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WSOF 22: Palhares vs. Shields (August 1st 2015)
Rousimar Palhares (c) vs. Jake Shields Marlon Moraes (c) vs. Sheymon Moraes Thiago Silva vs. Mike Kyle Abubakar Nurmagomedov vs. Jorge Moreno Jimmy Spicuzza vs. Islam Mamedov Jake Heun vs. Davin Clark Donavon Frelow vs. Carlos Garcia Jimmy Jones vs. Marco Simmons Cory Hendricks vs. Julio Hinojosa Gil Guardado vs. Pete Martin
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No lines up yet.. This looks like a decent card for WSOF standards..
Jake Sheilds lean because he's better on the ground for starters.. Jake won't get sub'd out and he will probably maintain top position most of the time... Jake by sub win or decision is what i'm thinking in this one.. Hope the line is doable...
Last edited by JIBBBY; 07-27-15 at 11:16 AM.
Everytime I watch Palhares, he leg locks someone .. I'll have to watch this Saturday.Originally Posted by JIBBBY
Palhares is more dangerous but Jake can get the dec win. Jake has amazing BJJ but he is not a leg lock expert. My feeling is... If Belcher can find a way to defend then Jake can.
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Jake is as solid as they come grappling and I'm sure he's worked very hard in defending the leg locks knowing he's facing Palhares..
Jake will be the better wrestler and that's what gonna matter most in this fight, both suck standing but Jake has the better chin... Jake's cardio has come into question in past fights so going the distance could be a concern if he cuts alot of weight going in. Don't think Palhares is a cardio machine either so maybe I shouldn't worry about that..
This is Jake's fight to win me tinks and depending on the odds the Jakester should be the call.....
Combatpress card preview and predicitons - http://combatpress.com/2015/07/wsof-...d-predictions/
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Looks like Thiago Silva is out.
Replacing Silva will be Clifford Starks.
http://mmajunkie.com/2015/07/cliffor...f-22-main-card
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Palhares has good leg locks.
I am throwing Nurmagomedov @ -400 into a few open big-juice parlays I have going. I think this Garcia kid is going to find himself very outmatched.
I'm going with the undefeated Shaymon Moreas as the only dog play on this main betting card.. On all the other favorites....
I don't know Jibby. Maybe it's worth a flier at +250, but Shaymon looks to be the lesser Moraes to me. I lean Marlon and the Over, but will pass on both.
I really am liking Clifford Starks @ -130. And the U 1.5 +125 seems like nice value as well.
Well at +265 I'll take my chances with the undefeated fighter for small... Like you said Marlon is probably the more polished and well rounded fighter of the two and I agree..http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Marlon-Moraes-30936
However, making that O go is always an x factor when betting... Not sure about the Over - thinking Sheymon might be more diversed with his striking training at team Nogueira and perhaps he might get the KO in this one..http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Sheym...a-Moraes-93951
I also like Clifford Starks over Mike Kyle... Odds are nice on that one... Good Luck KingHawk as I'm with ya on this play. The under might also hit in this one...
Last edited by JIBBBY; 07-30-15 at 05:03 PM.
The more I get digging, the more I lean to small or no play on Starks, and probably a small play under 1 1/2 at the +125. This Kyle character stands much taller and beefier it would appear. I would like it better if he went a slight bit shorter/stalkier. Going to hopefully find a weigh-in for these shenanigags, and that should turn my leans into bigger bets for me.
Gotta have a strong Saturday night with this and the UFC
Lol hope palhares loses
Was watching his last shetdog technique of the week and even in practice he let's go of chokes/holds late
really disappointed that the odds for shields are so bad. was hoping the hype of palhares would skew the odds a bit.
^ Yep, me too.. Jake Shields at over 2-1 odds is parlay material for me...
Gonna have to DVR this event because it over laps with the UFC event. Great scheduling MMA organizations.
These are my 2 small plays below for this event.. X4 books though.. Gonna be tunned into the UFC so this event takes a back seat.. Good Luck all!!!!
$50.00 $125.00 Pending 8/1/15 11:00pm WSOF Fighting 3101 Sheymon Moraes +250 vs Marlon Moraes
$50.00 $111.00 Pending 4 Team Parlay Pending 8/1/15 11:00pm WSOF Fighting 3002 Jake Shields -230 vs Rousimar Palhares Pending 8/1/15 11:00pm WSOF Fighting 3202 Islam Mamedov -750 vs Jimmy Spicuzza Pending 8/1/15 11:00pm WSOF Fighting 3301 Abubakar Nurmagomedov -530 vs Jorge Moreno Pending 8/1/15 11:00pm WSOF Fighting 3401 Clifford Starks -150 vs Mike Kyle
according to BFO, shields going rate seems to be -225ish now...
so, anybody who's been shying away cuzza da price who has Pinnacle...it's -190 there
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TL/DR alert: minutiae related to "parlay with legs to-be-specified later "
Shields -190 is good enough to lock in 1 unit as the 1st-leg of a manually-administered 1-leg-at-a-time full-flexibility "open parlay" to which i can add as many damn legs as i want to and stop when i bloody-well want...
i honestly can't understand why anyone willingly chooses to lock themselves into a prescribed number of legs at one book (taking away your ability to shop for the best price and lock in future legs at OTHER books...and also taking away your ability to just say "uncle" when you've decided you've played enough legs)...the so called "open parlay" that many very smart cookies seem to think is such a clever facility
look: you risk 100 now to win 52.63 on Shields...if it wins, you're free to shop around for the best price at any of your books for the second leg by risking 152.63...rinse/lather/repeat until a leg (hence your informal sequential "open parlay") loses or you decide to cash it in...notice that you're not forced by having had pre-declared this an "X-leg open parlay"...leaving you free to cash in your winnings after "X-2" or "X-1" legs if you prefer...
the only time i lock in an officially-designated parlay at any one book is when the events overlap, so you can't manually fold in the "stake plus winnings" from the previous legs because it simply hasn't finished yet when the next leg starts...in this case locking in an A*B parlay allows you to play B "as if" it had started after A had finished and you were able to fold that bet (plus its gains) into B (and vice-versa, interchanging the letters)...and furthermore you can know beforehand what the prices on both legs will be (which is the one detriment of the freestyle sequential parlay i describe above and advocate generally when legs don't actually overlap in time)...in fact, if prices that I like on two sequential parlay-fodder events are available at one book now...i just might lock them together into a formal simple parlay to guarantee the price on that second leg doesn't "drift" on me...but in no case will i ever oblige myself to future "legs to be determined" by using the "X-leg open parlay"...it's "one leg at a time" straight-play or a simple "full boat, no undetermined legs" parlay for me...
#freedom_to_shop #shields_now
Last edited by fitguy67; 07-31-15 at 05:10 PM.
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looks like Palhares has peaked out still at +175 on Bodog/Bovada, down to +145 on 5Dimes
You gonna play the Leg Lock specialist Palhares Locky?
Jake Shields standup and cardio (especially when he cuts big weight) have always been his greatest weaknesses.. This is a 5 round fight.. Thankfully Palhares isn't impressive standing, not a cardio king either, and he is certainly is not a better wrestler or grappler then Jake Shields..
Chin strength has to favor Jake Shields.. Jakey is cleaning up in WSOF (2-0 both 1st round finishes) and it will continue in this fight tomorrow night.. Jake Shields I think is still worthy of being in the UFC to be fair. They cut ties prematurely in my opinion as he is now 5-1 in last 6 fights. Just look at his record.. http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Jake-Shields-502#!
These odds are generous right now at -165 and I'm probably going to play him straight the more I think about this matchup... I'm holding back a bit only because this fight is taking place in Brazil..
(World Series of Fighting 22 - Welterweight 5 rounds - Planet Hollywood Resort & Casino - Las Vegas, Nevada - NBCSN Sat 8/1 3001 Rousimar Palhares +145 o1½ -165 11:00PM 3002 Jake Shields -165 u1½ +145
Last edited by JIBBBY; 07-31-15 at 10:23 PM.
These are the props and nothing jumps out at me.. Was thinking of a potential hedge play with Palharas by sub (leg lock) but no such prop exists at 5d.. No biggie....
Rousimar Palhares vs Jake Shields - Welterweight 5 rounds - WSOF 22 propositions Sat 8/1 3003 Palhares / Shields goes 5 round distance +250 11:00PM 3004 Fight won't go 5 round distance -350 Sat 8/1 3005 Palhares wins inside distance +200 11:00PM 3006 Not Palhares inside distance -280 Sat 8/1 3007 Palhares wins by 5 round decision +575 11:00PM 3008 Not Palhares by 5 round decision -1125 Sat 8/1 3009 Shields wins inside distance +120 11:00PM 3010 Not Shields inside distance -160 Sat 8/1 3011 Shields wins by 5 round decision +335 11:00PM 3012 Not Shields by 5 round decision -505 Sat 8/1 3013 Palhares / Shields draw +14000 11:00PM 3014 Fight not a draw -42000
Last edited by JIBBBY; 07-31-15 at 09:04 PM.
the -400 on Abubakar Nurmagomedov is long gone now, but even at -800, I would still say this is a must add for any fight parlays tonight.
Huge huge mismatch....
Should be a few good fights to watch, particularly the lined ones. This Palhares character looks pretty thick and rugged. Shields taller, not as thick and rugged, and much whiter.
Kyle
Nurmagomedov
Mamedov
for about a 1.85:1 payout
And Nurm in every parlay I can get him into.
Yeah that line jumped.. i got in at -530 the other day with the parlay when I first saw the lines moving like crazy.... Should have jumped on it at -400 when the line first came out.. Didn't think the line would move like that....
Pending8/1/15 11:00pm WSOF Fighting 3301 Abubakar Nurmagomedov -530 vs Jorge Moreno
Last edited by JIBBBY; 08-01-15 at 10:54 AM.
(World Series of Fighting 22 - Welterweight 5 rounds - Planet Hollywood Resort & Casino - Las Vegas, Nevada - NBCSN Sat 8/1 3001 Rousimar Palhares +140 o1½ -165 11:00PM 3002 Jake Shields -160 u1½ +145
-160 now.. Liking this play more and more... Jake on Inside MMA and he seems ready for Palhares... Little bit of bad blood brewing as well... He's been working with Dean Lister leading up in defending the Palhares leg locks..
best play on the card is over 1.5 rds in the main event IMO
Agreed very solid play at only -165.. Good find XX I missed that..
I'll play $165 to win $100 on that 1.5 under all day long.. Gonna hit it now... Thanks for the heads up XX...
Nurm with complete, and I do mean complete domination. That -400 the other day turned into -840 or whatever, was the gift of the night. Could have been -1750
Anyone got a stream for this?
what are these guys waiting for...
wooooooooooooooooooooow Palhares.............................
he held the sub long again
JIBBBY gave Sanity Check 1 Betpoint(s) for this post.
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