[firekillex]

porier matches up great with tony ferguson imo.... would be a great offensive battle
it will all matter when khabib moves up, im very sure hell move to 170 soon but it just depends if itll be end of 2018 or in early 2019

plus health is a big thing ... people keep sleeping on porier because hes been stopped a few times... but hes made HUGE strides in his game ive been extremely impressed with him lately, it all depends on matchups really thats the name of the game

if porier got matched up say with barbosa then i wouldnt love that matchup for him

[strictlypaypal]

Anybody see oezdemir beating cormier? Seems like a weird spot but i think hes very live. Cormier obviously is very valued and should be but i think this is can be an extremely dangerous spot coming off a ko and seems to sort of be overlooking oez (although corm acts like that all the time.) and idk how much weight you put on rockhold training with oezdemir and the mystery behind his ground game which i think also shows in the odds. He could be terrible or he could be more than able and also have more heart than rumble. +260 looks nice

[Hugo de Naranja]

Anybody see oezdemir beating cormier? Seems like a weird spot but i think hes very live. Cormier obviously is very valued and should be but i think this is can be an extremely dangerous spot coming off a ko and seems to sort of be overlooking oez (although corm acts like that all the time.) and idk how much weight you put on rockhold training with oezdemir and the mystery behind his ground game which i think also shows in the odds. He could be terrible or he could be more than able and also have more heart than rumble. +260 looks nice

I think Cormier absolutely murks Oezdemir in the wrestling OR Oezdemir gets a knockout, likely in the early rounds if he's going to get it. Volkan's TDD looked pretty bad when he fought Kelly Anundson in Bellator (got taken down 10+ times and finished). The fact that Rockhold is training with Oezdemir is good point and something that I hadn't considered.

[strictlypaypal]

Do you think cormier messes around on the feet a little or goes straight for the TD? I was watching some breakdowns of oez’s power on youtube, its not something that shoots out at you but very real and technique oriented as to where rumble is well rumble. Kinda wanna mess around with an oez parlay with ngannou. Hugo, do you think the line is on the dot or see more value on a certain side. I just got a funny feeling about this one.

Also khabib tweeted big news coming. Hopefully khabib vs ferguson 4

[strictlypaypal]

Oh dear god just watched that first round in that bellator fight. That was terrible stuff. Can only wonder how much better hes gotten since 2014

[firekillex]

I think Cormier absolutely murks Oezdemir in the wrestling OR Oezdemir gets a knockout, likely in the early rounds if he's going to get it. Volkan's TDD looked pretty bad when he fought Kelly Anundson in Bellator (got taken down 10+ times and finished). The fact that Rockhold is training with Oezdemir is good point and something that I hadn't considered.

guaranteed rockhold would not actually help or give advice how to beat cormier... wouldnt be surprised if low key he is giving intel to cormier how to beat volkan TBH

cormier is going to starch oezdemir , will look like the anthony johnson fight but even easier i think

rd 2 submission

[Hugo de Naranja]

Do you think cormier messes around on the feet a little or goes straight for the TD? I was watching some breakdowns of oez’s power on youtube, its not something that shoots out at you but very real and technique oriented as to where rumble is well rumble. Kinda wanna mess around with an oez parlay with ngannou. Hugo, do you think the line is on the dot or see more value on a certain side. I just got a funny feeling about this one.

Also khabib tweeted big news coming. Hopefully khabib vs ferguson 4

I’m planning to play Cormier -5.5 hedged by Volkan KO. I think the ML odds are set okay with no big value on either side.

[Hugo de Naranja]

Also I think Cormier goes right for the TD.

[Slevin07]

Whittaker out of 221, that sucks. Had big bets on him. Rockhold vs Romero now.

[firekillex]

wake up whittaker out and uriah hall out
smh

[Hugo de Naranja]

Whittaker out of 221, that sucks. Had big bets on him. Rockhold vs Romero now.

At least we get a solid replacement scrap. Then either Whittaker vs. Rockhold or Whittaker vs. Romero II.

[Sato]

At least we get a solid replacement scrap. Then either Whittaker vs. Rockhold or Whittaker vs. Romero II.

Who you got Yolo or Luke?

[firekillex]

rockhold will beat yoel romero

[Hugo de Naranja]

Who you got Yolo or Luke?

Probably Luke Rockhold but Romero is live to win by knockout.

[Slevin07]

At least we get a solid replacement scrap. Then either Whittaker vs. Rockhold or Whittaker vs. Romero II.

True. Rockhold has a hole in his game which is fighting while being pressured. His boxing isn't good, you have to pressure to take his kicks away. And have good tdd, because rockhold is dangerous when getting mount. I got Whittaker over him easily. Gotta watch some tape, Romero needs to pressure and how well can he box?

[Hugo de Naranja]

True. Rockhold has a hole in his game which is fighting while being pressured. His boxing isn't good, you have to pressure to take his kicks away. And have good tdd, because rockhold is dangerous when getting mount. I got Whittaker over him easily. Gotta watch some tape, Romero needs to pressure and how well can he box?

He's a solid boxer. Excellent flying knees and big power in every strike.

[Sato]

Luke is the better fighter everywhere BUT Yoel has more power and that could put him away if he clips him. I feel this a good live bet fight.

[Hugo de Naranja]

Luke is the better fighter everywhere BUT Yoel has more power and that could put him away if he clips him. I feel this a good live bet fight.

Agreed.

[Hugo de Naranja]

Invicta 27 Bet:
Cheri Muraski (+140) 1u

[firekillex]

rumor is tony ferguson vs khabib ufc 223 brooklyn for the undisputed lightweight championship
Mcgregor will be stripped


tough fight.... ive been thinking Big ferg would win this fight for so long, but after seeing him take that GNP against Kevin Lee and Khabibs GNP lately im starting to lean the other side... very tough fight to call if this actually happens this time

Tony has those nasty elbows off the bottom, unreal scrambles and submissions .... but khabibs take downs and GNP are just some next level shitt ...


this fight is gonna be fireworks

[Hugo de Naranja]

rumor is tony ferguson vs khabib ufc 223 brooklyn for the undisputed lightweight championship
Mcgregor will be stripped


tough fight.... ive been thinking Big ferg would win this fight for so long, but after seeing him take that GNP against Kevin Lee and Khabibs GNP lately im starting to lean the other side... very tough fight to call if this actually happens this time

Tony has those nasty elbows off the bottom, unreal scrambles and submissions .... but khabibs take downs and GNP are just some next level shitt ...


this fight is gonna be fireworks

Let’s hope it actually happens.

[firekillex]

Let’s hope it actually happens.

i for some reason think this time its actually going to happen...
well see though , been through this so many times its hard to believe

[turbozed]

I’m planning to play Cormier -5.5 hedged by Volkan KO. I think the ML odds are set okay with no big value on either side.

This seems like the right play to me. I've been burned by Volkan twice before in the past so I'm a bit gunshy but I remember betting OSP pretty heavy against him because he didn't even look UFC level in his fights before that. Shows how much I know because the guy is now fighting for the title. I'm sure Volkan has gotten a lot better, but I can't believe he's gotten THAT much better in 2 years.

[turbozed]

John Danaher posted something about the 3 keys to CONTROL and win a fight on instagram. I thought it was a useful perspective to keep in mind when capping fights so I broke it down from one single block paragraph to note-form. I'm sharing with you guys just in case any of you are interested:


THE THREE GREAT KEYS TO COMBAT: Of all the activities that humans can partake in, none is more chaotic and unpredictable than fighting. THE WHOLE PURPOSE OF MARTIAL ARTS IS TO USE KNOWLEDGE AND TRAINING TO CONTROL THE OUTCOME OF COMBAT - TO CONTROL CHAOS.


The history of combat sports clearly show that there are definite limits in our ability to do this. IN A WORLD OF UNCERTAINTY THE BEST WE CAN DO IS TO STACK THE ODDS IN OUR FAVOR AS BEST WE CAN.


When I coach, I constantly stress to my athletes the need to assert themselves in three critical aspects of combat sports that play a huge role in determining the probability of the outcome.


The athlete who can control:

(1) the DIRECTION of the fight;

(2) the PACE of a fight; and

(3) control the SET UPS and precursors to the main moves used by both athletes
will win the vast majority of the matches he or she enters.


This a huge topic that cannot be addressed in an Instagram post, but I shall give a simplified example. Georges St-Pierre is a quintessential example of an athlete who career was built around the three general keys to combat. Mr St-Pierre almost always was able to immediately dictate the most basic direction of a fight.


(1) DIRECTION - If he wanted it on the floor he could put it there at will with his double leg. If he wanted it to remain standing, he was notoriously difficult to take down and hold down.


(2) PACE - With regards pace, he was always capable of slowing a match on the fence and tiring a dangerous puncher there. He could always return to center octagon and increase speed and generate movement that would set up double legs in the open.


(3) SET UPS - With regards set ups, in standing position, he had a complete arsenal of feints, misdirections, jabs and linked Superman punches that enabled him to use his king weapon, the double leg. On the floor he had an elaborate collection of protocols and striking from guard that created pressure to set up his Queen weapon, strong striking allied to guard passing that led either to submission,TKO or a dominance that won the round. In the chaos of fighting, we can never fully determine the outcome, but devoting your time to the study of these three key aspects of combat will always give you your best chance

[Slevin07]

Thoughts on Jacare vs Brunson 2 next week? Jacare won the first time, quick in round 1 via punches. Brunson has a wrestling background, which is the only thing stopping me from unloading on Jacare. Still think he'll win, but if he could easily grapple I would have been on it bigger.

[Hugo de Naranja]

Thoughts on Jacare vs Brunson 2 next week? Jacare won the first time, quick in round 1 via punches. Brunson has a wrestling background, which is the only thing stopping me from unloading on Jacare. Still think he'll win, but if he could easily grapple I would have been on it bigger.

Brunson has 100% TDD in a pretty long UFC career. I think he KO's Jacare here

[Slevin07]

Brunson has 100% TDD in a pretty long UFC career. I think he KO's Jacare here

I guess when they first fought, it was early in Brunson's career and he's learned a lot since then. Won't rush recklessly like against Whittaker, or even Jacare. I'll have to watch more tape, Brunson vs Silva and some others.

[Hugo de Naranja]

I guess when they first fought, it was early in Brunson's career and he's learned a lot since then. Won't rush recklessly like against Whittaker, or even Jacare. I'll have to watch more tape, Brunson vs Silva and some others.

He could still rush in but I think he might get it done here. Jacare by KO could also be good since I think this fight will stay standing and Brunson is known for fighting wild.

[Slevin07]

dc vs stipe at ufc 226. I'm a fan of both. Good wrestlers and boxers, both can take a punch (ngannou, rumble). Think Stipe has slight advantages at first thought.

[Hugo de Naranja]

dc vs stipe at ufc 226. I'm a fan of both. Good wrestlers and boxers, both can take a punch (ngannou, rumble). Think Stipe has slight advantages at first thought.

I feel this same way. Slight initial lean to Stipe but Cormier is very live. Should be a good scrap. How do you think they will line it?

[BELM0NT]

Hard to pick a winner between dc and stipe I think fight going distance or over 2.5?

[firekillex]

will be taking DC over Stipe if hes anything over +175

[Hugo de Naranja]

will be taking DC over Stipe if hes anything over +175

I'm guessing the line will be
Miocic (-150)
Cormier (+130)

[firekillex]

I'm guessing the line will be
Miocic (-150)
Cormier (+130)

wouldnt be surprised at that line .... i think DC might get up to +150 range... ill still go on that but not as big...
tough fight , but i really think DC can take anybody down and he has huge power, itll be a tough scrap though, Stipes hands look very crisp lately and DC struggled a bit to get Volkan down


I hope DC can win this fight, then retires ... Cain comes back end of year and fights Stipe for the vacant title

[Hugo de Naranja]

wouldnt be surprised at that line .... i think DC might get up to +150 range... ill still go on that but not as big...
tough fight , but i really think DC can take anybody down and he has huge power, itll be a tough scrap though, Stipes hands look very crisp lately and DC struggled a bit to get Volkan down


I hope DC can win this fight, then retires ... Cain comes back end of year and fights Stipe for the vacant title

This sounds like DC's plan. No way that he (Cormier) fights Cain for the title at any point imo.