[Sanity Check]

[JIBBBY]

Ruthless Rob is talking shit - says GSP is going to get knocked out if he comes back and fights him, Lawler even said he'd fight Connor McGregor and knock him out too.. I think he's getting ahead of himself if he's looking past Condit..

Good Bleacher report interview and read with Lawler - http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2...ondit-and-more

[THE_LOCKSMITH]

'Cowboy' Cerrone moves to 170, meets Tim Means in UFC Fight Night 82 main event

[JoshKnows46]

'Cowboy' Cerrone moves to 170, meets Tim Means in UFC Fight Night 82 main event

awesome matchup, cant wait.

[Kermit]

Holly Holm NOT fighting Rousey next. Opponent to be named.

Tate would make the most sense.

[JIBBBY]

Donald Cowboy Cerrone goes up to 170 and fights Tim Means next month.. He could get his ass kicked again... Dirty Bird ain't no joke especially if he's much larger then Cowboy at fight time... I suspect Tim Means will be about 10 pounds heavier.. I think I'm on Tim Means...

UFC Fight Night 82 - Welterweight 5 rounds - Consol Energy Center - Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania - PPV
Sun 2/21		1001 Donald Cerrone		-135	o2½ -105
11:30PM		1002 Tim Means		-105	u2½ -135

[TPowell]

idk I think Cerrone finds some kind of rhythm in these fights that don't mean much and fights he takes without really prepping for. Would have to watch some film on this but maybe not cutting as much weight helps his body be more durable because lets be honest, his body is made of glass when it comes to striking

[Kermit]

Holm/Tate McGregor/Dos Anjos at UFC 197

[JIBBBY]

Holm/Tate McGregor/Dos Anjos at UFC 197

VERY SOLID!!! Awesome match ups!!! http://espn.go.com/mma/story/_/id/14...adline-ufc-197

Mesha might be able to handle Holm standing and even take her down at times.. Could spell trouble for Holly Holm..

RDA is a beast and I will never bet against that dude, learned my lesson.. McGregor won't be the favorite in this one either.. McIrish really might get worked as RDA has very solid take downs and can seriously throw down standing with anyone.. McGregor coming up in weight might take away his huge size advantages like he's had in the past..

5dimes -

fight must occur in USA on or before December 31, 2016 for action
Sat 12/31		1005 Rafael dos Anjos		-130	o2½ -120
11:59PM		1006 Conor McGregor		+100	u2½ -120

[THE_LOCKSMITH]

Holm/Tate McGregor/Dos Anjos at UFC 197

They are saying its most likely taking place in Vegas, so 197 is not in Brazil like once thought. Also Its March 5th which gives Connor 4 months to rest up and be on the UFC 200 card on July 9th

[brooks85]

conor's fall begins unless he gets another fluke win. 3 losses in a row coming

RDA
aldo
mendes

[mirinquads]

conor's fall begins unless he gets another fluke win. 3 losses in a row coming

RDA
aldo
mendes

Why do you insist on embarrassing your self with every post?

[brooks85]

Why do you insist on embarrassing your self with every post?

poor miri, still lost in the woods.


Hey, entertaining watching you trying to get out tho!

[mirinquads]

poor miri, still lost in the woods.


Hey, entertaining watching you trying to get out tho!

This just in:

Brooks tries to look on top when getting destroyed, fools nobody!


Still thinks Conor is not legit. That's why you're a losing gambler and the laughing stock of the forum.

[brooks85]

This just in:

Brooks tries to look on top when getting destroyed, fools nobody!


Still thinks Conor is not legit. That's why you're a losing gambler and the laughing stock of the forum.

you mean the sub-forum.

That is why your dumbass didn't know about BTP. Little troll spent too much time in the mma section huh? lol lost in the woods. "the forum" lol moron.


And I don't have to "try and look on top" against you. As we have already discussed it is your perception vs reality. The fact is you have already walked into two traps I laid just for you. And you walked right into the trap I laid for you and your crew over a year ago. These are facts miri, no one can refute this. Post history does not lie.

[brooks85]

no worries though miri, I saw you asking jibby about BTP. If you win anything next year you owe me a tip...

here is another tip, stop being a non-pro. It is -ev especially considering the time spend here. Even 5mins a day makes pro "worth" it. You weren't aware of BTP well guess what? There is more than one contest per year + a sportsbook to bet those "pizza points."

Yeah, who doesn't like free stuff or at least stuff earned with very little effort?

[mirinquads]

Oh yeah, your "traps", that did nothing but make your self look like a complete dumbass. Not that you needed help with that though.

I like how you admitted that you're the laughing stock of the "sub forum" as well. Not even trying to defend your self at this point.


These points are useless to me, as I'm not in America. I'd give them all to you, so you can eat your self fat(ter) in Pizza but.. eh.

[TPowell]

conor's fall begins unless he gets another fluke win. 3 losses in a row coming

RDA
aldo
mendes

LOL, Aldo has zero shot of ever beating Conor. Mendes has zero shot as well. The only way Conor loses 3 in a row is if he loses to RDA, fights Khabib, and then maybe.... nevermind, sorry he isn't losing 3 in a row

[Kermit]

LOL, Aldo has zero shot of ever beating Conor. Mendes has zero shot as well. The only way Conor loses 3 in a row is if he loses to RDA, fights Khabib, and then maybe.... nevermind, sorry he isn't losing 3 in a row

.... Drops back to 145 and fights Edgar.

[JoshKnows46]

conor's fall begins unless he gets another fluke win. 3 losses in a row coming

RDA
aldo
mendes

He wont lose one in a row, anytime soon, Connor beats Rda...what many here aren't relizing is connor will be much stronger at this weight class, has anyone seen him at weigh ins? He's built for lightweight, will be much stronger, better wrestling and have a better gas tank at lightweight and will still dwarf rda. I also believe Rda won't be afraid to strike with him, because he struck with pettis and cowboy, Connor is 2 levels up on pettis/cowboy, Connor is the best counter striker in the Ufc, rdas confident in his stand up and forward pressure will be his downfall, I already max bet connor at +105 for starters.

[brooks85]

LOL, Aldo has zero shot of ever beating Conor. Mendes has zero shot as well. The only way Conor loses 3 in a row is if he loses to RDA, fights Khabib, and then maybe.... nevermind, sorry he isn't losing 3 in a row

Watch their first fight, would be risky to count on mendes gassing again.

you should also watch aldo/conor again. It is a perfect example of a fluke win. Rematch can't count on aldo to do something stupid again. Not a smart bet.





Conor can't stop RDA TDs.

[JIBBBY]

He wont lose one in a row, anytime soon, Connor beats Rda...what many here aren't relizing is connor will be much stronger at this weight class, has anyone seen him at weigh ins? He's built for lightweight, will be much stronger, better wrestling and have a better gas tank at lightweight and will still dwarf rda. I also believe Rda won't be afraid to strike with him, because he struck with pettis and cowboy, Connor is 2 levels up on pettis/cowboy, Connor is the best counter striker in the Ufc, rdas confident in his stand up and forward pressure will be his downfall, I already max bet connor at +105 for starters.

I think RDA will try to take down Connor as soon as possible.. That is his best chance to win.. RDA is 3rd degree legit BJJ and Connor will have no answer for that.

RDA for sub win is my best guess...

[JoshKnows46]

I think RDA will try to take down Connor as soon as possible.. That is his best chance to win.. RDA is 3rd degree legit BJJ and Connor will have no answer for that.

RDA for sub win is my best guess...

He better TRY as soon as possible...

[JoshKnows46]

Rda won't sub mcgregor, for a hedge I'd go with rda by decision, closer to fight time as. McGregor becomes favorite because of popularity, if he can implement a lay n pray effort, that would be his only chance. Mcgregors sub defeats came when the ground game wasn't known in ireland, Connor trains with gunnar nelson, if rda goes after sub attempts, it will only allow mcgregor to get back up to his feet.mcgregor by ko, with rda Dec 1/ 3RD the size of ur mcgregor play, as a hedge is the smartest way to go.

[JIBBBY]

Rda won't sub mcgregor, for a hedge I'd go with rda by decision, closer to fight time as. McGregor becomes favorite because of popularity, if he can implement a lay n pray effort, that would be his only chance. Mcgregors sub defeats came when the ground game wasn't known in ireland, Connor trains with gunnar nelson, if rda goes after sub attempts, it will only allow mcgregor to get back up to his feet.mcgregor by ko, with rda Dec 1/ 3RD the size of ur mcgregor play, as a hedge is the smartest way to go.

RDA straight and the McGregor KO prop for the hedge I would think depending on the odds...

[getlucky2win]

u guys are hilarious. fck a hedge

[JIBBBY]

u guys are hilarious. fck a hedge

Don't knock the prop hedge bets to protect bankroll.. I'm sold that they work and I've been steadily protecting bank roll and winning while using them in the right spots against the straights.. Small price to pay for the insurance..

Gambling should always be about winning more then you lose..

[JoshKnows46]

u guys are hilarious. fck a hedge

Nothing wrong with hedging in the correct spots, I'm speaking on hedging for those that like to do it, I only hedge in certain spots, this won't be a fight a hedge, just telling others which would be the smartest way to hedge it. Dos anjos Dec hedge will be of greater value then mcgregor ko hedge as mcgregor ko is the most likely outcome and I'd be very impressed if rda can survive the 5 rounds, also mcgregor by ko won't be much more value then mcgregor straight as that is the way he wins all his fights, so there will be not enough value in it to use it as a hedge. Jibby likes to hedge for most of his fights, nothing wrong with it if he does it right, just telling him the correct way to hedge this fight, by most likely outcome and by the way the numbers will fall. Who are you betting on, I hope it's rda, ur great fade material. Haven't Seen you pick a fight correctly since you showed up last week, duffy and lawlar being your biggest bets lmfaooooo u gonna drop another 20K on rda? Lol

[JIBBBY]

^ I've had to adjust my betting strategies for MMA as I just haven't been picking them as consistently like I've done in years past..

I'm not a hot shot MMA gambler anymore on this forum and just a grinder these days.. I also believe as the sport evolves the fighters are becoming better and more evenly matched up.. It's not like it was 2 years ago and before when I couldn't miss a pick practically and was killing it..

So the hedge prop bets in MMA have reduced the risk of losing cards greatly for me..



Here is an example of how a prop hedge bet should work effectively - Let's take this McGregor fight for example..

The play is RDA to win -

We know Connor McGregor won't sub out RDA so take that out of the equation completely, we also know McGregor has been consistently knocking out his opponents one after the other so that will be his most likely pathway to victory... So you need to think McGregor by KO prop.. There is however a very slim chance McGregor can win by decision but I highly doubt it.. So we still look for the McGregor KO prop as the hedge against the RDA straight..

RDA to win straight at -125 = bet $250 to win $200

McGregor to win by KO prop +250 (Guessing those odds) $100 to win $250


So you're risking $350 to win $100 and eliminating most risk.. If Connor Mcgregor wins by Decision you lose the $350 as the only real risk.. It's a 5 round fight and I doubt it goes the distance..


^^^THIS is hedge bet thinking in MMA.. I've been burnt only once in probably the last 20 straight fight bets while hedging with the props.. I'll take that all day long.. It works...

[JoshKnows46]

Mcgregor by ko shouldn't be anywhere close to +250, rda won't sub or ko mcgregor and the rda Dec prob will be much higher then the mcgregor ko prob. If it makes it to dec, it means rda had a perfect gameplan, which is doubtful for many reasons, but a safe perfect gameplan is his path to victory. Which makes the rda Dec prob the much better hedge, as u also get conor by ko and straight at plus odds and that is the mostly likely outcome. Getting connor at plus money is absolute fantastic value, and that needs to be your biggest bet in this fight to maximize profit. The mcgregor ko prop won't be big enough to warrant a hedge unless the oddsmakers really drop the ball.

[JIBBBY]

Mcgregor by ko shouldn't be anywhere close to +250, rda won't sub or ko mcgregor and the rda Dec prob will be much higher then the mcgregor ko prob. If it makes it to dec, it means rda had a perfect gameplan, which is doubtful for many reasons, but a safe perfect gameplan is his path to victory. Which makes the rda Dec prob the much better hedge, as u also get conor by ko and straight at plus odds and that is the mostly likely outcome. Getting connor at plus money is absolute fantastic value, and that needs to be your biggest bet in this fight to maximize profit. The mcgregor ko prop won't be big enough to warrant a hedge unless the oddsmakers really drop the ball.

I'd say if you are on McGregor to win straight then RDA by decision or the win by Sub props would be good hedges to consider.. I don't like taking hedge bets though when I see 2 potential pathways to victory like I do with decision win or sub win for RDA..
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Why not +250 for McGregor by KO prop? Maybe +200 then.... He's a dog on the straight so the KO prop should double in odds..

For example - Matt Mitrone is +125 on the straight win and the KO prop is valued at +200 now..These are Heavyweights also and expected to finish.. Matt Mitrone like McGregor most likely pathway to victory is by KO..

[getlucky2win]

rofl. i made 5 figures last event. put up or shut up. if u guys want to make a bet and see who is more profitable im ready

[mirinquads]

Okay, you to do a pickoff this event. Winner takes the bragging rights, and Jibbys anal virginity (Lol like it's not long gone).. And the whole forum will TRAIL whoever is right next event. Sounds good no?

[JIBBBY]

Okay, you to do a pickoff this event. Winner takes the bragging rights, and Jibbys anal virginity (Lol like it's not long gone).. And the whole forum will TRAIL whoever is right next event. Sounds good no?

I don't want bragging rights, I just want to win bets and money.. That's all I'm trying to do with all these prop hedge betting posts. Just sharing ideas that typically work..

I actually root for all the guys posting like you to win and light it up..

[JIBBBY]

rofl. i made 5 figures last event. put up or shut up. if u guys want to make a bet and see who is more profitable im ready

Good for you.. On a smaller scale - I went from 0 bet points to 1200 bet points now in just 2 weeks time from strictly picking winners.. Worked off 12 bet points as a starting point..

On an even smaller scale business as usual on the 5Dimes betting contest.. Working on the 5 straight hit today.. This is how I roll..

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