[THE_LOCKSMITH]

Pay-per-view, 10 p.m. ET
Conor McGregor vs. Nate Diaz
Holly Holm vs. Miesha Tate (for women's bantamweight title)
Ilir Latifi vs. Gian Villante
Corey Anderson vs. Tom Lawlor
Amanda Nunes vs. Valentina Shevchenko

FOX Sports 1, 8 p.m. ET
Siyar Bahadurzada vs. Brandon Thatch
Erick Silva vs. Nordine Taleb
Marcelo Guimaraes vs. Vitor Miranda
Darren Elkins vs. Chas Skelly

UFC Fight Pass, 6:30 p.m. ET
Jim Miller vs. Diego Sanchez
Jason Saggo vs. Justin Salas
Julian Erosa vs. Teruto Ishihara

[JIBBBY]

McGregor -400 lol... Prop play for this guy..

[shabang]

all over mcgregor here , no way he loses this fight- this is as close to free money as we're gonna get so pound the penetrate out of it.. also on holm and fight starts round 2

[JoshKnows46]

Hit Latifi -150 and nunes +100 to win 250 each

[TPowell]

Damn, hit Nunes at -140 which I still like but latifi is up to -240 now

[agendaman]

with all due respect to all you fine cappers after the silva loss I have to say nobody really knows a dam thing period

[JC2008]

with all due respect to all you fine cappers after the silva loss I have to say nobody really knows a dam thing period

What about the people who bet on Bisping? There are alot of people here who are very knowledgeable. That being said, if everyone had all the winners all the time we wouldn't be discussing, we'd be cashing tickets non-stop.

[Suggartown]

What about the people who bet on Bisping? There are alot of people here who are very knowledgeable. That being said, if everyone had all the winners all the time we wouldn't be discussing, we'd be cashing tickets non-stop.

Amen to this.

[TPowell]

with all due respect to all you fine cappers after the silva loss I have to say nobody really knows a dam thing period

LOL, so one miss on a -200 guy and people don't know anything?

[JC2008]

LOL, so one miss on a -200 guy and people don't know anything?

I know... it's almost as if he was forced to bet on the 2-to-1 favorite.

[JoshKnows46]

Maxed out Latifi -210 again 1 second ago for $1050, and another $350 on nunes.

[JIBBBY]

Maxed out Latifi -210 again 1 second ago for $1050, and another $350 on nunes.

The first thing that jumps out to me for Amanda Nunes is she typically does not go the distance in her fights.

Nunes by KO or ITD maybe? What do you think? http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Amanda-Nunes-31496

Props aren't out yet so no telling how to gauge the odds just yet for prop play..

[JoshKnows46]

The first thing that jumps out to me for Amanda Nunes is she typically does not go the distance in her fights.

Nunes by KO or ITD maybe? What do you think? http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Amanda-Nunes-31496

Props aren't out yet so no telling how to gauge the odds just yet for prop play..

Nunes ko is the most likely outcome, but I'll only be on her straight.

[TPowell]

Erick Silva anyone? Taleb is a bum

[Thor4140]

all over mcgregor here , no way he loses this fight- this is as close to free money as we're gonna get so pound the penetrate out of it.. also on holm and fight starts round 2

i was on Jones over Sonnen and OSP over another roided loser Brazilian and all thou it was free money i came very close to losing a ton of it. No such thing as free money in this sport. McGregor throws one of those blinding kicks and rips his groin it is lights out.

[hcfightgear]

with all due respect to all you fine cappers after the silva loss I have to say nobody really knows a dam thing period

Thing is, you go back in time and i still wouldn't pick Bisping. Handicapping is educated guessing. Not throwing the educated part out over one crazy fight.

[JIBBBY]

Nunes ko is the most likely outcome.

Probably right, Liz Carmouche dropped her.. http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Valen...evchenko-45384

[JIBBBY]

Thinking Brandon Thatch might be a broken fighter mentally..

Seems like he's finding ways to lose in fights once they get tough for him even though he's a very talented fighter.. Mentally he is weak IMO.. Thatch is currently the type of fighter that simply doesn't make it one way or the other to the final bell anyways.. http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Brandon-Thatch-22298

This could be another tough fight again for Thatch that drags on.. Blackzillian trained Siyar is pretty damn hard to finish and has more
experience then Thatch. He really needs a win badly just like Thatch as well..http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Siyar-Bahadurzada-5453

Thinking dog play maybe at these odds anyways...

UFC 196 - Welterweight 3 rounds - MGM Grand Garden Arena - Las Vegas, Nevada - FS1
Sat 3/5		1501 Siyar Bahadurzada		+245	o1½ -110
9:30PM		1502 Brandon Thatch		-290	u1½ -110

[mirinquads]

Probably right, Liz Carmouche dropped her.. http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Valen...evchenko-45384

What leads you to that conclusion?

[Sanity Check]

Probably right, Liz Carmouche dropped her.. http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Valen...evchenko-45384

Valentina Shevchenko is a striking specialist. She has 2 or 3 wins over Joanna Jedrzejczyk in kickboxing. She took her last fight in the UFC with Sarah Kaufman on something like 7 days notice. She's a decent prospect. I haven't seen the fight but Carmouche probably outwrestled Shevchenko to a TKO. I doubt it was a stand up battle.

[JC2008]

Valentina Shevchenko is a striking specialist. She has 2 or 3 wins over Joanna Jedrzejczyk in kickboxing. She took her last fight in the UFC with Sarah Kaufman on something like 7 days notice. She's a decent prospect. I haven't seen the fight but Carmouche probably outwrestled Shevchenko to a TKO. I doubt it was a stand up battle.

If she beat JJ at anything she may be worth a wager for this guy! Sounds like she can outstrike her to a decision victory but I admittedly have alot of research to do. I have this thing where I hate betting on women who are fighting.

[stefan084]

where's that Vaughany (something like that) guy? also who should I tail on here? trying to get back into MMA prop betting etc. also don't give me any sh*t because I'm a complete badass as witnessed by my avatar

[JoshKnows46]

If she beat JJ at anything she may be worth a wager for this guy! Sounds like she can outstrike her to a decision victory but I admittedly have alot of research to do. I have this thing where I hate betting on women who are fighting.

Nunes gonna run through her, watch tape on Valentina before throwing your money away. Valentina should have a gameplan to get this fight down, but nunes has the tdd to keep it standing.

[JIBBBY]

I need to watch tape on Valentina myself. I was just pre capping off sherdog records with my above post.. I do know Nunes very well but not Valentina..

Good input though fellas.. We'll get this right when all said and done..

[Kermit]

Probably right, Liz Carmouche dropped her.. http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Valen...evchenko-45384

Shevchenko claims that loss was because of an illegal kick.

[JIBBBY]

Shevchenko claims that loss was because of an illegal kick.

I guess it was Kermit.. I don't remember that fight or I didn't see it back in 2010 and just went off the Sherdog TKO retirement.. My bad... Miri called me out on that...

[JIBBBY]

Need a few more days before I lay down the prop law on this event...

I feed off all the event write ups, weigh in those predictions against what I already know, compare stats and fighter trends, watch last fight vids then work the prop odds when they come out.. This all starts when the event preview and prediction write ups and props all come out.. They are not all out yet..

I've been liking what I've been reading off MMAmania lately.. Part 1 and Part 2 prelim write ups are usually very solid.. Probably will come out by Wednesday.. At that point I will begin capping all fights in depth within a 2 day span..

You guys have the jump on me with the Josh event thread.. I'm reading in on your guys posts and picks..

[PaperTrail07]

right.....lol...not everyone was on Silva.....

What about the people who bet on Bisping? There are alot of people here who are very knowledgeable. That being said, if everyone had all the winners all the time we wouldn't be discussing, we'd be cashing tickets non-stop.

[PaperTrail07]

Look at the over in the Silva/Taleb over 1.5 if you want a flat out winner !@

where's that Vaughany (something like that) guy? also who should I tail on here? trying to get back into MMA prop betting etc. also don't give me any sh*t because I'm a complete badass as witnessed by my avatar

[JIBBBY]

Look at the over in the Silva/Taleb over 1.5 if you want a flat out winner !@

UFC 196 - Featherweight 3 rounds - MGM Grand Garden Arena - Las Vegas, Nevada - FS1
Sat 3/5		1601 Nordine Taleb		+180	o1½ -145
9:00PM		1602 Erick Silva		-220	u1½ +125

I like it Paper, Erick Silva is fairly durable doesn't really have one punch knock out or great take downs, Taleb goes to decision in his fights alot as well.. http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Nordine-Taleb-26261

I'll hit it at -145 with ya.. Why not... 1.5 rounds is the clincher rather then 2.5 over for me.... Good find for those odds Paper!!!!

$290.00

$200.00

Pending

3/5/16 9:00pm UFC Fighting 1601 Nordine Taleb/Erick Silva Over 1½ -145*

[PaperTrail07]

Awesome----Winner Winner IMO

UFC 196 - Featherweight 3 rounds - MGM Grand Garden Arena - Las Vegas, Nevada - FS1
Sat 3/5		1601 Nordine Taleb		+180	o1½ -145
9:00PM		1602 Erick Silva		-220	u1½ +125

I like it Paper, Erick Silva is fairly durable doesn't really have one punch knock out or great take downs, Taleb goes to decision in his fights alot as well.. http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Nordine-Taleb-26261

I'll hit it at -145 with ya.. Why not... 1.5 rounds is the clincher rather then 2.5 over for me.... Good find for those odds Paper!!!!

$290.00

$200.00

Pending

3/5/16 9:00pm UFC Fighting 1601 Nordine Taleb/Erick Silva Over 1½ -145*

[Shagdogy]

Was really hoping to see McGregor/Diaz set at 1.5 rounds. Woulda pounded that over. I think Diaz, while he has almost no chance of winning, can hang in there for a beating. I woulda loved over 1.5, but even at plus money I don't know if I am on board for over 2.5.

[JoshKnows46]

Was really hoping to see McGregor/Diaz set at 1.5 rounds. Woulda pounded that over. I think Diaz, while he has almost no chance of winning, can hang in there for a beating. I woulda loved over 1.5, but even at plus money I don't know if I am on board for over 2.5.

Bet over 1 round and over 2 rounds. if diaz was in shape I'd say mcgregor finishes late 3rd early 4th. Since he's not I'm think late 2nd, early 3rd, will have the majority of my money on the 3rd round mcgregor finish and fight to start the 2nd round. Small stabs. On 2nd and 4th round finish.

[JIBBBY]

^^ Becareful, McGregor hits like a truck and all he does is knock out people.... I think that's a sketchy bet.. If Nate was a wrestler I'd say ok, but he's a standup fighter..

Diaz brothers can take punishment though and are almost impossible to knock out but we are talking about a beefed and trained up McGregor against a short notice call up Nate Diaz that could be out of shape and be looking to pack it in early for just a pay day....

McGregor also predicted a 1st round KO...

I still don't know how I'm going to bet this fight????

[richie360]

^^ Becareful, McGregor hits like a truck and all he does is knock out people.... I think that's a sketchy bet.. If Nate was a wrestler I'd say ok, but he's a standup fighter..

Diaz brothers can take punishment though and are almost impossible to knock out but we are talking about a beefed and trained up McGregor against a short notice call up Nate Diaz that could be out of shape and be looking to pack it in early for just a pay day....

McGregor also predicted a 1st round KO...

I still don't know how I'm going to bet this fight????

Don't think Diaz will willingly cave, McGregor going to have to bring the heat. Diaz is a tough dude,and my head is telling me go with the over. On the other hand I've been betting what McGregor has been predicting for the last few fights and its been working out. Like you say, he says round 1.