[Flea Hotel]

My UFC 204 PICKS

I usually post this closer to fight time but I'm swamped so I'll get them out now.
All lines are from 5Dimes, 10PM EST Thurday, October 6. I play mostly totals, props but sides when they make sense. For the more coservative, ignore my prop and take the fighter and if the juice is too much, try to work them in a parlay. Please avoid more than 3 teamers unless they are hedgeable on the last fight. Trust me, 5 teamers + statisitcally cannot profit long term. It's like playing a single number on a roulette table. You'll hit your 35:1 once in 38 times. Nobody profits long term playing lotto parlays. First, if you hit your 6-8 teamer, you'll underscore your roll trying to hit a second. Second, take an Intro to Stats course if you need science and math to convince you. If you like them because you have money to burn and they entertain you, parlay all my props, totals and sides and you'll get close to +290000.

Michael Bisping vs. Dan Henderson Bisping
UNDER 2.5 ROUNDS (-135)

Vitor Belfort vs. Mousasi
Belfort by TKO RD1 (+625) Crazy pick? No. +625 means 13.9 Implied Odds and Mousasi has always underwhelmed me. I actually think Belfort isn't a great style match up. This a long shot but I'm using Mousasi in a near-lock parlay so why not? Mousasi ML is too pricey for a straight bet and finding a total or prop or him is always an exercise in futility. I'm going to put a 1/4 unit on Belfort by TKO RD1 and just use Mousasi as a paraly piece.

Ovince Saint Preux vs. Jimi Manuwa
PASSING ON THIS FIGHT

Stefan Struve vs. Daniel Omielańczuk
Omielańczuk ML (+155) UPSET SPECIAL!

Mirsad Bektic vs. Russell Doane
LOL! DOG OR PASS

Iuri Alcāntara ML (-165)
Ian Entwistle vs Rob Font
DOG OR PASS on the fight but Font is a decent parlay piece.

Davey Grant ML (-185)

Leon Edwards vs. Albert Tumenov
OVER 1.5 ROUNDS (-190) Lots of juice but prob the safest pick of the card

Mike Perry by KO/TKO (+170)

Leonardo Santos vs. Adriano Martins
DOG OR PASS

Diakiese ITD (+157)

Two parlays. I don't do more than 3 teamers unless the last pick is hedgeable.
1) Diakiese, Grant, Mousasi (+212) Implied Probability 34.3% or more is +ROI
2) Font, Alcāntara, Bisping (+189)

BOL

[Flea Hotel]

5-3 +3.39 UNITS
Congrats to all who tailed. See you next time.

My UFC 204 PICKS

I usually post this closer to fight time but I'm swamped so I'll get them out now.
All lines are from 5Dimes, 10PM EST Thurday, October 6. I play mostly totals, props but sides when they make sense. For the more coservative, ignore my prop and take the fighter and if the juice is too much, try to work them in a parlay. Please avoid more than 3 teamers unless they are hedgeable on the last fight. Trust me, 5 teamers + statisitcally cannot profit long term. It's like playing a single number on a roulette table. You'll hit your 35:1 once in 38 times. Nobody profits long term playing lotto parlays. First, if you hit your 6-8 teamer, you'll underscore your roll trying to hit a second. Second, take an Intro to Stats course if you need science and math to convince you. If you like them because you have money to burn and they entertain you, parlay all my props, totals and sides and you'll get close to +290000.

Michael Bisping vs. Dan Henderson Bisping
UNDER 2.5 ROUNDS (-135)

Vitor Belfort vs. Mousasi
Belfort by TKO RD1 (+625) Crazy pick? No. +625 means 13.9 Implied Odds and Mousasi has always underwhelmed me. I actually think Belfort isn't a great style match up. This a long shot but I'm using Mousasi in a near-lock parlay so why not? Mousasi ML is too pricey for a straight bet and finding a total or prop or him is always an exercise in futility. I'm going to put a 1/4 unit on Belfort by TKO RD1 and just use Mousasi as a paraly piece.

Ovince Saint Preux vs. Jimi Manuwa
PASSING ON THIS FIGHT

Stefan Struve vs. Daniel Omielańczuk
Omielańczuk ML (+155) UPSET SPECIAL!

Mirsad Bektic vs. Russell Doane
LOL! DOG OR PASS

Iuri Alcāntara ML (-165)
Ian Entwistle vs Rob Font
DOG OR PASS on the fight but Font is a decent parlay piece.

Davey Grant ML (-185)

Leon Edwards vs. Albert Tumenov
OVER 1.5 ROUNDS (-190) Lots of juice but prob the safest pick of the card

Mike Perry by KO/TKO (+170)

Leonardo Santos vs. Adriano Martins
DOG OR PASS

Diakiese ITD (+157)

Two parlays. I don't do more than 3 teamers unless the last pick is hedgeable.
1) Diakiese, Grant, Mousasi (+212) Implied Probability 34.3% or more is +ROI
2) Font, Alcāntara, Bisping (+189)

BOL

[TPowell]

That isn't right. Assuming your plays were all either risking 1 unit (dogs) and to win 1 unit (chalk), outside of the Belfort prop, you would be up like 0.8 units with the 2 parlays left. I'm guessing the 2nd parlay without Font was around +130 or so and you lost the 1st one so I'll give you another 0.25-0.3 units. That comes to 1.1-1.2 units up with a record of 5-5.....

[Hugo de Naranja]

That isn't right. Assuming your plays were all either risking 1 unit (dogs) and to win 1 unit (chalk), outside of the Belfort prop, you would be up like 0.8 units with the 2 parlays left. I'm guessing the 2nd parlay without Font was around +130 or so and you lost the 1st one so I'll give you another 0.25-0.3 units. That comes to 1.1-1.2 units up with a record of 5-5.....

Yeah it might help to put your units for each play in the post next time Flea.

[Flea Hotel]

Thanks, will do.

Yeah it might help to put your units for each play in the post next time Flea.