[lokihayze]

I'm looking at a couple of parlays. Bit of an MMA enthusiast and had pretty good luck picking winners before I started laying out cash, as well as after I'm by no means an expert, but very interested in chatting with like minded people who love MMA betting as much as I do
Thinking the main ones which will win are
Hunt
Hooker
Case
Meigny
Would like opinions on a couple I've been toying with.
Bosse because there is SO little available on him right now. He could have been hiding away training hard to come back, seeing as he was jumping at retirement after his last knock out blow. Can't see him coming back to MMA if he didn't think he had a marked improvement in his game, he'd probably make more off going back and playing hockey which he was BOSS at, rather than being in the UFC. Better to be a legend in one sport than a card filler in another...so my theory goes.
The odds on him are over $3 on the win and added to a parlay, add up nicely. Seems like the kind of guy (from the videos and interviews I could pull on him) who wouldn't want to go out and embarrass himself for the sake of it.
Thoughts?
Another I'm toying with is Dan Kelly. Now the guy he's up against is a heavy favourite- antonios carlos junior. He gets most of his wins via submission WHICH I don't see being as easy for him against a judoka of Kelly's caliber.
He seems to get into a lot of clinches early on which as we know from rondas fights, is a bad bloody idea against a judoka. If Kelly can get him down its game over for Antonio. The way Antonio plays ball, looks like he's going to play into Kelly's strong suit, get cocky because he's younger and will think he can out clinch him. It's very likely he will think that just as ronda thought she could out box holly despite the whole world advising her not to do so. Fighters who are favourites are sometimes cocky and tend to overexaggerate their own strengths and underestimate their opponents. Underdogs don't have that luxury.
At over $5 odds it's a good strong possibility that happens (or at least 50/50) in which case I thought that's a good bet.
Thoughts?
Last one is Brendan oreilly. Now there's not stacks and stacks of footage available of him BUT he teaches MMA and runs seminars a lot. His background is BJJ and WRESTLING of all things as that's not too widespread in Australia. He won nationals or something in wrestling, forgive the memory here but he's pretty top notch. Anyway, He's training with Kyle Nokes and dan Kelly for this camp.
That means he's going to have some good extra stuff from Kyle AND dan as well as dan will have some stuff to add to his tool belt from Brendan.
Any thoughts on those picks? All opinions welcome, love to hear any and all viewpoints had a read though the forum and love the set up and excited to have found some people FINALLY who are into this as much as me!
Loki

[mirinquads]

Nah, your picks suck. Only sound reasoning is that Bosse has BOSS in his name, thus probably wins.

Just tail Vaughnay from this forum, he's a known tout and has not lost a bet in like half a year.

[Sanity Check]

Last I heard Steve Bosse broke his hand 12 times. He had some injuries and surgeries and was on the verge of retiring before he made his UFC debut.

The best thing Daniel Kelly has going for him is his olympic level judo. If he gets the clinch he can throw people, if he holds them down he can win. That's how he won his last fight with Steve Montgomery. Antonio Carlos Jr is a world champion in brazilian jiu jitsu. Its a classic judo versus BJJ fight. I think Antonio Carlos is probably better standing and all around than Kelly is. Antonio Carlos' earlier UFC fights were at heavyweight and light heavyweight. He's dropped down to middleweight which seems to be his natural weight class. Carlos' loss to Patrick Cummins was above his natural weight class.

Brendan O'Reilly has a good amateur wrestling background but has looked inexperienced and green with his 7 pro fights going up against a veteran in Alan Jouban with 16 pro fights. Jouban training out of 10th planet jiu jitsu with Eddie Bravo and Blackhouse, I'd have to think his game is very tight.

MMA being relatively new in australia, they don't have the same level trainers as in the united states. It doesn't guarantee all aussies will lose but it does mean that they'll be at a disadvantage.

UFC cards outside the continental united states have a higher % percentage of favorites winning and are easier to predict(for me anywayz).

[JoshKnows46]

Last I heard Steve Bosse broke his hand 12 times. He had some injuries and surgeries and was on the verge of retiring before he made his UFC debut.

The best thing Daniel Kelly has going for him is his olympic level judo. If he gets the clinch he can throw people, if he holds them down he can win. That's how he won his last fight with Steve Montgomery. Antonio Carlos Jr is a world champion in brazilian jiu jitsu. Its a classic judo versus BJJ fight. I think Antonio Carlos is probably better standing and all around than Kelly is. Antonio Carlos' earlier UFC fights were at heavyweight and light heavyweight. He's dropped down to middleweight which seems to be his natural weight class. Carlos' loss to Patrick Cummins was above his natural weight class.

Brendan O'Reilly has a good amateur wrestling background but has looked inexperienced and green with his 7 pro fights going up against a veteran in Alan Jouban with 16 pro fights. Jouban training out of 10th planet jiu jitsu with Eddie Bravo and Blackhouse, I'd have to think his game is very tight.

MMA being relatively new in australia, they don't have the same level trainers as in the united states. It doesn't guarantee all aussies will lose but it does mean that they'll be at a disadvantage.

UFC cards outside the continental united states have a higher % percentage of favorites winning and are easier to predict(for me anywayz).

Yup, Australians suck, hopefully I don't get robbed too much by their judges, I'll take 1 robbery as long as it's not magny lombard. Their judges are just as bad as their fighters.

[Sanity Check]

Yup, Australians suck, hopefully I don't get robbed too much by their judges, I'll take 1 robbery as long as it's not magny lombard. Their judges are just as bad as their fighters.

Aye, almost forgot.

-Mark Hunt trained in thailand at tiger muay thai for his last fight.
-Bec Rawlings is training at alliance mma, same gym as Dominick Cruz.

Not sure how much of a difference that'll make, those are the only australians I know of who moved camps.

[lokihayze]

So Bec Rawlings may be a good choice too? She's also trained with the Diaz brothers.

[lokihayze]

That ham girl bec is against has kickboxing and lots of experience but she's not a knockout artist and bec seems like she goes forward and is a real scrapper. Thinking she may take this fight. Thoughts?

[lokihayze]

Steve bosse is at tri star gym and Te huna is in Sydney so Steve may well have a tighter game at this point given his time off he's had to train. Thoughts?

[mirinquads]

Yes. He's a boss. Te Huna is old.

[JoshKnows46]

Steve bosse is at tri star gym and Te huna is in Sydney so Steve may well have a tighter game at this point given his time off he's had to train. Thoughts?

te huna is huge in comparison, and will have no problem taking bosse down and pounding him out...bosse has more of a chance then kelly and orielly, but he'll lose if te huna fights smart.

[mirinquads]

Tehuna sub +787.

[JIBBBY]

Tehuna sub +787.

Are you gonna pull another sub prop out of your ass Miri with this??.. Tehuna could rock this punk, take his back and sink in the RN.. Tejuna does have a few subs on his record.. He gets the submission wins about 15% of the time so it's not unthinkable.... Against this bum he probably gets the KO though..

[mirinquads]

Tehuna is fighting for his job. If he has any sort of brains, he takes him down and takes the easy sub, Bosse has no ground game what so ever. Ofcourse if they trade hands, It could end badly for either.

[plekz]

Tehuna is fighting for his job. If he has any sort of brains

Have Tehuna showed he has any brains in any fight thus far though? Fight IQ is hardly something you all of a sudden 'grow' as a fighter. I would agree though that there's value in the line, not so much because of Tehuna's ''fight iq'' but more so because Bosse has no ground game what so ever

[mirinquads]

Have Tehuna showed he has any brains in any fight thus far though? Fight IQ is hardly something you all of a sudden 'grow' as a fighter. I would agree though that there's value in the line, not so much because of Tehuna's ''fight iq'' but more so because Bosse has no ground game what so ever

He has. Took Jimmo down after he got headkicked by him, and grinded him out instead. He's obviously a mental midget though, as seen in his '09 fight with Perosh where he punched and stomped on his head after the ref stoppage.
That said, there's no way even an amatuer camp misses that Bosse's absolute only path to victory is an early knockout, and you're on a 3 fight skid. Even so if he wrestles though, he could easily pound Bosse out from his non existent guard, or just elbows his brains out from side control or something.

Liked the value either way.