UFC Fight Night: McDonald vs. Lineker
Official Picks.
I'm glad I spent an extra day watching fights, my thoughts on value in the card has changed.
Listed in order of confidence.
Oliynyk ITD (-122) 1.22 UNITS to win 1 UNITS
Parlay Holtzman, Alvey and Oliynyk @ +165 1 UNIT to win 1.65 UNITS (It's not my pick, but this can be made juicer by having Oliynk ITD but I'm sticking to a prop-free parlay juust in case Oliynyk can't find the finish)
Linekar ITD (+100) 1 UNIT to win 1 UNIT (I won't jump off a cliff if McDonald wins but the value is on Linekar and more value is on Linekar ITD. I'm predicting RD3 or RD4 KO but I'm not betting it for +0.20 more, just in case he uses strikes to find a sub. I am betting the finish however. Most people are betting McDonald and I'm really not sure why. He's a live dog but if you do the research, you'll see why he's +150. Linekar is NOT Kanehara, lay off or no lay off. Go watch the Kanehara fight and the miracle third round sub, then go watch Linekar vs. Rivera and Linekar vs. Font fights. Linekar, if he could have made weight at 125, would have or would be fighting DJ for the belt. He proved too big for the division, and is going back to 135. I've watched their fights for endlessly and Linekar is the better fighter. He's got KO power and 25mins to finish MM. McDonald's chin is good, but unless I've totally misread this, he's going down and this will be a career defining fight for the 26 year old Brazilian. Lots of people said I was wrong picking Lesnar and Aldo too.)
Fergersun by sub (+130) 1 UNIT to 1.3 UNITS (I almost passed on this, but after talking to a guy who knows a guy, I think TF by sub at plus money is the only way to extract value from this fight. If the Jackson/Winklejohn kid pulls off some insane upset, I'll just shake my head and say, anything can happen in MMA. Betting wise, this is the best bet, IMO)
Alvey ITD (-122) 1 UNIT to win 0.82 UNITS
TOTAL
5.22 UNITS wager to win 5.77
For the more agressive, put 2 UNITS on Oliynyk.
This is an extremely well handicapped card for a Fight Night event. I couldn't justify betting on any of the other fights, though Smolka came close. Katlyn Chookagian (+170) is a live dog but I'd rather get my money on Oliynyk.
Check with BigDay and other MMA guys, get on fight pass and watch fights. These are my picks, I'm not betting this card with extreme confidence. I was expecting different lines, the handicappers nailed this. That being said, I'm obviously high on Oliynyk and will sink or swim with him and Linekar.
BOL