1. #1
    THE_LOCKSMITH
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    UFC 202: Diaz vs. McGregor 2 (August 20, 2016)



    Pay-per-view, 10 p.m. ET
    Conor McGregor vs. Nate Diaz
    Anthony Johnson vs Glover Teixeira
    Donald Cerrone vs Rick Story
    Hyun Gyu Lim vs Mike Perry
    Tim Means vs Sean Strickland

    FOX Sports 1, 8 p.m. ET
    Cody Garbrandt vs Takeya Mizugaki
    Raquel Pennington vs Elizabeth Phillips
    Chris Avila vs Artem Lobov
    Cortney Casey vs Randa Markos

    UFC Fight Pass, 6:30 p.m. ET
    Lorenz Larkin vs Neil Magny
    Colby Covington vs Max Griffin
    Ning Guangyou vs Marlon Vera
    Alberto Uda vs Marvin Vettori




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  2. #2
    slayer14
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    Diaz will win again

  3. #3
    SEKTAUR
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    Glover BIG

  4. #4
    Killer_Demo
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    Im Betting magny

  5. #5
    Unwritten Law
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    Diaz, Teixeira, Cerrone.

  6. #6
    Hugo de Naranja
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    Quote Originally Posted by Unwritten Law View Post
    Diaz, Teixeira, Cerrone.
    ^^^

  7. #7
    Ty$
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    Quote Originally Posted by Hugo de Naranja View Post
    ^^^
    I think cerrone loses a boring fight. His sprawl isn't great and Story has never been TKOd. Only stoppage to DM.

  8. #8
    Hugo de Naranja
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    Quote Originally Posted by Ty$ View Post
    I think cerrone loses a boring fight. His sprawl isn't great and Story has never been TKOd. Only stoppage to DM.
    We shall see. Hedged Story Decision at (+248)

  9. #9
    bjpenn85
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    Quote Originally Posted by SEKTAUR View Post
    Glover BIG
    Im starting to think that glover has a good shot. But what is his path to victory? I just watched johnson vs cormier, and cormier had a lot of problems getting johnson down. Sometimes people tdd vary a bit, its not uncommon that fighters showcase very good tdd against a very good wrestler, maybe because of the focus of specific traning going into the fight, to then showcase bad tdd to a guy without the same wrestling credentials and then easily get taken down. However, is that very ilkely? Isnt the most likely scenario that glover wont be taking johnson down, loosing a dec in a standup fight. I do think though, if this fight ends up on the ground, you can kiss johnsons chances of winning goodbye.

  10. #10
    brooks85
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    lots of tickets unsold, glad I didn't buy any to resell. Writing was on the wall.

  11. #11
    ufcfan2016
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    STORY AND TEXIERA + MONEY...do not be cerrone in this spot against a pressure fighter,

  12. #12
    ufcfan2016
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    Quote Originally Posted by bjpenn85 View Post
    Im starting to think that glover has a good shot. But what is his path to victory? I just watched johnson vs cormier, and cormier had a lot of problems getting johnson down. Sometimes people tdd vary a bit, its not uncommon that fighters showcase very good tdd against a very good wrestler, maybe because of the focus of specific traning going into the fight, to then showcase bad tdd to a guy without the same wrestling credentials and then easily get taken down. However, is that very ilkely? Isnt the most likely scenario that glover wont be taking johnson down, loosing a dec in a standup fight. I do think though, if this fight ends up on the ground, you can kiss johnsons chances of winning goodbye.
    glover wrestling is really weird, hes not primely a wrestler but the technique he uses to take people down are good, if you rewatch the rampage fight, and the comments afterwards, rampage spoke how glover takedown were weird and he did not know how to defend against it like a normal wrestler would do for takedowns,

    glover wresting is above average but in a 3 round fight...tough call. 5round fight glover if he survives....

    still right pick is glover at +175 or better

  13. #13
    Rich Benjamins
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    What's Glover's path to victory? Johnson has good takedown defense, Phil Davis couldn't get him down. Cormier could take Johnson down but he's at another level. I see Johnson catching Glover and taking him out.

  14. #14
    bjpenn85
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    Now ive seen all nate diaz matches from the cerrone fight and to this date and rewatched diaz vs mcregor a bunch of times. Ive actually feel i see this fight more clearly now.

    - Fight will go over 2.5 rounds because mcregor have understood he cant KO diaz and he also probably wont punch himself out/ get cought and get tired however you want to put it. Its still a possibility diaz may finish conor, but i kind of doubt it.

    - The blueprint to beat diaz is wrestling, and movement. I will explain further the latter point below. Conor may take him down, but over the course of five rounds he shouldnt, he will gass, and tire out. So dont expekt this gameplan to come into fruition.

    - For conor to win he needs to implement leg kicks and other types of kicks to wear down diaz. Easier said than done, because if you kick diaz he often counter with a straight right in the kisser. Diaz has a vulnerability to leg kicks a bit because of his boxing stance. You have one leg in front of the other, so, you naturally find it difficult to defend. But Diaz didnt receive any fight changing kicks against cerrone, and many were also checked, so i dont see this being a major factor. But it isnt impossible for connor to kick diaz repeatedly and cause damage, its just hard to see him be able to without absorbing damage. The rule of thumb have to be, standing in front of diaz, youre loosing.

    - But, the other blueprint is also written. Carlos Condit, and josh thompson implemented more or less the exact same game plan. This gameplan is to move on the outside, refusing to trade with diaz in the pocket at all cost. Both succeeded. A diaz gets angry if you dont fight him. Theyr thugs, their fighters, if you break the code, they get mad. So if Mcregor comes to not fight, thats his best way to win. Moving, kicking, not standing in front of diaz basically. But both thompson and Condit has a style that maybe resembles that particular movement style, is it possible to see conor bounce around like another idiot and then actually succseeding on the judges score cards? I have my doubt. Mcregor is to proud, you dont see people in the NBA throw underarm shots even thought its scientifically proven that this style will make you score more points, its just too embarrassing.

    - Nate diaz just need to be nate diaz to win. Mcregor cant keep the same pace for five rounds. Thompson actually startet to slow down before he won by that crazy high kick. Johnson had some success in round 1, but couldnt keep the pace or follow his gameplan either. And thats where i see the main problem for conor lies. In round 1 and round 2, fine. You can jump around, be elusive doing fancy smancy things. But, when the fights settles down, its trading, 1 on 1. Diaz will win, he decides the pace, a pace you cant keep up with, hes got the reach, hes got the boxing, and hes got the cardio. Thats why he should win this fight. Its basically a question of, will mcregor stand in front of him, or will he not? If he does, he will loose. i really wonder what kind of gameplan you can implement which doesnt include wrestling, or moving like a pussy to stay out of trouble but at the same time winning against diaz? I just cant see it.


    Re-watch Mcregor vs diaz 1, i really thought it was loopsided, but it was pretty close. So in a 5 round fight, mcregor fought close with diaz for 1 round, and then got smoked in round 2. Diaz perspective on this was that he was out of shape and not ready for the fight. In round 2, he settled down and got into the rhythm. If you watch all diaz fight, you know thats true.

    Im keeping my bet on diaz with larger confidence than before. And with a big questionmark in regards to what type of gameplan Mcregor has in store...

  15. #15
    xagonzx
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    Quote Originally Posted by bjpenn85 View Post
    Now ive seen all nate diaz matches from the cerrone fight and to this date and rewatched diaz vs mcregor a bunch of times. Ive actually feel i see this fight more clearly now.

    - Fight will go over 2.5 rounds because mcregor have understood he cant KO diaz and he also probably wont punch himself out/ get cought and get tired however you want to put it. Its still a possibility diaz may finish conor, but i kind of doubt it.

    - The blueprint to beat diaz is wrestling, and movement. I will explain further the latter point below. Conor may take him down, but over the course of five rounds he shouldnt, he will gass, and tire out. So dont expekt this gameplan to come into fruition.

    - For conor to win he needs to implement leg kicks and other types of kicks to wear down diaz. Easier said than done, because if you kick diaz he often counter with a straight right in the kisser. Diaz has a vulnerability to leg kicks a bit because of his boxing stance. You have one leg in front of the other, so, you naturally find it difficult to defend. But Diaz didnt receive any fight changing kicks against cerrone, and many were also checked, so i dont see this being a major factor. But it isnt impossible for connor to kick diaz repeatedly and cause damage, its just hard to see him be able to without absorbing damage. The rule of thumb have to be, standing in front of diaz, youre loosing.

    - But, the other blueprint is also written. Carlos Condit, and josh thompson implemented more or less the exact same game plan. This gameplan is to move on the outside, refusing to trade with diaz in the pocket at all cost. Both succeeded. A diaz gets angry if you dont fight him. Theyr thugs, their fighters, if you break the code, they get mad. So if Mcregor comes to not fight, thats his best way to win. Moving, kicking, not standing in front of diaz basically. But both thompson and Condit has a style that maybe resembles that particular movement style, is it possible to see conor bounce around like another idiot and then actually succseeding on the judges score cards? I have my doubt. Mcregor is to proud, you dont see people in the NBA throw underarm shots even thought its scientifically proven that this style will make you score more points, its just too embarrassing.

    - Nate diaz just need to be nate diaz to win. Mcregor cant keep the same pace for five rounds. Thompson actually startet to slow down before he won by that crazy high kick. Johnson had some success in round 1, but couldnt keep the pace or follow his gameplan either. And thats where i see the main problem for conor lies. In round 1 and round 2, fine. You can jump around, be elusive doing fancy smancy things. But, when the fights settles down, its trading, 1 on 1. Diaz will win, he decides the pace, a pace you cant keep up with, hes got the reach, hes got the boxing, and hes got the cardio. Thats why he should win this fight. Its basically a question of, will mcregor stand in front of him, or will he not? If he does, he will loose. i really wonder what kind of gameplan you can implement which doesnt include wrestling, or moving like a pussy to stay out of trouble but at the same time winning against diaz? I just cant see it.


    Re-watch Mcregor vs diaz 1, i really thought it was loopsided, but it was pretty close. So in a 5 round fight, mcregor fought close with diaz for 1 round, and then got smoked in round 2. Diaz perspective on this was that he was out of shape and not ready for the fight. In round 2, he settled down and got into the rhythm. If you watch all diaz fight, you know thats true.

    Im keeping my bet on diaz with larger confidence than before. And with a big questionmark in regards to what type of gameplan Mcregor has in store...
    Agreed with most of this. I think everyone knows at this point Diaz doesn't handle leg kicks and wrestling very well. That's why Dos Anjos and Ben Henderson beat him. Honestly, I don't think there is much uncertainty with Nate. Assuming he's in shape, you know what you are getting when you bet on Nate, as he is pretty consistent (again, when he's in shape). The only question mark i have about Nate is his media obligations this time around, which he said he doesn't like and it's distracting from training. Now this could be a big factor, but in all honestly it probably shouldn't be.

    I feel like the question marks are on Connor. Basically, can he actually put together a game plan to beat Nate? Can he successfully implement it in the fight? Can he keep it up for 5 rounds, winning at least 3 of them? It seems doubtful to me. Now, Connor can just choose to stand and trade with Nate, but i don't see how he can take 3 rounds from Nate. So Connor needs to circle/move a lot, work leg and body kicks, and stay out of the boxing range that Nate thrives in, while also holding back Nate (because you know Diaz is going to be in your face all fight). He needs to work in takedowns, which Nate oftens gives up because of his confidence with his jiu jitsu off his back. Basically, Connor may have the tools to beat Nate, but we have never seen him put it all together how he will need to to beat Nate. Nate needs to do what he always does to win, stay active and box his opponent up.

    I also think a small thing to take into consideration has to be Nate's talking in the cage, and Connor's ego. Most of us agree that Connor has to be patient and smart to win. Say he does that for a round or two effectively. With Nate talking his smack like always, taunting Connor, throwing in a few slaps, do you think Connor can stay composed for the rest of the fight and stay as effective. Nate is great at frustrating his opponents (with the above tactics, plus his reach, and volume of punches) and taking them out of their game plan. I just don't see how anyone can confidently bet McGregor in this fight.

    I haven't made any bets yet, but I will likely be on the OVER, and Nate straight. Small amount on Nate by Decision.

  16. #16
    JIBBBY
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    Very solid card ....

    - BIG ON NATE DIAZ straight and ITD!!!!

    - Rumble 1st round finish, hedge Glover straight..

    - Cowboy by UN decision
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  17. #17
    GoBlue77
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    entire forum on Nate lmao. ok...

  18. #18
    xagonzx
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    Quote Originally Posted by GoBlue77 View Post
    entire forum on Nate lmao. ok...
    Care to offer your reasoning for McGregor? Do you think it's a style match up in favor of him? Did you have a bet on the first fight?

  19. #19
    kmdubya
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    Quote Originally Posted by JIBBBY View Post
    Very solid card ....

    - BIG ON NATE DIAZ straight and ITD!!!!

    - Rumble 1st round finish, hedge Glover straight..

    - Cowboy by UN decision
    This man likes money.

    I think a Rumble 2nd Rnd KO is likely as well. I doubt Glover will be able to pressure Rumble enough to gas him at all. 1st Rnd might be hesitant for both as neither guy wants to get KTFO.

  20. #20
    bjpenn85
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    Quote Originally Posted by GoBlue77 View Post
    entire forum on Nate lmao. ok...
    With good reason, what do you think? You saw bisping beat rockhold, what do you see here?

  21. #21
    JIBBBY
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    Quote Originally Posted by Killer_Demo View Post
    Im Betting magny
    Larkin is tough IDK? You may want to look for Magny by decision for better odds as I don't think he can finish Larkin if he is to win this fight..

  22. #22
    JIBBBY
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    Quote Originally Posted by kmdubya View Post
    This man likes money.

    I think a Rumble 2nd Rnd KO is likely as well. I doubt Glover will be able to pressure Rumble enough to gas him at all. 1st Rnd might be hesitant for both as neither guy wants to get KTFO.
    Then Rumble by KO is the safer play if he is to win...

    1133 Johnson wins by TKO/KO -124


    Just the odds are much better on the 1st round finish if we are looking at hedge this fight against the Glover straight.... Rumble usually does come out aggressive and looks to finish or gas out...

    1121 Johnson wins in round 1 +150

  23. #23
    Demonata
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    I can't wait to bet mcgregor. Such good odds. Last fight was a fluke. Mcgregor can outstrike diaz. Probably knock him out.

  24. #24
    JIBBBY
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    Quote Originally Posted by Demonata View Post
    I can't wait to bet mcgregor. Such good odds. Last fight was a fluke. Mcgregor can outstrike diaz. Probably knock him out.
    A fluke my ass, Mcgregor was big and probably as strong as he has ever been going into that first fight. Took it to Nate and tried to knock him out.. Hit him with everything and Nate hung in and then Nate's cardio advantage took over.. Once he started landing those peppering long punches McGregor was done..

    Fight then hit the ground and it was over just like that because Nate has outstanding subs... Nothing McGregor can do better in this fight, he surely can't hit harder being smaller now, doubt he's gonna try to go out swinging early on either.. Nate picks him apart again with his boxing and length if it's a point contest.. Just that simple..

    Keep in mind Nate has a full training camp this go around and will even be a sharper fighter in this rematch.. McGregor only chance is to try and KO Nate again and hit him clean cold..

    Nate by KO or Sub again...

    Fighters to beat the Diaz bro's are strong wrestlers, not guys like McGregor with no ground.. It's hard to out work and out point the Diaz brothers standing.. Both have solid chins and big heart and refuse to get punked. They don't get tired either..
    Last edited by JIBBBY; 08-10-16 at 06:09 AM.

  25. #25
    GoBlue77
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    Quote Originally Posted by bjpenn85 View Post
    With good reason, what do you think? You saw bisping beat rockhold, what do you see here?
    i also saw JDS beat Rothwell when entire forum was drinking Rothwell koolaid, not to mention many others. nobody here takes down main events like i do, my edge is I'm patient and only bet certain fights.

    id wager to bet 90% of you on Nate Diaz had bet Aldo to beat McGregor.

    certain fights have zero to do with stylistic matchups, THIS is one of them, thats all I'm saying.

    good luck with your bets
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  26. #26
    Hugo de Naranja
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    Quote Originally Posted by GoBlue77 View Post
    i also saw JDS beat Rothwell when entire forum was drinking Rothwell koolaid, not to mention many others. nobody here takes down main events like i do, my edge is I'm patient and only bet certain fights.

    id wager to bet 90% of you on Nate Diaz had bet Aldo to beat McGregor.

    certain fights have zero to do with stylistic matchups, THIS is one of them, thats all I'm saying.

    good luck with your bets
    Conor can definitely win I just don't think he should be the favorite against a guy who beat him only a few months ago.

  27. #27
    Unwritten Law
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    Nate back to - minus odds as of now. Damn, I am hoping to get anything + a day before fight time.

  28. #28
    plekz
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    Quote Originally Posted by GoBlue77 View Post
    i also saw JDS beat Rothwell when entire forum was drinking Rothwell koolaid, not to mention many others. nobody here takes down main events like i do, my edge is I'm patient and only bet certain fights.

    id wager to bet 90% of you on Nate Diaz had bet Aldo to beat McGregor.

    certain fights have zero to do with stylistic matchups, THIS is one of them, thats all I'm saying.

    good luck with your bets
    so you lack the technical accumen to actually break down a fight is what you are saying? the fk are you even doing on this forum then?

    why don't you and your gay ass shark avatar go do something more productive? like finding nemo maybe.

  29. #29
    bjpenn85
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    Quote Originally Posted by GoBlue77 View Post
    i also saw JDS beat Rothwell when entire forum was drinking Rothwell koolaid, not to mention many others. nobody here takes down main events like i do, my edge is I'm patient and only bet certain fights.

    id wager to bet 90% of you on Nate Diaz had bet Aldo to beat McGregor.

    certain fights have zero to do with stylistic matchups, THIS is one of them, thats all I'm saying.

    good luck with your bets
    I can agree. This is more about one having an edge in experience, boxing, bjj and cardio. While cardio may be less relevant, its always a topic when fighting nate because he has really good cardio. Both fighters are good strikers and mcregor has the tools to beat diaz.

  30. #30
    plekz
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    Quote Originally Posted by bjpenn85 View Post
    I can agree. This is more about one having an edge in experience, boxing, bjj and cardio. While cardio may be less relevant, its always a topic when fighting nate because he has really good cardio. Both fighters are good strikers and mcregor has the tools to beat diaz.
    it's a case of someone being a frontrunner going up against a marathon type fighter, with the frontrunner showing signs of fatigue in previous fights. not to mention the fact that the marathon runner being longer,taller and having better reach.

    it's a case of conor either gets him out of there in the first 10 minutes or he gets his ass beat worse than last time, he either throws everything and the kitchen sink again and finds a sweet spot to ko diaz. or conor goes 0 - 2 against diaz.

    you can't fix the type of cardio he'd need in this little time, nor can you teach someone to become a entirely different fighter then they've been the last 10 years in less then 5 months either. he could have been doing epo every day and he'd still not have the cardio needed to take this to the scorecards. only way that'll happen is if he'd clipped diaz early the way dillashaw did barao, or cain did jds.

    nate is going to verbally abuse conor again, he'll treat him like sht every chance he gets, slap him, mock him you name it. and this is a guy in conor that wears lifts in his shoes and likes to pose barrelchested with arms out to the side to look ''brolic''

    any type of pscyhological advantage is non existant in this fight for conor, and that's been extremely important for him in previous fights.
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  31. #31
    Hugo de Naranja
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    Quote Originally Posted by plekz View Post
    it's a case of someone being a frontrunner going up against a marathon type fighter, with the frontrunner showing signs of fatigue in previous fights. not to mention the fact that the marathon runner being longer,taller and having better reach.

    it's a case of conor either gets him out of there in the first 10 minutes or he gets his ass beat worse than last time, he either throws everything and the kitchen sink again and finds a sweet spot to ko diaz. or conor goes 0 - 2 against diaz.

    you can't fix the type of cardio he'd need in this little time, nor can you teach someone to become a entirely different fighter then they've been the last 10 years in less then 5 months either. he could have been doing epo every day and he'd still not have the cardio needed to take this to the scorecards. only way that'll happen is if he'd clipped diaz early the way dillashaw did barao, or cain did jds.

    nate is going to verbally abuse conor again, he'll treat him like sht every chance he gets, slap him, mock him you name it. and this is a guy in conor that wears lifts in his shoes and likes to pose barrelchested with arms out to the side to look ''brolic''

    any type of pscyhological advantage is non existant in this fight for conor, and that's been extremely important for him in previous fights.
    Good points plekz

  32. #32
    plekz
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    and that's without even mentioning the grappling or physical aspects, mcgregor cuts from 174 (ish) tops. diaz cuts from above or near 200. we all saw how much success conor had in the clinch last time (none) and the disparity in grappling? that's years apart.

    there's no way conor gets nate to show him respect either, benson was beating diaz from pillar to post and diaz was still in there mocking him and giving him the finger, hell even when thomson hellblitzed diaz, nate still didn't give him an inch respect.

    let me ask all of you this, as soon as nate found his distance last time and got into his rythm, he was hurting conor with the shots he threw. what makes anyone think he won't be able to this time? he hurt him to the body and to the head, and conor didn't react well to either.

  33. #33
    bjpenn85
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    Quote Originally Posted by plekz View Post
    and that's without even mentioning the grappling or physical aspects, mcgregor cuts from 174 (ish) tops. diaz cuts from above or near 200. we all saw how much success conor had in the clinch last time (none) and the disparity in grappling? that's years apart.

    there's no way conor gets nate to show him respect either, benson was beating diaz from pillar to post and diaz was still in there mocking him and giving him the finger, hell even when thomson hellblitzed diaz, nate still didn't give him an inch respect.

    let me ask all of you this, as soon as nate found his distance last time and got into his rythm, he was hurting conor with the shots he threw. what makes anyone think he won't be able to this time? he hurt him to the body and to the head, and conor didn't react well to either.
    And the mental aspect. I also forgot that. The line should possibly be -200 to -150 ish. But the line is flipped. If youre not sold on Diaz, you should at least consider just betting on a faulty line. The line is set like this because of public opinion. Mcregor should not be the favourite in this matchup, especially not based on the first fight.

  34. #34
    JIBBBY
    JIBBBY's Avatar SBR PRO
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    Nate has better boxing, has way better ground, has much better cardio then McGregor.. Is the longer fighter with a better chin as well..

    Cards are REALLY stacked up against McGregor with Nate having a full training camp and not coming in on short notice this go around.. Nate will probably be in better shape this fight which is a scary thought to consider for McGregor.. Remember this is a 5 round fight also..

    McGregor has mainly been a 1 round fighter his entire MMA career. A knock out artist of sorts.. Only problem with fighting Nate is McGregor won't be able to knock him out..

    Nate should be a 3-1 favorite as far as I'm concerned...

  35. #35
    Thrilla
    Goater a Legend
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    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/UFC_202




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