1. #1
    Flea Hotel
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    UFC 205 Professionally Handicapped

    Still working on my official picks. I've been nailing UFC cards since UFC 40 and betting MMA is what I do, it's my art.

    Stay tuned if you want to make money. There are lots of other threads that will have so called "expert" analysis and input, but if you want to go to the window, tail me. Picks should be up by Friday evening at the latest.

    To start: Thompson def Woodley ML. -200
    I will prob be playing a prop on this but I'm still watching tape and talking to people, etc.

    Cheers

  2. #2
    Unwritten Law
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    Really like Wonderboy here as well. All he can visualize is every path to victory and him holding that belt.

  3. #3
    PaperTrail07
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    JIBBBBY is this our old budday JOSH? lol
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  4. #4
    JIBBBY
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    I can't wait to pay for this guys picks... Got my credit card ready and in hand... Can we get the twitter or webpage sign up site now?

    Yep Twin Josh.. Only difference was Josh won alot for a short time there and really was a decent capper most of the time..
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  5. #5
    JAKEPEAVY21
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    I like wonderboy quite a bit as well

  6. #6
    Flea Hotel
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    Official picks

    UFC 205All lines PINNACLE, BOVADA or 5DIMES @ 8:25AM, 11/11/2016

    Alvarez vs McGregor line is from Bovada. This line is and will continue to drop, it will be a pick em by fight time so if you like Eddie, get on him ASAP. I got him early this week at +170. Now most books have him at +120. Bovada still has him at +145.

    I will not check this post until Sunday morning to post how many units I won, so keep that in mind before trolling. BOL!

    NOT AN OFFICIAL PLAY SINCE PARLAYS ARE STATISTICALLY -EV/-ROI BUT SINCE MOST PEOPLE DON'T BET TO PROFIT, HERE IS A NICE ONE, EVEN THOUGH PARLAYS ARE THE EQUIVELANT OF ROULETTE.

    Nurmagomedov, Thompson and Alverez. +390 (Implied probability of 20.9% to profit. Could certainly hit but parlays are for suckers. Period.)

    OFFICIAL PICKS
    * confident
    ** very confident
    *** bet the house, wife, girlfriend, daughter, microwave, etc.

    Miller vs Alves UNDER 2.5 ROUNDS 1 UNITS to win 1.85 UNITS (+185)*
    Chookagian vs. Carmouche OVER 2.5 ROUNDS 2.2 UNITS to win 1 UNIT (-220)*
    Muhammad def Luque 1.29 UNITS to win 1 UNIT (-129)*
    Netal def Boetsch 1.5 UNITS to win 1 UNIT (-150)*
    Nurmagomedov vs Johnson PASSING
    Edgar vs Stephens PASSING
    Tate vs Pennington PASSING
    Gastelum vs Cerrone OVER 2.5 ROUNDS 1.6 UNITS to win 1 UNIT (-160) *
    Weidman vs Romero FIGHT DOESN'T GO TO THE JUDGES 2.6 UNITS to win 2.3 UNITS (-130) **
    Kowalkiewicz vs Jędrzejczyk PASSING
    Woodley vs Thompson FIGHT DOESN'T GO THE JUDGES 2.8 UNITS to win 1.5 UNITS (-190) **

    Alverez def McGregor ITD 1 unit to win 2.25 UNITS (+225 William Hill) **
    Alverez def McGregor 3 UNITS to win 4.35 UNITS (+145) *** (LOCK OF THE NIGHT)

    BOL and enjoy the free money.
    Last edited by Flea Hotel; 11-12-16 at 05:33 AM.

  7. #7
    Unwritten Law
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    I like Alvarez here as well. I think he will drop McGregor for a TKO finish because he will likely just swing away much like he did vs RDA, versus going for a submission like Diaz. I will get on that prop as soon as it becomes available on BM. I currently see the TKO win on 5D is +475.

  8. #8
    Flea Hotel
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    I got burnt on CM vs Diaz II taking CM to finish so I was wary of Alvarez by finish, since the extra juice isn't that much. I'm just glad I got him at +170, now he's more or less even money everywhere and the line should close out at -110 each. Still thinking.... Blah, I gotta give in. Most of my money is on Eddie and the Co-Main not to go to the judges. Someone's getting finished in that for sure.
    Quote Originally Posted by Unwritten Law View Post
    I like Alvarez here as well. I think he will drop McGregor for a TKO finish because he will likely just swing away much like he did vs RDA, versus going for a submission like Diaz. I will get on that prop as soon as it becomes available on BM. I currently see the TKO win on 5D is +475.
    Last edited by Flea Hotel; 11-12-16 at 05:30 AM.

  9. #9
    Flea Hotel
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    Adding two plays

    As I predicted, the line has moved to +100 for Edddie and it will end up at -110 by fight time, maybe more. I like money and value so...

    While I can't get Eddie at +170 anymore, I can get him to finish at +225 at William Hill. I'm all over Eddie to win this fight, and while UFC 202 showed us that Conor can weather 25 minutes, I don't see that happening tonight. Eddie by finish. I won't bet a TKO/KO or a SUB prop, because he could easily catch Conor with strikes and finish with a RNC, or transition from GNP to a sub so I'll just take Eddie ITD @ +225.

    Conor can go have his kids and come back Ronda Rousey style in 2018. I already have my 3 unit play on Eddie when he was priced nice, but I'll throw 1.5 units on Eddie ITD. I'll update my official picks.

    I've bet big on every Conor fight, I got him right on Poirier, Aldo, and the second Diaz fight. I made a mint fading him in the first Diaz fight. Conor will be back but he loses tonight. I have a lot of friends betting CM hard tonight and they'll wake up with a lot less cash then they had before they went to bed. And a bad hangover.

    Also, Wonderboy vs Tyron NOT to go to the judges is free money and only -189 at William Hill.

  10. #10
    Flea Hotel
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    LOL. Get a life.
    Quote Originally Posted by JIBBBY View Post
    I can't wait to pay for this guys picks... Got my credit card ready and in hand... Can we get the twitter or webpage sign up site now?

    Yep Twin Josh.. Only difference was Josh won alot for a short time there and really was a decent capper most of the time..

  11. #11
    Flea Hotel
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    Wow, thanks to all the lower-mid tier sports betters putting triple digit bets on CM or making silly parlays with CM as a hedgeable end piece and making Eddie +140 again! They say amateur money doesn't move lines..

    I love you!

  12. #12
    new era
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  13. #13
    Hugo de Naranja
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    Buried
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  14. #14
    firekillex
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    Professional picks you killed it bro

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