[sleung]

Swick has never fought a high level grappler. I fact he has never fought a black belt in jujitsu. The UFC has hand picked fights for him with equal average fighters. Yes he wins some of those fights but he has not fought a dangerous high level fighter or grappler in the past.
The reason why Swick is the online betting favorite is because he has better marketing behind him. Because the welterweight is dominated by George St Pierre the UFC has tried to market and hype fighters that are no where near the caliber and skill the UFC makes them out to be.

http://www.fighting-mma.com/mma-matc...aul-thiago.php

[Kaladarus]

This will be a good fight for sure. Paulo Thiago has a good chin and as long as he can avoid getting knocked out, he will probably grapple his way to victory.

[Pride>UFC]

Mike Swick = ultimate fighter loser

Paulo Thiago= had to earn his spot in the UFC

Same situation with Vera/Krystof and Thiago Silva and Jardine...i'll take thiago..

[RobbReport]

was thinking Thiago, but i'm concerned about his boxing and reaction timing. He gets hit alot and Swick has good speed and power.

[JuicedUp]

Swick comes back with a vengeance in this one. This is going to be another stand up war and swick def has better hands than thiago.

[36mafia]

Swick comes back with a vengeance in this one. This is going to be another stand up war and swick def has better hands than thiago.

thiago takes this easily
hammered this play when the lines were +175

[terpkeg]

I think Thiago is getting too much love in this thread and think line is close to accurate, maybe even value on Swick at -195.

From what I have seen Thiago is not great off of his back. He seems to turtle up and give his back up in an effort to get back to his feet. Must of his subs in smaller promotions were by Arm Triangle leading me to believe he favors top position. He also has a good anacanda choke.

Now I dont see Thiago getting top control easily on Swick. Although Thiago looked larger and stronger his last time out (I am guessing he is training full time now and putting on mass), Swick willl still be the bigger, stronger and longer fighter. Swick also has good balance. Ben Saunders has looked very strong (physically) for a WW, but Swick was the stronger of the two in the clinch.

As for the stand up, Thiago obviously came into the UFC with underrated standup, but Swick has the good chin. Even if you say Thiago is a better than average MMA striker (not sold there), I still have Swick.

Maybe Thiago creates enough scrambles to wind up in favorable positions and takes advantage of Swick's defense from his back, maybe he catches him on the feet. But i see no shots from Thiago being successful if he even attempts any, and I think he is going to have difficulty getting the trip once pressed against the cage. I think Swick takes decision majority of time.

Also, Thiago's cardio didnt look great in third vs. Volkmann and wouldnt be suprised if he wore down and got stopped late in fight.