Originally Posted by
bjpenn85
Now ive seen all nate diaz matches from the cerrone fight and to this date and rewatched diaz vs mcregor a bunch of times. Ive actually feel i see this fight more clearly now.
- Fight will go over 2.5 rounds because mcregor have understood he cant KO diaz and he also probably wont punch himself out/ get cought and get tired however you want to put it. Its still a possibility diaz may finish conor, but i kind of doubt it.
- The blueprint to beat diaz is wrestling, and movement. I will explain further the latter point below. Conor may take him down, but over the course of five rounds he shouldnt, he will gass, and tire out. So dont expekt this gameplan to come into fruition.
- For conor to win he needs to implement leg kicks and other types of kicks to wear down diaz. Easier said than done, because if you kick diaz he often counter with a straight right in the kisser. Diaz has a vulnerability to leg kicks a bit because of his boxing stance. You have one leg in front of the other, so, you naturally find it difficult to defend. But Diaz didnt receive any fight changing kicks against cerrone, and many were also checked, so i dont see this being a major factor. But it isnt impossible for connor to kick diaz repeatedly and cause damage, its just hard to see him be able to without absorbing damage. The rule of thumb have to be, standing in front of diaz, youre loosing.
- But, the other blueprint is also written. Carlos Condit, and josh thompson implemented more or less the exact same game plan. This gameplan is to move on the outside, refusing to trade with diaz in the pocket at all cost. Both succeeded. A diaz gets angry if you dont fight him. Theyr thugs, their fighters, if you break the code, they get mad. So if Mcregor comes to not fight, thats his best way to win. Moving, kicking, not standing in front of diaz basically. But both thompson and Condit has a style that maybe resembles that particular movement style, is it possible to see conor bounce around like another idiot and then actually succseeding on the judges score cards? I have my doubt. Mcregor is to proud, you dont see people in the NBA throw underarm shots even thought its scientifically proven that this style will make you score more points, its just too embarrassing.
- Nate diaz just need to be nate diaz to win. Mcregor cant keep the same pace for five rounds. Thompson actually startet to slow down before he won by that crazy high kick. Johnson had some success in round 1, but couldnt keep the pace or follow his gameplan either. And thats where i see the main problem for conor lies. In round 1 and round 2, fine. You can jump around, be elusive doing fancy smancy things. But, when the fights settles down, its trading, 1 on 1. Diaz will win, he decides the pace, a pace you cant keep up with, hes got the reach, hes got the boxing, and hes got the cardio. Thats why he should win this fight. Its basically a question of, will mcregor stand in front of him, or will he not? If he does, he will loose. i really wonder what kind of gameplan you can implement which doesnt include wrestling, or moving like a pussy to stay out of trouble but at the same time winning against diaz? I just cant see it.
Re-watch Mcregor vs diaz 1, i really thought it was loopsided, but it was pretty close. So in a 5 round fight, mcregor fought close with diaz for 1 round, and then got smoked in round 2. Diaz perspective on this was that he was out of shape and not ready for the fight. In round 2, he settled down and got into the rhythm. If you watch all diaz fight, you know thats true.
Im keeping my bet on diaz with larger confidence than before. And with a big questionmark in regards to what type of gameplan Mcregor has in store...