1. #1
    TPowell
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    UFC 203: Werdum vs Browne preview

    Doing some writing for different places right now and trying to get some material for people to take a look at. Here's my first fight preview



    UFC 203- Fabricio Werdum (20-6-1) vs Travis Browne (18-4-1)

    Fabricio Werdum: After being dropped by Stipe Miocic in his first title defense, Fabricio Werdum is back to square one. His fight against Miocic was very strange to say the least. Werdum opted to go with the strategy of running at Stipe with his hands down and pressuring him all over the cage. It was an ultra-aggressive style that Werdum tried to employ, but it ultimately cost him with a well-placed counter punch from Miocic that crumbled him. Werdum has grown into a solid striker at heavyweight in the last few years, but his bread and butter is still his ground game. There are very few, if any guys on the UFC roster that can hang with Werdum on the ground. With all that said, father time is coming up fast on Fabricio. He will turn 40 next July and has been a pro since 2002. That being said, some have mentioned Werdum having looked a little “soft” in the body in his last fight which could be a result of his increasing age, lack of motivation after capturing his first UFC title, or a potential PED angle. Any of those would be disastrous, but I’m not completely sold on that being the case here.

    Travis Browne: Travis Browne had a great opportunity at UFC 200 against the former champion Cain Velasquez, but was absolutely brutalized and finally finished in the waning seconds of the first round. Cain Velasquez absolutely destroyed him with ground and pound and it was very surprising that he was able to almost survive the first round. I encourage everyone to watch that fight before this weekend’s affair. At 6’7 and nearly 260 pounds for most fights, Travis Browne is a monster heavyweight or usually has a solid size advantage in fights and he certainly will against Werdum in this one, but it’ll only be a couple inches of reach. For someone so tall, Browne certainly shows the negative traits of it in the standup. He’s very awkward on the feet and his movement and balance leaves a lot to be desired, but he does pack a lot of power in his hands. The only problem is his technique just isn’t very good and has been a constant decline since leaving Jackson Wink MMA (cream of the crop gym) and shacking up at girlfriend Ronda Rousey’s gym, Glendale Fighting Club. To put it politely, fighters just don’t grow at that gym and it’s been evident in the case of Travis Browne.

    BREAKDOWN: In this fight, Travis Browne only has one way to win this fight and that is knocking Werdum out with one of his powerful, yet poorly thrown punches. He did finish Matt Mitrione a couple fights ago but he was aided by a couple vicious eye pokes that left Mitrione basically unable to see out of one eye. Werdum is the more technical fighter wherever this fight ends up and I refuse to let age talk me out of playing the former champion at a discount -200 or so price against a fighter that could very easily be out of the UFC in another fight or two. Another plus factor is the beating that Browne took in his last fight against Velasquez, just a couple months ago. Browne’s chin could easily be on the way out after that fight and Werdum should certainly be able to land in this fight. I won’t call Werdum inside the distance a lock, but I do think he’s very close to a lock to win this fight in one way or the other. If it goes to a decision, Werdum should win easily and that’s why I love the points handicap of -3.5 -110 in this fight. Essentially, Werdum has to either finish the fight or win on the scorecards by more than 3.5 points. A 29-28 decision for Werdum across the board would come up a half point short for example, but a 29-28, 29-28, 30-27 decision would be enough to cash the -3.5 points handicap.

    PLAY: Werdum -3.5 (-110)
    Nomination(s):
    This post was nominated 1 time . To view the nominated thread please click here. People who nominated: Hugo de Naranja

  2. #2
    Hugo de Naranja
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    Quote Originally Posted by TPowell View Post
    Doing some writing for different places right now and trying to get some material for people to take a look at. Here's my first fight preview



    UFC 203- Fabricio Werdum (20-6-1) vs Travis Browne (18-4-1)

    Fabricio Werdum: After being dropped by Stipe Miocic in his first title defense, Fabricio Werdum is back to square one. His fight against Miocic was very strange to say the least. Werdum opted to go with the strategy of running at Stipe with his hands down and pressuring him all over the cage. It was an ultra-aggressive style that Werdum tried to employ, but it ultimately cost him with a well-placed counter punch from Miocic that crumbled him. Werdum has grown into a solid striker at heavyweight in the last few years, but his bread and butter is still his ground game. There are very few, if any guys on the UFC roster that can hang with Werdum on the ground. With all that said, father time is coming up fast on Fabricio. He will turn 40 next July and has been a pro since 2002. That being said, some have mentioned Werdum having looked a little “soft” in the body in his last fight which could be a result of his increasing age, lack of motivation after capturing his first UFC title, or a potential PED angle. Any of those would be disastrous, but I’m not completely sold on that being the case here.

    Travis Browne: Travis Browne had a great opportunity at UFC 200 against the former champion Cain Velasquez, but was absolutely brutalized and finally finished in the waning seconds of the first round. Cain Velasquez absolutely destroyed him with ground and pound and it was very surprising that he was able to almost survive the first round. I encourage everyone to watch that fight before this weekend’s affair. At 6’7 and nearly 260 pounds for most fights, Travis Browne is a monster heavyweight or usually has a solid size advantage in fights and he certainly will against Werdum in this one, but it’ll only be a couple inches of reach. For someone so tall, Browne certainly shows the negative traits of it in the standup. He’s very awkward on the feet and his movement and balance leaves a lot to be desired, but he does pack a lot of power in his hands. The only problem is his technique just isn’t very good and has been a constant decline since leaving Jackson Wink MMA (cream of the crop gym) and shacking up at girlfriend Ronda Rousey’s gym, Glendale Fighting Club. To put it politely, fighters just don’t grow at that gym and it’s been evident in the case of Travis Browne.

    BREAKDOWN: In this fight, Travis Browne only has one way to win this fight and that is knocking Werdum out with one of his powerful, yet poorly thrown punches. He did finish Matt Mitrione a couple fights ago but he was aided by a couple vicious eye pokes that left Mitrione basically unable to see out of one eye. Werdum is the more technical fighter wherever this fight ends up and I refuse to let age talk me out of playing the former champion at a discount -200 or so price against a fighter that could very easily be out of the UFC in another fight or two. Another plus factor is the beating that Browne took in his last fight against Velasquez, just a couple months ago. Browne’s chin could easily be on the way out after that fight and Werdum should certainly be able to land in this fight. I won’t call Werdum inside the distance a lock, but I do think he’s very close to a lock to win this fight in one way or the other. If it goes to a decision, Werdum should win easily and that’s why I love the points handicap of -3.5 -110 in this fight. Essentially, Werdum has to either finish the fight or win on the scorecards by more than 3.5 points. A 29-28 decision for Werdum across the board would come up a half point short for example, but a 29-28, 29-28, 30-27 decision would be enough to cash the -3.5 points handicap.

    PLAY: Werdum -3.5 (-110)
    Excellent write-up TPowell. I think Travis either catches Werdum early or gets worked and possibly even finished. I love the Werdum -3.5 play and it will be one of my biggest of the night. I hedged with Browne Round 1 at (+400) and I think this is a pretty low risk way to play the fight.

  3. #3
    TPowell
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    Quote Originally Posted by Hugo de Naranja View Post
    Excellent write-up TPowell. I think Travis either catches Werdum early or gets worked and possibly even finished. I love the Werdum -3.5 play and it will be one of my biggest of the night. I hedged with Browne Round 1 at (+400) and I think this is a pretty low risk way to play the fight.
    I would agree and I MAY hedge but I doubt it. Coming off a loss like Werdum is, I can't see him getting caught by something as sloppy as Browne will be throwing. Werdum is a veteran and I think he definitely learned his lesson last fight

  4. #4
    Hugo de Naranja
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    Quote Originally Posted by TPowell View Post
    I would agree and I MAY hedge but I doubt it. Coming off a loss like Werdum is, I can't see him getting caught by something as sloppy as Browne will be throwing. Werdum is a veteran and I think he definitely learned his lesson last fight
    I see your point but Browne does have 14 of his 18 career wins by KO, as well as 13 first round finishes.

  5. #5
    UncleChael
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    Bad bet. Travis 'Big Hapa' Browne is going to put a beat down on Werdum.

  6. #6
    TPowell
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    Quote Originally Posted by UncleChael View Post
    Bad bet. Travis 'Big Hapa' Browne is going to put a beat down on Werdum.
    With all that great technique he's picking up from Edmond at Glendale?

  7. #7
    UncleChael
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    Quote Originally Posted by TPowell View Post
    With all that great technique he's picking up from Edmond at Glendale?
    Yeah, because running at Stipe was a great idea talk to you later, man. Best of luck

  8. #8
    Hugo de Naranja
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    Quote Originally Posted by TPowell View Post
    With all that great technique he's picking up from Edmond at Glendale?
    Bro, Edmond Tarverdyan is the GOAT. Way better than Greg Jackson or Matt Hume

  9. #9
    firekillex
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    Quote Originally Posted by Hugo de Naranja View Post
    Bro, Edmond Tarverdyan is the GOAT. Way better than Greg Jackson or Matt Hume
    well sir

  10. #10
    Hugo de Naranja
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    Quote Originally Posted by firekillex View Post
    well sir
    Real talk, he's probably the worst trainer in the business for elite MMA fighters.

  11. #11
    slikec
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    Which books offer props on MMA?

  12. #12
    Hugo de Naranja
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    Quote Originally Posted by slikec View Post
    Which books offer props on MMA?
    5Dimes definitely offers the widest selection but a lot of books have basic props (over/under, a fighter to win inside the distance etc.)
    Points Awarded:

    PaperTrail07 gave Hugo de Naranja 25 Betpoint(s) for this post.


  13. #13
    PaperTrail07
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    Nice call on the weigh in Hugo---fuckn guy made it..never confirmed but here is a 25er lol....its whatever lol go PRO....
    Quote Originally Posted by Hugo de Naranja View Post
    5Dimes definitely offers the widest selection but a lot of books have basic props (over/under, a fighter to win inside the distance etc.)

  14. #14
    Hugo de Naranja
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    Quote Originally Posted by PaperTrail07 View Post
    Nice call on the weigh in Hugo---fuckn guy made it..never confirmed but here is a 25er lol....its whatever lol go PRO....
    Didn't we confirm it for 100 on the Punk/Gall thread?
    Points Awarded:

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  15. #15
    PaperTrail07
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    I never looked back....but also realize you can only pay 2 a day right? Either way....stack em and get PRO-otherwise they are useless....
    Quote Originally Posted by Hugo de Naranja View Post
    Didn't we confirm it for 100 on the Punk/Gall thread?

  16. #16
    PaperTrail07
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    What the deal with the pre-weigh in's...? Hate how they say they are at 6 and the sharp sharp has all the early info GRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRR......
    Quote Originally Posted by Hugo de Naranja View Post
    Didn't we confirm it for 100 on the Punk/Gall thread?

  17. #17
    Hugo de Naranja
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    Quote Originally Posted by PaperTrail07 View Post
    I never looked back....but also realize you can only pay 2 a day right? Either way....stack em and get PRO-otherwise they are useless....
    Planning to go PRO soon. Good luck this weekend Papes!

  18. #18
    PaperTrail07
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    You too siR......
    Quote Originally Posted by Hugo de Naranja View Post
    Planning to go PRO soon. Good luck this weekend Papes!

  19. #19
    Sanity Check
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    @ 0:46

    What are peoples thoughts on Werdum's dad bod?

    I don't remember Werdum ever looking that out of shape before.

  20. #20
    TPowell
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    Quote Originally Posted by Sanity Check View Post


    @ 0:46

    What are peoples thoughts on Werdum's dad bod?

    I don't remember Werdum ever looking that out of shape before.

    Looked bad last fight according to some people but I just don't see THAT big of a difference. The guy is 38 so....

  21. #21
    TPowell
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    Biggest play on the card for me but Andrade was close. Great event. On to Fight Night in Hidalgo?

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