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Threw a kick, got taken down by a Finnish fighter that easily took his back and then choked him out. Kid is pretty gritty. He managed to stave off tapping for a bit, but not good overall. Will watch his other UFC fight to check out his striking. Will be hard to judge though, his opponent Torres is god awful too
^^ Save us some trouble on watching vids Tpow.. Give us your final assessment...
Alex Torres clipped him really good in middle of the 1st round. Had him on shaky legs but kept trying to finish it with punches instead of take it the ground. Just clipped him again late in the 1st round, enough for Masio to take a slow step or 2 back and fall. Torres couldn't pull of a single and then Masio got a desperation takedown. I'd say both guys were legitimately tagged 2-3 times in just the first round. Torres clinching at start of second round for 1.5+ minutes with control. Have to say Torres has failed on quite a few takedown attempts in the clinch. Struggled to defend the 1 in the open, but he did escape immediately. Torres slowed down after the clinching and got rocked late in the second a couple times. Final round coming. Easily 1-1 so far. Interested to see what happens in this 3rd round. This was a split decision
Torres tagged and nearly finished mid way through the 3rd. Flying knee landed from Fullen. Impressive gas tank on the kid, but he didn't grapple much at all. Torres seems gassed. Just missed on 3 more takedowns in this round. Just clinching for control against the cage. Should have been separated probably. 4th time was the charm, but Fullen got up immediately. Hard to tell if Fullen's takedown defense is that good or if Torres being gassed caused it.
Striking wise, Masio Fullen threw with a ton more volume in the 2nd and 3rd rounds and was able to overwhelm the wrestler Torres. He was tagged early and often in the 1st though by him and should have been taken down and subbed more than likely. Should have been a unanimous decision for Fullen IMO. Going through now to see who best represents Fullen as far as recent opponents for Caceres goes. I can't find one to be honest. Caceres got a steady diet of grapplers it seems like outside of Rivera, but Rivera is head and shoulders above Fullen in the striking department IMO. Going to say this ends up being a very crazy fight and something stupid happens that puts Caceres in a position to lock up a submission win. The only downside is that this fight will be so wild that I can see more than a couple different potential endings. I don't think Fullen can sub Caceres, even though his sub defense is really bad and I can't see Caceres knocking him out. I COULD see Caceres catching him with a solid shot and pouncing on him with a sub, but that kind of falls into the previous category. If the fight stays standing somehow, Fullen has a shot at a decision win, but I can't see him knocking Caceres out.
^^So it sounds like these cans will end up in a striking contest. Leeroy is a decent striker for point play in that regard.. So does he out point the Mexican standing TPow and win by decision?
Bruce Leeroy doesn't have alot of punching power so I'm not confident he can KO anyone at this point in his career....
They size up well for starters...
Rivera was only -140 going into that fight with Caceres?
No arguments here but Fullen's strike defense is really bad. He has that Taekwondo "I'll keep my chin up" style head movement and he'll get tagged because of it. I just can't see a way Caceres doesn't at least think about taking this fight to the ground. He's 2 for 2 on takedowns in like 8+ UFC fights but outside of a couple, they were all against grapplers.Originally Posted by JIBBBY
Yeah that was a gift.. I remember hitting that hard... Easy money... Bruce Leeroy has been good fade material lately that's why I'm reluctant to try him even in this fight.. He just kinda sucks...Rivera was only -140 going into that fight with Caceres?
I've been looking into this fight since yesterday since the odds are up on the board already.. I do know both of these fighters.. This is actually a good match up... No clear cut winner in this one..
UFC on Fox 18 - Bantamweight 3 rounds - Newark, New Jersey - Fox Sat 1/30 1201 Jimmie Rivera -165 o2½ -165 8:30PM 1202 Iuri Alcantara +145 u2½ +145
Iuri Alcantara has alot of UFC experience.. That sticks out to me the most.. Alcantara is very athletic and pretty well rounded.. I don't see Jimmie Rivera dominating in any area but I do see him out working Alcantara if this becomes a point scoring contest... Jimmi Rivera is solid, has been kicking arse and taking numbers lately but mostly in lessor organizations.. He's just 2 fights deep into the UFC now....http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Jimmie-Rivera-40954
Initial lean is towards this prop as I think this fight goes the distance...
1207 Rivera wins by 3 round decision +121
I'm also thinking of maybe this combination as a safe play - Alcantara straight at +145 and hedging Rivera by Decision at +121... I would be risking alot to win a little though with this... Alcantara has never suffered from a legit KO loss in 38 pro fights (that's impressive) so I highly doubt Rivera knocks him out...http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Iuri-Alcantara-16129
Still at the early stages of capping even this fight.. Just throwing out some early thoughts..
Last edited by JIBBBY; 01-19-16 at 03:00 PM.
Sure but he lost to some contenders in Rivera, Faber, and even Kanehara. This is a major step down in competition. This guy certainly isn't Rivera on the feet or Faber and Kanehara on the ground. I just worry this line will open over -300 or so
Think I posted something about Rivera earlier. At first glance, I really like him at that price. He's a legit top 8 type fighter in that division
Can't over look Alcantara in this one Tpow, cap Alcantara more and look at his game.. Dude is a legit veteran.. Athletic and well rounded..
I only took the over so far in this fight.. I'm still on the fence on picking a clear winner..
$170.00 $103.00 Pending 1/30/16 8:30pm UFC Fighting 1201 Jimmie Rivera/Iuri Alcantara Over 2½ -165*
Last edited by JIBBBY; 01-19-16 at 08:53 PM.
What's with danas gay fascination with this Northcutt kid. I saw that finding a fighter pilot and he has a major hard on for him...
Anyways Bader looks like the play
Not saying I don't like him but on the main card? Really?
I think I'm gonna go with Iuri Alcantara for the straight win as a dog play, he's fought guys like Uriah Faber in their MMA primes.. He could win this fight by decision. Outside chance he can win by sub or KO but not likely against Rivera.... Alcantara will have a 5" height advantage going in..
$200.00 $300.00 Pending 1/30/16 8:30pm UFC Fighting 1202 Iuri Alcantara +150* vs Jimmie Rivera
Iuri Alcantara quietly fly's under the UFC radar and I don't know why? This is a short list of guys he's fought competitively in the past..
Ricardo Lamas - KO win
Hacran Diaz - Decision win
Uriah Faber - Decision loss
Vaughan Lee - KO win
Frankie Saenz - Decision Loss
Francisco Trinaldo - Sub win
Doane and Issa both decision wins recently, etc...
And a bunch more well known names - http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Iuri-Alcantara-16129
He KO'd Ricardo Lamas 5 years ago..
Nice throw on Faber
Last edited by JIBBBY; 01-19-16 at 10:14 PM.
He's the new pretty wonder boy poster kid for the UFC. He's becoming a big draw now for the UFC/Zuffa money making machine..
Waiting for the ITD prop for Sage myself.. Kid isn't losing this fight..
Last edited by JIBBBY; 01-19-16 at 09:07 PM.
Have done some digging on Randy Brown, the guy Matt Dwyer is fighting in the first Fight Pass prelim fight. Apparently he's just a really good athlete with some decent punching, but he literally admitted wrestling is new to him. All the ground film is him sweeping from the bottom, not sure how they got there. He is a very aggressive fighter though. Should have known the UFC wouldn't hand free money out by matching either guy up against a grappler. A decent grappler would destroy both of these guys. Dwyer's standup is just so awkward that I can't trust him against virtually anyone, but he's facing a very green Randy Brown that has only been fighting for a year and a half or so. Dwyer's chin isn't too bad. Being KO'd by Tumenov means absolutely nothing. He survived with Jouban for 3 rounds after taking some shots. I would set this line at Dwyer around -200, but I'm almost positive this is a no play for me
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The other UFC newbie on the card is Felipe Olivieri and he fights out of Nova Unaio with the likes of Aldo and Barao. He's mostly a MT striker like most others there and he is an athletic guy, but he throws with a lot of power and consistency like a Barao. He's a little too aggressive and his heavy kick emphasis tends to result in him ending up on his back alot. He is pretty decent off his back, at least enough to not get subbed. His main goal from bottom is to sweep to the top and deliver ground and pound. His punching leaves a lot to be desired. He tends to leave his head on the center line and get caught with counter strikes. His place to be is in the clinch delivering knees.
Tony Martin is only 26, weird. Anyways, it's been over 10 months since his late notice sub loss to Leo Santos. It'll be interesting to see what they year at American Top Team did for him. Santos was also a Nova Unaio fighter, so that probably isn't a good thing for his current fight, but Santos has a heck of a lot more tools than Olivieri does. Olivieri's losses don't look that good on paper to me, while Martin's losses are against very good UFC level fighters like Dariush and Magomedov. The Santos fight was tightly lined with him even being a slight favorite. Martin isn't the best striker in the world for sure but he'll have 5 inches of reach and he's a solid bruising type athlete who can bore fights out in the clinch. I think Olivieri will be too wild for his own good in this fight and end up getting put on his back because of it. I think Martin will be able to hold him there enough to score and Olivieri's strike defense won't do him any favors either
I think I'm gonna go with Iuri Alcantara for the straight win as a dog play, he's fought guys like Uriah Faber in their MMA primes.. He could win this fight by decision. Outside chance he can win by sub or KO but not likely against Rivera.... Alcantara will have a 5" height advantage going in..
$200.00 $300.00 Pending 1/30/16 8:30pm UFC Fighting 1202 Iuri Alcantara +150* vs Jimmie Rivera
Iuri Alcantara quietly fly's under the UFC radar and I don't know why? This is short list of guys he's fought competitively in the past..
Ricardo Lamas - KO win
Hacran Diaz - Decision win
Uriah Faber - Decision loss
Vaughan Lee - KO win
Frankie Saenz - Decision Loss
Francisco Trinaldo - Sub win
Doane and Issa both decision wins recently, etc...
And a bunch more well known names - http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Iuri-Alcantara-16129
He KO'd Ricardo Lamas 5 years ago..
Nice throw on Faber
If theres a finish in this fight, Its alcantara by KO. Decision is up for grabs, most likely rivera as alcantara is very selectve with his shots. Almost doesnt throw. The numbers are quite significant in this matchup, while rivera throws 6 strikes per min alcantara 1.94. Could be a split dec to either guy. Rivera probably outlands alcantara but the judges could see an entirely different fight.
Rivera is tough as nails and pretty tough to hit. He should easily outland Alcantara in this fight and pick up the decision unless something crazy happens
Not only that, he has has the wrestling to score points also, although he rarely likes to go for takedowns. Im not sure we can rest on the fact that he has the wrestling skills to go for takedowns when he hates to take people down. He prefer to use his wrestling in reverse. Although he should easily outland alcantara, he does get hit often. He absorbs 4,5 strikes per minute, and thats some of the highest numbers ive seen in this category. He was also rocked in against munhoz and a bunch of other fights pre-ufc. So if he gets hit a again, and Koed i wouldnt call that crazy when he actually does get hit in every fight. Alcantara has power although he usually goes to decision. The blueprint to beat alcantara is already out there, its to faber and saenz alcantara on the ground and not get subbed, but i dont see this route for rivera as i said, cause he hates to take people down.
He gets hit a lot because he throws a ton. His strike defense rate is around 65% in the UFC so far.
Its a great point, its not possible to throw that many punches without getting hit. But his chin isnt conor mcregors or condits. But im pretty high in rivera, i also cashed in in his debut, when people almost yelled at me thinking brimage had so much ufc experience. Skipped the munhoz fight, but this slightly to moderately a step down in competition and an ok matchup for rivera.
^^Well good luck fellas on Rivera, he can certainly win this fight by decision and I won't argue that....
I'm going Alcantara though at +150, he's had more big name fights, a true UFC veteran, he has the reach advantage, he moves pretty well, and i think he can conceivably win this fight if he doesn't get grapple focked by Rivera which I don't think he will..
Maybe you shouldn't get greedy and just go with the O2.5 with this fight Miri.. It's still at plus odds...
UFC on Fox 18 - Heavyweight 3 rounds - Newark, New Jersey - Fox Sat 1/30 1101 Josh Barnett -160 o2½ +135 9:00PM 1102 Ben Rothwell +140 u2½ -155
Greed is good when you win. I got GTD too though, but if it does go the distance, I think it's Barnett 70%ish of the time.
For a half a round more the odds do jump from +135 to +160.. Safe to say if these big meatballs are still fighting at the midway point of the final round it probably goes to decision..
1103 Barnett / Rothwell goes 3 round distance +160
I agree with your assessment so far Tpow....
On paper Martin is probably the play even though he's had a recent tough run in the UFC..http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Tony-Martin-80436
I still need to see some more vid on this Brazilian Olivieri kid before I jump to conclusions.. Martin relies heavily on his submission game and it looks like this Brazilian doesn't get sub'd out.. If he's training with the likes of Aldo and Barao you know he's a legit striker first..I'm sure his Jits or (anti-jits) is polished as well... That's all a concern for anyone betting on Tony Martin.. Hey, but If Martin can use his reach to keep out of harms way early on or clinch up and grind then he could win on points and begin to wear down the Brizilian are my early thoughts....
Based on what I know and have seen already this Brazilian comes out blasting looking to knock your head off... He seems compact and powerful.. 10 of his 14 wins have come by KO in these no name organizations. I don't know any of these cans he beat in Brazil honestly though.. http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Felipe-Olivieri-28181
This is Olivieri's first fight in the UFC and in the States, and beating Tony Martin is tall order.. Could be a Tony Martin straight win play, with the Olivieri KO prop hedge... IDK?
Need to see the odds on this fight and more video......
This is Olivieri in action getting the KO..
Last edited by JIBBBY; 01-20-16 at 09:11 PM.
I think if Martin survives the first round or so he'll be able to outpoint him for the decision or maybe finish him with some GnP
I'm gonna play this angle on the Bader/Rumble fight.. Power hedge play!!!
Thinking Rumble's best chance to win is in round 1.. Rumble should begin to fade if Bader is still around to start the 2nd round one would think.. Bader will probably have a beat on Rumble by the 2nd round and won't get knocked out after that.. Bader's fight to win after the 1st round in other words...
Remember Rumble in recent fights came out swinging and knocked out Gus in that 1st round, he also really tried hard to knock out DC and almost did it the 1st round as well.. That's Rumbles M.O. anyways..
So with that in mind -
$150.00 $570.00 Pending 1/30/16 11:00pm UFC Fighting 1001 Ryan Bader +380* vs Anthony Johnson
Hedge -
$220.00 $407.00 Pending 1/30/16 11:00pm MMA Props Fighting 1025 Johnson wins in round 1 +185* vs Any other result
Risking $370.00 (It all blows up if Bader gets dropped after round 1)
So if Bader wins the fight the net profit will be $350.00
If Rumble goes nuts and blasts thru Bader in the first round like he normally does then the net profit will be $250.00
Note - I was thinking of playing Bader ITD distance at +590 with an earlier post but decided to pass on that after all.. I still think Bader has a decent chance of finishing Rumble ITD if it goes in to the later rounds.. Playing it safer and for lessor value I thought it best to play Bader straight at the +380 instead (combined with the hedge)..
Last edited by JIBBBY; 01-21-16 at 01:12 PM.
What would Johnson in 1 or 2 and Bader ML be?
I guess you can throw the round 2 prop in the mix as well Tpow.... Not a bad idea really. Maybe throw in another $100 on the round 2 prop to fully cover rounds 1 and 2.. We'll see? I do think Rumble will be almost no threat to Bader in rounds 3, 4 and 5 if it ever goes that far.. Rumble will be breathing hard and sucking wind while Bader will have the cardio advantage then..
I'm not sure if I want to get that conservative and end up just winning $150 or $250 while risking $470 in total....
1027 Johnson wins in round 2 +325
Last edited by JIBBBY; 01-21-16 at 03:29 PM.
These are the props for the fight anyways....
Straight Bet
Please select your wager.
MMA Props Fighting Spread Money Line Ryan Bader vs Anthony Johnson - Light Heavyweight 5 rounds - UFC on Fox 18 Sat 1/30 1003 Bader / Johnson goes 5 round distance +350 11:00PM 1004 Fight won’t go 5 round distance -485 Sat 1/30 1005 Bader wins inside distance +600 11:00PM 1006 Not Bader inside distance -1050 Sat 1/30 1007 Bader wins by 5 round decision +605 11:00PM 1008 Not Bader by 5 round decision -1060 Sat 1/30 1009 Johnson wins inside distance -262 11:00PM 1010 Not Johnson inside distance +202 Sat 1/30 1011 Johnson wins by 5 round decision +786 11:00PM 1012 Not Johnson by 5 round decision -1432 Sat 1/30 1013 Bader / Johnson draw +15000 11:00PM 1014 Fight not a draw -45000 Sat 1/30 1015 Bader wins in round 1 +1375 11:00PM 1016 Any other result -3425 Sat 1/30 1017 Bader wins in round 2 +1875 11:00PM 1018 Any other result -5625 Sat 1/30 1019 Bader wins in round 3 +2375 11:00PM 1020 Any other result -7125 Sat 1/30 1021 Bader wins in round 4 +3375 11:00PM 1022 Any other result -12630 Sat 1/30 1023 Bader wins in round 5 +4375 11:00PM 1024 Any other result -17130 Sat 1/30 1025 Johnson wins in round 1 +185 11:00PM 1026 Any other result -265 Sat 1/30 1027 Johnson wins in round 2 +325 11:00PM 1028 Any other result -475 Sat 1/30 1029 Johnson wins in round 3 +625 11:00PM 1030 Any other result -1275 Sat 1/30 1031 Johnson wins in round 4 +925 11:00PM 1032 Any other result -1875 Sat 1/30 1033 Johnson wins in round 5 +1550 11:00PM 1034 Any other result -4650 Sat 1/30 1035 Bader wins by submission +925 11:00PM 1036 Any other result -1875 Sat 1/30 1037 Bader wins by TKO/KO +1350 11:00PM 1038 Any other result -3250 Sat 1/30 1039 Johnson wins by submission +2320 11:00PM 1040 Any other result -6950 Sat 1/30 1041 Johnson wins by TKO/KO -245 11:00PM 1042 Any other result +175 Sat 1/30 1043 Bader wins by 5 round unanimous dec +860 11:00PM 1044 Any other result -1760 Sat 1/30 1045 Bader wins by 5 round split/maj dec +1431 11:00PM 1046 Any other result -3875 Sat 1/30 1047 Johnson wins by 5 round unanimous dec +1065 11:00PM 1048 Any other result -2195 Sat 1/30 1049 Johnson wins by 5 round split/maj dec +1960 11:00PM 1050 Any other result -5880 Sat 1/30 1051 Bader / Johnson starts round 5 +287 11:00PM 1052 Fight won’t start round 5 -377 Sat 1/30 1053 Bader / Johnson starts round 4 +192 11:00PM 1054 Fight won’t start round 4 -252 Sat 1/30 1055 Bader / Johnson starts round 3 +110 11:00PM 1056 Fight won’t start round 3 -140 Sat 1/30 1057 Bader / Johnson starts round 2 -208 11:00PM 1058 Fight won’t start round 2 +167 if fight goes to scorecards all wagers are no action Sat 1/30 1059 Bader (scorecards = no action) +498 11:00PM 1060 Johnson (scorecards = no action) -792 any victory inside distance is a winner for selected fighter, see sportsbook rules for grading details Sat 1/30 1061 Bader points handicap +5½ +250 11:00PM 1062 Johnson points handicap
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