should make up for it.

[firekillex]

i dont like long waits like this usually but this card is super stacked so i dont mind the wait as much
solid break to cap the fights and study some film

[JIBBBY]

It certainly gives you alot of time to cap this event.. Should get this one right if anything else...

[firekillex]

really starting to like miocic at -120 odds... think he improved since the last fight and JDS has regressed from his plenty wars

also maia +400 decision prop could be juicy , not sure he finishes masvidal in this one i think he may control the positioning and ride a decision out , gotta look more into this scrap though

[JIBBBY]

really starting to like miocic at -120 odds... think he improved since the last fight and JDS has regressed from his plenty wars

also maia +400 decision prop could be juicy , not sure he finishes masvidal in this one i think he may control the positioning and ride a decision out , gotta look more into this scrap though

JDS is still the better boxer and does has good TD defense and wrestling. JDS might have the better chin also.. I kinda like JDS in this one again myself... I know he's struggled lately hit and miss but he's been fighting top guys in the division.. JDS is 33 years old and I don't think he is done and fully regressed just yet...

JDS did beat Stipe UN decision just a few years ago also... I think it's just a tough stylistic matchup for Stipe.. http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Junior-dos-Santos-17272

[firekillex]

definitely dont think he has a better chin, hes taking an unreal amount of damage in the last years
the last fight was basically a draw but he got the nod , he has regressed imo in that time and miocic has improved greatly in his boxing and angles

i think this fight miocic will surprise a lot of people , great scrap but i think miocic is a better version of todays JDS with the wrestling... sucks because JDS is one of my fav heavyweights in mma

[Hugo de Naranja]

definitely dont think he has a better chin, hes taking an unreal amount of damage in the last years
the last fight was basically a draw but he got the nod , he has regressed imo in that time and miocic has improved greatly in his boxing and angles

i think this fight miocic will surprise a lot of people , great scrap but i think miocic is a better version of todays JDS with the wrestling... sucks because JDS is one of my fav heavyweights in mma

I haven't watched a lot of Miocic's early fights. When has he gone to wrestling? Anytime recently?

[firekillex]

I was more saying hes like JDS with better wrestling
he used his wrestling very well against Hunt and he used more of his movement/angles to KO arlovski and werdum

against Overeem he didnt look his best but he showed his heart and how powerful his top game is


i think the fight will be like the last but Miocic will be a bit faster, and work at a higher rate / mix in a couple takedowns or clinch on the fence to tire JDS out and beat him up a bit more

[Hugo de Naranja]

Maia ML is up to (+110). I don't understand the line movement at all. I'm on him big at (-120).

[Sanity Check]

Maia ML is up to (+110). I don't understand the line movement at all. I'm on him big at (-120).

Jorge Masvidal has no amateur wrestling background, as far as I know.

People say he is a very good wrestler. He might be good enough to avoid being taken down by Maia.

Thats probably why.

[Hugo de Naranja]

Jorge Masvidal has no amateur wrestling background, as far as I know.

People say he is a very good wrestler. He might be good enough to avoid being taken down by Maia.

Thats probably why.

Maia has run through a gauntlet of WW contenders, some of whom had excellent TDD. I think he wins this one handily.

[firekillex]

Masvidal has great TDD but more against traditional wrestlers that shoot for double legs, Maia usually uses trips or knee tap/ single legs... dangerous fight for Maia because masvidal won't get tired and will throw big strikes but I like Maia with all the momentum especially at + money looking good

[Sanity Check]

Maia has run through a gauntlet of WW contenders, some of whom had excellent TDD. I think he wins this one handily.

Ryan LaFlare is the only decent wrestler Maia fought since losing to Rory MacDonald.

It was a 5 round fight and sherdog (lol) judges gave the 5th round 10-8 to LaFlare which could mean Maia gased out and LaFlare came close to finishing Maia.

LaFlare might not be one of the best wrestlers in the division as GSP, Kamaru Usman and Colby Covington could be better than him.

Also probably Maia's age. He's almost 40.

Masvidal has great TDD but more against traditional wrestlers that shoot for double legs, Maia usually uses trips or knee tap/ single legs... dangerous fight for Maia because masvidal won't get tired and will throw big strikes but I like Maia with all the momentum especially at + money looking good

Maia just uses basic wrestling for the most part.

There's some good breakdowns on the takedowns he uses, here:

http://cagecraft.net

[firekillex]

wrestling is all different , some people are great wrestlers in the division but use it more to stay standing up and only use it occassionally , perfect example is tyron woodley.... he could probably blast double leg 99% of the division but likes to stand up

Maia has beat some solid wrestlers in his day though... fitch, story, kim, laflare
lately his run has been against tall lanky strikers though in condit, brown and magny so theyve been solid matchups for him to get the guys on the ground.... thats why im liking the decision prop against Masvidal...

people are super super high on Masvidal but i think hes being a bit overhyped which is good for Maia backers here... hopefully we can get a maia win at + odds

then take a huge bet on Woodley Vs Maia title fight since i think thatll be a terrible terrible matchup for Maia especially like you said hes only getting older

[JIBBBY]

Maia ML is up to (+110). I don't understand the line movement at all. I'm on him big at (-120).

I was thinking Masvidal might even be a larger favorite actually.. Maia is always the dog in his fights.. Even the Oddsmakers don't give him alot of credit...

Masvidal is tough standing and Maia isn't getting any younger.. If Masvidal starts stuffing his take downs Maia will be done, if the fight goes into the deeper rounds I give Masvidal the advantage.. Masvidal looked tough in his last fight knocking out Cowboy Cerrone.. Masvidal is gonna be a tough out...http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Jorge-Masvidal-7688

Maia will have to get inside and time the early TD's like he does so well... Grab a single and dump Masvidal on this back early on and work his ground game.... Waiting for the Maia sub prop also.....

Gonna need see this from Maia -





And not this -

[Sanity Check]

Maia has beat some solid wrestlers in his day though... fitch, story, kim, laflare
lately his run has been against tall lanky strikers though in condit, brown and magny so theyve been solid matchups for him to get the guys on the ground.... thats why im liking the decision prop against Masvidal...

Maia beat good wrestlers like 5 years ago.

But wrestling isn't as dominant a style as it used to be.

Joe Warren, Brandon Halsey, Darrion Caldwell, Henry Cejudo, Sara McMann would have run through their divisions 5 years ago with their wrestling. Today its much easier to train counter wrestling to deal with that.

If you like Maia bet heavy on him.

I'm still not certain if I like him or Masvidal & could skip that match up.

[Hugo de Naranja]

I was thinking Masvidal might even be a larger favorite actually.. Maia is always the dog in his fights.. Even the Oddsmakers don't give him alot of credit...

Masvidal is tough standing and Maia isn't getting any younger.. If Masvidal starts stuffing his take downs Maia will be done, if the fight goes into the deeper rounds I give Masvidal the advantage.. Masvidal looked tough in his last fight knocking out Cowboy Cerrone.. Masvidal is gonna be a tough out...http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Jorge-Masvidal-7688

Maia will have to get inside and time the early TD's like he does so well... Grab a single and dump Masvidal on this back early on and work his ground game.... Waiting for the Maia sub prop also.....

Gonna need see this from Maia -





And not this -

The Maia line opened (-175) but the public has bet it into plus money so I think it's the public that doesn't hespect him. Also Sub prop is out but value is shit at (+180). I tossed .5u on Maia Decision (+449) to add to my ML play.

[firekillex]

will not bet heavy on Maia since its still a tough stylistic matchup , ill throw a wager on maia decision +400 or more then possibly a bit more at straight since hes + money now....

a ton of spots i like on this card to be honest hes like 4th on the totem pole

[JIBBBY]

All in on Maia until he loses.. DM hasn't let me down in years, gotta stick with my boy.....http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Demian-Maia-14637

[JIBBBY]

The Maia line opened (-175) but the public has bet it into plus money so I think it's the public that doesn't hespect him. Also Sub prop is out but value is shit at (+180). I tossed .5u on Maia Decision (+449) to add to my ML play.

Yep public bet it down.. I'll sit on that line for a while as it may still go down even further...

Sub prop odds are garbage.. Was hoping for +250 or so....

I just wanna know if Demian Maia will finally get a title shot if he does beat Masvidal?

[firekillex]

hell 100% get a title shot if he wins imo

this is his last stand/shot another reason why i like him to win ... this is basically his title shot right now

masvidal still has a while in his career to fight, i think hed be better at 155 still though for some reason

[bjpenn85]

hell 100% get a title shot if he wins imo

this is his last stand/shot another reason why i like him to win ... this is basically his title shot right now



masvidal still has a while in his career to fight, i think hed be better at 155 still though for some reason

Only thing that sucks for maia backers is that his takedowns are so sloppy after round 2. Against mcdonald he lost. This can be a similar fight. Masvidal has better tdd than both brown and carlos and is more athletic, both of those guys are non-atheltic types that has defied the odds and become world class fighters because of their tuf mentality, not because of speed and all other stuff that goes into being athletic. Masvidal also, is experienced, very experienced, so hes that guy like whittaker who actually has a shot to stop maia without getting submitted. + he also has understod that he he needs to load up on his punches, old masvidal would have lost this fight, new masvidal is dangerous. But on the flip side, when have you ever seen anybody stop maias tdd? Never, it just doesnt happen. Maias takedowns they come, like it or not. he chain wrestles like the absolute best wrestlers, like nurmagomedov.And if maia will submits someone, regardless of how savy you are on the ground, he may do so. So for every argument you have in favour of maia its an equal argument against. But the all things considered, you have to go for maia, but only slightly, and am not sure betting on these type of insanely hard matchups are what win you money longterm.

[firekillex]

you can debate any side of any fight in the end of things.... Maia does have some great takedowns that turn into some of the worst most predictable shots if he starts to gas and cannot land them so its tough
but at + money and all the momentum hes had lately without taking any damage ill take Maia and not think twice about it

i think Masvidal is being overhyped over his win against cerronne imo , Maia is a completely different style then Cerrone and cowboy has been known to get hit by solid boxers plus he was rocked in the Brown fight and came back to quick imo.... Masvidal isnt top 5 material at 170 and Maia has shown he can be / is

[Sanity Check]

[bjpenn85]

Well, forget what i said. Bet Maia...

[GunShard]

All in on Maia until he loses.. DM hasn't let me down in years, gotta stick with my boy.....http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Demian-Maia-14637

Maia is one of three fighters that we should bet until they lose their winning streak. The other two fighters that are on a winning streak are Max Holloway and Tony Ferguson.

[JIBBBY]

Only thing that sucks for maia backers is that his takedowns are so sloppy after round 2. Against mcdonald he lost. This can be a similar fight. Masvidal has better tdd than both brown and carlos and is more athletic, both of those guys are non-atheltic types that has defied the odds and become world class fighters because of their tuf mentality, not because of speed and all other stuff that goes into being athletic. Masvidal also, is experienced, very experienced, so hes that guy like whittaker who actually has a shot to stop maia without getting submitted. + he also has understod that he he needs to load up on his punches, old masvidal would have lost this fight, new masvidal is dangerous. But on the flip side, when have you ever seen anybody stop maias tdd? Never, it just doesnt happen. Maias takedowns they come, like it or not. he chain wrestles like the absolute best wrestlers, like nurmagomedov.And if maia will submits someone, regardless of how savy you are on the ground, he may do so. So for every argument you have in favour of maia its an equal argument against. But the all things considered, you have to go for maia, but only slightly, and am not sure betting on these type of insanely hard matchups are what win you money longterm.

Maia is basically a 2 round fighter. He can stretch it to 3 maybe 4 rounds before he is completely gassed, TD's start failing and then he starts flopping on his back to rest.. So I think it's important Maia gets Masvidal down and works in a submission early on.. Maia is best when he takes the back and can lock in a choke....





Gunnar

[Hugo de Naranja]

Yeah I think if Maia makes it to the third round he will lose the round. Hoping for Maia by Sub or (29-28 x3) Maia.

[JIBBBY]

Masvidal better show better td defense then this against Maia.. Lol... Covington schooling Masvidal and getting those singles with ease.. That's Maia's specialty...

[bjpenn85]

Maia is basically a 2 round fighter. He can stretch it to 3 maybe 4 rounds before he is completely gassed, TD's start failing and then he starts flopping on his back to rest.. So I think it's important Maia gets Masvidal down and works in a submission early on.. Maia is best when he takes the back and can lock in a choke....







Gunnar

Against laflare he didnt gass before round 5. So why does he now gass out after 2? It doesnt make sense, but its true, unfortunately. If it wasnt for the gasstank. But he is 40 almost, that may be stuff that vanish after a while.Although marathon runners may be really old, the explosive strength on has to spend in a fight isnt quite the same. Or, mmaybe he just trained a whole lot more for that 25 minute fight.

[firekillex]

id take 0% stock into a play wrestling match lol ... literally means nothing

but i agree hugo thats why ill be rolling with Maia decision prop, i think he can smother masivdal first 2 rounds then we just gotta make sure he can survive that 3rd... if he looks to gassed possibly live bet masvidal after round 2

[firekillex]

shooting takedowns and getting stuffed takes a ton off your gas tank
rewatch maia vs rory macdonald
or the 3rd round vs matt brown


maia doesnt have the best takedown accuracy at 33% but he chains it together well and if he gets you down hes winning that round usually or subbing you

[JIBBBY]

Against laflare he didnt gass before round 5. So why does he now gass out after 2? It doesnt make sense, but its true, unfortunately. If it wasnt for the gasstank. But he is 40 almost, that may be stuff that vanish after a while.Although marathon runners may be really old, the explosive strength on has to spend in a fight isnt quite the same. Or, mmaybe he just trained a whole lot more for that 25 minute fight.

You are right BJ, Maia did go 5 with LaFlare a couple years ago and won that fight by Unanimous decision.. You are right he didn't gas badly until that last 5th round.. If I remember that fight correctly Maia really paced himself well and didn't have to grind and work very hard for take downs round after round..

Yep Maia is 40 now so it all depends how hard Maia works for the take downs early on in the fight.. Grappling exchanges, clinch grinds, etc.. I just think Maia is best in the early rounds when he is fresh as the take downs will come much easier for him..

This is only a 3 round fight with Masvidal so I think Maia will be ok and won't gas out.. Late 3rd round could be a concern but that's it... As fire mentioned like in the 3rd rounds in the Brown and Rory Mac fights..

http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Demian-Maia-14637