[THE_LOCKSMITH]

FOX, 8:00 p.m. ET
Paige VanZant vs Michelle Waterson
Mickey Gall vs Sage Northcutt
Urijah Faber vs Brad Pickett
Alan Jouban vs Mike Perry

FOX Sports 1, 5:00 p.m. ET
Paul Graig vs Luis Henrique da Silva
Mizuto Hirota vs Cole Miller
Bryan Barberena vs Colby Covington
James Moontasri vs Alex Morono
Josh Emmett vs Scott Holtzman
Irene Aldana vs Leslie Smith

UFC Fight Pass 3:30 p.m. ET
Takeya Mizugaki vs Eddie Wineland
Hector Sandoval vs Fredy Serrano
Sultan Aliev vs Bojan Velickovic

[THE_RUDESTER]

Mike Perry -140 over Alan Jouban is a steal I believe. This guy has looked very impressive in his last two ufc fights and won both fights as a big underdog on both outings. This guy shows a lot of heart and is also undefeated and I expect him to keep the ball rolling and get the win. Anybody agree or disagree on this play?

[Hugo de Naranja]

Mike Perry -140 over Alan Jouban is a steal I believe. This guy has looked very impressive in his last two ufc fights and won both fights as a big underdog on both outings. This guy shows a lot of heart and is also undefeated and I expect him to keep the ball rolling and get the win. Anybody agree or disagree on this play?

Probably looking to play props here. Perry wasn't a big underdog in his second fight but he has been impressive so far. Dude has bad striking defense but has showcased a good chin so far. I think this could be FOTN but I think Jouban is more technical and well-rounded.

[Snowball]

Van Zant and Waterson have done absolutely nothing to deserve a
headline fight. Once again proves UFC cares about the $Benjamins$
more than establishing a respectable sporting federation.

[THE_RUDESTER]

Probably looking to play props here. Perry wasn't a big underdog in his second fight but he has been impressive so far. Dude has bad striking defense but has showcased a good chin so far. I think this could be FOTN but I think Jouban is more technical and well-rounded.

His first fight he was about +200 then second fight around +140. I like Perry in this match up. He packs a heavy punch and Jouban can chin doesn't always hold up well.

[Hugo de Naranja]

His first fight he was about +200 then second fight around +140. I like Perry in this match up. He packs a heavy punch and Jouban can chin doesn't always hold up well.

Yeah I'm interested to see what the Perry KO prop will come out as. This is a good matchup for him.

[Sanity Check]

Van Zant and Waterson have done absolutely nothing to deserve a
headline fight. Once again proves UFC cares about the $Benjamins$
more than establishing a respectable sporting federation.

PVZ and Karate Hottie are more deserving of a main event.

Than Peyton Manning was deserving of credit for the broncos winning the superbowl last year.

I guess the NFL is no longer a "respectable sporting federation".

Whatever the flock that is.

[THE_RUDESTER]

Mike Perry @ -115 I like it.

[bjpenn85]

Positive with Perry is his chin, and forward pressure, his grappling isnt bad. The negative is hes defence, no headmovement. Watch last fight he was tagged with the straight left at least 5 times in round 2 consecutively . Didnt learn anything. Tagged.....tagged...lets see...tagged....tagged...no headmovement...tagged...same shot, no head movement...tagged etc. Just horrible fight iq.

I was tempted to bet perry until the last two round of his last fight. Difficult to bet on someone that stupid. But he got KO power and forward pressure. But at +150, sure. -115, its a pickem. No value.

[UncleChael]

I took Northcutt +110.

[brooks85]

Van Zant and Waterson have done absolutely nothing to deserve a
headline fight. Once again proves UFC cares about the $Benjamins$
more than establishing a respectable sporting federation.

wait time out... you're telling me a business only cares about the benjamins?...

you always were on top of things snowball.. like your hilariously excellent posts on trump...

[JIBBBY]

I took Northcutt +110.

Not sure about this?

Probably Northcut is the call but this kid Mickey Gall seemed like he was the real deal in the couple of fights I remember seeing him in. He is undefeated too.. http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Mickey-Gall-160145

[Rich Benjamins]

I think I like the Northcutt bet. But not sure about Perry. Jouban is on a hot streak too, i think that can go either way. That's just my initial thought.

[valueguyman]

only angle on Jouban is that hes similar to size in Lim and better striker and ground game. but I don't think that matters because he folded quickly against strikes from Tumenov and Perrys style is pretty similar. Also, Perry has quick hands he got the hook against Lim and Roberts late in the third.. and he almost ko'd Hot Choclate 2x before he won. It shows in his undefeated all tko record.

Jouban will lose if hes too aggressive so maybe if he fights a longer range, landing leg kicks and matching exchanges. but his cardio is suspect along with his chin. This is a great matchup for Perry imo. I will be playing him to.

[firekillex]

Not sure about this?

Probably Northcut is the call but this kid Mickey Gall seemed like he was the real deal in the couple of fights I remember seeing him in. He is undefeated too.. http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Mickey-Gall-160145

lol hes undefeated 3-0 facing opponents with a total record of 0-3.... dont put any stock into an undefeated record like that
imo this fight is sage has the superior technique on the feet easily, mickey will have the ground advantage, the wrestling is tough to call sage has a solid double leg but his defense is terrible... both are fairly new so every fight they will be improving greatly so the last time we seen both it could be a completely different fighter... mickey definitely has that grit and toughness over sage as well... this is a fight that i would stay away from imo , to many unknown factors , play the underdog or go with a juicy prop small for fun , not really any huge edge in this fight both fighters are extremely green and new to the sport

[Unwritten Law]

Initial thoughts I like Gall, Waterson, Faber, Perry, Da Silva.

[bjpenn85]

Betting small amount on this card. I think faber wins, he is kind of the only trustworthy fighter on this card.

[Snowball]

Faber is juiced because everyone thinks he will win, myself included.

Last night I watched the pre-fight stories using the UFC app on my smart tv.

I'm pretty much sold on Waterson over Van Zant.
Waterson has the pedigree, the lifelong skills and confident ability to adjust,
she is more likely to counter the wilder, much less experienced Van Zant.
It's ok, Van Zant will continue to be a name, contend again, but I won't
take her against a real karate expert.

Northcutt and Gall is hard to predict. Northcutt has the pedigree, the experience
and lifelong skills. He's been fighting martial arts since early childhood and has a
room full of trophies. He's cut and athletic. No way Mickey Gall will stand with Northcutt
without taking a beating. The problem for Northcutt is he's only recently started to work
on his ground skills. That's where Gall has the advantage. If Mickey gets Northcutt down
and flopping around, he is more than likely to win.
So I'm leaning Gall because he is crazy fast on takedowns.

[JIBBBY]

Faber is juiced because everyone thinks he will win, myself included.

Last night I watched the pre-fight stories using the UFC app on my smart tv.

I'm pretty much sold on Waterson over Van Zant.
Waterson has the pedigree, the lifelong skills and confident ability to adjust,
she is more likely to counter the wilder, much less experienced Van Zant.
It's ok, Van Zant will continue to be a name, contend again, but I won't
take her against a real karate expert.

Northcutt and Gall is hard to predict. Northcutt has the pedigree, the experience
and lifelong skills. He's been fighting martial arts since early childhood and has a
room full of trophies. He's cut and athletic. No way Mickey Gall will stand with Northcutt
without taking a beating. The problem for Northcutt is he's only recently started to work
on his ground skills. That's where Gall has the advantage. If Mickey gets Northcutt down
and flopping around, he is more than likely to win.
So I'm leaning Gall because he is crazy fast on takedowns.

Agreed Snowball good post!!!

[JIBBBY]

lol hes undefeated 3-0 facing opponents with a total record of 0-3.... dont put any stock into an undefeated record like that
imo this fight is sage has the superior technique on the feet easily, mickey will have the ground advantage, the wrestling is tough to call sage has a solid double leg but his defense is terrible... both are fairly new so every fight they will be improving greatly so the last time we seen both it could be a completely different fighter... mickey definitely has that grit and toughness over sage as well... this is a fight that i would stay away from imo , to many unknown factors , play the underdog or go with a juicy prop small for fun , not really any huge edge in this fight both fighters are extremely green and new to the sport

Sage ITD, Gall by sub for the hedge? Probably how I'll play it..

[JIBBBY]

Faber -400 on the straight ouch... Thinking Faber by decision just because Pickett is tough and pretty damn hard to finish, but I'm still a little worried Faber will have the wrestling advantage and could possibly get the submission win against the journeyman Pickett..

Chances are this fight stays standing though.. Faber doesn't use his wrestling in fights lately.. The Faber decision and or over round bets are looking good in my eyes..

[getlucky2win]

I'm pounding the hottie

[Hugo de Naranja]

Sage ITD, Gall by sub for the hedge? Probably how I'll play it..

I'll probably play similarly, depending on odds of course. I'd caution everyone GO SMALL on this fight. We really don't know anything about Gall and Northcutt BARELY beat fuckingg Enrique Marin.

[JIBBBY]

I'll probably play similarly, depending on odds of course. I'd caution everyone GO SMALL on this fight. We really don't know anything about Gall and Northcutt BARELY beat fuckingg Enrique Marin.

UFC on FOX 22 - Welterweight 3 rounds - Golden 1 Center - Sacramento, California - FOX

Sat 12/17		1101 Sage Northcutt		+125	o1½ +100
9:00PM		1102 Mickey Gall		-145	u1½ -120

Maybe the Under could be the smartest play on this fight as well..

We've seen Sage mentally break before when he doesn't get the finish early on in fights... Sage is pretty explosive early on as well..

Mickey Gall also believes he is the best and can't be beat when he was interviewed just before he beat the crap out of CM Punk and then choked him out in the 1st round...

[Sanity Check]

Might take the over in the main event.

Michelle Waterson had trouble finishing the bully on Bully Beatdown.



And PVZ isn't really known as a finisher.

[Kermit]

And PVZ isn't really known as a finisher.

Not many woman are. Joanna Jędrzejczyk is know for being this killer striker, but the large majority of her wins have come by decision.

[JIBBBY]

^^ These top ranked tiny chicks always go the distance.. Odds reflect that now more then in the past unfortunately..

UFC on FOX 22 - Strawweight 5 rounds - Golden 1 Center - Sacramento, California - FOX

Sat 12/17		1001 Michelle Waterson		-105	o4½ -160
9:30PM		1002 Paige VanZant		-115	u4½ +140

[Hugo de Naranja]

^^ These top ranked tiny chicks always go the distance.. Odds reflect that now more then in the past unfortunately..

UFC on FOX 22 - Strawweight 5 rounds - Golden 1 Center - Sacramento, California - FOX

Sat 12/17		1001 Michelle Waterson		-105	o4½ -160
9:30PM		1002 Paige VanZant		-115	u4½ +140

"Check their records, bud"
-Urijah Faber

Real talk both of them are finishers. Under all day.

[JIBBBY]

"Check their records, bud"
-Urijah Faber

Real talk both of them are finishers. Under all day.

I did, 4 of 5 of her last fights against mostly top ranked opponents went over for Paige.. Only the last fight with Bec Rawling went under and ended early in the 2nd round.. http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Paige-VanZant-99019

Waterson the same, most of her recent fights went over as well.. http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Michelle-Waterson-23091

Also combined both fighters have only been stopped 3 times in all their combined 26 fights..

Also Paige's only stoppage loss ended late in the 5th round, and Waterson's last stoppage loss also ended late in the 3rd..

Chances are this fight goes the distance based on the numbers...

[Hugo de Naranja]

I did, 4 of 5 of her last fights against mostly top ranked opponents went over for Page.. Only the last fight with Bec Rawling went under and ended early in the 2nd round.. http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Paige-VanZant-99019

Waterson the same, most of her recent fights went over as well.. http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Michelle-Waterson-23091

Also combined both fighters have only been stopped 3 times in all their combined 26 fights..

What?? The over is 4.5 not 2.5.

PVZ: ALL UFC Bouts
Rawlings TKO 0:17 R2
Namajunas Sub Loss 2:25 R5
Chambers Sub 1:01 R3
Herrig Decision
Curran TKO 2:54 R3

Waterson:
Magana Sub 2:38 R3

Waterson has been to decision only once in 15 bouts since a 2 round decision loss to Alicia Gumm in 2007.

[Snowball]

PVZ is out of her league this time... this match will be growing pains for her...

[Sanity Check]

Wait. I just remembered I don't do analysis off of bully beatdown -- reality tv shows.

I'll say this. Earlier in her career Paige Van Zant was being trained by a relative unknown with a 1-1 pro record. That could be why PVZ was outwrestled badly by Rose Namajunas. She was training in a gym with a lot of good wrestlers but I don't think any of them were training PVZ. PVZ didn't have a decent wrestling coach. Things are different now. After Urijah Faber lost to Dominick Cruz the last time, he came back and started restructuring Team Alpha Male to fix some of the holes in their training. Urijah also started pouring more money into the gym to get people better training. Maybe to fix team alpha male not having a head coach & some of the reasons for TJ Dillashaw leaving & looking for better training elsewhere.

If I remember right, Danny Castillo is now something like the head wrestling coach at Team Alpha Male. Which means PVZ may now have a good wrestling coach for the first time in her career. Training wise this will be the best training PVZ has ever had which means this could be the best Paige Van Zant we've ever seen.

On the flip side, Michelle Waterson has been fighting professionally since 2007. Waterson was cutting down to atomweight, 105 lbs in invicta which could be bad for her body. She's also coming off an injury. Waterson while not old, she could be an aging fighter. That could be bad considering Waterson has shown she could be vulnerable to subs in invicta and PVZ has never really looked tired or gased out in a fight, is extremely tough and seems to have very good cardio.

Anyways I was kidding about the over. There are a lot of better options on this card.

I need to rewatch Waterson's last fight with Angela Magana but I am thinking PVZ has this.

There are cases that can be made for Michelle Waterson winning, too. Waterson trains with Holly Holm and could have better female sparring partners than PVZ has. Waterson also has tons of striking experience and could probably outpoint PVZ to a decision if the fight stays standing, Waterson doesn't get tired and PVZ can't get a takedown.

The odds for the main event are about where they should be at near to a 50/50 split.

[JIBBBY]

What?? The over is 4.5 not 2.5.

PVZ: ALL UFC Bouts
Rawlings TKO 0:17 R2
Namajunas Sub Loss 2:25 R5
Chambers Sub 1:01 R3
Herrig Decision
Curran TKO 2:54 R3

Waterson:
Magana Sub 2:38 R3

Waterson has been to decision only once in 15 bouts since a 2 round decision loss to Alicia Gumm in 2007.

Chances are this fight stays standing as well with the 2 strikers.. The key stats and trends in picking the over in this fight are -

Paige's only stoppage loss in her career ended late in the 5th round, and Waterson's last stoppage loss also ended late in the 3rd which I believe was a 3 round fight..

Combined both fighters have only been stopped 3 times in all their combined 26 fights..

Chances are this fight goes the distance based on those numbers...

[Hugo de Naranja]

Chances are this fight stays standing as well with the 2 strikers.. The key stats and trends in picking the over in this fight are -

Paige's only stoppage loss in her career ended late in the 5th round, and Waterson's last stoppage loss also ended late in the 3rd which I believe was a 3 round fight..

Combined both fighters have only been stopped 3 times in all their combined 26 fights..

Chances are this fight goes the distance based on those numbers...

Want to put some Betpoints on Fight to Go the Distance or the Over?

[JIBBBY]

Want to put some Betpoints on Fight to Go the Distance or the Over?

Sure.. Even odds it goes the distance I'm in.. 500 bet points.. That prop isn't out yet but I can imagine the odds will be remotely close to even anyways...

Up to you Hugo?