[phelios]

How did you score that Pennington fight? I had Pennington winning it. Everybody beats Rosi Sexton. Pacheco was a short notice fight against a 19 year old

[JIBBBY]

How did you score that Pennington fight? I had Pennington winning it. Everybody beats Rosi Sexton. Pacheco was a short notice fight against a 19 year old

Pennington fight was a hard fight to score but I don't think Pennington got robbed.. It could have gone either way if my memory serves me correctly..

Going into this one - I can see Jessica Andrade really turning up her game in her home Country now that she has experience at the top level with 15 pro fights under her... Can the 37 year old Marion with only 6 fights (suspect opponents) go into Brazil and win? I don't think so..

[JIBBBY]

Solid picks I believe are Alcantara and Khabilov after capping these fights.. Both over +300 favorites unfortunately... Got parlay?

Too much experience and too hard to finish is Alcantara http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Iuri-Alcantara-16129 The only problem I see in this fight maybe is that Alcantara is fighting a guy with a pretty good wrestling base and in the past Alcantara does like to spend time on his back. Alcantara's take down defense is not that good.. Still, being that this fight is in Brazil the judges will still probably score higher for sub attempts off the back..

Tiger should rebound from the Bendo loss. He's the better fighter simply put.. http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Rustam-Khabilov-45417

[phelios]

Pennington fight was a hard fight to score but I don't think Pennington got robbed.. It could have gone either way if my memory serves me correctly.. Going into this one - I can see Jessica Andrade really turning up her game in her home Country now that she has experience at the top level with 15 pro fights under her... Can the 37 year old Marion with only 6 fights (suspect opponents) go into Brazil and win? I don't think so..

Dont get hung up on age. Marion still is new to MMA so doesnt have all that MMA damage on her body. Andrade was -250 against Pennington. Do you think that line was accurate before the fight? I think we are in a similar situation here. I actually think Marion is better than Pennington.

[JIBBBY]

Moving on from the girl fight... We'll see what happens!!!!

Trying to find the best play for the Dwyer/Macario scrap.. I was capping this fight today and really not sure who will win it but I'm pretty sure it's not gonna go for a long time... Reason being -

Between them both only one time did either fighter go to decision.. The guy that went to a decision win was Macario..(Voelker is hard too finish by the way with the distance fight win) Being that this fight is in Brazil and he is a Brazilian fighter one would think Macario should go after it.. http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/William-Macario-69624

We know Matt Dwyer will go after the KO early and often.. http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Matt-Dwyer-53933

That being said I was thinking the under round bet might be the good play??

UFC Fight Night 61 - Welterweight 3 rounds - Gunasio Gigantinho - Porto Alegre, Brazil - FS1
Sun 2/22		1701 Matt Dwyer		+240	o1½ -120
7:00PM		1702 William Macario		-280	u1½ -110

Safe play prop for this you gotta pay to play though (could be worth a parlay try) -

Matt Dwyer vs William Macario - Welterweight 3 rounds - UFC Fight Night 61 propositions Sun 2/22 1703 Dwyer / Macario goes 3 round distance +240 7:00PM 1704 Fight won't go 3 round distance -320

[phelios]

YEah the u1.5 looks good. The under looks really good this card. a lot of finishes with these cans.

[phelios]

Like this one too Jibby

[JIBBBY]

YEah the u1.5 looks good. The under looks really good this card. a lot of finishes with these cans.

What other fights do you think won't go the distance? I'm still thinking the Mir/Silva fight might go over the round and half..

[JIBBBY]

Like this one too Jibby

Ferreiri has gone to decision in recent fights..http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Cezar-Ferreira-22400

Sam Alvey is reasonably durable and doesn't have real KO power himself..

Good luck with this one, at +106 the value is decent though..... I'm thinking Ferreira wins this fight by decision myself...

[phelios]

Ive seen Waldburger die in the ring a few times. I have nothing bet on that main event. Wait and see how slow bigfoot looks at open workouts

[phelios]

Ferreiri has gone to decision in recent fights..http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Cezar-Ferreira-22400

Sam Alvey is reasonably durable and doesn't have real KO power himself..

Good luck with this one, at +106 the value is decent though..... I'm thinking Ferreira wins this fight by decision myself...

Thinking about a big Ferreiri bet myself. Waiting till weigh ins

[JIBBBY]

Ive seen Waldburger die in the ring a few times. I have nothing bet on that main event. Wait and see how slow bigfoot looks at open workouts

Open talk about this fight not going the distance from just about every major source.. I think I remember the prop - the fight won't go the distance bet is at -400 or something when I looked at it earlier today..

Your under round bet at -120 is probably a smart play... Good luck...

[Hollafront]

I worry about Alcantara's takedown defense. He could be lay and prayed to a decision.

[UncleChael]

SBR ... For the Main event we're gonna take FRANK MIR @+245! GL US AND LETS GET IT 2 days. Tomorrow is the weigh in.

[phelios]

some reason the market hates Marion.


I am loading up

[JIBBBY]

SBR ... For the Main event we're gonna take FRANK MIR @+245! GL US AND LETS GET IT 2 days. Tomorrow is the weigh in.

I hope you're right Unc and this fight doesn't turn out like another Thatch bet... All indicators point to Mir winning just like Thatch.. I still have a bad taste in my mouth with that main event loss in the last UFC event!!!

[JIBBBY]

I hope you're right Unc and this fight doesn't turn out like another Thatch bet... All indicators point to Mir winning just like Thatch.. I still have a bad taste in my mouth with that main event loss in the last UFC event!!!

I'm personally looking to rebound strong in this Event anyways...

[fitguy67]

unexciting (from the perspective of John Q Public's expectation to be entertained) cards like this are often the breeding ground for relatively dog-rich results...

I picked out three that i give a decent enough shot to go 2-1 to make this "Trixie" (3 doubles and a treble) a go

J=Johnson+130
A=Alvey+260
M=Martins+360

risk 0.25u on each of the following parlays...or just use the "round robin" facility of your book to do in one shot
J*A +728
J*M +957
A*M +1556
J*A*M +3709

so, if 0 or 1 of them hit, net result is -1u
if J,A hit, net result is +1.07u
if J,M hit, net result is +1.64u
if A,M hit, net result is +3.14u
if all 3 hit, net result is +17.38u

i consider this a 1u cover-charge ticket to watch the event...
which includes a draw for 4 prizes (of 1x, 1.5x, 3x, and 17x ticket value)...

______________

as for faves...at first glance, strickland-165, is at a good price now...
appreciate any insight into this fight, as i'm definitely not ready to pull the trigger (and am even open to be persuaded to back ponzy if anyone makes a convincing case)

[phelios]

j/k fitguy. I hope Rustam gets smashed he poured water on some poor girl

[PaperTrail07]

A very bad taste

I hope you're right Unc and this fight doesn't turn out like another Thatch bet... All indicators point to Mir winning just like Thatch.. I still have a bad taste in my mouth with that main event loss in the last UFC event!!!

[JIBBBY]

alot of people pm'ing about the other forum. I cant respond because I dont have 40 posts. The other forum sucks. mods trigger happy to warn and edit posts if they dont like you or your style of posting. So basically nothing different than any other shitty mma forum. No freedom of speech and people will snitch on you in a heart beat. http://oddsb.com/forum/index.php there it is. F-ck that forum and everyone associated with it.

Lol... Welcome back Sider.....

[UncleChael]

I hope you're right Unc and this fight doesn't turn out like another Thatch bet... All indicators point to Mir winning just like Thatch.. I still have a bad taste in my mouth with that main event loss in the last UFC event!!!

I have a bad taste in my mouth from Anthony Johnson .. Dude owes be that Light Heavyweight Belt.

[Karmaphobia]

unexciting (from the perspective of John Q Public's expectation to be entertained) cards like this are often the breeding ground for relatively dog-rich results...

I picked out three that i give a decent enough shot to go 2-1 to make this "Trixie" (3 doubles and a treble) a go

J=Johnson+130
A=Alvey+260
M=Martins+360

risk 0.25u on each of the following parlays...or just use the "round robin" facility of your book to do in one shot
J*A +728
J*M +957
A*M +1556
J*A*M +3709

so, if 0 or 1 of them hit, net result is -1u
if J,A hit, net result is +1.07u
if J,M hit, net result is +1.64u
if A,M hit, net result is +3.14u
if all 3 hit, net result is +17.38u

i consider this a 1u cover-charge ticket to watch the event...
which includes a draw for 4 prizes (of 1x, 1.5x, 3x, and 17x ticket value)...

______________

as for faves...at first glance, strickland-165, is at a good price now...
appreciate any insight into this fight, as i'm definitely not ready to pull the trigger (and am even open to be persuaded to back ponzy if anyone makes a convincing case)

I'm a big fan of the round-robin (by two's) strategy for betting the dogs as well. Good luck.

[JIBBBY]

Finalizing this Dwyer/Macario fight - Along with liking the under bet in this one I also am liking Macario to get the KO win early..

1733 Macario wins by TKO/KO

-120

Reason being - Dwyer gets rocked unbelievably easy. I don’t think he has a bad chin, I just think that he has no idea how to block or evade strikes properly. Macario has great boxing and he even hurt Magny in his last fight, who is super tough and has great striking defense. Being Macario is fighting in Brazil he should get the KO early on Dwyer simply put.. I'd be surprised if he doesn't..

[JIBBBY]

Thinking over this fight I decided to roll with Douglas Silva as a dog play.. http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Dougl...-Andrade-87981

Just thinking this Brazilian is 22-1 and can't be that bad.. Last fight went to a decision loss.. He's gonna rebound strong in his home Country.. Cody Gibson is a good fighter but I can see him getting beat down in this one simply put.. Had to jump on this at +215..

2001 Douglas Silva de Andrade

+215

[shabang]

What other fights do you think won't go the distance? I'm still thinking the Mir/Silva fight might go over the round and half..

I'd say 60% it goes over 40% it does not...both have ko power and mir by sub is a possibility as well. Really really tough fight to call. Both have everything to lose.

I believe this is the first time ever that there has been a main event where both fighters are 0-3 vs 0-4 .. they both are on a huge declince at this point in their careers so a win for either is needed.. really hard to back mir here since he hasn't had a win in how many years? GEEZ... (all top talent granted, but still) He hasn't looked good in a while.

On that note, I have a feeling it's going over. both will be fairly cautious and they will most likely be fired from the promotion if they lose. Over is the bet.

Might lay something small on mir ko round 1 +750

[fitguy67]

alot of people pm'ing about the other forum. I cant respond because I dont have 40 posts. The other forum sucks. mods trigger happy to warn and edit posts if they dont like you or your style of posting. So basically nothing different than any other shitty mma forum. No freedom of speech and people will snitch on you in a heart beat. http://oddsb.com/forum/index.php there it is. F-ck that forum and everyone associated with it.

too bad for what nunya, md and all the white-label md's have done...so damn sure that the new frontier they were headed for would be a utopian world of non-stop uber-hip profiteering...
but they were so arrogant and rude on their way out...pissing in as many swimming pools as possible as they gloated and goaded...

good to see the chickens have come home to roost at "weallpretendtolikethesamemovies.com"

but they ain't gonna be welcomed back here with open arms by all the peeps who've tolerated their gang-slagging antics in the past...
they'll wish they hadn't been such pretentiously-rude fukks on the way out...cuz many of us have gotten used to standing up for ourselves now...and have come to appreciate NOT having MD's twatty auto-squelch ruining every discussion with pedantic distinctions...to the sneering support of his clones

...too bad the "brave new circle-jerk" isn't panning out...cuz there'll be anything but open arms awaiting when boredom and bickering "over there" drive the ascended ones back "here"...full of people they've always PRETENDED to be better than

[fitguy67]

What other fights do you think won't go the distance? I'm still thinking the Mir/Silva fight might go over the round and half..

I just took the
*over 1.5rounds, -123 (pinnacle), and
*Mir, SUB, now at +600

shabang is basically spot on!
i expect the first round to be wasted with a lot of tentative distance-measuring...possibly even the first 2 rounds...accompanied by lots of boos, of course...
both of 'em know their chins are shot...and simply won't want to go out by getting ko'd EARLY...so we could get an impromptu "make it look like we're fighting" dance (a la rashad v. nog)...

once the first two rounds are wasted...then they'll treat it like the final 3-round fight of their career (that it should be)

this has all the makings of one of the worst main-events ever! hopefully, it turns into a barn-burner somehow...but i can't picture it...

once they actually start fighting it'll end either with a bigfoot KO or a Mir sub...only other possibility is the worst 25-minutes of main event ever suffered through...picture NOT Hunt vs. Bigfoot..NOT on steroids!!!

[JIBBBY]

Fitguy it's only a matter of time before all the regs posting on the other forum get banned and come back here under different accounts.. V is already pushing the limits with his posts.. The mods over there seem to not wanna tolerate much tomfoolery and basically only want to discuss MMA betting first.. I actually like and appreciate that but I'm loyal to this forum..

I've been reading in and it's too bad Edegenerate didn't post as much over here as he does now over there.. That I will never understand?? Marz takes info from my posts over here and posts over there.. Kinda funny... All good though..

Back to topic... This is what I got for those bets Fitguy on 5Dimes.. You got me with that +600 on the Mir Sub.. Good job!!!

2/18/15 2:10am

Pending

2/22/15 10:30pm UFC Fighting 1001 Antonio Silva/Frank Mir Over 1½ -115*

2/17/15 11:31pm

$20.00

$96.00

Pending

2/22/15 10:30pm Props Fighting 1039 Mir wins by submission +480* vs Any other result

[imadegen]

Had to lay down some money on Mir with those odds. Mir is a superior athlete and he's badly in need of a win.

Michael Johnson and barboza is a great matchup, very much looking forward to that one.

[fitguy67]

Mir SUB still +600 at dimey...(oh, i see you bought your ticket really early...) i decided to hit it after reading uncle chael and you backnforthing on the fight...precisely the sorts of "pedestrian" interaction that MD used to do his best to squelch...

and it was shabang and you talking about the over that got me hot on that over 1.5r...he's right...hard to imagine any urgency from either side with 25 mins to "fill up"...

we'll see what happens...with "as the forum turns" drama...and the dreadful upcoming fn61 card...
___________

also, like your Douglas Silva +215 over CodyGibson dog-find...

any thoughts on Strickland...the one fave that really looks worth the price at a measly -165

[fitguy67]

Michael Johnson and barboza is a great matchup, very much looking forward to that one.

agree. in fact, i'm thinkin' the best way to play barboza/johnson is as FOTN (if it lasts a while) and/or a fastest KO prop (johnson hits a hell of a lot harder than cowboy's jab that took Barbo out early)...it's the only one on the main card that at first glance is even worthy of PPV-consideration...anyhow, worth a
look into a stab if the payout high enough

[JIBBBY]

^^It's hard to imagine this Mir/Bigfoot fight hitting the ground, but if Frank can rock and or shoot in and get top and or tea bag position he's very good at snapping those Brazilian fighters arms. Lol..

It's a long shot that's why I only laid down a 20 spot on that sub prop.. Like Shabang said probably the KO play is just as good and or a better prop bet...

[fitguy67]

normally i'd say Mir, T/KO ticket is a donation...but not necessarily against this low-testosterone giant...

full-testosterone Bigfoot vs. Hunt had a chin of granite...depleted-testosterone, grey-haired version that fought Arlovski a few months later had chin of crystal

imadegen is right...of the two shot specimens in the cage on Sunday, Mir will be the better athelete, with the better agility...hopefully can use it to avoid getting clocked by the plodding giant and connect on something himself...

what an uninspiring shit fight...only thing worse i could imagine would be a Dan Kelly v. Patrick Walsh rematch scheduled as a 5-rounder

[UncleChael]

-250/Cody Gibson, -180 Sean Strickland Parlay!!!