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UFC Fight Night: Nelson vs. Story (October 04, 2014)
UFC Fight Pass, 3 p.m. ET
Gunnar Nelson vs. Rick Story
Akira Corassani vs. Max Holloway
Jan Blachowicz vs. Ilir Latifi
Niklas Backstrom vs. Mike Wilkinson
UFC Fight Pass, 12:10 p.m. ET
Scott Askham vs. Magnus Cedenblad
Nico Musoke vs. Alexander Yakovlev
Dennis Siver vs. Robert Whiteford
Cathal Pendred vs. Gasan Umalatov
Krzysztof Jotko vs. Tor Troeng
Marcin Bandel vs. Mairbek Taisumov
Ernest Chavez vs. Zubaira Tukhugov
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full odds out for this card way in advance, I'm guessing because the event is sponsored by a sportsbook
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Gunnar Nelson yeah that's bro.
what yall didn't know though is that Gunnar's norepinephrine/noradrenaline neurotransmitter isn't even from this planet.
These celestial type neurotransmitters some of you just don't have it inside yourself to spot em .
With that being said I already jumped on a couple of props early on too.. 25 bucks each.. Small stuff..Originally Posted by THE_LOCKSMITH
full odds out for this card way in advance, I'm guessing because the event is sponsored by a sportsbook
1305 - Wilkerson wins inside the distance +680
1205 - Blachowicz wins inside the distance +620
Doubt black owing finishes latifi. Latifi is very hard to submit and he has a great chin.
Spell auto correct on my cell is responsible for the above missspelling.
I agree but my goal with those 2 prop bets is that maybe one lands.. These are big guys that hit hard at 205.. Latifi was stopped by Tyasuya Mizuna with strikes a few years back..
Horrible Wilkinson prop as well. What about Story by submission, Jibby?
Just playing around small with all the props with the big odds.. Story by sub is really reaching but at +1650 that's nuts..... Taking Story winning inside the distance at +530 is a little safer play I think....
Hahhaha
How about you just parlay Gunny since we all know hes gonna win?
Really more back up insurance bets as I will be picking on the other fighters straight or in large parlays..
There is some reasoning behind my madness with these prop plays...
Last edited by JIBBBY; 09-28-14 at 03:52 PM.
The Swedish Mixed Martial Arts Federation ruled that Lapilus, fighting out of Paris France, was not a suitable opponent for Siver.
http://www.yourmma.tv/news/details.a...eplacement.htm
yep
Cracking Saturday's puzzle with this card first!!!http://www.ufc.com/event/ufc-fight-n...ockholm#/fight
Taking all the favorites on this main card.. Wish I could find a dog to play but I just can't see any of the dogs winning after capping the 4 fights..
Gunnar Nelson
Latifi
Backstrom
Max Holloway
Gonna roll the dice on a 3 teamer with Gunnar Nelson -335, Backstrom -550, and Max Holloway -600... (1.5 units placed) Those 3 are very strong plays that should all cash..
Latifi i may play straight or add to another parlay 2 team link up as I continue to cap the prelims.. Haven't decided yet on this play????.. Just sharing as I go...
Last edited by JIBBBY; 09-29-14 at 01:43 PM.
Good write up on the fights..http://combatpress.com/2014/09/toe-t...d-predictions/
Gotta roll with -140 - Cathal Pendred 14-2.....http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Cathal-Pendred-64373
The dude trains with the likes of Conor McGregor and what not.. 8 fight win streak... Worked over Mike King in his UFC debut... Should be able to take out this Ruskie in Gasan Umal.. http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Gasan-Umalatov-5310915-3 who has a big win over Paulo Thiago (whoopie)... 2-2 in his last 4... He himself got worked over by Neil Magny in a decision loss... Respectable loss but not impressive..
Also going with the dog +110 in K. Jotko 14-1.. http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Krzysztof-Jotko-53380 This POL. is coming off his first loss and is 1-1 in the UFC.. The Swed. in Tor Troeng at 16-6 is a tough dude but on a 2 fight losing streak now.. Gonna go with the kid in this one....
Tis a beautiful ting... Oh those Irish peps.. LOL..
Last edited by JIBBBY; 09-29-14 at 11:05 PM.
jibs, thanks for the last few link-heavy posts...
that combatpress link is good...helped fill in the gaps on my "just how good is this backstorm kid" (both absolutely and relative to his opponent)conundrum...now i'm quite comfy giving him official SPF (solid parlay fodder) status this weekend
__________
skill rules (but size matters)...imagine alvarez joining the featherweight mix...
Last edited by fitguy67; 09-29-14 at 11:46 PM.
No prob.. Just trying to iron out this card early on in the week this go around so I can jump to the other....... Backstrom is solid.. Odds reflect that too...
Last edited by JIBBBY; 09-29-14 at 11:53 PM.
My only bet on this card so far is Wilkinson/Backstrom Under 1½ at +105. I'll be looking for a Backstrom first round sub.
Probably a good play Jimmy, may tail ya on that under....
Going with the over 2 1/2 rounds bet myself - 170 Alexander Yakovlev/Nickolas Musoke... Looking to parlay that up with Latifi straight in a 2 teamer....
Last edited by JIBBBY; 10-01-14 at 04:17 AM.
Musoke -205 All DAy Errrrr Day
Rounding off this card now... My final 2 picks for the card and why, if anyone cares to read in....
Tukhugov (16-3) at -230... http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Zubaira-Tukhugov-63813... This Russian has the better striking and far more MMA experience under his belt.. He's also faced stiffer comp in the past then the guy he is facing in Earnest Chavez.. No brainer for me....http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Ernest-Chavez-80837
Looking at this final fight to cap... Bandel (13-2) vs Taisumov (21-5)... This Pol in Marcin Bandel appears to be a sub machine when he locks on to an ankle....http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Marcin-Bandel-55705... One has to question though the level of comp he's faced to date in all those sub wins.. This Russian in Taisumov hasn't been sub'd out since 2008.. Gotta like the veteran Russian in this fight as he is more well rounded and brings a lot more experience into the cage.. http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Mairbek-Taisumov-33161
Going with the Russian Taisumov at -190 in this one anyways....
GOOD LUCK EVERYONE... Moving on to the next event now...
Last edited by JIBBBY; 09-30-14 at 01:54 PM.
Im on tukhugov as well, but that chavez dude is scrappy and effective. He isnt ufc caliber, yet, i believe he may be able to make it ugly. He shouldnt but he probably does. Im unsure of this bet
Chavez is gonna get wrecked in this fight.. I feel very confident with this pick. Tukhugov is on another level I believe.. Should cash BJ don't sweat it.....
So was silverino...but how how much this did "another level" translate before the third round? Watch out mark my word, upsets do happen even though they shouldnt.
Watch footage on Chavez then watch this vid below BJ.. I'm sold anyways after capping this fight yesterday.. Like I said it should cash... Paying a heavy price at -230 but I honestly think those odds should be doubled... If there is value in a favorite this fight screams it...
Last edited by JIBBBY; 09-30-14 at 06:25 PM.
I also like the under 2½ rounds on the main event Nelson vs Story at +105. Most likely Nelson is going to submit an aggressive Story in round 1 or 2 the first time he makes a mistake.
Musoke left his usual camp for this fight I wouldn't be betting himMusoke -205 All DAy Errrrr Day
Could be onto something but Rick Horror Story in recent years has only been sub'd out by Damian Maia.. (world class) http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Rick-Story-25989 Fought the best of the best too... Even beat Johny Hendricks but that was back in 2010..
Rick Story fights so stiff but he is tough to finish and can bang standing.. I wanted to try to bet on Rick Story in this one but I just couldn't.. Gunnar hasn't fought anyone really great yet in the UFC but he looks solid and represented hard in grappling tourney's in the past for sure..... He remains undefeated too...http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Gunnar-Nelson-25246
When first capping this fight I watched this fight vid on Nelson and heard the real hype that the announcers said.. All there in this vid below.. Turn up the volume and Listen!!!
I've decided to start betting on all these Irish dudes training at SBG... I gotta be honest as I'm a little nervous with this play though if it stays standing... Money is down on Nelson regardless... The dude trained with BJ Penn and Henso Gracie which wasn't mentioned by the way in the vid below....
Last edited by JIBBBY; 10-01-14 at 03:44 AM.
The over 2.5 seems more likely, and it would also cover the best chance Story has to win: Nelson is methodical, and gets into his rhythm without much urgency. He's better standing and on the ground, but his takedowns aren't the greatest and Story's TDD is strong, so Story may be able to at dictate where the fight goes, at least in the early rounds. He's definitely not going to want the fight to go to the ground, so he'll going to be ultra-careful not to be too aggressive and expose himself.
One man is patient, the other is careful, and they're both pacing themselves for 5 rounds. I think that Nelson should finish, but it feels risky betting on when...
JIBBBY gave THE_LOCKSMITH 1 Betpoint(s) for this post.
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