[THE_LOCKSMITH]

UFC on FOX 8:00 p.m. ET
Valentina Shevchenko vs Julianna Pena
Donald Cerrone vs Jorge Masvidal
Andrei Arlovski vs Francis Ngannou
Alex Caceres vs Jason Knight

Fox Sports 1, 5:00 p.m. ET
Nate Marquardt vs Sam Alvey
Raphael Assuncao vs Aljamain Sterling
Bobby Nash vs Li Jingliang
Luis Henrique da Silva vs Jordan Johnson
Eric Spicely vs Alessio Di Chirico
John Phillips vs Marcos Rogerio de Lima

UFC Fight Pass 4:00 p.m. ET
Eric Shelton vs Alexandre Pantoja
JC Cottrell vs Jason Gonzalez

[UncleChael]

If you have a bet against Valentina Shevchenko I got some BAD NEWS for you....

[JC2008]

Loving the under 1.5 (-175) in the Arvlovski/Ngannou fight. I'll be parlaying Ngannou as I think he will splatter Arvlovski dead-cold in the first round. If you like Cerrone, you can parlay those two right around even odds. Although maybe Masvidal outworks him to a decision. Hard to say.

[Sanity Check]

Tough card to call.

[Hugo de Naranja]

Loving the under 1.5 (-175) in the Arvlovski/Ngannou fight. I'll be parlaying Ngannou as I think he will splatter Arvlovski dead-cold in the first round. If you like Cerrone, you can parlay those two right around even odds. Although maybe Masvidal outworks him to a decision. Hard to say.

Got Cerrone at (-115) with the early line movement. Missed out on (+115) by seconds. I like your idea here though JC

[Hugo de Naranja]

If you have a bet against Valentina Shevchenko I got some BAD NEWS for you....

Is this a quote from Valentina or do you plan on betting her?

[UncleChael]

Is this a quote from Valentina or do you plan on betting her?

I'll tell you after the fight.

[Hugo de Naranja]

I'll tell you after the fight.

[JC2008]

Got Cerrone at (-115) with the early line movement. Missed out on (+115) by seconds. I like your idea here though JC

Just for clarity's sake, I will be parlaying Ngannou's ML at +400, with different boxing fights this weekend as we have a great Showtime and HBO Boxing After Dark card on. Mikey Garcia -225/Ngannou -400, etc. I will dabble with the under 1.5 rounds but probably take him in round 2 or 3 as a hedge. Either way, I think Ngannou crushes him. Of course... Now that I posted these play(s), Arvlovsi will probably win a decision lol.

Oh agreed, and Garcia's inactivity.. I'll be sprinkling on the draw in this fight and the Frampton/Santa Cruz rematch, as well as the Vargas/Berchelt fight on HBO. Gonna be a great weekend of fights!

[rsynweap84]

I'll tell you after the fight.

I'll tell ya' right now, if this girl wins and earns a five rounder with Nunes, she might just take the title.

This girl got the crap knocked out of her for two rounds by Nunes the last time they fought, and lost. However, thats only because Nunes won two rounds, and was lucky the third round was the last, otherwise she woulda been needin' some smellin' salts. This girl is tough and durable, exceptional Muay Thai, unimpressive ground work but enough to stay safe from submissions. She don't look too big but she is pretty damn strong. She also has some very nasty trips, and even nastier kicks. I been waitin' to see Schevchenko get a crack at Nunes since their last fight, Holly v Miesha. Also she dismantled Holly at her own game so yea, she's no slouch.

[Hugo de Naranja]

Just for clarity's sake, I will be parlaying Ngannou's ML at +400, with different boxing fights this weekend as we have a great Showtime and HBO Boxing After Dark card on. Mikey Garcia -225/Ngannou -400, etc. I will dabble with the under 1.5 rounds but probably take him in round 2 or 3 as a hedge. Either way, I think Ngannou crushes him. Of course... Now that I posted these play(s), Arvlovsi will probably win a decision lol.

I like Ngannou despite his greenness but I really do think this is a good matchup for him. On a sidenote, I saw Garcia's opponent, Dejan Zlaticanin, fight live not long ago. Kid is no joke and I've got a small bet on him at (+200).

[Hugo de Naranja]

I'll tell ya' right now, if this girl wins and earns a five rounder with Nunes, she might just take the title.

This girl got the crap knocked out of her for two rounds by Nunes the last time they fought, and lost. However, thats only because Nunes won two rounds, and was lucky the third round was the last, otherwise she woulda been needin' some smellin' salts. This girl is tough and durable, exceptional Muay Thai, unimpressive ground work but enough to stay safe from submissions. She don't look too big but she is pretty damn strong. She also has some very nasty trips, and even nastier kicks. I been waitin' to see Schevchenko get a crack at Nunes since their last fight, Holly v Miesha. Also she dismantled Holly at her own game so yea, she's no slouch.

She dead beat Joanna Jedrzejczyk 3 times in Muay Thai and owns big technical advantages. Julianna is bigger but not technical at all (a la Ronda). She could still win this but I like Bullet at (+100) for a small bet since it's still a women's bantamweight fight and that division is like men's heavyweight, anything can happen.

[UncleChael]

I'll tell ya' right now, if this girl wins and earns a five rounder with Nunes, she might just take the title.

This girl got the crap knocked out of her for two rounds by Nunes the last time they fought, and lost. However, thats only because Nunes won two rounds, and was lucky the third round was the last, otherwise she woulda been needin' some smellin' salts. This girl is tough and durable, exceptional Muay Thai, unimpressive ground work but enough to stay safe from submissions. She don't look too big but she is pretty damn strong. She also has some very nasty trips, and even nastier kicks. I been waitin' to see Schevchenko get a crack at Nunes since their last fight, Holly v Miesha. Also she dismantled Holly at her own game so yea, she's no slouch.

Amen brother, let's fukking get ittttttttttttttttttttttttttttt

[Hugo de Naranja]

So far I'm four for four lifetime on Sam Alvey fights. Hoping I can keep up that trend here.

[turbozed]

So far I'm four for four lifetime on Sam Alvey fights. Hoping I can keep up that trend here.

You on Nate or Sam this one? I'm going to watch their fights later and see if there's an angle there.

[Rich Benjamins]

If you have a bet against Valentina Shevchenko I got some BAD NEWS for you....

Shevchenko has good timing and counters. The question is, will Pena be able to get behind the punches and take her down? I think yes. If you watch Shev's fight vs Nunes, her takedown defense isn't very good.

[Rich Benjamins]

So far I'm four for four lifetime on Sam Alvey fights. Hoping I can keep up that trend here.

Did you bet on Brunson against Alvey?

[Hugo de Naranja]

You on Nate or Sam this one? I'm going to watch their fights later and see if there's an angle there.

Sam.

[Hugo de Naranja]

Did you bet on Brunson against Alvey?

That fight happened before I started following MMA. I picked Theodorou over Alvey and then Alvey over Casey, Spicely, and Nicholson. That is the favorite in each bout but I hit some solid props, especially on the Casey fight.

[Rich Benjamins]

That fight happened before I started following MMA. I picked Theodorou over Alvey and then Alvey over Casey, Spicely, and Nicholson. That is the favorite in each bout but I hit some solid props, especially on the Casey fight.

Excellent. And you're picking Sam again this time. I've heard conflicting views. Some same Nate is better everywhere than Sam. Nate is more active, and a better grappler. Nate can win a decision. That's not my view. I like Sam because he seems to be able to read his opponents well, knows what to do to win. He's also a more accurate striker than Nate.

[Hugo de Naranja]

Excellent. And you're picking Sam again this time. I've heard conflicting views. Some same Nate is better everywhere than Sam. Nate is more active, and a better grappler. Nate can win a decision. That's not my view. I like Sam because he seems to be able to read his opponents well, knows what to do to win. He's also a more accurate striker than Nate.

Yeah man. People were screaming for Nate to retire before he KO'ed Tamdan. Alvey has a really solid chin and good TDD. Think he KOs Marquardt stiff here but it might be really boring until then, as they both look to counter each other. Both guys are low volume too.

[JC2008]

This fight is really a toss-up for me... For once, I think I will stay away from the Alvey KO/TKO/DQ prop and consider him by decision, but again, MMA judging is stupid at times and NM getting the nod wouldn't shock me. Not a fight I will be investing too much in, either way but we'll see what the round odds are like closer to Saturday, etc.

[Hugo de Naranja]

This fight is really a toss-up for me... For once, I think I will stay away from the Alvey KO/TKO/DQ prop and consider him by decision, but again, MMA judging is stupid at times and NM getting the nod wouldn't shock me. Not a fight I will be investing too much in, either way but we'll see what the round odds are like closer to Saturday, etc.

He did win his last fight by decision so that might be worth a look.

[JC2008]

He did win his last fight by decision so that might be worth a look.

I know... I took the ML in his last fight against Nicholson because the odds weren't too crazy, and I figured he wouldn't keep on his mad streak of KO'ing everybody in sight.

[JIBBBY]

Liking Jorge Masvidal ever so slightly if he can keep those Cowboy kicks in check.. .. Cowboy is a kicker Masvidal is not

Masvidal is the superior boxer and probably just as good on the ground.. Cowboy does have more tools in the shed though... That's a good fight regardless...

[JIBBBY]

OG Pit Bull Arlovski is gonna get dropped.. Take the under, 1st round finish prop...

That's a mean black man he is facing!!

http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Francis-Ngannou-152341

[Hugo de Naranja]

Liking Jorge Masvidal ever so slightly if he can keep those Cowboy kicks in check.. .. Cowboy is a kicker Masvidal is not

Masvidal is the superior boxer and probably just as good on the ground.. Cowboy does have more tools in the shed though... That's a good fight regardless...

FOTN perhaps

[JIBBBY]

Sam Alvey to slow, if Nate fights smart and keeps his distance he wins easily by UN decision..

[Hugo de Naranja]

OG Pit Bull Arlovski is gonna get dropped.. Take the under, 1st round KO prop...

That's a mean black man he is facing!!

http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Francis-Ngannou-152341

Jibby Rule #2: ABB - Always Bet Black

[Hugo de Naranja]

Sam Alvey to slow, if Nate fights smart and keeps his distance he wins easily by UN decision..

Can't take power punches anymore. His offense is equally low output. He could maybe win a decision by leg kicking and running away Theodorou style

[JIBBBY]

FOTN perhaps

Could be FOTN indeed..

I'm only picking Masvidal because he's fighting with a purpose now, upped his output.. Looked good in his last 2 fights.. http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Jorge-Masvidal-7688

Masvidal is impossible to finish so maybe that prop "Masvidal cards no action" is the call depending on the odds when it comes out.... I know you like those props Hugo...

[Hugo de Naranja]

Could be FOTN indeed..

I'm only picking Masvidal because he's fighting with a purpose now, upped his output.. Looked good in his last 2 fights.. http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Jorge-Masvidal-7688

Masvidal is impossible to finish so maybe that prop "Masvidal cards no action" is the call depending on the odds when it comes out.... I know you like those props Hugo...

I do but I'm on the other side here. You'll probably be able to get Masvidal SNA at (+180) or better.

[JIBBBY]

Can't take power punches anymore. His offense is equally low output. He could maybe win a decision by leg kicking and running away Theodorou style

I agree Nate's chin is almost shot but you still need to close the distance to hit it..

Nate is pretty light on his feet where Sam Alvey is slow and planted in cement..

Sam Alvey only knocks out people when they come forward and trade with him.. Nate won't do that..



He does have some pop..

[Hugo de Naranja]

I agree Nate's chin is almost shot but you still need to close the distance to hit it..

Nate is pretty light on his feet where Sam Alvey is slow and planted in cement.. Don't forget Nate "the once Great" has a bit of wrestling in his back pocket and can go for a take down if all else fails and maybe get it against Alvey..

Sam Alvey only knocks out people when they come forward and trade with him.. Nate won't do that..

I see that angle but I still think Alvey takes it. I guess we'll see. If the fight makes it to the bell it will probably be awful lol.

[JIBBBY]

I see that angle but I still think Alvey takes it. I guess we'll see. If the fight makes it to the bell it will probably be awful lol.

I edited my post.. Don't think Nate will shoot for a take down in this fight.. He's basically a stand up fighter these days.. Sammy has worked on his TD defense too.

Yes Alvey has a punchers chance and I may elect to use that KO prop as a hedge, we'll see.. I haven't even begun to cap this event yet..

Maybe Nate by UN decision hedge with Alvey KO.. Early thoughts.. Nate did drop T-wood though...

Nate doesn't go to decision very often but this fight I do think he will try to keep distance..http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Nate-Marquardt-1712