[Hugo de Naranja]

Neil "The Black Beast" Magny. I'll be on him too Jibs

[JIBBBY]

Neil "The Black Beast" Magny. I'll be on him too Jibs

Yep, it's not that I'm so high on Magny but JH just looks like crap in fights lately... He has no head movement and is a punching bag.. Can't even land take downs anymore.. Granted he's been facing top fighters but still...

With that being said Hendricks always has a punchers chance.. He does hit hard and has KO power.. So Magny better use his length, reach and quickness to stay out of range and avoid the big shots.. Magny doesn't exactly have a granite chin last I checked... Solid chin though.. Hard to knock Magny out cold..

[Unwritten Law]

Liking this card a lot and with Nunes supposedly under the weather, the odds haven't changed much based off that story. I figured it would factor somewhat of a line movement and we don't really know the severity of it. I hate when they reveal their real health issues after the fact. Then again they always say it was a huge payday they couldn't refuse but whatever.

I really feel Ronda will be fully ready, mentally and physically. She seems to be in near peak condition based off that photo so it seems that she will be prepared to ground Nunes and keep her there. Ronda knows she must take this fight to the ground and work her BJJ skills. Nunes looked absolutely flawless with her victory vs Miesha. When i look back at the tape, Miesha didn't seem all there mentally and she may had some out of the ring issues and somehow lost her fire and desire in the cage. Seeing her take deep breaths before the fight I can tell she didn't want to be in that ring but just had to focus as best as she could that night. Things didn't change much when she fought Pennington and then finally retired. Lean: ROUSEY.

Also feel Johny PIGG RIGG is almost on his way out and possibly Bellator will be his next destination after he loses this one or whenever his contract is done. Don't feel his heart is in this sport where it once was, sort of like Miesha. He tasted gold, maybe been robbed vs GSP, and has food fetish he can't avoid causing him to miss weight. Can't believe it's been nearly 4 years since he's KO his opponent. It just didn't seem that long ago he was knocking people out every other fight. With Neil at nearly even odds, this has to be the play despite being destroyed against a very tough Lorenz Larkin. Lean: MAGNY.

Others I'm leaning are: GARBRANDT, DONG HYUN KIM, SMOLKA, VETTORI.

[Hugo de Naranja]

Liking this card a lot and with Nunes supposedly under the weather, the odds haven't changed much based off that story. I figured it would factor somewhat of a line movement and we don't really know the severity of it. I hate when they reveal their real health issues after the fact. Then again they always say it was a huge payday they couldn't refuse but whatever.

I really feel Ronda will be fully ready, mentally and physically. She seems to be in near peak condition based off that photo so it seems that she will be prepared to ground Nunes and keep her there. Ronda knows she must take this fight to the ground and work her BJJ skills. Nunes looked absolutely flawless with her victory vs Miesha. When i look back at the tape, Miesha didn't seem all there mentally and she may had some out of the ring issues and somehow lost her fire and desire in the cage. Seeing her take deep breaths before the fight I can tell she didn't want to be in that ring but just had to focus as best as she could that night. Things didn't change much when she fought Pennington and then finally retired. Lean: ROUSEY.

Also feel Johny PIGG RIGG is almost on his way out and possibly Bellator will be his next destination after he loses this one or whenever his contract is done. Don't feel his heart is in this sport where it once was, sort of like Miesha. He tasted gold, maybe been robbed vs GSP, and has food fetish he can't avoid causing him to miss weight. Can't believe it's been nearly 4 years since he's KO his opponent. It just didn't seem that long ago he was knocking people out every other fight. With Neil at nearly even odds, this has to be the play despite being destroyed against a very tough Lorenz Larkin. Lean: MAGNY.

Others I'm leaning are: GARBRANDT, DONG HYUN KIM, SMOLKA, VETTORI.

Why Garbrandt? Are you seeing weaknesses in Cruz's game that I'm not?

[bjpenn85]

Garbrandt KO may happen. Not so likely by dec. Dec prop is +800, so it doesnt cost much limping a bit.

[Hugo de Naranja]

Garbrandt KO may happen. Not so likely by dec. Dec prop is +800, so it doesnt cost much limping a bit.

Yeah I might put a small hedge there when it gets to (+1000)

[strictlypaypal]

What makes you say Nunes is petite compared to Rousey? Nunes is taller, and has longer arms and legs. Nunes beat Valentina by Unanimous Decision before she fought for the title. You got to check your facts bud.

sorry i meant zingano, not valentina. zingano is on the bigger side like holm, and rousey. - all 3 can easily be fighting in the 145 division... FYI you guys probably already know this but cyborg brought up some old rousey tweets how she would have to cut a good amount to make 145. nunes is smaller than her you can tell she doesn't look much different from weigh in and fight night. i just can't see rousey not utilizing the clinch and absolutely dominating her with her judo.

and to JIBBBY, rousey looks pretty damn focused I'm pretty sure she's played over the scenario of that bell ringing in her head over 1000 times and she'll be ready. not saying the ko didn't affect her but she's had a year to adjust. if this was 6-7 months later like the supposed holm rousey 2 rematch at 200 then were talking something else but she took the time she needed. put it this way if that knock out never happened rousey is probably -600 or -700 in this fight vs nunes. those head issues you're talking about are the only difference between -600 and -160. which leads me to its almost TOO much value like they're baiting us to take rousey. but at those odds (-160) its hard not to lay some decent chunk of change on her

[bjpenn85]

Yeah I might put a small hedge there when it gets to (+1000)

Crus is shopworn and may blow out his knee, or break his hands. And the likelyhood is way higher than a normal fluke. You also saw it in his last fight were he had faked an injury for several rounds, but eventually had to limp out of the cage in pain. So even after 3 years hiatus, he still came in injured. I do think that even when cruz had that insane layoff, he still beat tj which was supposedly the best fighter in the world, so that kind of tells you how good Cruz is. Some had him winning 4-1 against TJ, that cruz, wont loose to Garbrandt, a fighter barely beating Marcus Brimage a couple of years ago.

[JIBBBY]

^^^Cruz's style is almost impossible to beat.. He dances, sticks and moves like no other fighter and is almost guaranteed to win rounds on points against anyone he faces.. Cody's only chance is by KO to win this fight IMO..

We've also never seen Cruz get knocked out cold and I don't think we will in this fight either.. Smart money has to be on Cruz and probably by decision I think..

[Unwritten Law]

I should go scout Alliance MMA and see how Cruz is doing. I just see a very focused Cody Garbrandt coming in healthy, hungry. I feel Faber will get him optimally prepared for this fight. One solid kick to the knee and he'll be limping the rest of the fight. Cody could very well be the piece and first TAM to bring home the UFC gold.

[Hugo de Naranja]

^^^Cruz's style is almost impossible to beat.. He dances, sticks and moves like no other fighter and is almost guaranteed to win rounds on points against anyone he faces.. Cody's only chance is by KO to win this fight IMO..

We've also never seen Cruz get knocked out cold and I don't think we will in this fight either.. Smart money has to be on Cruz and probably by decision I think..

Even when he does get hit he tends to take punches well and judges love his style. Has he ever been rocked or hurt in a fight? Maybe the first time he fought Faber in WEC.

[JIBBBY]

Even when he does get hit he tends to take punches well and judges love his style. Has he ever been rocked or hurt in a fight? Maybe the first time he fought Faber in WEC.

No I've never seen Cruz get rocked and stumble around drunk in fights.. Only quick unbalanced flash knock down where he still was never rocked and popped right back up.. Cruz never takes punches flush on the chin.. Like you said he moves well and rolls well with punches..

Cody is gonna come forward trying to hit the home run, but all he will be hitting is air.. Cruz is really masterful at keeping distance and avoiding the big shots.. Cody is best when fighters fight him and trade.. Cruz will not stand and trade with Cody... Cruz probably wins this fight easily if you ask me..

[bjpenn85]

I should go scout Alliance MMA and see how Cruz is doing. I just see a very focused Cody Garbrandt coming in healthy, hungry. I feel Faber will get him optimally prepared for this fight. One solid kick to the knee and he'll be limping the rest of the fight. Cody could very well be the piece and first TAM to bring home the UFC gold.

of 12 zuffa fights, cruz has won 10 times by dec. I dont really understand what should make me go for anything other than cruz by dec, when i still get like -120, or -200 straight on dominick. Cruz by dec is like ronda rousey is to armbars in the womens bantamweight. Every time you could say, but not armbar AGAIN? Sure. Its going to happen almost evey time cruz fight, for the rest of his careeer.

What about makovsky going the distance? 11 out of 13 last zuffa fights. Do you think he goes to dec next matchup?

[Hugo de Naranja]

of 12 zuffa fights, cruz has won 10 times by dec. I dont really understand what should make me go for anything other than cruz by dec, when i still get like -120, or -200 straight on dominick. Cruz by dec is like ronda rousey is to armbars in the womens bantamweight. Every time you could say, but not armbar AGAIN? Sure. Its going to happen almost evey time cruz fight, for the rest of his careeer.

What about makovsky going the distance? 11 out of 13 last zuffa fights. Do you think he goes to dec next matchup?

Cruz probably wins a wide UD but its not impossible for him to get the finish. We have a lot of questions about Cody's cardio, chin, submission defense etc. Rousey actually doesn't win by submission as much as people think. In her 6 UFC fights she has 3 wins by KO/TKO and 3 by armbar.

[PaperTrail07]

VERY hard fight to call IMO....the motivatiion of Hendrix means a LOT.....how does he show up.....I mean his losses-are losses most would have teken and he is only fighting top top.....Then you have magny coming off a rare loss.....VS Larkin who looked amaxing ...Lean MAGNY

Yep, it's not that I'm so high on Magny but JH just looks like crap in fights lately... He has no head movement and is a punching bag.. Can't even land take downs anymore.. Granted he's been facing top fighters but still...

With that being said Hendricks always has a punchers chance.. He does hit hard and has KO power.. So Magny better use his length, reach and quickness to stay out of range and avoid the big shots.. Magny doesn't exactly have a granite chin last I checked... Solid chin though.. Hard to knock Magny out cold..

[PaperTrail07]

Cody might be over aggressive as well.....It will not be easy to find Dom's chin....

Cruz probably wins a wide UD but its not impossible for him to get the finish. We have a lot of questions about Cody's cardio, chin, submission defense etc. Rousey actually doesn't win by submission as much as people think. In her 6 UFC fights she has 3 wins by KO/TKO and 3 by armbar.

[bjpenn85]

Cruz probably wins a wide UD but its not impossible for him to get the finish. We have a lot of questions about Cody's cardio, chin, submission defense etc. Rousey actually doesn't win by submission as much as people think. In her 6 UFC fights she has 3 wins by KO/TKO and 3 by armbar.

Or 9 out of 12 fights in total, by armbar. She probably wins her next fight with armbar as a direct consequence of her last fights have been tkos.

I do agree with what youre saying with garbrandt. A Cruz KO, is probably almost as likely here, because cruz can move and counter and then hit garbrandt. I did ride TJ against cruz and there were a couple of times i was like, woaw, fiiiijo, that was close. Cruz make you miss and that can be pretty scary.

[Hugo de Naranja]

Yep, it's not that I'm so high on Magny but JH just looks like crap in fights lately... He has no head movement and is a punching bag.. Can't even land take downs anymore.. Granted he's been facing top fighters but still...

With that being said Hendricks always has a punchers chance.. He does hit hard and has KO power.. So Magny better use his length, reach and quickness to stay out of range and avoid the big shots.. Magny doesn't exactly have a granite chin last I checked... Solid chin though.. Hard to knock Magny out cold..

Magny has a huge reach advantage and will jab JH all day.

[richie360]

As good as Cruz is his body is not 100% anymore. Garbrant by Ko for me. Also think Rousey will take out Nunez. Magny by Ko/ITD also.

[JIBBBY]

VERY hard fight to call IMO....the motivatiion of Hendrix means a LOT.....how does he show up.....I mean his losses-are losses most would have teken and he is only fighting top top.....Then you have magny coming off a rare loss.....VS Larkin who looked amaxing ...Lean MAGNY

The way Wonder boy and then Gas walked thru JH in his last 2 fights makes me thinks Johnny boy is on the decline. http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Johny-Hendricks-24539

I gotta agree with Hugo and say Magny probably jabs JH to death since he will have the reach and quickness advantage.. JH always has a punchers chance though and if connects to Magny's jaw via a bull rush he could knock him out.. Big if though..

I'm on Magny straight as I think he can win by stoppage or decision maybe.. Will keep an eye on the JH by KO prop as a possible hedge depending on the odds though when it comes out..

If JH uses his wrestling for once and lays and prays to a decision win on Magny everything blows up.. That's gambling though as there is always some amount of risk involved.....

[eligibletackle]

I don't hate Werdum here. Vintage Cain takes Werdum's lunch money 7 days out of the week. I'm not putting a ton of stock into this altitude angle when there's this litany of injuries and inability to train like he did in years prior. Maybe I'd feel differently if he ragdolled Browne for 15 minutes rather than overwhelming him in 5.

[eligibletackle]

I don't think Nunes has the technical striking like Holm to keep that distance while landing. It's a huge huge assumption to think Nunes can limit Ronda's attempts to clinch like Holm did just because Nunes outclasses Ronda in the striking game. If Ronda had a double leg TD in her arsenal it would've been a different story vs Holm. That Zingano/Nunes gif speaks volumes

[Hugo de Naranja]

I don't think Nunes has the technical striking like Holm to keep that distance while landing. It's a huge huge assumption to think Nunes can limit Ronda's attempts to clinch like Holm did just because Nunes outclasses Ronda in the striking game. If Ronda had a double leg TD in her arsenal it would've been a different story vs Holm. That Zingano/Nunes gif speaks volumes

Nunes not tackle eligible this time?

[JIBBBY]

I don't hate Werdum here. Vintage Cain takes Werdum's lunch money 7 days out of the week. I'm not putting a ton of stock into this altitude angle when there's this litany of injuries and inability to train like he did in years prior. Maybe I'd feel differently if he ragdolled Browne for 15 minutes rather than overwhelming him in 5.

Werdum is getting up in age at 39 years old himself.. http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Fabricio-Werdum-8390

He's been caught lately and knocked out cold.. Unlike Maia who uses his Jits in fights Werdum looks to strike in fights.. This might not be such a good idea as Werdums coming up on 40 years of age now and as that chin begins to weaken.... I'll take the 34 year old Cain in the rematch..

Cain also seems to have success in the rematch revenge fights like he did with JDS in their second fight..Hard to beat a fighter twice at this level...

[Snowball]

Right now I'm leaning Alex Cowboy Oliviera over Tim Means at -105.

Cruz vs. Garabrandt I will include Cruz in some multi-sport parlays.
after what I saw in the bitch fest they had on Fox last week, Cody is a punk
and he will get stupid and desperate. Cruz will probably catch him quickly
as Cody's insecure overenthusiasm gets the best of him. Cody acts like he
has punches and power that Cruz hasn't seen before, that is a total joke.

Rousey I am sold 100% on. She will die in that ring before losing.
I'm actually kind of worried for Nunes !
Seeing her drop to -135 today is an opportunity and I'm on it.
Expect the late money to plow on Rousey in Las Vegas.

[firekillex]

werdum vs cain 2 is completely different then JDS cain 2 imo... JDS caught him with a looping overhand a minute into the fight, werdum banged it out with cain for multiple rounds and got the best of him, plus cain cant use his takedowns to threaten as much because werdum is a wizard off his back ... 40 years old is up there but the heavyweights have a much higher shelf life and cain has had so many surgeries and injuries his body is definitely more wore down then werdum .... Still with all those points and werdum being cains toughest style matchup imo, i still lean cain because hes just the best heavyweight in the world to me ... If hes at his best i dont see anybody beating him but the question always is will he come to the octagon at his best, hes a competitor and will make sure he makes the walk for this fight so hopefully he comes near 90-100% he had werdum hurt even in the mexico fight and if his cardio can stay normal he could easily get the tko finish here if he fights smart . Werdum will try to use his kicks and distance while cain will try to get in close and bull werdum should be fireworks


and whoever said cain didnt absolutely ragdoll browne da fuq you talking about lol that was the definition of a mauling , guy was pulling out spinning wheel kicks to perfection dudes a beast and destroyed travis brown like it was nothing

[Hugo de Naranja]

Right now I'm leaning Alex Cowboy Oliviera over Tim Means at -105.

Cruz vs. Garabrandt I will include Cruz in some multi-sport parlays.
after what I saw in the bitch fest they had on Fox last week, Cody is a punk
and he will get stupid and desperate. Cruz will probably catch him quickly
as Cody's insecure overenthusiasm gets the best of him. Cody acts like he
has punches and power that Cruz hasn't seen before, that is a total joke.

Rousey I am sold 100% on. She will die in that ring before losing.
I'm actually kind of worried for Nunes !
Seeing her drop to -135 today is an opportunity and I'm on it.
Expect the late money to plow on Rousey in Las Vegas.

I'm buying back on some of my Nunes exposure at this price.

[Snowball]

I'm buying back on some of my Nunes exposure at this price.

Obviously, I agree with that move. But I just wanted to say with Rousey down to -135
how is this not the bottom unless something drastic happens before the fight ?

There is room for an arb profit if the late money at Vegas flows to Rhonda, you know,
whales and stars with lots of extra paper burning a hole in their pockets.. and the call-ins
from bookies nationwide - where you have to think Rhonda will get most of the bets, before
the fight is pulled off the table.

[JIBBBY]

I'm buying back on some of my Nunes exposure at this price.

Worries me a bit as well as Nunes is battling a flu and Rousey looks jacked and trained up... Still I'm sticking to my guns, on Nunes straight.. The Rousey arm bar hedge for insurance just doesn't have enough value for me to grab..

Hedge options -

1039

Rousey wins by submission

+105

1009

Rousey wins inside distance

-127

1025

Rousey wins in round 1

+145

[Hugo de Naranja]

Obviously, I agree with that move. But I just wanted to say with Rousey down to -135
how is this not the bottom unless something drastic happens before the fight ?

There is room for an arb profit if the late money at Vegas flows to Rhonda, you know,
whales and stars with lots of extra paper burning a hole in their pockets.. and the call-ins
from bookies nationwide - where you have to think Rhonda will get most of the bets, before
the fight is pulled off the table.

Agreed. Good arb opportunity.

[JIBBBY]

[PaperTrail07]

Have to Agree 100%

Obviously, I agree with that move. But I just wanted to say with Rousey down to -135
how is this not the bottom unless something drastic happens before the fight ?

There is room for an arb profit if the late money at Vegas flows to Rhonda, you know,
whales and stars with lots of extra paper burning a hole in their pockets.. and the call-ins
from bookies nationwide - where you have to think Rhonda will get most of the bets, before
the fight is pulled off the table.

[PaperTrail07]

off subject but hilarious video here LMAO....

http://www.bing.com/videos/search?q=...0B&FORM=VRDGAR

[PaperTrail07]

Just a great attitude LMAO...

[JIBBBY]

werdum vs cain 2 is completely different then JDS cain 2 imo... JDS caught him with a looping overhand a minute into the fight, werdum banged it out with cain for multiple rounds and got the best of him, plus cain cant use his takedowns to threaten as much because werdum is a wizard off his back ... 40 years old is up there but the heavyweights have a much higher shelf life and cain has had so many surgeries and injuries his body is definitely more wore down then werdum .... Still with all those points and werdum being cains toughest style matchup imo, i still lean cain because hes just the best heavyweight in the world to me ... If hes at his best i dont see anybody beating him but the question always is will he come to the octagon at his best, hes a competitor and will make sure he makes the walk for this fight so hopefully he comes near 90-100% he had werdum hurt even in the mexico fight and if his cardio can stay normal he could easily get the tko finish here if he fights smart . Werdum will try to use his kicks and distance while cain will try to get in close and bull werdum should be fireworks

Well in that first fight Cain was getting punched in the face but pretty much only when he was gassed early on and punch drunk.. Cain was in that fight though until he gassed out and got stopped.. Here is the video of the first fight.. Cain was connecting and landing often and did bust up Werdums face also... It just wasn't his night..

http://www.allfreefightvideos.com/20...dum-fight.html