[bjpenn85]

Adding:

2 units on Rick Story @ 2.25 to win - 2,5 units

[bjpenn85]

adding

3,75 units on Caraway/Sterling goes over 2,5 rounds @ 1.50 - 1,8 units

[bjpenn85]

1 unit on Bryan Caraway @ 4.25 to win - 3,25 unit


I see this fight as pretty close both standing and on the ground. Sterling does have a larger arsenal of strikes to his disposal. Front kick, and all sorts of crazy shit. If this fight somehow ends up becoming a real fight, with heavy grappling and war like, im i think this fight can get real close. Caraway is pretty savvy and experienced and did show a pretty effective boxing game in his last fight. He still doesnt really blend his strikes with his takedowns, and if he can be effective striking wise against Sterlings offence its a big question mark. He still should not be this big of an underdog IMO. Although i would not be surprised if Sterling has his way with him here as Sterlings ceiling is higher and should improve more from fight to fight.

[bjpenn85]

adding

3,75 units on Caraway/Sterling goes over 2,5 rounds @ 1.50 - 1,8 units

For sterling to win he needs to outbox or take Caraway down. Its not likely he can outgrapple Caraway but perhaps he can stand on the outside and find openings, shoot for takedowns and gather points. Caraway is very durable and hard nosed so its hard to see either fighter get a finish. I dont find it likely that Caraway locks up a sub as Sterling has good bjj, but, we havent so far seen how sterlings defensive guard game is as nobody has taken his back or even come close to threaten with any meaningful offence.

[bjpenn85]

Adding

4,2 units on Thomas Almeida @ 1.63 to win - 2.6 units.

[bjpenn85]

Adding:

Another 2 units on Rick Story @ 2.25 to win - 2,5 units

[bjpenn85]

Bying back here. After rewatching Storys fight with Nelson, im not that impressed with Story striking.

Im riding the first 2 units.

[CaptChaos145]

I agree with your Sterling/Caraway assessment. I think the line should be much closer. I can also see this fight going the distance.

[bjpenn85]

Bying back here. After rewatching Storys fight with Nelson, im not that impressed with Story striking.

Im riding the first 2 units.

Entirely out of Rick Story bet now.

[bjpenn85]

Adding

2 units on Chris Camozzi @ 3 to win - 4 units

Miranda is rightfully the favourite here. He has better striking and finishing power on the feet, and has decent takedown defence to keep this standing. But, he should not be this big of a favourite. Camozzi has ok striking, a bit to hittable on the feet, although he uses his reach for what its worth. Theres an experience gap here and also a submission/wrestling gap in favour of Camozzi and the fight is also probably going the distance. Vitor Miranda have not met very tough competition either so we dont know where his ceiling is, but its not likely in the contender range , but outside top 10-15. So if Camozzi can apply a strategy mixing in striking and wrestling and submission threats he has a shot. Miranda has already lost a fight where he was repeatedly taken down. Im not sure if Camozzi are able to this in the same manner off course, but he doesnt need to either to make this fight close.

Camozzi has actually beat some good guys and he rarely gets finished so this fight is going the full three rounds most likely. Camozzi is a real fighters fighter who wont quit. Therefor you see him surviving the likes of Lorenz Larkin.

[bjpenn85]

So far:

UFC FIGHT NIGHT 88

4,2 units on Thomas Almeida @ 1.63 to win - 2.6 units
3,75 units on Caraway/Sterling goes over 2,5 rounds @ 1.50 - 1,8 unit
2 units on Chris Camozzi @ 3 to win - 4 units
1 unit on Bryan Caraway @ 4.25 to win - 3,25 unit

[bjpenn85]

Adding

4,2 units on Thomas Almeida @ 1.63 to win - 2.6 units.

After more tape watching i will buy out of this one too. Its a dog or pass it situation. Almeida gets hit way to often to trust him. Garbrandt does have a more solid chin, i think he can take the punishment, while Almeida usually recovers i cant trust him to every fight.

[JIBBBY]

Good luck with Camozzi BJPenn, tough call going with that can though IMO. He's slow and methodical, not very athletic.. He's been beating bums lately like Joe Riggs.. He is tough as nails, granite chin and can bang standing which does give him a chance in this fight..

Miranda is a KO artist of sorts with 4 of his last 5 fights coming by way of KO. Camozzi can take a man like beating and keep on ticking so he should survive Miranda.. This fight should go the distance like you mentioned BJ but I have Miranda probably winning it if I had to guess..

Could be wrong though BJ as Camozzi is a reasonably decent boxer... We'll see?

[bjpenn85]

Good luck with Camozzi BJPenn, tough call going with that can though IMO. He's slow and methodical, not very athletic.. He's been beating bums lately like Joe Riggs.. He is tough as nails, granite chin and can bang standing which does give him a chance in this fight..

Miranda is a KO artist of sorts with 4 of his last 5 fights coming by way of KO. Camozzi can take a man like beating and keep on ticking so he should survive Miranda.. This fight should go the distance like you mentioned BJ but I have Miranda probably winning it if I had to guess..

Could be wrong though BJ as Camozzi is a reasonably decent boxer... We'll see?

if i start to feel bad about it, i might change to Miranda dec @ +170ish, which may also be a decent bet. Or maybe just the fight goes the distance. The common mistake people make fighting Miranda is taking him down from the fence, from there on, its hard elbows to the temporal area, both Hester and guimares had maybe survived 3 rounds if they didnt use 100% of their cardio at the fence only to get brutally beaten up and gassed out. Obviously a sniper as Miranda will capitalize when he smells blood.

To highlight some of Mirandas flaws: Maldonado has a great chin, but not any bragging rights when it comes to defence, he has beaten Miranda twice, which says something of what happens if you have the chin and audacity to stand with him for three rounds. Now, this happended in 2007 and 2009, but the style may favoure Camozzi. Miranda goes 3 times to decisions during his career and looses all three. So you can breake his spirit. Out cardio him, or grapple him. Hopefully Camozzi choses a fine mix of thoose two.

[JIBBBY]

^ I also think there is a slight reach and height favoring Camozzi if I'm not mistaken? That could be a plus to consider if the fight stays standing and becomes a striking point contest which I think it will...

[bjpenn85]

^ I also think there is a slight reach and height favoring Camozzi if I'm not mistaken? That could be a plus to consider if the fight stays standing and becomes a striking point contest which I think it will...

If Camozzi pushes forward, you can make Miranda hesitant to strike. I was on Miranda against Guimares, and i def did not like what i saw in periods. Miranda was breathing a bit heavy at times and he also appeared gunshy when guimares pushed him backwards. If you give miranda time and space he will easily outstrike you. But if you push him backwards just like you would with barboza he stops striking. He cant get off. Which makes perfect sense as fighting backwards sucks. Both Hester and guimares didnt get handily out struck, they choose to gass themselves out after attempting takedowns, then more or less out of nowhere they gave up when getting hit. Camozzi wont do that. Camozzi can use his length to push Miranda backwards, hopefully he at times landing some shots, make Miranda tired and gunshy, and succeeding hitting takedowns for brief moments. Its hard to hold Miranda down for longer periods of time.

However, standing Camozzi doesnt check leg kicks very well, so camozzi can easily loose badly by believing hes "better everywhere", which he said in an interview. While he is right that he is overall maybe better, he def i is not the better striker or the better athlete. I hope he deliberately lies.

[bjpenn85]

​So far:

UFC FIGHT NIGHT 88

3,75 units on Caraway/Sterling goes over 2,5 rounds @ 1.50 - 1,8 unit
2 units on Chris Camozzi @ 3 to win - 4 units
1 unit on Bryan Caraway @ 4.25 to win - 3,25 unit
0.5 units on Josh Burkman @ 3.5 to win - 1,2 units

[Hugo de Naranja]

​So far:

UFC FIGHT NIGHT 88

3,75 units on Caraway/Sterling goes over 2,5 rounds @ 1.50 - 1,8 unit
2 units on Chris Camozzi @ 3 to win - 4 units
1 unit on Bryan Caraway @ 4.25 to win - 3,25 unit
0.5 units on Josh Burkman @ 3.5 to win - 1,2 units

I like the small bet on Burkman. Felder is highly overrated, losing to Barboza and Pearson and then coming from behind to beat Daron Cruickshank (who has since been cut from the UFC) in the third

[JIBBBY]

If Camozzi pushes forward, you can make Miranda hesitant to strike. I was on Miranda against Guimares, and i def did not like what i saw in periods. Miranda was breathing a bit heavy at times and he also appeared gunshy when guimares pushed him backwards. If you give miranda time and space he will easily outstrike you. But if you push him backwards just like you would with barboza he stops striking. He cant get off. Which makes perfect sense as fighting backwards sucks. Both Hester and guimares didnt get handily out struck, they choose to gass themselves out after attempting takedowns, then more or less out of nowhere they gave up when getting hit. Camozzi wont do that. Camozzi can use his length to push Miranda backwards, hopefully he at times landing some shots, make Miranda tired and gunshy, and succeeding hitting takedowns for brief moments. Its hard to hold Miranda down for longer periods of time.

However, standing Camozzi doesnt check leg kicks very well, so camozzi can easily loose badly by believing hes "better everywhere", which he said in an interview. While he is right that he is overall maybe better, he def i is not the better striker or the better athlete. I hope he deliberately lies.

Is Camozzi a pressure fighter? Not so sure about that.. He is at a speed and kicking disadvantage for sure in this fight.. Both of these guys really don't impress me.. Camozzi is tough as nails though as I said before, hard to KO.. I think I'll be on over round bets myself in this one..

[bjpenn85]

Is Camozzi a pressure fighter? Not so sure about that.. He is at a speed and kicking disadvantage for sure in this fight.. Both of these guys really don't impress me.. Camozzi is tough as nails though as I said before, hard to KO.. I think I'll be on over round bets myself in this one..

Sounds reasonable. Despite the fact that camozzi cant check leg kicks, is hittable, and isnt 100% a pressure fighter, he is still aggressive enough to the point i believe whith his toughness, reach and frame and submission advantage may give Miranda trouble. Its something with Mirandas mentality im questioning. Im also willing to give camozzi a shot because of his price tag, obviously so its not like im favoure Camozzi to win. If he can make 2.round close and win 3.round the judges may give him a split, thats what aiming for. Its hard for anyone to win a decision in MMA if youre not dominating for three rounds.

[sando]

Thanks lads, solid analysis. I've been looking for some other opinions on the Camozzi fight...

[bjpenn85]

Adding thought:

If in + i will use some of the house money on Almeida which should win unless getting KOed in round 1. or round 2.

[PaperTrail07]

Back in action.....long vaca----lets GO....!

[bjpenn85]

UFC FIGHT NIGHT 88
3,75 units on Caraway/Sterling goes over 2,5 rounds @ 1.50 - 1,8 unit
2 units on Chris Camozzi @ 3 to win - 4 units
1 unit on Bryan Caraway @ 4.25 to win - 3,25 unit
0.5 units on Josh Burkman @ 3.5 to win - 1,2 units

Result: +7,85 units / 785 dollar
Results since may 2016: +20.25 units

Miri said something about me never go for dogs yet two dogs in Caraway (+325) and Camozzi (+200) hits. Ill guess Bjpenn85 knows his shitt after all...