[JoshKnows46]

Yeah, I'll probably pass on the over, but man, I can still remember that second JDS fight with Cain! Ugh, I just have t remind myself that he's looked like shit ever since and that fight was in 2011. Holy crap man, 2011!!! Five years ago? Fuuuck. Time.

I hate to do the ol MMA math.. Anyways, I totally forgot that JDS lost to 'Reem via TKO in his last fight, and that was his only fight in 2015.

Ben Rothwell beat 'Reem in 2014. He also fought one per year since 2014, but has subbed Mitrione AND Barnett. Last time Rothwell saw a round three was in 2013 when he TKOd Vera.

All in on Rothwell is what I'm probably gonna do.

$100 on Rothwell to win $98

Good luck with the all in, we got this, value wise, this will prove to be the best bet on the card, linesmakers still haven't caught up.

[Mxs1332]

I seen a picture of souza recently, he has a beer gut and bitch , Belfort gonna ko him in the 1st. I hadn't expected him as a juicer.

Should be an interesting match. Belfort will likely get the nod if the card goes to the judges. But I can't get over "Dad bod" Vitor. It depresses the hell out of me.

If juiced to the Yoel Romero couldn't KO Souza well then fk..

[JoshKnows46]

Should be an interesting match. Belfort will likely get the nod if the card goes to the judges. But I can't get over "Dad bod" Vitor. It depresses the hell out of me.

If juiced to the Yoel Romero couldn't KO Souza well then fk..

Probable souza by sub in the 1st or Vitor by ko in the 1st. Based on this looking like souza first fight off the juice, I'm leaning Vitor at plus money, maybe hedge with souza sub.

[mirinquads]

You hadn't expected Souza as a juicer?! That dude was as obvious as Vitor.

Got a unit on Vitor rd 1 +650 and 4 units on fight ITD.

[JoshKnows46]

You hadn't expected Souza as a juicer?! That dude was as obvious as Vitor.

Got a unit on Vitor rd 1 +650 and 4 units on fight ITD.

Solid plays, great number u got on that 1st round prop, his body didn't seem like a juicers body to me, thought he was just naturally gifted, but it should be obvious for 99 percent of the brazilians.

[Wohlford]

Josh, what do you think of the line movement on Rothwell/JDS?

Pinnacle is now at +116/-131 (in favor of JDS). Surprisingly large move. Maybe I will get Rothwell at +110 or better at 5Dimes sooner than I expected

[Ty$]

Probable souza by sub in the 1st or Vitor by ko in the 1st. Based on this looking like souza first fight off the juice, I'm leaning Vitor at plus money, maybe hedge with souza sub.

I love Vitor on this bet ...

[Shagdogy]

Josh, what do you think of the line movement on Rothwell/JDS?

Pinnacle is now at +116/-131 (in favor of JDS). Surprisingly large move. Maybe I will get Rothwell at +110 or better at 5Dimes sooner than I expected

I can't answer for Josh, but I don't get it at all. JDS can only win by out pointing him with boxing or somehow getting the KO which I think is unlikely. Assuming Rothwell can take JDS's best, then it's only a matter of time before he puts those heavy hands on his aging chin, or cracks him and sinks in his newly perfected Gogo choke and pops his head right off his shoulders. Rothwell ITD is my thought. But there does seem to be some momentum to the JDS line. I thought it opened up too friendly to him in the first place and now with the movement he's even more favored? I don't get it.

[Ty$]

I can't answer for Josh, but I don't get it at all. JDS can only win by out pointing him with boxing or somehow getting the KO which I think is unlikely. Assuming Rothwell can take JDS's best, then it's only a matter of time before he puts those heavy hands on his aging chin, or cracks him and sinks in his newly perfected Gogo choke and pops his head right off his shoulders. Rothwell ITD is my thought. But there does seem to be some momentum to the JDS line. I thought it opened up too friendly to him in the first place and now with the movement he's even more favored? I don't get it.

It's cuz people know JDS sounds dumb but it's true. People look at Rothwell as a joke which is crazy. Easy $ for us !!

[harorldisgenuis]

JDS won every single on of his fights between May 2008 to May 2012. That was when JDS was on his monster run. AND IT WAS AWESOME! I mean the guy beat a at-his-prime-Shane Carwin. KOd friggin' Cain on the first Fox card. Is it too soon to say he's in the slump of his career? SInce 2012 JDS fought five times, lost three of those fights (2 to Cain and most recently TKOd by 'Reem). Hi did decision Stipe in 2014. But that was in 2014. He doesn't have that same pop he did back when he was the king. That twinkle in his eye is gone.

I just rewatched the Rothweel v 'Reem fight from 2014. Damn! Rothwell did get finished by Gonzaga, but Gonzaga fought all grabby grabby, drag you to the ground, which JDS is 100% NOT going to do.

How can you not pick Rothwell in this one? After watching both of their last four fight, what is it that would lead anyone to believe JDS will win this weekend?

[harorldisgenuis]

That said.. line on Rothwell moved to +116. Anyone think the line will move more favorably for us Rothwell folk? Trying to decide when to jump on it

[harorldisgenuis]

Rothwell lost to Hunt in 2011 via decision, both of these guys were different fighters five years ago. Ben wasn't nearly on the level he's at now. His next loss was Gonzaga in 2013 by way of a smothering ground game. On fire since. Sorry, just thinking it through and avoid doing any MMA math.

That Stipe v JDS fight was a bit of a snooze fest?

[JoshKnows46]

Josh, what do you think of the line movement on Rothwell/JDS?

Pinnacle is now at +116/-131 (in favor of JDS). Surprisingly large move. Maybe I will get Rothwell at +110 or better at 5Dimes sooner than I expected

Line movement doesn't mean much in this sport, it's small market. Just means a few more idiots bet jds, still see jds as the same guy before drug testing and before his beatings he got from cain. People love betting against rothwell, just like they love betting against hunt, as the mir line dropped. Line movement never means much to me, but it means better value for those that haven't bet rothwell yet, it's a good thing. Nfl and other major sports markets, you can pay extra attention to line movement, but it doesn't take much to move a mma line.

[harorldisgenuis]

I really think Rothwell can do this. How many units do you guys have on Ben? I'm thinking of 2 or 3.. not sure if I want to go as high as 5 units on Big Ben.

[JoshKnows46]

I really think Rothwell can do this. How many units do you guys have on Ben? I'm thinking of 2 or 3.. not sure if I want to go as high as 5 units on Big Ben.

I'm on him for 9 units..if your unit is 10 dollars, I'd bet it like this.
$35 on rothwell straight
$10 on rothwell inside the distance
$30 on rothwell scorecards equal no action prob
$5 on rothwell sub prop
$5 on rothwell finish in the second round
$5 on rothwell finish in the third round

[harorldisgenuis]

I'm on him for 9 units..if your unit is 10 dollars, I'd bet it like this.
$35 on rothwell straight
$10 on rothwell inside the distance
$30 on rothwell scorecards equal no action prob
$5 on rothwell sub prop
$5 on rothwell finish in the second round
$5 on rothwell finish in the third round

Wow. You're REALLY feeling Big Ben. Nitrogen only has a 1.5 over/under and ML on the Big Ben fight. I'll probably skip the over/under and just put a couple of units on Rothwell.

[JoshKnows46]

Wow. You're REALLY feeling Big Ben. Nitrogen only has a 1.5 over/under and ML on the Big Ben fight. I'll probably skip the over/under and just put a couple of units on Rothwell.

When you add money to your bankroll, put half of it in 5dimes, so you can bet the probs, they have some solid prob bets to be made on the April 16th card.and yes, I'm extremely confident in rothwell finishing jds in this matchup, I'll only have 2 to 4 solid bets on this card, the rest of the card isn't worth betting, ways to lose on both sides of many fights on this card, plus heavyweights come with extra risk. No risk in rothwell, he,ll walk through anything JDS has.

[harorldisgenuis]

When you add money to your bankroll, put half of it in 5dimes, so you can bet the probs, they have some solid prob bets to be made on the April 16th card.and yes, I'm extremely confident in rothwell finishing jds in this matchup, I'll only have 2 to 4 solid bets on this card, the rest of the card isn't worth betting, ways to lose on both sides of many fights on this card, plus heavyweights come with extra risk. No risk in rothwell, he,ll walk through anything JDS has.

Damn... 5Dimes has a much broader range of options for MMA bets. Hm, I might just totally switch over to 5Dimes..

Josh- did you accept any of their 'new player rewards' when you signed up on 5Dimes? Not sure I want to get myself involved with anything above and beyond the 1x rollover on deposits before payout.

[UncleChael]

Your commas are going to get ****** up when JDS drops him and finishes him in the first round.

[harorldisgenuis]

Your commas are going to get ****** up when JDS drops him and finishes him in the first round.

I'm curious.. What is it about JDS that makes you so confident he will finish Big Ben?

[UncleChael]

I'm curious.. What is it about JDS that makes you so confident he will finish Big Ben?

because he will.

[JoshKnows46]

Your commas are going to get ****** up when JDS drops him and finishes him in the first round.

Lol. Not a chance bub.

[LBfightlife]

because he will.

He's hugging the Brazilian nuts of JDS. Rothwell has been on a tear. JDS been on a streak of bearing torn. To be honest I thought he lost the fight w Stiepe, but I only watched it once.

For a "pro boxer" JDS carries is hands very low.. he does telegraph his punches as well. I'm hesitant to invest heavy in big Ben. No doubt JDS has a chance, I'd cap big Ben at like -200 maybe -250 to -275.

What makes me cautious about Rothwell is his camp.. who is he training with in Bumfukk wisconsion? Manitowoc county sherif department ? He should he moonlighting with Duke Rufus or some other camp that can push him.


All joking aside I'm real curious who he is training under and who he is training with as far as sparring partners, etc.. I feel that's his biggest weakness.

That said, there's no denying he has a ground game after the sub on Warmaster.. he seems very confident and calm inude the cage as well.

[harorldisgenuis]

What makes me cautious about Rothwell is his camp.. who is he training with in Bumfukk wisconsion? Manitowoc county sherif department ? He should he moonlighting with Duke Rufus or some other camp that can push him.

Rothwell trains at his own school in Wisconsin with BJJ Professor Luiz Claudio. His sparring and training partners are local, no big names or anyone you could do any research on.

[Mxs1332]

Rothwell trains at his own school in Wisconsin with BJJ Professor Luiz Claudio. His sparring and training partners are local, no big names or anyone you could do any research on.

True but on this specific case we just have to go by results. He finishes big name opponents by TKO and mixes in submissions within his repertoire. Serious double threat. I'm damn excited to see this !

[harorldisgenuis]

True but on this specific case we just have to go by results. He finishes big name opponents by TKO and mixes in submissions within his repertoire. Serious double threat. I'm damn excited to see this !

I rewatched Rothwell's fights from 2011 to present. I tried watching a bunch of JDS fights but I got bored. Couldn't even watch through all of the Stipe fight.

Frankly, if you actually think JDS will win from just comparing Junior's last four fights with Ben's last four fights, then I have no idea what variables are in play in your decision making. Probably why those folks reply with one liners...

[Mxs1332]

Sam. I rewatched Rothwell's fights from 2011 to present. I tried watching a bunch of JDS fights but I got bored. Couldn't even watch through all of the Stipe fight.

You said it best, I can't seem to figure out who's backing JDS with all those bets. Clearly haven't been watching the tape. I think Santos' only chance is to pray that he connects on a hailmary TKO.

Even then it might not be enough to succumb Rothwell's iron chin. Dude can eat shots and put you away. *Cough, Brendan Schaub*

[JoshKnows46]

Lines dropped on 5 dimes, maxed these out so far...
Christine Stancui +180 $250
Francis Zavier Ngannou +100 $250
Parlay
Mairbek Taisumov -280
Jon jones -500
Mighty mouse -400
$700 to win $725

[JoshKnows46]

Maxed these out again...
Christine Stancui +155 $250
Francis Zavier Ngannou -120 $300

[JoshKnows46]

added:
Christine Stancui +160 $100 (finish here, 2 unit play)
Francis Zavier Ngannou -125 $312.5 (will add more here)

[JoshKnows46]

added:
Francis Zavier Ngannou -130 $325 (finish here, 4 unit play)

[JoshKnows46]

Added:
Parlay
Mairbek Taisumov -290
NOT Dos Santos Inside the distance -176
$500 to win $554.47

Mairbek Taisumov -310 $310 to win $100

[JoshKnows46]

9 units invested in Rothwell, 5.3 Units on Taisumov, 4 Units on Ngannou, and 2 units on Stancui.. i'll have a few marginal unit prop plays when they get released....For those that love betting every fight, i'd advise to take it easy with this card, beside the 4 guys and gal i bet here, the rest of the card is coin flip hell, some unpredictable shit, save some money for the next few cards coming up, we gonna make a killin.... the live betting action should be fantastic, btw this card starts early morning around 8:30 or 9:30.

My Full Card:
Ben Rothwell -110 Risking $1100
Ben Rothwell itd +132 Risking $250
Ben Rothwell by sub +500 Risking $100
Rothwell scorecards = no action -120 $600
Rothwell scorecards =no action -131 $350
Rothwell wins in round 2 +525 $100
Rothwell wins in round 3 +875 $100

Christine Stancui +180 $250
Christine Stancui +155 $250
Christine Stancui +160 $100

Francis Zavier Ngannou +100 $250
Francis Zavier Ngannou -120 $300
Francis Zavier Ngannou -125 $312.5
Francis Zavier Ngannou -130 $325

Parlay
Mairbek Taisumov -280
Jon jones -500
Mighty mouse -400
$700 to win $725

Mairbek Taisumov -310 $310 to win $100

Parlay
Mairbek Taisumov -290
NOT Dos Santos Inside the distance -176
$500 to win $554.47

[harorldisgenuis]

Yeah, this card is pretty funky. I'm doing a goofy half unit parlay of a few fights, but waiting for the line on Mairbeck to open up on Nitrogen. Probably won't lock in my parlay until Friday. I've already got 4 units on Big Ben.

Not sure about Stancui yet...that fight seems like it could be a real toss-up too...

[Dmon3y]

Why Ngannou? Hes a good puncher and a massive beast but everything else is poo. Blaydes is a NJCAA National HW Champ and hes been working with King's MMA and other AAA camps. He is very serious and seems smart. I dont know how Ngannou can stop him from doing what he wants to unless he gets the KO. In Ngannous last fight if i remember correctly he was taken down by a much smaller lesser wrestler then Blaydes and couldnt get up. If Luis had the tank and size Blaydes has he couldhv won that fight. I was going to lay a stomper on the NJCAA HW Champ but now u have me trippin. I dont see ur bets clashing with mine too often so I thought I'd ask what u think.

I also wanted to say I think Pejic is the best value on the card. Check it.