[TPowell]

I'm still deciding on basically all of the close fights on this card. I have no clue on the roundtree, Ramos, and Trujillo fights. Think I'm set on taking morono over price. The guy is a warrior who pushes forward and is tough to finish. He's strong in the later rounds and I think this fight should get there. He's at home in Texas which could help on the cards. I played him by decision at +325 and in round 3 at +1000. I have a suspicion that price will gas late in this fight and morono will put the pedal to the floor. Both guys like to ugly the fight up and aren't technical on the feet but have power. Both guys are solid on the ground as well. I just think morono out works him. Will try to do more digging on the 3 fights I mentioned tomorrow

[TPowell]

Looking at this Vick/Trujillo fight now. I thought Vick would be able to land on him with that long jab with how short Trujillo is and I think Vick is better on the ground for sure plus the cardio edge due to Trujillo gassing after a round most of the time. Vick's striking defense just isn't very good at all. The guy was dropped TWICE in the first round by NICK HEIN. Hein doesn't have much power in his boxing, Matthews and Franca were more grapplers, and while Lazaro is a very good boxer, he has zero power and fades over time. This fight is very tough to call. Listening to some interviews now from both guys. I really think Trujillo has a good shot to win this fight by TKO but the line is a dead pick. I'll probably toss some money on Trujillo ITD (+198 and climbing) or maybe Round 1 at +350.

[TPowell]

Trujillo was supposed to fight Evan Dunham, a southpaw with a fantastic overall game but a weakness as far as chin/durability to the body go. One would think he was training knowing that he needed to finish him on the feet to win the fight. Vick was scheduled to fight Johnny Case who is tough to finish on the feet but has some shaky grappling on the mat. A little too inactive on the feet for my tastes as well. To be honest, I'm not sure the opponent change for Trujillo did anything but make him a little more confident. Dunham is an all-around best while Vick has a lot of holes in his striking defense and has that tall man defense for sure. Dunham's reach is almost identical to Trujillo's though which is VERY short for this division. Vick has 6 inches of reach on Trujillo which is a massive deal but I expect Trujillo to come charging in to the pocket and try to make it a firefight. Vick will have to counter-strike and move to survive. He struggled a ton against Hein like I mentioned and got dropped twice in the first round. Funny enough, Hein's reach is 4 inches SHORTER than even Abel Trujillo's. The game-plan to win this fight is the Hein plan and Trujillo certainly packs a bigger punch. Hein is the more technical guy but I doubt it matters as hittable as Trujillo is. Trujillo turned to being a vegan at the start of 2016 and his gas tank looked better in his only 3 round fighter since that change. He talks about constantly being on pre and post workouts before and now he doesn't feel the need to use them. Feels like he gets that "pump" much later in fights. Trujillo's offensive wrestling is actually pretty decent and that could come into play if he has really improved his gas tank.

[JIBBBY]

Isn't Vegas Dave broke after betting $1 million on Tate against Nunes? What an ignorant bet that was.

Right.. Lol... These big wig gambling characters I always get a good laugh at.. Isn't that Joshknows brother?

[Rich Benjamins]

There are a few favorites on this card that I think are locks. Those are: Skelly, Grasso, and the over on Torres/Rawlings.

Those 3 bets are almost sure to come in, they should be around -800, or at least -500.

Then there's Hamilton who is a good bet. He's not a reliable heavyweight but he's against a light heavyweight that didn't look good on TUF. Hamilton is a decent fighter, he just looked bad against Ngannou, which is nothing to be ashamed about.

Andrade looks good to win, but that's at -500, a lot of juice there, not much edge.

[PaperTrail07]

Time to CAP this event....

[PaperTrail07]

Fade=JOLLY....skills are non-existent....Andrade -whatever....its free $......Hamilton will be too much +60LBS as well........cruise control BOYS....

[Hugo de Naranja]

Stupid bitchh Bec Rawlings misses weight by 1.5 pounds

[rsynweap84]

Stupid bitchh Bec Rawlings misses weight by 1.5 pounds

Her boobs and ass weigh too much...

[Rich Benjamins]

She said in her interview 115 is very hard for her to make, she wants a 125 lb division. She also said Torres hits like a "pussy".

Stupid bitchh Bec Rawlings misses weight by 1.5 pounds

[Hugo de Naranja]

Looking at this Vick/Trujillo fight now. I thought Vick would be able to land on him with that long jab with how short Trujillo is and I think Vick is better on the ground for sure plus the cardio edge due to Trujillo gassing after a round most of the time. Vick's striking defense just isn't very good at all. The guy was dropped TWICE in the first round by NICK HEIN. Hein doesn't have much power in his boxing, Matthews and Franca were more grapplers, and while Lazaro is a very good boxer, he has zero power and fades over time. This fight is very tough to call. Listening to some interviews now from both guys. I really think Trujillo has a good shot to win this fight by TKO but the line is a dead pick. I'll probably toss some money on Trujillo ITD (+198 and climbing) or maybe Round 1 at +350.

What's crazy is that Hein only threw six total strikes in the round where he knocked Vick down twice. I think Trujillo gets an early finish here

[Hugo de Naranja]

Her boobs and ass weigh too much...

I guess so

[Hugo de Naranja]

She said in her interview 115 is very hard for her to make, she wants a 125 lb division. She also said Torres hits like a "pussy".

Yeah I saw that too. Hopefully Torres 30-27s her

[TPowell]

She said in her interview 115 is very hard for her to make, she wants a 125 lb division. She also said Torres hits like a "pussy".

Only thing she can say. She's slow as hell and will get pieced up on the feet

[TPowell]

Fade=JOLLY....skills are non-existent....Andrade -whatever....its free $......Hamilton will be too much +60LBS as well........cruise control BOYS....

I'm convinced Jolly didn't have anything resembling MMA skills in his last fight but that was in Sep 2015. He put in a couple months at ATT and I think his offensive wrestling was his strength (even though he wasn't very good at all) in his UFC debut. I can't touch this one. I'll take Roundtree in Toutmaster because I have to make a pick and I hate the fact that Jolly has ZERO MMA background really

[Rich Benjamins]

Yeah I saw that too. Hopefully Torres 30-27s her

Yea, thats' why I'm betting the over pretty big. If Torres can't hit hard, and pieces up Rawlings on the feet, then it's going to a decision.

[Hugo de Naranja]

Grasso -3.5 (-130) is gold

[Hugo de Naranja]

I'm still deciding on basically all of the close fights on this card. I have no clue on the roundtree, Ramos, and Trujillo fights. Think I'm set on taking morono over price. The guy is a warrior who pushes forward and is tough to finish. He's strong in the later rounds and I think this fight should get there. He's at home in Texas which could help on the cards. I played him by decision at +325 and in round 3 at +1000. I have a suspicion that price will gas late in this fight and morono will put the pedal to the floor. Both guys like to ugly the fight up and aren't technical on the feet but have power. Both guys are solid on the ground as well. I just think morono out works him. Will try to do more digging on the 3 fights I mentioned tomorrow

I see the fight similarly. I wish this fight was live-bettable since I think Morono will lose Round 1

[PaperTrail07]

Jolly is a guy that had slid by with NATURAL skill....not saying he has a chance his last fight, but he is just not UFC level IMO...

I'm convinced Jolly didn't have anything resembling MMA skills in his last fight but that was in Sep 2015. He put in a couple months at ATT and I think his offensive wrestling was his strength (even though he wasn't very good at all) in his UFC debut. I can't touch this one. I'll take Roundtree in Toutmaster because I have to make a pick and I hate the fact that Jolly has ZERO MMA background really

[PaperTrail07]

Trujillo is a physical beast...but not sure if his skill set is the one needed to beat Vick....his only losses are to Khabib and TF......so Going with Kill@@ personally...KO power to say the least...

[Rich Benjamins]

Grasso -3.5 (-130) is gold

That's definitely an idea. The only risk is if Herrig is able to get Grasso down and get top position and win a round that way. But Herrig didn't wrestle PVZ very well and I think Grasso is probably a better grappler than PVZ. I'm surprised that a lot of people seem to be taking Herrig.

[PaperTrail07]

I BELIEVE this is a finish or 30-27 around the boards...

10:00PM

1542 Andrade points handicap

-5½ -245

[PaperTrail07]

Rawlings didn't make weight....

[Hugo de Naranja]

I BELIEVE this is a finish or 30-27 around the boards...

10:00PM

1542 Andrade points handicap

-5½ -245

This should be 3.5. An error by 5Ds

[Hugo de Naranja]

Also love Torres -3.5 (+150)

[Hugo de Naranja]

That's definitely an idea. The only risk is if Herrig is able to get Grasso down and get top position and win a round that way. But Herrig didn't wrestle PVZ very well and I think Grasso is probably a better grappler than PVZ. I'm surprised that a lot of people seem to be taking Herrig.

I think if Herrig doesn't get an early sub, she will get pieced up. 30-26 Grasso

[Rich Benjamins]

I just watched Herrig vs Curran. I noticed Herrig bounced around a bit at the beginning, looking to just keep it standing. It was only when Curran rushed in that Herrig got the takedown. That makes me more confident with Grasso. If Herrig looks to spar with Grasso, she'll get beatup. Hopefully that's what will happen and she won't immediately push Grasso against the fence.

[Rich Benjamins]

This should be 3.5. An error by 5Ds

I don't think that's an error by 5Ds. I've never seen that before, but when a fighter is that big of a favorite, she needs at least two 30-27 rounds for this to win. If the judge give only one 30-27 and two 29-28s, this bet loses.

[Hugo de Naranja]

I just watched Herrig vs Curran. I noticed Herrig bounced around a bit at the beginning, looking to just keep it standing. It was only when Curran rushed in that Herrig got the takedown. That makes me more confident with Grasso. If Herrig looks to spar with Grasso, she'll get beatup. Hopefully that's what will happen and she won't immediately push Grasso against the fence.

Grasso does sort of do the Tyron Woodley thing where she purposely puts her back to the fence looking to counter. That said, she should have no trouble keeping things on the feet and absolutely piecing Herrig up in the standup.

[Hugo de Naranja]

I don't think that's an error by 5Ds. I've never seen that before, but when a fighter is that big of a favorite, she needs at least two 30-27 rounds for this to win. If the judge give only one 30-27 and two 29-28s, this bet loses.

For 3 round fights I've always seen it as -3.5, even in the case of (-1500) favorites.

[Rich Benjamins]

yes, I agree. It's interesting that here, a lot of MMA Junkie staff are taking Herrig: http://mmajunkie.com/2017/02/ufc-fig...staffers-agree

Also, Robin Black is taking Herrig. Not that these guys are capping geniuses but it's a little questionable.

Grasso does sort of do the Tyron Woodley thing where she purposely puts her back to the fence looking to counter. That said, she should have no trouble keeping things on the feet and absolutely piecing Herrig up in the standup.

[Hugo de Naranja]

Here's a trend for Anthony Hamilton's UFC career: he's never lost to anyone smaller and never beat anyone bigger as far as I can remember. He will have a huge size advantage against Fortuna, somewhere around 50 pounds. Hamilton has also alternated wins and losses throughout his seven-fight UFC career. His last fight was a loss to top prospect Francis Ngannou.

[Rich Benjamins]

OK, then it's probably a mistake then.

For 3 round fights I've always seen it as -3.5, even in the case of (-1500) favorites.

[TPowell]

No mistake, that line is still -5.5 and moving down. I thought about taking Hill +5.5 at +175 but I already have Andrade ITD at -105 LOL

[Sanity Check]

She said in her interview 115 is very hard for her to make, she wants a 125 lb division. She also said Torres hits like a "pussy".

Bec Rawlings and Tecia Torres fought on the ultimate fighter.



Think that's where that comes from.

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