1. 06-25-15 03:40 PM #1
    THE_LOCKSMITH
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    UFC Fight Night: Mir vs. Duffee (July 15, 2015)



    FOX Sports 1, 10 p.m. ET
    Todd Duffee vs. Frank Mir
    Al Iaquinta vs. Gilbert Melendez
    Tony Ferguson vs. Josh Thomson
    Holly Holm vs. Marion Reneau
    Kevin Lee vs. James Moontasri
    Matt Dwyer vs. Alan Jouban

    FOX Sports 1, 8 p.m. ET
    Doo Ho Choi vs. Sam Sicilia
    Jessica Andrade vs. Sarah Moras
    Manny Gamburyan vs. Scott Jorgensen
    Masanori Kanehara vs. Rani Yahya

    UFC Fight Pass, 6:30 p.m. ET
    Igor Araujo vs. Sean Strickland
    Ildemar Alcantara vs. Kevin Casey
    Andrew Craig vs. Lyman Good



    Points Awarded:

    Unwritten Law gave THE_LOCKSMITH 6 Betpoint(s) for this post.

    Unwritten Law gave THE_LOCKSMITH 1 Betpoint(s) for this post.

    Unwritten Law gave THE_LOCKSMITH 9 Betpoint(s) for this post.

    PaperTrail07 gave THE_LOCKSMITH 6 Betpoint(s) for this post.

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  2. 06-25-15 03:43 PM #2
    THE_LOCKSMITH
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    this is the 3rd of 4 cards in 7 days

    July 11 UFC 189
    July 12 TUF 21 Finalee
    July 15 Fight Night Mir/Duffee
    July 18 Fight Night Bisping/Leites
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  3. 06-25-15 03:57 PM #3
    Unwritten Law
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    The 619 - Locksmith you get some points! Initial lean on Duffee. He will need to avoid the flying arm or knee bar for sure. Others I like are Kanehara, Ferguson, Strickland and Choi.
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  4. 06-25-15 04:11 PM #4
    UncleChael
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    Quote Originally Posted by THE_LOCKSMITH View Post
    this is the 3rd of 4 cards in 7 days

    July 11 UFC 189
    July 12 TUF 21 Finalee
    July 15 Fight Night Mir/Duffee
    July 18 Fight Night Bisping/Leites
    Best week ever!
    Nomination(s):
    This post was nominated 1 time . To view the nominated thread please click here. People who nominated: PaperTrail07
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  5. 07-10-15 01:23 PM #5
    THE_LOCKSMITH
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    lets not forget about this card on Wednesday, if you want to include some of these fights in some big parlay tickets with Saturday and Sunday nights cards!!!
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  6. 07-10-15 01:29 PM #6
    JAKEPEAVY21
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    Mir looked great last bout..I like him as a doggy here
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  7. 07-10-15 01:36 PM #7
    THE_LOCKSMITH
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    card did take a hit with Gilbert Melendez testing positive
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  8. 07-10-15 01:37 PM #8
    PaperTrail07
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    Training at Gorman Highschool has really got him on point lol....agree w ya though
    Quote Originally Posted by JAKEPEAVY21 View Post
    Mir looked great last bout..I like him as a doggy here
    Nomination(s):
    This post was nominated 1 time . To view the nominated thread please click here. People who nominated: JAKEPEAVY21
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  9. 07-10-15 01:38 PM #9
    PaperTrail07
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    Kevin Casey is a favorite there.......Guy runs out of gas driving a hybrid...Manville Vs Jorg is a Solid Fight
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  10. 07-10-15 03:54 PM #10
    JIBBBY
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    ^^^I really hate betting on Frank Mir but I agree with Jakey and Paper as ya gotta try him as the dog going in against the Duffster.....
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  11. 07-10-15 03:58 PM #11
    the xx
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    I like Sam Sicilia in this spot. Most of the other fights are take it or leave it for me, which means I'll leave it.
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  12. 07-10-15 04:14 PM #12
    Unwritten Law
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    Disappointed no replacement for Melendez. Was interesting for a brief moment since Cowboy offered his services to fight Big Al. Damn!
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  13. 07-12-15 10:54 PM #13
    THE_LOCKSMITH
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    no MMA capping rest, this card is only 66 hrs away!!!
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  14. 07-12-15 10:57 PM #14
    JIBBBY
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    We have a couple days to breathe now, reset restart.. Thank God...
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  15. 07-12-15 11:00 PM #15
    JIBBBY
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    Kinda liking Scott Jorgenson as the dog already just looking over this card.... Scott might match the Judo with his wrestling and probably could evade the big looping bombs of Manny early on..

    Jorgy is more well rounded and has the experience edge.. Jorgy is better then his record indicates IMO... This is a must win for him anyways and possibly a winnable fight..http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Scott-Jorgensen-16852

    Outside chance Manny could blow out a shoulder during the fight as well, maybe even get KO'd late..

    Last edited by JIBBBY; 07-12-15 at 11:31 PM.
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  16. 07-13-15 09:36 AM #16
    nanderson1134
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    Im taking manvel. Scotty is a wrestler who will have no success im thinking.
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  17. 07-13-15 11:00 AM #17
    JIBBBY
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    Quote Originally Posted by nanderson1134 View Post
    Im taking manvel. Scotty is a wrestler who will have no success im thinking.
    Maybe you're right, both these guys are nothing special anymore.. Perhaps I jumped the gun with Scotty.. Manvel does hit very hard and is the stronger guy going in..

    I'm back tracking..
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  18. 07-13-15 11:04 AM #18
    JIBBBY
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    Not any write ups out for this event yet. Probably come in tomorrow... One read on Bleacher report -

    http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2...ight-71-and-72
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  19. 07-13-15 11:43 AM #19
    PaperTrail07
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    Jorg is not what he used to be IMO
    Quote Originally Posted by JIBBBY View Post
    Maybe you're right, both these guys are nothing special anymore.. Perhaps I jumped the gun with Scotty.. Manvel does hit very hard and is the stronger guy going in..

    I'm back tracking..
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  20. 07-13-15 12:12 PM #20
    GunShard
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    Quote Originally Posted by THE_LOCKSMITH View Post
    this is the 3rd of 4 cards in 7 days

    July 11 UFC 189
    July 12 TUF 21 Finalee
    July 15 Fight Night Mir/Duffee
    July 18 Fight Night Bisping/Leites
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  21. 07-13-15 01:03 PM #21
    JIBBBY
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    My initial leans in this 12 teamer below... Could change my mind on a couple of them come fight time.. Like changing the Scotty Jorg pick.... Frank Mir is basically a coin toss IMO also..

    Really keen on Tony Ferg, Holly Holm, Kevin Lee, Kanehara and Alan Jouban for the wins though...

    $6.20 $2,064.90 Pending 12 Team Parlay
    Pending 7/15/15 11:59pm UFC Fighting 1001 Frank Mir +165* vs Todd Duffee
    Pending 7/15/15 11:59pm UFC Fighting 1101 Tony Ferguson -190* vs Josh Thomson
    Pending 7/15/15 11:30pm UFC Fighting 1202 Holly Holm -175* vs Marion Reneau
    Pending 7/15/15 11:00pm UFC Fighting 1301 Scott Jorgensen +130* vs Manvel Gamburyan
    Pending 7/15/15 10:30pm UFC Fighting 1402 Kevin Lee -260* vs James Moontasri
    Pending 7/15/15 10:00pm UFC Fighting 1502 Alan Jouban -420* vs Matt Dwyer
    Pending 7/15/15 9:30pm UFC Fighting 1602 Sam Sicilia -160* vs Yaotzin Meza
    Pending 7/15/15 9:00pm UFC Fighting 1702 Jessica Andrade -320* vs Sarah Moras
    Pending 7/15/15 8:30pm UFC Fighting 1802 Masanori Kanehara -110* vs Rani Yahya
    Pending 7/15/15 8:00pm UFC Fighting 1901 Sean Strickland -330* vs Igor Araujo
    Pending 7/15/15 7:30pm UFC Fighting 2001 Kevin Casey -120* vs Ildemar Alcantara
    Pending 7/15/15 7:00pm UFC Fighting 2102 Lyman Good -270* vs Andrew Craig
    Last edited by JIBBBY; 07-13-15 at 01:16 PM.
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  22. 07-13-15 01:10 PM #22
    JAKEPEAVY21
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    Jibby, Jorgensen is washed up...tread lightly
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  23. 07-13-15 01:10 PM #23
    JAKEPEAVY21
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    Holly Holm looked like dogshit in her debut while Reneau has rattled off 2 impressive wins as a dog...give me Reneau as another live pup
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  24. 07-13-15 01:15 PM #24
    JIBBBY
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    ^ Agreed with Jorgy for the possible fade or a no play now, not so with fading the undefeated Holly Holm.. I'm gonna go watch some more film on Reneau...http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Marion-Reneau-61266

    Holly Holm will have the slight height and reach advantage.. Should be the better striker of the two when standing are my initial thoughts going into this match up anyways... Thinking Holly Holm with a decision win on points probably..

    Last edited by JIBBBY; 07-13-15 at 01:33 PM.
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  25. 07-13-15 01:25 PM #25
    JAKEPEAVY21
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    Quote Originally Posted by JIBBBY View Post
    ^ Agreed with Jorgy for the possible fade or a no play now, not so with fading the undefeated Holly Holm.. I'm gonna go watch some more film on Reneau...http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Marion-Reneau-61266

    Holly Holm will have the slight height and reach advantage.. Should be the better striker of the two when standing are my initial thoughts going into this match up anyways...
    Holm is going to get bitch slapped..literally
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  26. 07-13-15 02:18 PM #26
    the xx
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    looking into smaller plays on Moontasri, Holm, and a very small play on Dwyer
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  27. 07-13-15 02:24 PM #27
    the xx
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    jouban -400+ against anyone is a ridiculous line. unfortunately, dwyer is borderline ufc level.
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  28. 07-13-15 02:26 PM #28
    mirinquads
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    Jouban is really good, but has shown a shaky chin, and Dwyer has a reach advantage. I bet him, but parlaying him with everything is very risky.
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  29. 07-13-15 02:32 PM #29
    the xx
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    I remember watching Jouban and Moontasri on the RFA same card not too long back, thought Jouban got lucky with the decision. Jouban is more marketable than talented. Dwyer too hittable to bank on too much though.
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  30. 07-13-15 03:16 PM #30
    JIBBBY
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    ^^The Canadian Dwyer I suppose has a punchers chance against Jouban with his 8 wins all coming by way of KO, but Jouban has shown to have a solid chin, never KO'd to the head. Those 8 KO wins are all arguably against suspect opponents for the Canadian too.... http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Matt-Dwyer-53933

    I think the logical play is still Jouban as he hits like a truck but those odds are stiff... I probably will look for a KO prop angle or shoot for the under for better value rather then play the straight come fight time...http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Alan-Jouban-65878
    Last edited by JIBBBY; 07-13-15 at 03:35 PM.
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  31. 07-13-15 03:25 PM #31
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    Quote Originally Posted by mirinquads View Post
    Jouban is really good, but has shown a shaky chin, and Dwyer has a reach advantage. I bet him, but parlaying him with everything is very risky.
    When has Jouban shown a shaky chin? He's never been dropped from a head shot... I don't ever recall seeing him out on his feet either or rocked severly in his fights? Maybe I missed something?

    I do remember seeing Jouban lay down the wood on these clowns below though -



    Took some hard shots from Seth and then dropped him like a bad habit in this gif below....

    Last edited by JIBBBY; 07-13-15 at 03:32 PM.
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  32. 07-13-15 03:29 PM #32
    mirinquads
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    Quote Originally Posted by JIBBBY View Post
    When has Jouban shown a shaky chin? He's never been dropped from a head shot... I don't ever recall seeing him out his feet either or rocked severly in his fights either? Maybe I missed something?
    Good old Jibbby is back.

    He got rocked BADLY by Seth P. of all people. Alves had him wobbled as well. Not sure if Walsh did, don't think so.

    Pro tip: Watch the whole fight instead of the highlight.
    Last edited by mirinquads; 07-13-15 at 03:34 PM.
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  33. 07-13-15 03:41 PM #33
    JIBBBY
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    Quote Originally Posted by mirinquads View Post
    Good old Jibbby is back.

    He got rocked BADLY by Seth P. of all people. Alves had him wobbled as well. Not sure if Walsh did, don't think so.

    Pro tip: Watch the whole fight instead of the highlight.
    Ok I will.. I just don't remember seeing him rocked by Seth.. Alves hits hard and I forgot that fight in memory.. I'll check thanks..
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  34. 07-13-15 03:48 PM #34
    mirinquads
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    Damn that left elbow he sneaks in and rocks Walsh with was slick though. Boy got some tricks.
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  35. 07-13-15 03:58 PM #35
    JIBBBY
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    Rani Yahya record - http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Rani-Yahya-10425

    Does anyone other then me think Roni Yahya kinda sucks? One trick pony on the ground. He has 0 punching power and his stand up is still way below UFC standards. 0 ko's in 28 fights... This is the last guy Roni beat.. Total can..http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Johnny-Bedford-19717

    Liking the Asian Kanahari in this one as he has a ground game and some slick striking. He did out class Bruce Leroy in his UFC debut. Looked good enough to beat Rani anyways IMO.. Most of his losses have come by way of Ko and not by submission.. With that being said Rani Yahya can't Ko anyone if his life depended on it....http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Masanori-Kanehara-13767

    If Rani can't get Kanahari to the ground in every round I think he loses this fight...




    Rani is a leach on the ground though if he can get it there.....

    Last edited by JIBBBY; 07-13-15 at 04:16 PM.
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