[firekillex]

Whittaker (+100) 5u

ill be with you on this... damn im seeing -115 though

[Hugo de Naranja]

ill be with you on this... damn im seeing -115 though

It got bet down. Was (+120) or better on some offshore books.

[Shagdogy]

Really getting hyped for UFC 213. What fights are you guys most looking forward to?

Just booked my flight and got tickets to 213. Didn't wanna miss this card. Gonna be SICK! I haven't done any specific studying up yet, but I think I'm gonna be with you on Whittaker big. I don't like Romero's chances to get much done on the feet, and even if he's the first to grab Whittaker and put him on the mat, he probably wont finish him there. If he can't put Whittaker away, then how does he survive the later rounds when Whittaker is sure to pepper him up?

I'm so excited for this card. Need to get my capping on point so I can clean up on this trip!

[Hugo de Naranja]

Whittaker is back to (+100) on 5Dimes

[Shagdogy]

Big movement on Whittaker... sitting between -140-150 now.

[Shagdogy]

TUF Finale, Johnson vs. Gaethje. Looks like a bad matchup for Gaethje if you ask me. Just catching up on him. His record is impressive, but watching his last fight, OMG he has no striking defense at all other than a giant brick for a head. Michael Johnson is so good at using his range on the feet, and he's so fast, I can't see Gaethje doing much but whiffing and taking crisp shots to the face. He obviously has some big power but Johnson can take a shot and has never been KO'd. Also, cardio looks to be a big advantage for Johnson. You also have to factor that it's UFC debut for Gaethje and if his adrenaline drops out he may gas even worse than his last fight vs. Firmino. All things considered, Johnson wins easy. Thoughts?

[Hugo de Naranja]

Big movement on Whittaker... sitting between -140-150 now.

Yeah I'm definitely happy with my price there. Took Whittaker Decision (+505) for a unit today as well. Think it's more likely he gets a KO but Decision is value over ITD at (+110)

[Hugo de Naranja]

TUF Finale, Johnson vs. Gaethje. Looks like a bad matchup for Gaethje if you ask me. Just catching up on him. His record is impressive, but watching his last fight, OMG he has no striking defense at all other than a giant brick for a head. Michael Johnson is so good at using his range on the feet, and he's so fast, I can't see Gaethje doing much but whiffing and taking crisp shots to the face. He obviously has some big power but Johnson can take a shot and has never been KO'd. Also, cardio looks to be a big advantage for Johnson. You also have to factor that it's UFC debut for Gaethje and if his adrenaline drops out he may gas even worse than his last fight vs. Firmino. All things considered, Johnson wins easy. Thoughts?

Agree that it's a bad matchup for Gaethje and he could get stopped in the first two rounds. Strongly disagree that cardio is a big advantage for Johnson. Gaethje gasses but like Yoel Romero, he is effective at fighting when gassed. Johnson gasses and loses focus. He loses the late rounds in most of his fights and has also been finished late multiple times (Khabib and Madadi in the UFC, some other guys on regional scene). Gaethje also has good wrestling in his back pocket but he rarely uses it. Interested to see where the bookies open this one. Any guess?

[Shagdogy]

Yeah I'm definitely happy with my price there. Took Whittaker Decision (+505) for a unit today as well. Think it's more likely he gets a KO but Decision is value over ITD at (+110)

Yeah I haven't gotten on Whittaker yet because I'm gonna be in Vegas and wanted to get some cash on him. Hope this line stays put or moves back a little.

[Hugo de Naranja]

Yeah I haven't gotten on Whittaker yet because I'm gonna be in Vegas and wanted to get some cash on him. Hope this line stays put or moves back a little.

I just got back from Vegas myself. Have fun out there bud. Hope we cash some bets!

[Shagdogy]

Agree that it's a bad matchup for Gaethje and he could get stopped in the first two rounds. Strongly disagree that cardio is a big advantage for Johnson. Gaethje gasses but like Yoel Romero, he is effective at fighting when gassed. Johnson gasses and loses focus. He loses the late rounds in most of his fights and has also been finished late multiple times (Khabib and Madadi in the UFC, some other guys on regional scene). Gaethje also has good wrestling in his back pocket but he rarely uses it. Interested to see where the bookies open this one. Any guess?

Not really sure where to expect this line. Your cardio assessment is interesting. I saw that Khabib fight differently. Thought Johnson was simply outclassed in the grappling, and absorbed a TON of damage, but still had some decent movement to start the 3rd. Meanwhile Gaethje took a ton of damage vs Firmino and he noticeably slowed down and stopped moving his head completely. Was easy target practice for Firmino for a while. Yes, Gaethje keeps his power, but as long as Johnson keeps the speed advantage and ability to move, he should be ok.

Gonna go back and watch Johnson a bit more closely late in fights. Gaethje is hard to put away and has good power until the end.

[firekillex]

IF woodley beats Maia , how do you think he matches up with GSP??
and who do you think GSP has a better shot at beating Maia or Tyron???

[Hugo de Naranja]

Not really sure where to expect this line. Your cardio assessment is interesting. I saw that Khabib fight differently. Thought Johnson was simply outclassed in the grappling, and absorbed a TON of damage, but still had some decent movement to start the 3rd. Meanwhile Gaethje took a ton of damage vs Firmino and he noticeably slowed down and stopped moving his head completely. Was easy target practice for Firmino for a while. Yes, Gaethje keeps his power, but as long as Johnson keeps the speed advantage and ability to move, he should be ok.

Gonna go back and watch Johnson a bit more closely late in fights. Gaethje is hard to put away and has good power until the end.

I don't think the Khabib loss was necessarily about gassing, just pointing out that he's been finished later in fights, something Gaethje is great at. Check out Johnson's fight with Diaz. In my view, he won the first clearly, then got tired and frustrated and fought Diaz' fight.

[Demonata]

Anybody able to find any of the odds for the ultimate fighter finale fights?or not posted till next week?

[Hugo de Naranja]

IF woodley beats Maia , how do you think he matches up with GSP??
and who do you think GSP has a better shot at beating Maia or Tyron???

I would bet Woodley at dog odds against GSP because I think he is a bad matchup and the game has changed too much for GSP to overcome a bad style matchup against a sitting champion. I think GSP has a better shot at beating Maia.

[Hugo de Naranja]

Anybody able to find any of the odds for the ultimate fighter finale fights?or not posted till next week?

Not up yet. Probably a few days out still

[Demonata]

IF woodley beats Maia , how do you think he matches up with GSP??
and who do you think GSP has a better shot at beating Maia or Tyron???

You mean when woodley beats maia I will pick gsp, one if my favorite fighters ever and when he gets you on the ground you stay there. Amazing at takedowns too. Just his wrestling is so amazing. Tough as hell too. Gso better chance against maia. Gsp is not scared of anything that has to do with him on the ground.

[firekillex]

agree me and a friend were arguing he thinks GSPs cardio wins the matchup 10/10 times against Woodley, i think tyron kills him imo

[Shagdogy]

I don't think the Khabib loss was necessarily about gassing, just pointing out that he's been finished later in fights, something Gaethje is great at. Check out Johnson's fight with Diaz. In my view, he won the first clearly, then got tired and frustrated and fought Diaz' fight.

Yeah that Diaz fight was a big reason why I liked Johnson so much in this spot. Yes, Nate had him frustrated, but he did it with tools that Gaethje doesn't have. Johnson's great at using distance, but he didn't have the reach and length vs Diaz. Diaz constantly snapped his jab and 1-2 combo in Johnson's face, and then did a great job of hiding behind his shoulder and moving his head so Johnson struggled to hit him. Never seen Johnson miss on so many punches as he did that fight. BUT... Gaethje doesn't have Nate's length. He doesn't have Nate's crispness in his strikes. He doesn't have the boxing defense, shoulder roll/head movement that Nate has. Everything Nate did to frustrate Johnson, I don't think Gaethje can or will do.

I think it will look like the first half of rd 1 vs Khabib where Johnson will be the longer and more crisp guy, just landing and moving all over the cage. Unlike Khabib, however I don't think Gaethje takes him down.

[Shagdogy]

Any thoughts on Jordan Johnson/Marcel Fortuna? Both guys looked to have some improved striking in their UFC debuts. I was particularly impressed with how far it looks like Fortuna's striking came in a long layoff prior to UFC. I was surprised he KO'd Hamilton at heavyweight. BUT... I think Johnson's takedowns will be too much. He is relentless with those and very good in scrambles as well. Fortuna's TDD hasn't been great in the past and I doubt he subs Johnson.

[Hugo de Naranja]

Any thoughts on Jordan Johnson/Marcel Fortuna? Both guys looked to have some improved striking in their UFC debuts. I was particularly impressed with how far it looks like Fortuna's striking came in a long layoff prior to UFC. I was surprised he KO'd Hamilton at heavyweight. BUT... I think Johnson's takedowns will be too much. He is relentless with those and very good in scrambles as well. Fortuna's TDD hasn't been great in the past and I doubt he subs Johnson.

Johnson all the way here. His wrestling is very high level and I think he will beat a lot of LHWs

[firekillex]

i think Justin Gaetjhe is going to surprise people here, him and johnson matchup super well together though its going to be a back and forth battle imo, i could see a tight decision happening here for either guy... tough fight to call

[Shagdogy]

Johnson all the way here. His wrestling is very high level and I think he will beat a lot of LHWs

Agreed. And after watching some more of Fortuna, he gives ups takedowns way too easily and doesn't threaten from the bottom. He needs top game (which he won't get against Johnson) or to take the back. Johnson should dictate this fight. Decision win, likely 30-27.

[Wohlford]

No idea what to think of Gaethje. I've seen like 3 WSOF fights ever.

I looked up his highlights and was surprised to see that some of his best moments came against A ONE ARMED MAN. I shit you not. With this level of competition, you really never know.



Edit: See, for example, the 3:27 mark of this video.

[Shagdogy]

Interesting... just watched this interview and Johnson says exactly what I was thinking/hoping. He knows he needs to watch out for power. Thinks he can frustrate Gaethje with his speed and movement. Then he talks about Nate and Khabib - says Nate was able to deal with his speed because he's so long (Gaethje isn't), and Khabib got him because he's freaking Khabib (Gaethje isn't, obv.). Johnson seems pretty level headed coming in, and even better he seems to recognize how to approach this fight.

[Hugo de Naranja]

PFL 1: Fitch vs. Foster Picks:
Caros Fodor Round 1 Submission (Guillotine Choke)
Smealinho Rama Round 2 TKO (Punches)
Joao Zeferino Round 1 Submission (Heel Hook)
Jon Fitch Unanimous Decision (30-27 x2, 30-26)

[Hugo de Naranja]

PFL 1: Fitch vs. Foster

Fight #1: High vs. Fodor
Fodor (+248) 2u

Fight #2: Rama vs. Markes
Rama ITD (-105) .525u to win .5u

Fight #3: Zeferino vs. Terrazzo
No Bet

Fight #4: Fitch vs. Foster
Fitch Decision (-113) 1.13u to win 1u

[Hugo de Naranja]

Picks and bets are for Professional Fighters League 1, the successor organization to WSOF

[Ty$]

I already bet that the Fitch fight won't go 5 ... and no way it does ... Fitch gets a sub or he gets knocked out.

[Hugo de Naranja]

I already bet that the Fitch fight won't go 5 ... and no way it does ... Fitch gets a sub or he gets knocked out.

Fitch hasn't finished anyone since 2007. I'm aware Foster almost never goes to decision but I think Fitch is going to lay-and-pray him here

[Ty$]

Well see... sharp money is on no decision.. I hit it @+105 and it's -140 now

[Ty$]

That's not the way Foster fights he finishes or finds a way out.

[Hugo de Naranja]

You nailed it bud. Good call. Foster seemed to quit there

[Ty$]

Told you homie see how fast Foster tapped

[Ty$]

My tv schedule was whack... I caught the end