[TheCalculator]

I finally decided to have my own thread. Why not? I fully expect for Nunya Bidness to come tell me how wrong I am every once in a while. Still love the guy. And I expect many of you to come attack my point of view. I've been on the Internet and on way too long and owned too many forums to get fazed by any of it. You can say whatever you want and very little fawks will be given.


For those of you that don't know me. My background is in the training world. On a lot of different levels. I've also trained fighting for a very very long time. Started training with UFC 1 in NHB. Have trained thousands of people in the real world including pro athletes. My understanding of physiology in all its facets is world-class. I've been making a living in this world for a long time.


Let’s start this thread with UFC 171 weigh ins.


I use the weigh ins to adjust my opinions from 1% to 3% up or down.


I don't think I have ever seen this rough weight cuts in one day.


We'll start with Daniel Pineda. The guy is sick. Looked like the flu. He was sniffling when he got in the scales. I could see in his eyes that he didn't feel well. I still think he will win the fight. Robert Whiteford’s fight IQ is just too low.


Next Jim Hettes. The guy looks like he smokes way too much weed. He looks very soft. Looked out of it. The guy definitely hits the bong a little too strong.


Pennington not necessarily a bad weight cut. However she looked worried and demotivated.


Rick Story definitely had a rough week up. Look super slow and lethargic. That being said Kevin Gastalum’s weight cut looked even rougher. The guy looked like he had just come back from hell and has to go even deeper to make the cut. Kind of evens out here. Rick Story is going to gas tomorrow after round 1. I think Kevin has a higher VO2 baseline but it’s hard to say how much the cut is taking out of him and more importantly — can he rehydrate in time?


Jake Shields look like he just came out of a 12 month outer space trip. He looked like shit. By contrast Lombard look energetic and Jack to the max. I was big on Jake Shields before the way in. This has certainly shaked my confidence.


Finally Hendricks looked shaken from the weight cut challenges. It's never a good sign. And Lawler looked happy and relaxed. I still think Johny Hendricks wins tomorrow night.

[Unwritten Law]

Hendricks didn't look at all to begin with the shaking and he had to lose an additional 1.5 pounds. Hope Lawler punishes him for not initially making weight.

[TheCalculator]

Most "sure fire bets" IMO for this card:

Scoggins -- the line moved a lot today and squeezed out a lot of the value. I capped him around -700 or so. Only way I see him losing is a freak injury.

Bermudez -- line should be closer to -300 to -350 Only hope Hettes has is taking Bermudez down and getting a sub. I think Bermudez stops the takedowns.

Andrade -- she should dismantle Pennington. Pennington's ONLY edge here is her reach.

BEST VALUE PLAYS:

Bubba -- don't get the line here. I think he should be the favorite. Strickland isn't that good. And the guy had a meltdown at the weigh ins when he saw the crowd. UFC jitters gonna make it harder for him.

Krylov at +400? YES! I think he would win 30-35% of the time here. OSP has horrible cardio. And Krylov could win by: sub, KTO or even DEC.

Got a LOT of other plays as well but those are the main ones.

ENJOY!

[NunyaBidness]

I think I saw a lot of the same stuff as you, but I don't have your background.

What are you basing Kelvins VO2max on? Prior fights, or are you saying there's something about his physical appearance that clues you into that?

How does softness correlate to weed smoking? Isn't it possible he's just lazy or not that fit? Seems like you're pulling it out of thin air.

I thought Shields looked like shit too, but then I decided it was just that he didn't shave his body for this one. You've got maybe 60 seconds to judge someone on the scale, and one little thing here or there can sway you a lot. I know I'm guilty of it myself.

[NunyaBidness]

Bubba -- don't get the line here. I think he should be the favorite. Strickland isn't that good. And the guy had a meltdown at the weigh ins when he saw the crowd. UFC jitters gonna make it harder for him.

Some guys thrive under pressure though.

I could easily see someone say, Strickland looked super excited to be there, he's got the fire! Or whatever. These sorts of intangibles I think are easy to see what you want.

Strickland isn't very good, in fact Bubba's probably got the standup advantage for the first and only time. Strickland has a strong takedown game though, and bubba is so content to sit on his back.

[TheCalculator]

All my comments below in bold.

I think I saw a lot of the same stuff as you, but I don't have your background.

What are you basing Kelvins VO2max on? Prior fights, or are you saying there's something about his physical appearance that clues you into that?

Their previous fights is part of it. I have other data that I can't share. From what I can gather Kevin's VO2 is about 20% higher than Story.

How does softness correlate to weed smoking? Isn't it possible he's just lazy or not that fit? Seems like you're pulling it out of thin air.

THC increases estrogen which leads to a "soft physique". Circle under the eyes are another big sign. I would bet 50% of my bankroll that Hettes smokes weed.

I thought Shields looked like shit too, but then I decided it was just that he didn't shave his body for this one. You've got maybe 60 seconds to judge someone on the scale, and one little thing here or there can sway you a lot. I know I'm guilty of it myself.

Yes -- I still think he's the right play. But he was in SERIOUS pain. BUT... Hopefully he rehydrated. The rehydration is the big thing.

[NunyaBidness]

Thanks for the info.

Making a bet that a guy in his 20s who doesn't have a serious job smokes weed is pretty safe, IMO.

Mind if I bug you after this card with some nutrition questions?

[TheCalculator]

There's a relatively well known correlation between skill and pressure in the athletics world. The higher the skill level... the more pressure helps them perform. The inverse is usually true as well. Don't think Strickland has the skills to fall in that category.

Some guys thrive under pressure though.

I could easily see someone say, Strickland looked super excited to be there, he's got the fire! Or whatever. These sorts of intangibles I think are easy to see what you want.

Strickland isn't very good, in fact Bubba's probably got the standup advantage for the first and only time. Strickland has a strong takedown game though, and bubba is so content to sit on his back.

[NunyaBidness]

There's a relatively well known correlation between skill and pressure in the athletics world. The higher the skill level... the more pressure helps them perform. The inverse is usually true as well. Don't think Strickland has the skills to fall in that category.

That's interesting. Any links to papers on this?

[TheCalculator]

That's interesting. Any links to papers on this?

It was some of my Univ. text books and was thought in a "nervous system" class. Left those behind 17 years ago. lol
Don't have any links handy. I'm sure you could find it with some googling.

Sure -- message me any time about the nutri. info.

[TheCalculator]

Here's a bold prediction that I'm going to put my money in:
I'm 90% sure that Scoggins wins EVERY FIGHT until he fights Dodson and/or Mighty Mouse. TOP 3 ALREADY.

BTW -- I made that prediction with Gustaffsson a couple of years before he fought Jones and was dead on.

[NunyaBidness]

I'll take +900 on the other side of that.

[TheCalculator]

Another big value play I forgot to mention is: Spencer

If Garcia doesn't KO him in the 1st round (which I would say happens 20% of the time) -- I think Spencer would win the fight 45% of the time. Which means I think he would win 36% of the time give or take a point or two.

[MD]

^ Not Garcia KO, boys. Been pounding it all week, was a gift at near-PK.

[Joe05ca]

U sure know wat ur talkin about unlike 95 percent of people here. Will look forward to hear from u bro

[TheCalculator]

U sure know wat ur talkin about unlike 95 percent of people here. Will look forward to hear from u bro

Thanks. -- I will be wrong at times and I always try to learn and adjust from those mistakes. Unlike many muppets, I don't think I'm the greatest MMA capper of all times. That being said I do believe I am pretty good and my betting record reflects this.

[BIGDAY]

Best of luck with the rest of the card pal.

[TheCalculator]

My 3 "sure fire" bets cashed.

None of my value bets cashed. Retro-analysis: only Spencer had value.

[TheCalculator]

Some early analysis on the Steven versus Rony Jason fight.

At first I thought I was going to pound the line for Rony into oblivion.

I looked at my ratings (Yes I have a 25 attribute score for each fighter). And I saw that Rony Jason has a horrible cardio. And Steven has cardio for five rounds.


Rony has better skills no doubt about it. However into the second and third round those skills will fade. And Steven will have an advantage possibly. Steven grinding capability is nothing short of phenomenal. He's one of those medium skill level fighters that makes up for it with tremendous willpower. Remember fighting is skills plus will.


I do think one Rony is going to win and a part of me wants to hit that line with 20 units. But after watching more footage I'm going to pass. I actually might bet Steven by decision.

[Wilbo86]

Have you got any thoughts on Santos-Parke?

I just got Parke at +188, i see the fight as at least a 50-50, Parke potentially deserves to be the favourite. While i don't have 25 attributes, what i do look at points me to a lean on Parke.

I see santos submitting parke in the first maybe 20% of the time, otherwise parke wins it. Any thoughts?

[Wilbo86]

Just had a look at best fight odds, looks like it might be a line error given he's a favourite everywhere in America. Here's to hoping it doesn't get refunded.

[TheCalculator]

For sure it is a line error hopefully they won't refund. I don't have any opinions on that fight at the moment.

[Ron_Paul_2012]

Some early analysis on the Steven versus Rony Jason fight.

At first I thought I was going to pound the line for Rony into oblivion.

I looked at my ratings (Yes I have a 25 attribute score for each fighter). And I saw that Rony Jason has a horrible cardio. And Steven has cardio for five rounds.


Rony has better skills no doubt about it. However into the second and third round those skills will fade. And Steven will have an advantage possibly. Steven grinding capability is nothing short of phenomenal. He's one of those medium skill level fighters that makes up for it with tremendous willpower. Remember fighting is skills plus will.


I do think one Rony is going to win and a part of me wants to hit that line with 20 units. But after watching more footage I'm going to pass. I actually might bet Steven by decision.

I have a 2 unit play on Siler straight @ +150. I believe there is value in Parke @ -200 or better. 2 units on Parke vs Santos Over 2.5 @ -200. 10 units on Brandao straight @ -320. 33 units Markes straight @ -590. 3.75 units Ferriera vs Dollaway Over 1.5 @ -185. 7.3 units Taisamov straight @ -265. 10.3 units Ferriera straight @ -210. Other 1 & 2 unit plays as well. Mostly Overs. Good Luck All!

[Vaughany]

I have a 2 unit play on Siler straight @ +150. I believe there is value in Parke @ -200 or better. 2 units on Parke vs Santos Over 2.5 @ -200. 10 units on Brandao straight @ -320. 33 units Markes straight @ -590. 3.75 units Ferriera vs Dollaway Over 1.5 @ -185. 7.3 units Taisamov straight @ -265. 10.3 units Ferriera straight @ -210. Other 1 & 2 unit plays as well. Mostly Overs. Good Luck All!

Not enough chalk brah, ur slippin

[fitguy67]

I have a 2 unit play on Siler straight @ +150. I believe there is value in Parke @ -200 or better. 2 units on Parke vs Santos Over 2.5 @ -200. 10 units on Brandao straight @ -320. 33 units Markes straight @ -590. 3.75 units Ferriera vs Dollaway Over 1.5 @ -185. 7.3 units Taisamov straight @ -265. 10.3 units Ferriera straight @ -210. Other 1 & 2 unit plays as well. Mostly Overs. Good Luck All!

Ron, that's just shy of 70 units accounted for by the 8 picks you've spelled out...

how many units do you have in your bankroll

if a unit is 1% of roll = you have 100 bullets to fire...a bit more than two-thirds are already in flight...

if on the other hand u've created, say 200 bullets (each 0.5% of roll)...then only about one-third are currently at risk

BTW, thanks for sharing the picks (i'll be using a handful of them SU or to fill out parlays)...and thanks for answering my bet-sizing question

[Ron_Paul_2012]

Ron, that's just shy of 70 units accounted for by the 8 picks you've spelled out...

how many units do you have in your bankroll

if a unit is 1% of roll = you have 100 bullets to fire...a bit more than two-thirds are already in flight...

if on the other hand u've created, say 200 bullets (each 0.5% of roll)...then only about one-third are currently at risk

BTW, thanks for sharing the picks (i'll be using a handful of them SU or to fill out parlays)...and thanks for answering my bet-sizing question

1 unit = 1% of bank roll. Most people only bet between 1-5 units on a play. I play between 1-30 units/play. My pick % is around 70%. However, my bet % is much higher. Most cards I have more than half of my bank roll in play.

[Ron_Paul_2012]

Not enough chalk brah, ur slippin

Nah red shoes. It's just right. And yes I will be reminding you after it cashes.

[Dwil125]

If one unit is 1% of your bankroll for you guys, do you have small unit sizing or just big bankrolls?

[Ron_Paul_2012]

If one unit is 1% of your bankroll for you guys, do you have small unit sizing or just big bankrolls?

Relative question. What do you consider a big bankroll?

[PunisherIND]

And more importantly, what do you consider a big unit?

[Dwil125]

I use $100 units for my bankroll, and will usually make half unit plays. I almost missed the joke there pun.

[Dwil125]

Relative question. What do you consider a big bankroll?

I'd say someone using similar unit sizing as me, except for them there unit is only 1% of there total bank. So like 10k.

[Ron_Paul_2012]

I'd say someone using similar unit sizing as me, except for them there unit is only 1% of there total bank. So like 10k.

In order to get around bet limits one can open multiple accounts (5dimes, Bookmaker, Bovada, etc.). One can also have trusted friends & family to act as proxies in order to get around bet limits.

[TheCalculator]

Unfortunately -- I have not had time to put it in the work this week.

Couple of leans: Rua by dec. Henderson is too tough to finish.
Villante Dec.

[TheCalculator]

Nelson versus Nogueira

I have to say I was shocked when I saw the opening line. I really thought big Nog would come in as a favorite.

This is one of these fights where I only see two main outcomes 80% of the time:


Number 1: Roy Nelson knocks out Nog in the first round.


Number 2: Nog picks Roy apart and possibly finishes him in the third fourth or fifth round or wins by Uni. dec.

Yes I believe is a good chance big Nog will be the first man to finish Roy Nelson in this fight. If Roy doesn't get the win early I believe he will gas or is the end of the second and Nog will just continue to out box him.

Although I don't see Nog finishing him with a clean KO I can see the fight being stopped if the referee has seen enough of Roy being battered. That will depend on who the referee is and how bad Nog pours it on.

THE PLAY: Big nog straight up
Hedged with: Roy round 1 or under 1.5

More plays might come depending on Nog's odds for ITD, TKO or DEC.