1. #1
    velcorr
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    UFC Fight Night 91 - McDonald vs. Lineker
    Wednesday, July 13


    These are not picks (except one at the end, just my thoughts 2+ days out) Hoping to get more info and insight from other MMA fans on here. As usual, please be respectful and if you don't like my or someone else's opinion or pick, don't use it and go have a Jelly sandwich.

    Will be prop betting most of this card, but I can't find good prop prices yet. They will be taken into consideration when I post my official picks.

    All lines Heritage except Spicely/Alvery because Heritage didn't have it. Shop around of course.

    Monday's leans in order of value confidence: Olinyk, Alvey, Holtzman, Ngyuen, Nakamura, McDonald and Ferguson, obviously at almost -800. I have prop leans for every fight but have no prop prices except OU's.

    Leaning Linekar (-180) vs Michael McDonald (+160)

    To beat Linekar, you have to beat him on his feet because he's really hard to hold down. Macdonald's striking game has never impressed me. Linekar has a height and reach disadvantages but it doesn't seem to influence his matches. MacDonald has not exactly been active. He is well rounded but after watching every one of their fights on fight pass, I don't see value on either side yet. Linekar hasn't really been in any hardcore exchanges but on the flip side, MacDonald lost to Faber, which is an auto-flag to me. Macdonald has to get this to the ground to win. His wrestling is not great, I could see him pulling gaurd. McDonald has good cardio. Still, I watched hours of these two fight and Linekar just seems to be the better fighter, but he is jumping up in weight. Bah! Still trying to find the value on this fight. I'm leaning McDonald as a dog but I need more time. Gun to my head right now, McDonald by sub.

    Tony Ferguson (-780) vs Landon Vannata (+480)

    Ferguson should win this fight easily, he's on a title run, he's fighting an undefeated but untested Winkleton/Jackson kid, on short notice. The price is way too high for me, I'm leaning u1.5 @ -110. Ferguson either keeps on truckin' with a dominating finish or Vannata shocks the world with something in the first round. This has dog or pass written all over it, no way Ferguson's reckless style makes him -780 invulnerable, and while I think he's a strong Top 5, I think he's a bit overrated. He's a great striker, but he's also due to pay for some of the risks he takes. His sub game is a result of his striking, not his BJJ. I want to bet this fight but I'll still need more time to justify any prop. Curious about what other's have to think on this one.

    Scott Holtzmam (-320) vs. Cody Pfister (+260)

    Holtzman all day. I don't think Pfister belongs in the UFC. UD or finish. Gotta watch more film before I make a possible prop pick. I'm considering Holtzman at that price or part of a parlay.

    Eric Spicely (+200) vs. Sam Alvey (-278)

    This is a mismatch, and I'm being nice. Spicely has no stand up vs Alvey, who has KO power. Alvey is coming off a boring stand-up truce decsion loss to Elias Theodorou, only two months ago. Doesn't matter. I'm leaning a prop on Alvey by first round finish, or certainly Alvey by finish.

    Louis Smolka (+100) vs. Ben Nguyen (-120)

    Smolka's striking looks pretty weak. Nguyen is the more consistent fighter and the better striker. I think he's better on the ground too, though that is certainly debatable. Nguyen is big for the division and flying under a lot of people's radar. I really like Nguyen at that price.

    Kyle Noke (-180) vs. Keita Nakamura (+160)

    Noke's submission defence and wrestling is heinously bad. Nakamura is a red belt in comparison. Nakamura's stand up isn't all that hot but he's not afraid to brawl, and I see him instigating a lot of scramble opportunities and finish him on the ground.

    Daniel Omielańczuk (+175) vs. Oleksiy Oliynyk (-200)

    This fight makes no sense to me. How is Omielańczuk in the UFC? Oh yeah, it's the HW division. Oliynyk will look like prime Cain Valezquez compared to Omielańczuk. Oliynk by finish.

    Still waiting on prop prices....

    Thoughts? The main card is contentious to say the least.

    NO OFFICIAL PICKS YET EXCEPT ONE AND IT IS MY LOCK

    Oleksiy Oliynyk def Daniel Omielańczuk. 2 UNITS to win 1 UNIT

    I will be propping this for Oliynyk to finish once I can get a price on it. You can tail that but for now, I can only make an official pick on the winner. Oliynyk. I predict the line will move away from -200 (Heritage) to more like -300 by the time of the fight so I'm already getting some down on it now, and will put more on a finish prop when I can.

    Stay tuned, official picks coming ASAP. It's always that battle of info vs line price.

    BOL
    Last edited by velcorr; 07-11-16 at 01:45 PM.

  2. #2
    Redman3693
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    ThanX for the write-ups Mate.

    I'm looking fwd to seeing what your final pix are.

    Cheers & BOL

  3. #3
    vegaschulo
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    Same here I'll wait till you got your official picks Velcorr..BOL

  4. #4
    BIGDAY
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    Hard to bet against MacDonald. Guy finds ways to win. Raw talent.

  5. #5
    Altern8
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    Can Landon Vannata get the win? Are we going to see an upset like we did with Miesha Tate! I need one of those sell your house and put it on Brock Lesnar type of plays.

  6. #6
    Smoke
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    good stuff velcro

  7. #7
    velcorr
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    Lesnar was a slight dog and an easy pick. Vannata hasn't even fought in the UFC. He doesn't even have a wikipedia page. Anyone who would suggest others to invest a lot of their valuable bankroll on a fighter like that to beat the number 3 ranked LW in the UFC who is on a seven fight win streak in the toughest division in MMA and his last win was over Edson Barboza, whom just essentially made former champ Anthony Pettis essentially irrelevant and might be (Barboza) the best raw talent in the LW division, would be nuts. Sorry for the run on sentence.

    The reason I made it such is if you google tape on Vannata, realize he's 8-0 with only 1 win NOT in the first round, a Jackson/Winkleton product, with half his wins coming from submission, you could probably talk yourself into betting him as a live dog. The line certainly isn't going to move closer to him, so if you were to make a play, wait until weigh-ins and see how he looks first. Those weigh ins, now that they've become fashion shows for Reebok since they weigh in early and are partially re-hydrated when you see them, have become informative, check the line, and make a play on him to finish by any means, including DQ. There is no way he decisions TF. I personally don't see him as a live dog, he almost lost to J.P. Reese (google him). The only way I could see him winning is TF losing. Vannata is taking this on late notice, and TF probably isn't gameplanning for this kid, so it begs the question, "How seriously will TF take this fight?"
    So, if Vannata wins a bet, that'll be how. Not worth it for +600 or whatever the finish prop would be.

    I want to bet on this fight, but it screams dog or pass. Non O/U props are still not out. I don't see any value in the O/U 1.5 @ -110.

    I already gave a lock but -200 isn't as sexy as +130 to +170 like Lesnar. I'll put together a nice plus money parlay for you that you can bet the house on and get paid. Peace.
    Quote Originally Posted by Altern8 View Post
    Can Landon Vannata get the win? Are we going to see an upset like we did with Miesha Tate! I need one of those sell your house and put it on Brock Lesnar type of plays.
    Last edited by velcorr; 07-11-16 at 06:27 PM.

  8. #8
    jjgold
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    Tremendous write up Velcro

  9. #9
    velcorr
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    This is true. He's had two and a half years to improve since that Faber loss, and he's only 25. I just wish he had one credible win. Kanehara certainly doesn't count. Then again, Linkner hasn't exactly built up an exceptional resume either. McDonald by sub or by dec seems like the play but watching all of their fights has made me second guess this style match-up.
    Quote Originally Posted by BIGDAY View Post
    Hard to bet against MacDonald. Guy finds ways to win. Raw talent.

  10. #10
    Hugo de Naranja
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    Quote Originally Posted by velcorr View Post
    This is true. He's had two and a half years to improve since that Faber loss, and he's only 25. I just wish he had one credible win. Kanehara certainly doesn't count. Then again, Linkner hasn't exactly built up an exceptional resume either. McDonald by sub or by dec seems like the play but watching all of their fights has made me second guess this style match-up.
    Macdonald was losing to Kanehara for most of the fight before reversing a choke and getting the sub. Don't think he KOs or outpoints Lineker so sub is a good play if you like MacDonald.

  11. #11
    velcorr
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    I agree and that Kanehara fight is what took all the steam out of McDonald's hype. It's McDonald by sub if you like McDonald, and I still can't find a prop price for that. I spent yesterday watching McDonald and Linkners last four or five fights, each, and my gut is saying Linkner takes this. Really tough fight to handicap, so many variables. I think a lot of the money that will go on McDonald hasn't watched too many (if any) Linkner fights. I'm still probing this fight but I've been leaning back and forth all day. Linkner isn't -180 for nothing. On paper, McDonald should have this but I think the books believe Linkner is the better fighter and want money on McDonald. I find trying to work the line out backwards can sometimes help break deadlocks in your own personal handicapping. IE, if Vegas thought Lesnar was going to lose easily but that the public would bet Hunt, the line wouldn't have opened at +170, hence the line being near pick em an hour before the fight. I'm starting to think the smart betting play is to pass on this fight. There is plenty of value on the undercard.
    Quote Originally Posted by Hugo de Naranja View Post
    Macdonald was losing to Kanehara for most of the fight before reversing a choke and getting the sub. Don't think he KOs or outpoints Lineker so sub is a good play if you like MacDonald.

  12. #12
    Hugo de Naranja
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    Quote Originally Posted by velcorr View Post
    I agree and that Kanehara fight is what took all the steam out of McDonald's hype. It's McDonald by sub if you like McDonald, and I still can't find a prop price for that. I spent yesterday watching McDonald and Linkners last four or five fights, each, and my gut is saying Linkner takes this. Really tough fight to handicap, so many variables. I think a lot of the money that will go on McDonald hasn't watched too many (if any) Linkner fights. I'm still probing this fight but I've been leaning back and forth all day. Linkner isn't -180 for nothing. On paper, McDonald should have this but I think the books believe Linkner is the better fighter and want money on McDonald. I find trying to work the line out backwards can sometimes help break deadlocks in your own personal handicapping. IE, if Vegas thought Lesnar was going to lose easily but that the public would bet Hunt, the line wouldn't have opened at +170, hence the line being near pick em an hour before the fight. I'm starting to think the smart betting play is to pass on this fight. There is plenty of value on the undercard.
    Props for the 5-round fight haven't come out yet but it's probably worth hitting Macdonald for sub at openers. I agree that public money will probably come on Macdonald so maybe wait and see if Lineker ML/dec odds improve and pass if they don't

  13. #13
    BIGDAY
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    Quote Originally Posted by velcorr View Post
    This is true. He's had two and a half years to improve since that Faber loss, and he's only 25. I just wish he had one credible win. Kanehara certainly doesn't count. Then again, Linkner hasn't exactly built up an exceptional resume either. McDonald by sub or by dec seems like the play but watching all of their fights has made me second guess this style match-up.

    He owned Miguel Torres in his prime.

  14. #14
    Altern8
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    Thanks for the input. After watching a few Youtube fights of TF and Vannata seems like TF will get it done in the 1st. I had the same parlay as you on Saturday with Aldo/Caine/Lesnar and i don't think I've ever felt so confident about a bet i also had a Lesnar single to win. Looking ahead have you seen CM Punks odds? That's seems to have my alert as does McGregors odds. Sorry to go off fight card topic.

  15. #15
    mcfugly
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  16. #16
    velcorr
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    Miguel Torres was the most overrated fighter in MMA history and if he had a prime, McDonald was in junior high during it.
    Quote Originally Posted by BIGDAY View Post
    He owned Miguel Torres in his prime.
    Last edited by velcorr; 07-11-16 at 07:06 PM.

  17. #17
    velcorr
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    TF u1.5 rounds is my lean right now. If Vannata shocks the world, he shocks the world. Most of my money will be on the undercard but I'll prob put 0.25 or 0.5 on TF u1.5 but I'm waiting for the weigh-ins, as I always do.

    I can't wait to put another 4 units on Diaz. Diaz will beat CM again, and CM will either retire and do movies or go on hiatus and come back to FW. Diaz is the worst possible matchup for McGreggor. His chin is one of the best in MMA, his MMA boxing and real boxing is one of the best in MMA, he's bigger, if the fight goes to the ground, we all know what'll happen. McGreggor's cardio has never been tested, unlike cardiophile Diaz. I can just pray that people put their money on McGreggor again so I can make a fortune on the fight like I did last time. McGreggor/Aldo 2, if it happens, will be an interesting bet.

    CM Punk.... Unless he's +2000, I can't see how anyone would play him. He's pushing 40 and I hang out with people who have better BJJ than him. Props to him for "testing himself", but 18 months, training with a stellar camp, can't make up for the fact that he's never fought, is almost 40, and 40 in pro-wrestling years, so he's 50. Again, hopefully WWE marks push the line so it's red panty day fading CM Punk.

    I can't wait for UFC 202. Diaz is a lock and Maia vs Condit is going to be a classic battle of styles.
    Quote Originally Posted by Altern8 View Post
    Thanks for the input. After watching a few Youtube fights of TF and Vannata seems like TF will get it done in the 1st. I had the same parlay as you on Saturday with Aldo/Caine/Lesnar and i don't think I've ever felt so confident about a bet i also had a Lesnar single to win. Looking ahead have you seen CM Punks odds? That's seems to have my alert as does McGregors odds. Sorry to go off fight card topic.

  18. #18
    blackHIPPY
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    Freewave freewave freestyle freestyle

  19. #19
    velcorr
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    Not an official pick

    People worried about line changes (which are way less dynamic for these UFC Fight Night's), here is a parlay that should window. I'm not playing it but I might after I see the weigh-ins.

    Oliynyk, Alvey and Holtzman, 1 unit for 1.6 units

    If that doesn't cash, I'll be shocked and the more I think about it, the more I think I'll play this once I see the weigh-ins.

  20. #20
    velcorr
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    I'd say Torres was in his prime in 2005, not in 2012 when McDonald starched him in 3 minutes when Torres was on a 3-3 run, his 3 losses coming to DJ, Benavidez and Bowles, all by finish. I don't think Torres went into UFC 145 "in his prime" after those losses. I was on the Torres hype train too but he really never beat anyone when he was 37-1 and once he started fighting good fighters, we all know what happened.
    Quote Originally Posted by BIGDAY View Post
    He owned Miguel Torres in his prime.

  21. #21
    velcorr
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    Agreed. I love the Fight Night cards, there isn't too much action on them so the lines are usually safe until the props hit all the books and people can see the weigh-ins. Heritage has a 250 USD bet limit per fight on this card.
    Quote Originally Posted by Hugo de Naranja View Post
    Props for the 5-round fight haven't come out yet but it's probably worth hitting Macdonald for sub at openers. I agree that public money will probably come on Macdonald so maybe wait and see if Lineker ML/dec odds improve and pass if they don't

  22. #22
    Smoke
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    Velcro what do you think of the buyout?

    Will the ufc become more fixed and entertainment like wwe?

  23. #23
    kidcudi92
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    OP, is that you?

  24. #24
    jjgold
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    Vector were you a fighter?

  25. #25
    Ty$
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    If you don't think McDonald can't KO Lineker you guys are crazy.... McDonald is way faster and hits just as hard. McDonald will finish him sometime later in the fight by ko.
    Last edited by Ty$; 07-11-16 at 08:55 PM.

  26. #26
    The Giant
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    Is this guy better than Big Day?

    Big Day has long been my go-to guy when it comes to MMA.

    I'm typing this from a cardboard box, stealing Wi-Fi behind a Walmart.
    Points Awarded:

    BIGDAY gave The Giant 1 Betpoint(s) for this post.


  27. #27
    velcorr
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    I don't think the UFC is fixed now and this sale is to real investors with serious capitol and intentions on taking the UFC to the next level. The Fertitta's did a great job but WME-IMG can expand finally to China and India and will eventually go public. It will be funny to see the new, on a leash, Dana White. MMA is a sport, fight fixing is illegal. Look what happened to tennis, the ATP and WTA are worth exponentially more than the UFC. People who think sports are fixed should obviously not be betting on them or calling themsleves a capper.
    Quote Originally Posted by Smoke View Post
    Velcro what do you think of the buyout?

    Will the ufc become more fixed and entertainment like wwe?

  28. #28
    kidcudi92
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    Quote Originally Posted by Ty$ View Post
    If you don't think McDonald can't KO Lineker you guys are crazy.... McDonald's is way faster and hits just as hard McDonald will finish him sometime later in the fight by ko
    This is hard to read.

  29. #29
    velcorr
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    I'm new to this site, I don't know much about Big Day. Follow us both, I can't speak for anyone else but I'm up betting MMA since 2005. Information = money.
    Quote Originally Posted by The Giant View Post
    Is this guy better than Big Day?

    Big Day has long been my go-to guy when it comes to MMA.

    I'm typing this from a cardboard box, stealing Wi-Fi behind a Walmart.

  30. #30
    Ty$
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    Quote Originally Posted by kidcudi92 View Post
    This is hard to read.
    You get what I'm saying though right. Sorry I get crazy typing on my phone.

  31. #31
    velcorr
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    Super tough fight to read. Ty$, have you watched Lineker's last four fights? Where was McDonald's speed and power vs Kanehara, the fight he was getting schooled in till he pulled that win out of his arse.
    Quote Originally Posted by Ty$ View Post
    If you don't think McDonald can't KO Lineker you guys are crazy.... McDonald is way faster and hits just as hard. McDonald will finish him sometime later in the fight by ko.

  32. #32
    velcorr
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    I think he meant the fight.
    Quote Originally Posted by Ty$ View Post
    You get what I'm saying though right. Sorry I get crazy typing on my phone.

  33. #33
    kidcudi92
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    Quote Originally Posted by Ty$ View Post
    You get what I'm saying though right. Sorry I get crazy typing on my phone.

    haha I figured it was autocorrect, sorry I am the resident forum asshole

    Carry on men, I will show myself out

  34. #34
    Ty$
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    Quote Originally Posted by velcorr View Post
    Super tough fight to read. Ty$, have you watched Lineker's last four fights? Where was McDonald's speed and power vs Kanehara, the fight he was getting schooled in till he pulled that win out of his arse.
    Agree he didn't look great but that was off a long layoff also. When I think of Lineker all I think of is plod ahead and swing from the hip. I feel like he can be countered by a technical boxer like McDonald. I'm on McD straight so far.

  35. #35
    velcorr
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    I know fighters.
    Quote Originally Posted by jjgold View Post
    Vector were you a fighter?

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